Intermission

Intermission 

An intermission in a virus story

No hugs, hands held, no touch

And the loneliness, too much

Isolation: a form of purgatory

An empty church, a lost glory

And we have lost so very much

An intermission in a virus story

No hugs, hands held, no touch

Breaking loose: a gathering furore

Like grinding gears, a failing clutch

Needing an ending, all too much

A choir online sings in glory

An intermission in a virus story

An Occupation in St. John's by Nelson Fauvel

For the 75th Anniversary of Liberation year, I've unearthed another Occupation tale for the reader.

An Occupation in St. John's by Nelson Fauvel

I was ten years old at the beginning of the Occupation and living with my parents and sister at the Hollies, St. John's. My father was an engineer at the Harbour in St Helier, looking after all the machinery and making sure it all worked smoothly. He once built a turbine at home which, situated on the north coast, as we were, would catch the strong north winds and, connected to a car dynamo, would charge up a battery. This we would use for lighting when the electricity would go off because rationing was quite severe especially towards the end of the Occupation.

We used to pack an old oil drum with saw dust with a hole right through the middle This I would light and the heat from the sawdust burning from the inside outwards would be enough to cook our food I used to enjoy doing that We used to keep about twenty-four rabbits for food and it used to be my job to collect the rabbit food from the hedgerows in a hessian sack thrown over my shoulder.

We were lucky in that we were country folk, with family and friends on farms. We could help out in the fields at harvest gleaning the fields for corn so that we could make flour. Town people were not quite so lucky and many of them were very thin by the end of the Occupation.

We lived in the curfew zone which meant that we had to be in the house earlier than those further inland and there was a strict black-out Once; when our curtains were not drawn quite as securely as they should have been, a German soldier knocked on the door, very angry. He fired some shots over the house just to scare us. It was very frightening.

As a youngster I used to go out scavenging around St John's looking for spent cartridge shells etc. Once I found a complete belt from a machine gun. This unfortunately was confiscated one day when the Germans searched our house just in case we had a crystal radio set.

They didn't find the crystal set, but they did find the belt. I've still got a few empty shells in the house somewhere.

We also used to play tricks on the Germans, pointing them out to others when they were supposed to be hiding behind hedgerows while training. We also picked up the leaflets dropped by the Allies giving us the real news of how the war was going. Father used to hide them all in the piano!

From our house we could see the men building the new North road, which the States organised to save men from working for the Germans.

My grandparents set up and run St. John's Hotel which is now just a pub. One day they were given 48 hour notice to quit as the Germans wanted to use the building. All the family chipped in and helped them move all their belongings and furniture to various points around the island, in farms and houses owned by other members of the family. I remember moving boxes right down from the attics to the carts below

My grandfather had built a recreation ground near his hotel with swings and roundabouts and a slide. That used to be a good playground before the Occupation, but during it, the Germans took half the field and it wasn't so much fun anymore.

Our brother was born in 1941 and, as we were much older, we had to look after him a lot of the time. My parents called him Anthony Winston - very patriotic! He had one of those big old-fashioned prams which used to have a secret compartment underneath – very useful if you wanted to get something past the German sentries.

One day when my father was unloading food from a barge at the harbour, he discovered that there was ammunition on board, too. He refused to move it and promptly went home, quite a way from the harbour to St. John's. The Germans, however, followed him and threatened him with deportation for him and all the family if he didn't return. He didn't have much choice, so he went back with them in their "black maria". He was furious after that and we made sure we kept out of his way!

On Liberation Day I was let loose in town. I was working at La Motte Street School at the time, where Philip Le Feuvre (Social Security) House is now. The other young lads and myself were allowed to run around the town, seeing everything that was going on I saw the first sailors stepping off the boat at St. Helier. I was also there when the Union Jack was hoisted at Pomme D'Or.

We also followed the soldiers who were climbing up to Fort Regent to hoist the flag up there, but we didn't go all the way, we decided it was too far' Quite a crowd did follow them though!

Social Distancing, Physical Distancing and Prison Visiting

Social Distancing, Physical Distancing and Prison Visiting

Recently Jersey made a change of use:

"On 1 May the decision was taken to switch to using the term physical distancing instead of social distancing. This is in line with the World Health Organisation’s guidance. The change has been made to clarify that we want people to be able to enjoy social interaction but while maintaining the 2-metre physical distance."

I'm trying to find that guidance, as annoyingly it is not given. I've just been reading a Covid-19 Virtual Press Conference by WHO on 26 May 2020, and that uses the term "social distancing" throughout, although perhaps confusingly it occasionally says "social and physical distancing". But the reason is clear - we keep a physical distance from complete strangers, but a social distance from family and friends, and even work colleagues.

I have seen reference to that guidance promoted by the government elsewhere, for example:

While “social distancing” is still widely used, it may be sending the wrong message and contributing to social isolation. “Rather than sounding like you have to socially separate from your family and friends, ‘physical distancing’ simplifies the concept with the emphasis on keeping 6 feet away from others,” says Dr. Shahida Fareed, psychologist at Geisinger Grays Woods.

But the UK's new maxim is Staying alert and safe (social distancing), and not physical distancing.

Really, despite suggesting that it is sending the wrong message, I think "social distancing" sends the right message, and that's exactly what Gary Burgess asked the other day in his question to the Chief Minister - "when can we hug family and friends again". Until we can, there is that barrier in place, which is a form of social separation, even if we can sit apart and chat (providing we can hear well - not always possible for all of us!).

Social distancing during funerals leaves mourners struggling to connect.

That degree of separation was emphasised recently in a BBC News report from Guernsey, where the grandparents at last were able to hug and hold their baby grandchild. The inability to touch, to hold and comfort someone ill or mourning, to hug a child or a loved one, to hold hands - is keeping us socially separate even if we can see and speak at a distance - which is more like sitting across different sides of a table in prison visiting, with distance maintained and no physical contact allowed. Prison visiting is better than nothing, and our prisons may have advantages of fine weather and outdoor space, but it is still restricted.

"Social distancing" clarifies that we do not have that physical contact, as they now enjoy in Guernsey (where they retain the term "social distancing"), and any social interaction is only at a distance. Physical distancing suggests that is not so important, but it is!

If they are that concerned about mental health, household bubbles like Guernsey's approach would be much better than definition changes, which alter nothing.

I think "social distancing" is a very good phrase, and says exactly what it means, and reminds us - and those in government - that allowing more people to meet at a physical distance still has an element of social separation, even if we have an improved form of "prison visiting.".Of course it is not the same as prison visiting, but it has some of the same restrictions on closeness as in some UK prisons (as seen above).

The phrase physical distancing may pretend that it is not as bad as all that because we can meet people outside - at a distance - but it loses sight of that close human contact which is one of the marks of our species. Social distancing carries much more regarding the impact of that important degree of separation (which does slow the virus down). But while everyone is happy with physical distancing with strangers, I think we all want to lose that social distance between family and friends.

And finally, the change may apply to legislation, and messages from Government, but the term easily “social distancing” is here to stay. Anyone who understands linguistics will know that you cannot remove a phrase that is widespread easily by government directive or changing the use in legislation. Languages simply don’t work like that. 

In like manner, because it took ages to come up with the name Covid-19 for this particular Coronavirus, the noun Coronavirus – which hadn’t been applied in a widespread and popular fashion to other viruses of the same family – became the alternative derivation. Putting Covid-19 in all the government documents across the world hasn’t made the slightest difference to the widespread use of that alternative. Indeed, at the present time, given the context of language, anyone talking about “the virus” (with a definite article) is clearly talking about Covid-19.

References

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergenciescoronavirus-press-conference-25may2020.pdf

https://www.geisinger.org/health-and-wellness/wellness-articles/2020/04/08/13/47/social-distancing-vs-physical-distancing

https://www.usatoday.com/picture-gallery/news/nation/2020/04/01/social-distancing-during-funerals-leaves-mourners-struggling-connect-coronavirus-covid-19/5103278002/ 

Coronavirus Questions on Democracy

Coronavirus Questions on Democracy

Here are a few questions which come to mind....

States Virtual Sittings and Votes

There was trouble with Zoom the other day and at one point it looked as if the States would be “virtually inquorate”, but in the end all the members were able to access the system except one. Now the votes that day had a fairly good margin, and one vote would not swing the balance, but it does raise the procedural question: what happens if the margin is narrow, and the vote might have gone the other way had not some States members been unable to participate?

It is not the same as States members absenting themselves from the Assembly for a vote (as has happened in the past) as this would be a case of them being absented by glitches in the technology. Could their vote be counted later when they could get back online?

In like manner, if they were physically in the Chamber and their voting button malfunctioned, they could alert the Bailiff, and I would imagine their vote would be counted after the electronic count, and added on.

It seems to be unfair to allow democratic legitimacy to depend on the vagaries of sometimes temperamental technology, but what procedural rules are in place?

I hope to get an answer from the Greffier.

Addendum: I have now had an answer

Most Members vote using a link we post in the chat facility associated with the Teams meeting. Some have had technical problems with this, but the majority of members have used it without a problem. In every vote we have held so far, at least 25 Members have voted for or against the proposition using the link, so we have been confident of the outcome of the result. Members who cannot use the link can vote using the chat function; and on one occasion a member has joined us in the Chamber to cast their vote by voice at the time when the vote was open. We gather up all of these non-link votes for publication in the official result.

If there were a close vote, where we did not have a majority voting pour or contre using the link, and where there was doubt about the outcome, we would fall back on a roll call vote. In addition, if any Member felt that the outcome of the vote was in doubt they could request a roll call vote which I am sure the presiding officer would accept unless the request was an abuse of process in some way.

This is very reassuring, and shows that good procedures have been well sorted out by the Greffier and his team. 

Parish Assemblies

One of the recent Parish Assemblies had this included in the notice in the Jersey Gazette after the items listed.

“Due to COVID-19, social distancing is taking place and therefore we request that only the personnel required for the above attends.”

That raises the interesting question of how many can now actually attend a Parish Assembly with social distancing applying, and also how legitimate it is to request people to stay away. This particular assembly had an election for a Constables Officer, as well as several licence applications, and an election for a Centenier.

And also if there is opposition to a licence application, how many people are allowed in to vote? If it is restricted in some way, it may unfairly favour one or other side.

The notice also says:

“In each election, if there are more candidates than vacancies, a poll will be held on Wednesday 17 June.”

I think that’s probably unlikely, but I’d be interested also to know how a poll will be held maintaining hygiene and social distancing.

Bleak House: The Punitive Regime of Richard Renouf

Bleak House: The Punitive Regime of Richard Renouf

“Legal practice gave me experience and understanding of Islanders’ needs. I learned to listen to people, represent their interests and achieve results for them.” (Deputy Richard Renouf, Election Manifesto)

It is notable that there have been breaches of social distancing as regulations on lockdown are relaxed, partly no doubt because, unlike Guernsey, Jersey has not opted for any kind of “household bubbles” on the path.

It is also clear from news reporting in the news media and on social media that groups have gathered outside, and clearly have not been maintaining social distancing. One has only to look at the fact that the area near La Fregate has been sealed off, or that noisy disturbances caused by gatherings were reported near the Winston Churchill Park in St Brelade, to see that this is the case.

The Deputy Health Minister – curiously not the Home Affairs Minister Len Norman whose remit covers policing – has now come up with a big stick to beat those who fail to socially distance. It notes that:

“The requirement to remain physically distant form others will be enforced by means of an offence of wilfully failing to comply with the direction of a police officer to cease to gather at less than 2 metres with someone who is from another household. The penalty is a fine of up to £1,000 (level 2 on the standard penalty scale).”

It notes a number of commonsense caveats, for instance, passing someone on a narrow pavement where social distancing is physically impossible is an exclusion, as is accidental occasional breaching of physical distance between parties, because these only happen momentarily.

Now so, far, well and good, but now the regulations come to the thorny subject of children. And it notes:

“Children are subject to the requirements to follow physical distancing, but the draft Regulations recognise that it is not always reasonable to give them a direction where they are under the oversight of an adult. To accommodate that, Regulation 3 provides that a person in charge of a child commits an offence if they wilfully fail to comply with the direction of a police officer to take reasonably practicable steps to stop the child breaching safe distancing. This maintains the safeguard of requiring a direction to be issued before an offence is committed.”

That makes sense with younger children, but remember that under the current law, a child is anyone under the age of 18. Now it cannot be deemed reasonable that parents should lock up children of 16 or older to prevent them going out alone, unless the Minister has that kind of Dickensian Victorian stern parent (who no doubt would also cane children!). So what provision is made then?

“This does not mean that the offences cannot apply to children. For example, if a child is not under the supervision of an adult, or wilfully fails to stop breaching safe distancing and is old enough to receive and understand a direction, then they are committing an offence. This is intended to manage the situation where under 18-year olds gather together in breach of the restrictions but without adults supervising.”

So to take an example, 16 to 17 year olds, if gathered together in breach of the restrictions without adults supervising can be fined up to £1,000. Clearly some children of that age may have £1,000 to pay a fine, but most will not, and how pray is this going to be policed?

There is no requirement for anyone to carry identity cards, and I’m not entirely convinced that children in such a gathering will be inclined to politely answer a request for their name and address. Perhaps when the proposition is debated, Deputy Renouf will explain this.

Of course, they could be arrested, but if they cannot pay the fine, what exactly is going to happen, apart from criminalising young people, making extra paperwork and court times probably for not much effect.

Indeed, wanting to fine people for breaking the distancing rules is fraught with problems and will in any event not make the slightest bit of difference. A senior UK police inspector was interviewed this on BBC Breakfast Time. He said that a huge number of prosecutions brought with regard to flouting Covid19 rules/guidelines had and were continuing to fail due to lack of evidence and even the wording of the law which because it was hurried had left much to be desired and open to interpretation - which of course defence lawyers have been very eager to exploit.

It should be noted that fines are determined not just on what the law prescribes as a penalty but also by the ability to pay. There is no point at all in fining someone a sum of money if they simply do not have the ability to pay. Perhaps when the proposition is debated, Deputy Renouf will explain this.

I hope the politicians will see no sense in going to the lengths of fines as they are simply not enforceable. The last thing we need right now is to generate resentment and clog up the courts. It needs to be remembered that a fine can only be imposed by a court (or sometimes a Centenier) on presentation of the facts either submitted or admitted by the accused. Fines cannot be imposed arbitrarily by the police or any other authority nor without there being the right to appeal. Perhaps when the proposition is debated, Deputy Renouf will explain this as well as the mechanism of appeal.

The idea of controlling the population - or elements of it - via increasingly punitive penalties - was tested to the limit in the 17th and 18th centuries in the UK, and never really worked. It took a first rank politician like Sir Robert Peel to see that the solution lay not in heavy penalties (which he abolished) but in better prevention, and of course he founded the modern police force. I'm surprised Deputy Renouf does not seem aware of that history.

I am amazed that Deputy Renouf has decided to go down this route. It reminds me of that enjoyed by the lawyers in Dicken’s “Bleak House” for whom mindless litigation is something to do as a substitute for any contact with the real world that the rest of us inhabit.

One Year Ago

One Year Ago

One year ago, the future seemed fine
And the world mostly was benign
Although refugee camps were there
It did not stop people drinking beer
Worlds apart, jetting, holidays abroad
No Thursdays all coming out to applaud
Locked in, coming out to say thanks
War zones distant , cruise missiles, tanks
We lived like gods, eating fine food
Cinema, night clubs, whatever the mood
And no expense spared, consumer land
But it was all a mansion built on sand
And over the year, crumbled to dust
And those treasures came to rust
Lessons learnt: for some perhaps, maybe
Just to see, touch, hug, a new baby
May be enough, simple joys are best
And time enough for our world to rest
Reflect, pause, look deeply at our life
As the virus cuts, uncaring, like a knife
Though all the barriers, reaching all
Teaching us that we may still fall
And we are not gods, not so great
Can yet be struck low by fickle fate
Time to remember, who we are
Time to shine brightly, like a star
Change the world, for better now
Renew again, and make a vow
Look hard and deep, and taking stock
To build afresh, on solid rock
That something come of evil blight
And let our light shine out so bright
Across the sky, across the sea
And there lies hope for you and me.

An Occupation Diary by Dorothy Monckton

For the 75th Anniversary of Liberation year, I've unearthed another Occupation tale for the reader.

An Occupation Diary by Dorothy Monckton

Dorothy Monckton used to live at Portelet Cottage, St. Brelade. She kept a diary during the Occupation. It lists the various rationing and hardships she and her family and friends had to endure during the German Occupation. Here follows a few extracts of interesting stories from 1940

July 29th 1940 - On Monday evening, July 1st, the first Germans arrived by air and were seen going into St. Helier by bus or motor, the taking over to be at 7 am. on Tuesday July 2nd, at the airport.

A good story is told of an ice-cream vendor. who, when at the top of St Brelade's Hill, saw two German soldiers corning along the Corbiere road and waving their arms at him - since he had no idea Germans had landed - he left his ice-cream tricycle and fled down St. Brelade’s Hill in a panic. Returning after some lime with caution. he found his goods intact, only two cornets gone and two shilling pieces lying on the top and no sign of the Germans!

The week after the bombardment we were a using our cars, but only had one gallon a week and the first orders forbade any private cars being on the road. Other orders were the alteration of time – an advance of another hour to European time! So now I have to get up at 4.30 GMT to get to the 8 o'clock service, and one feels like a naughty child being sent to bed by broad daylight!

17th August 1940 - Major Manley told us a good story yesterday. The man who sweeps out the Forum after the last performance is allowed a permit to be out after curfew. When going home one night he was stopped by two German soldiers who demanded the reason for his being out after curfew. He replied that he had a permit, and putting his hand in his pocket to produce it, found that he had left it in his other coat. "Well, your name?" they asked. "Oh, Churchill." He replied. At that they were very wrath and spoke of ''insult" etc.. etc., and hauled him off to the Commandant. "Well, what is your name?" he asked, when the soldiers had explained the insulting conduct of the man. "Oh, Churchill," he replied again. At that everything happened! The Commandant was still more enraged and insulted and the victim was marched to the police station to be imprisoned When there, his outrageous conduct was set forth to the police officer, who then replied calmly, 'I know the man well, and his name is Churchill."

13th August 1940 - About the row at the Forum (cinema in St. Helier) on Sunday night. I hear the audience at the late performances are generally rowdy. but this time the result was a severe censure from the Commandant.. It seems that they cat-call and sing popular songs when bored and on this occasion, being bored by the German news-reel which they could not understand. they started their usual row and singing, and just as Hitler appeared on the screen they happened to be singing "Run Rabbit Run"! At that, a posse of German soldiers got up and clattered with their heavy boots to the chief culprits. Of course, they stopped singing at once but the song broke out in another part. Round trooped the soldiers. and again silence, only to be broken by the yelling of the song at another spot. More energetic movement on the part of the Germans and a cessation of singing there and the "Run Rabbit Run floated down from above in the gallery No wonder the Commandant issued the order that such unruliness must cease or else the picture house would have to be closed'

20th Sept. 1940 - Leaflets - I think three times - have been dropped on the Island by the RAF. So far I have only seen no 1 with part of Churchill's speech of Sept.? details of world-wide gifts for the RAF

the Free French Army. bombing of Germany, help from the US and a message from then King- "The Queen and I desire to convey to you our heartfelt sympathy in the trials you are now enduring. We earnestly pray for your speedy liberation knowing that it will surely come. George, R.I." and pictures from the Star, the Evening Standard, and Punch. the latter of a man being directed on his way by the "Messerschmidt, the two Dorniers and the 1st Junkers". Also facts and figures about the relative strength of the English and German air forces. From all this one gathers that England does not know that we are allowed now to use our wirelesses. 28th Oct. 1940 - Local paper orders all owners of cars to take them into town, where they will be sold to the Germans, for the buying of food from France for us by the States. who will have to pay the owners in sterling, getting German money from the Germans and changing it into French money for the food! The latest Germans who have come over seem a rougher lot, and their driving is furious. witness the constant breaches in the walls and the patches of broken glass along the roads and the state of cars and lorries, with mudguards bucked, etc.

9th Oct. 1940 - Deputy Le Quesne, who is head of the labour department, is constantly being ordered to send men- twenty or fifty, say - to some spot to do a job of work for the Germans. Last week an order came for thirty men to go down at once to the wharf to unload a consignment of flour just come in from France. He went down himself to see about it, thinking that a large lot of flour must have arrived. When he got there he found the ship and in the open hold, thirty sacks of flour only. So, beckoning to two men on the wharf, he took off his coat, and with their help the thirty sacks were loaded up in about fifteen minutes. Meanwhile, the German Marine Officer in charge stood on the side of the wharf wringing his hands in despair and saying, You should not do such a thing, Mr. Le Quesne, in your position. You should not do such a thing, you really should not!"

Evan's Pastilles: A Cure for Coronavirus from 1918?

Made by Evans Sons Lescher and Webb of 56 Hanover Street, Liverpool and 60 Bartholomew Close, London, EC1; and at New York. (1922). It was described as "an effective precautionary measure against the microbes of influenza, catarrh, pneumonia, diphtheria."

It could also be used by singers to help protect their throats. The Stage Year book of 1910 has this recommendation:

Madame Tetrazzini writes : " I thank you for the boxes of Evans' Pastilles sent me, which I find excellent and efficacious," Signer 6. Sammarco writes : "I have been using your Evans* Antiseptic Throat Pastilles for some time past, and I can vouch for their surprising efficacy." Signor Carlo Walter writes : "Having used your Antiseptic Pastilles for some time, I have great pleasure in testifying to their excellent quality and in recommending them without hesitation to my colleagues."

Graces Guide to British Industry notes:

In 1907, the company began to make biological medicines for humans and animals; these included sera and antitoxins for diphtheria, tetanus and meningitis. It worked closely with Liverpool University Medical School, with whom it jointly administered the Incorporated Liverpool Institute of Comparative Pathology at Runcorn. The company took over the Institute as a branch when the latter was faced with closure in 1911. In 1916 the firm established a works for the manufacture of fine chemicals at Runcorn. 

They were at the Pharmacological Exhibition of 1922 as a Listed Exhibitor as "Manufacturers of Fine Chemicals; Drugs; Pharmaceutical and Toilet Preparations; Vaccines; Pills; Tablets, etc.". In 1945, the Company name changed to Evans Medical Supplies, and then in 1959 Name changed to Evans Medical Ltd. There was even, in 1959, a Book Published: The Story of Evans Medical 1809 - 1959'. After that in 1961, Glaxo acquired the company.



T.A.B. Corley's study of "The British Pharmaceutical Industry Since 1851" notes this:

"The British company Evans Sons Lescher and Webb (later Evans Medical Ltd), founded in 1902 by merging earlier Evans wholesale drug firms in Liverpool and London, about that date began to make biological medicines for humans and animals; these included sera and antitoxins for diphtheria, tetanus and meningitis. It worked closely with Liverpool University Medical School, with whom it jointly administered the Incorporated Liverpool Institute of Comparative Pathology. The company took over the Institute as a branch when the latter was faced with closure in 1911."

"Evans’ wartime activities, while not known in any detail, included a crash programme for drugs. By 1916 it had in operation a new and extensive chemical works, where in the following year it was making its own brand of Salvarsan, a synthetic organic arsenical."





So were the pastilles any good? After all they were produced by a chemist with experience in "biological medicines".

To find out, we have to see what was in Evan's Pastilles. The active ingredient was potassium chlorate, 0.03 (drug active ingredient) although eucalyptus was probably also used. It would have been mildly effective for sore throats and coughing, although there is a report in 1905 of a poisoning by potassium chlorate tablets.

The agent is an active antiseptic, although not usually so classed. In the early treatment of diphtheria it first came into prominent use as a remedy for that disease.

The Leeds Museum has a jar with pastilles (not Evans) with a greater proportion of potassium chlorate. It notes:

"The jar, currently on display at Kirkstall’s Abbey House Museum, was the receptacle for potassium chlorate pastilles, commonly used to soothe sore throats in the 1880s. Although marketed as beneficial, the chemical compound they contained could spontaneously combust in the owner’s pocket. Potassium chlorate reacts vigorously and can burst into flames when combined with virtually any combustible material, including ordinary dust and the kind of lint found in pockets."

In 1918 and 1919, there is a massive advertising campaign for Evan's pastilles as a remedy for influenza. 

How effective were they? In terms of treating some symptoms, probably as effective as throat pastilles you can buy from the chemist or Lemsip - they would have relieved some of the symptoms, but not really been much of a cure! Like most of these off the shelf products, they had some efficacy but not as much as their hype suggested.




References
https://www.gracesguide.co.uk/Evans,_Sons,_Lescher_and_Webb
https://americanhistory.si.edu/collections/search/object/nmah_1338263
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/450792
https://www.henriettes-herb.com/eclectic/ellingwood/potassium-chlo.html
https://news.leeds.gov.uk/news/object-of-the-week-exploding-sweets

Random Thoughts on Coronavirus in Jersey

Random Thoughts on Coronavirus and Other Matters

The Press Conference

I’ve just listened to the press conference earlier today. The presence of Dr Turnbull to answer questions made quite a difference. A mediated answer by a Minister – which is what we’ve had for a while – has meant that there is not always clarity, and there can be difficulty answering extra questions, and matters can be “lost in translation”.

What has been missing from the statistics is the background information which Dr Turnbull was able to supply. As the BBC reported:

Six more cases of Coronavirus have been confirmed in Jersey over the weekend. It brings the total number of cases to 303 in the island. Chief Minister John Le Fondré said the jump was expected as the number of tests increased. Dr Susan Turnbull added the criteria for those who could be tested had also been expanded. She said the new cases were all linked to hospital or care home settings, and none had been connected to community transmission. "There's no reason to think that it's likely to have been the relaxation in the last couple of weeks because those have been about increasing outdoor activity.

Richard Renouf indicated that these were caught by ramped up testing, and if I understood him correctly, at least some were asymptomatic.

Why is this important? Because the cases were linked to hospital or care home settings, they were not a result of the exit strategy easing of lockdown, which is very reassuring. But they are not mentioned in the general statistics page, which is where they should be, rather than waiting for a press conference to reveal that information.

They show that the lifting of restrictions has no led to more community transmission, and that is an incredibly important piece of information, without which the numbers themselves lack context. It means that matters are, for the moment, under control, and community transmission must be very close to zero. What would be as useful would be to know the last date at which a case was community transmission rather than a healthcare or care home setting.

Of course there is always the risk that from the care home or community, the virus may be transmitted into the wider community, and that is why the focus of testing should be there, so that rapid isolation of those infected can prevent that. On that score, especially as we have in-house testing, the pending results of 135 are very disappointing, and compares very badly with Guernsey and the Isle of Man. Any delay in test results increases the risk of transmission before isolation. We seem to be back almost in the bad old days of reliance on UK testing.

So far, the press conference was better, but reporting of figures still leaves a lot to be desired.

A Highly Localised Herd Immunity

While the WHO thinks herd immunity is highly dangerous as an idea, the testing and retesting of key health workers and other key workers with a swab test means that hopefully the virus - even when asymptomatic - can be contained. If a large enough number have had the virus in one form or another, that particular cohort will be better placed - it will be a highly localised herd immunity, and it will also protect against future outbreaks.

What is key also is that those who have had the virus should have some kind of identification, as they would be less at risk when dealing with any patients with the virus. So while not a quarantine free certificate, some kind of visible marker would be helpful within the confines of their job.

U-Turn on Antibody Testing 

A Turnaround on Testing

Having called a halt on antibody testing, the Health Minister has done an about turn. As the JEP reports: 

Between 8,000 and 10,000 people in Jersey will be given an antibody test for Coronavirus in the next few weeks, the chief minister has announced. Senator Le Fondré said the island was entering "the next stage" of its testing capacity, after it had initially invited 500 households to be tested for the antibodies.

I’m sure the rapid change of direction must have had something to do with Tambar Park’s private test facility for antibodies, which provided competition to the government, a loss of control over the testing regime, and a reduced rate for health and care professionals. Now they are on the priority list for the resumption of the government scheme!

Poor marks for education 

Under plans being considered by Education in Jersey, classes may go to school on alternate days, or mornings and afternoons, to help keep space between pupils and staff. Those in school would be taught across a number of classrooms, while the other half of the school would learn from home. During a Scrutiny hearing on Friday, Education Minister Tracey Valois also revealed that the introduction of contact tracing technology for pupils was also being considered.

Primary pupils in Guernsey will be able to attend school for two days a week from 8 June, the States has announced. Half of each year will attend on Monday and Tuesday and the other half on Thursday and Friday, with Wednesday used for enhanced cleaning. Methinks Guernsey has a better strategy!

Clearly Guernsey has thought about cross-contamination from surfaces in a manner which Jersey has not! As usual, they have a strategy which shows the hand of their scientific advisors. Ours is clueless. Mornings and afternoons mean that any surface contaminated by contact will still almost certainly still be there in the afternoon. And you are not just talking desks – door handles, push buttons, toilet handles, toilet doors, taps etc.

Alternative days are slightly better, but still not brilliant as the virus can stay active for 24 hours.

Ascension

Ascension

A cold hill top, descending mist
And all was very still, a silent day
This was the parting, a final tryst
The last words they heard him say

Dawn is breaking, the sun is rising
The night fading, shapes take form
This day will be so, so surprising
Early sunrise comes, pleasant, warm

An eagle rising, over valleys and hills
Soaring over the rooftops, so far below
Joy in the flight, wings wide, thrills
On the warm winds, with their flow

Ascension: each told a different story
But each shone with reflected glory

The Scraggy Hen by John Le Bas

For the 75th Anniversary of Liberation year, I've unearthed another Occupation tale for the reader.

The Scraggy Hen by John Le Bas

One day a member of the Honorary Police came and told my father we had to supply a chicken (fowl) to the German Forces. My father, who was elderly, refused, but I said I would take one to them to save us getting into trouble. The collecting point was "La Maisonette" near Woodbine Corner and it was there that I took the scraggy hen.

That evening, the Constables Officer came to say that we could come to collect the fowl again, it was not an official order from College House, just some German Officers having a party. We collected the hen, but a few days later it died.

A couple of weeks later, the Constable's Officer called again and told us we had to supply another chicken and that this time it was an official order from College House. In view of what had happened before. I decided not to take any more chickens to Woodbine Corner for collection by the Germans.

That afternoon at about 4 p.m., two German staff cats drove into our yard at Rose Farm. The first car carried a German Officer and his batman, the second four German soldiers. The Officer and his batman got out and came knocking on the door of our house. 

The batman, who spoke perfect English asked why we had not supplied a chicken as ordered. I told him what had happened on the last occasion. He then ordered the soldiers to get out of the car and round up one of our best cockerels which were roaming free with the chickens in the yard.

It certainly would have been better for us had we obeyed the order and taken them another scraggy hen!

Antibody Tests: A Comment

Bailiwick Express reported:

Plans to examine the entire population for signs of covid-19 have been put "on hold", the Health Minister has confirmed - leaving 150,000 antibody test kits ordered by Government just weeks ago lying on the shelf.

The news comes after the results of a pilot test scheme using kits provided by Healgen were released last week, suggesting that up to 3,300 islanders may have been infected with the virus.

The Health Minister had previously stated that, if the pilot scheme was successful, antibody testing would likely be rolled out to the whole population.

But when Express asked whether this was still the plan at a press conference this morning, Deputy Richard Renouf indicated that the government was no longer pursuing the idea.

He described the results of the pinprick blood test regime, released by Statistics Jersey on Friday, as “helpful and statistically valid”.
I have to say, rather surprisingly perhaps, that I am in almost total agreement with Richard Renouf.

However, I do think they should repeat the random sample again, at least twice more, to see how much variance is thrown up and whether the results match (or come close to matching).

There are also two things the report doesn’t show:

• I assume that none of the random sample had already been tested positive (296 cases) or negative (3,481 cases) for Coronavirus, as the number of tests conducted for antibodies was small. The sample consisted of 438 households and 855 individuals so the probabilities are pretty low even if we screen out children and assume a working population of 60,000. But it would be nice to have that in the report.
• The letter sent out was in English. Was any of the non-response from the population for whom English is not a first language? In fact, were there any language issues? That too would be useful to know.

If the numbers are so low, 3,300 out of 100,000, it throws the whole notion of a “Covid-19 Certificate” largely out of the window. The notion was that if it was high, it could be used as Germany have suggested to have a certificate of immunity and open up the economy. Unfortunately (or fortunately really!) the lockdown has reduced the spread so that is not the case, and it would be wasteful.

I have examined the statistics report with my mathematics head on, and it is very solid stuff – they do stratified weighting to look at total spread. The key worry is that only 63% of those contacted responded. Providing that is a random number who failed to respond, there is no problem, but if it was determined by other factors – and as the report states, “there was a significant level of non-response of those Islanders living in non-qualified accommodation.”

“Whilst the overall response rate to this survey was generally of an acceptable level, non-response from the non-qualified sector was particularly high. This may in part due to the methods employed to engage households in thissurvey and the time constraints imposed on the field work. As a result, weighting by tenure was not possible. Therefore, particular care should be taken when considering the results in the context of this particular tenure category.”

“It should be noted that it is not possible to completely control for non-response error as there may be characteristics that impact non-response that may also impact the prevalence rate in that population. This is a potential source of bias in the result that can be improved by achieving a higher level of response.”

The other thing which has occurred recently is a private enterprise setting up their own testing centre. As the government don't want to waste antibody tests, and the business has agreed to share results in terms of numbers, rather than shutting it down, they should (1) check the test is properly accredited and (2) ensure the test facility is not like to become a "hotspot" of contamination. What you don't want are people showing symptoms turning up with attendant risk!

The Government has taken a line given by the usual official (anonymous) spokesperson who says: "We urge Islanders to be extremely cautious before giving their blood in a setting that we cannot verify meets clinical standards for care."

Well why on earth don't they verify it rather than being moaning minnies!

Deputy Gregory Guida comments:

"This is an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay which detects the presence of two antibodies in the blood. One antibody will be present at the tail end of the illness and the other mostly after recovery. This test can basically tell you if you -have had- Covid 19, in which case, you are -less likely- to catch it again. I don't know from which laboratory these are sourced, but so far the tests available on the market have had about 90% sensitivity and 99% specificity. That means that if you have a negative result you still have a 10% chance of having had the virus and if you test positive, there is a less than 1% chance that you haven't had the virus and something else was detected instead. I believe the test will cost around £76. As less than 3% of the population have had the virus so far, I would only test if you have had unequivocal symptoms and strongly suspect you have been ill with Covid 19."

As noted by the private company, this is a test which is being used by the Australian government,

But for people who have just been told to self-isolate with what appear to be symptoms and who have not been tested, or who have been in close proximity to someone who has tested positive, and want to see if they have had it asymptomically, it is a good idea.

The more data we can get on the spread, the better, and if it provides a degree of reassurance, well and good. The government has said they won't accept any data, but I hope it gets published anyway. Data is the key to understanding risk.

But what should also be realised, both with a private test, and indeed with the government test, is that a positive result does not mean that any lessening of lockdown and hygiene measures should be taken by those testing positive for having had the virus. Just like the wearing of facemasks, a false sense of security must be guarded against.

Jersey’s "Safe Exit Framework" is not Safe

Jersey’s High Risk Exit Approach

Guernsey has adopted a New Zealand-style model of aiming to eradicate it entirely. Jersey has gone in a different direction, which is also followed by the UK, in accepting it will continue to spread and that the majority of people will “need” to get it to build herd immunity with a vaccine likely a year or so away. (Gary Burgess, ITV News)

"To date, there is a view that the virus will have to go through the island in some shape or form, at some point",  John Le Fondre

 “The aim has been to allow the virus to move through the island at a slow safe rate, without putting pressure on the health services.” (Jersey Medical Director, Patrick Armstrong)

Deputy Richard Renouf, the Minister for Health and Social Services, has said Jersey's new plan will ‘mean more people in hospital’ and ‘an increase in the number of deaths’.

And they call that a “Safe Exit Framework”!!!

What did Sir Humphrey say in “Yes Minister” to Bernard about Ministerial documents? “Always dispose of the difficult bits in the title. Does more harm than in the text.”

More Details on Government Thinking

An Assistant Minister tells me (unofficially but in an open forum on Facebook):

“I thought the logic was obvious from the start, but this might benefit from being repeated. Two choices: 1) eradicate and isolate or 2) let the virus run through the population in a controlled way. The problem with 1) is that you need to keep your borders closed for a minimum of 18 months in the hope that there will be a vaccine, that by the time there is a vaccine the virus hasn't mutated and that you are ready to wait until the rest of the world has been vaccinated and/or proven immune before you open up (which won't happen)."

"When I say closed, I mean closed to people -and- goods as the virus survives on surfaces for days. We might be able to get some survival rations by disinfecting them, but that's it, forget about your Amazon parcel. Jersey would look like the Chausey islands by the end of that. A completely autonomous country like North Korea might be able to pull it off but not without starving 10% of their population to death, again. And Guernsey is going for option 2), of course, they're not idiots.”

Of course Guernsey is not going for option 2, for as reported accurately by Gary Burgess, and explained by Dr Nicola Brink and also by Gavin St Piere – interviewed on The World at One. They are going for elimination, with a 14 day quarantine zone for anyone coming into Guernsey, but with the relative small risk of coronavirus with freight movements, which can be tracked and tested and contained with the new 3 hour testing facility and excellent contact tracing..

And the Assistant Minister goes on:

“Less lockdown means more cases. We didn't have many cases to start with and we were too efficient in suppressing the spread, but the risk was very high as the vulnerable population was then completely exposed. Now that we can keep the most vulnerable protected, we need to open up and get more cases.”

“We've reduced numbers too much but that is better than erring on the other side. Now we need 6,000 young and fit people to catch the virus every month.”

I said: So why don't we just get 6,000 young and fit volunteers every month and inject them with the virus!! That in essence is what is being said.

I’m not naming the Assistant Minister, but it is clear that he is only making explicit the official view, which to my mind, is tantamount to criminal negligence by the Government.  

At least he is honest in open in making it clear that this strategy will lead to more deaths – just as Richard Renouf said - Jersey's new plan will ‘mean more people in hospital’ and ‘an increase in the number of deaths’. And consider this: Guernsey's strategy is aimed to keep less people in hospital and reduce the number of deaths.

Richard Renouf clearly intends to unlock enough to get enough cases to use the new Nightingale hospital, as he says "more people in hospital".

Of course, Guernsey's strategy is determined by Dr Nicola Brink, a first class virologist with 54 published peer reviewed studies on virology and 3,267 citations of those. No wonder it's a good one!

What is also very worrying and again show that Jersey does not do their homework, is that the breakdown cases in the UK show deaths in the 18-44 age group is 4.5% of the total. So for 6,000 to catch the virus in Jersey, as the Assistant Minister suggests, would potentially result in 27 deaths. Also there is a good risk of damage to the lungs and other organs, even when people survive.

Controlled Herd Immunity Means More Deaths

Why the States adopted this controlled herd immunity strategy in preference to Guernsey is laid out above, but I am at lost as to how they think it will be better.

Gavin St Pier, Chief Minister of Guernsey, said that: “Our first priority is absolutely protecting the health and lives of Islanders.”

The Jersey view that the virus will have to go through the island, as noted by Health Minister Richard Renouf, will result in an increase in the number of deaths. It is the deliberate surrender of islanders lives and health driven by a misguided ideology of a flattened herd immunity. For some islanders, this misjudgement will prove fatal.

Guernsey has just called its strategy “Exit from Lockdown”.  Jersey has adopted the pretentious title, “Safe Exit Framework”, but as can be seen, it is anything but safe. It will endanger lives and the health of people living here. Despite the bland assurances, this strategy will let people die or be scarred for life, which – as we can see from Guernsey’s approach – could have been preventable.

For as well as deaths, healthy people have ended up with scarring on lungs, kidney damage and other serious conditions as they catch it as well. The statistics on that are solid. Just read the medical journals.

Jersey's Lack of a Quantifiable Strategy

Guernsey goes all the way to phase 6 in their exit strategy, with quantifiable details on what would move to the next phase, or again what would move back a step (which they hope to avoid). That's the scientific approach. Jersey’s "framework" is a vague document, lacking any firm quantification, and very much changing on whim, and as we have seen recently, capable of confused messages about what it actually says.

The only criteria given is this: “Chief Minister John Le Fondre said the timings of each new level would depend on ‘how quickly and how far’ the virus spread as relaxed restrictions exposed more people to infection.” It is vague, lacking any concrete quantification, just as most of the messages coming from the Government are.

And allowing a deadly virus to spread through society to create a level of immunity implicitly means accepting people will die.

When you see the announcement, "sadly another person has died", ask yourself how real that "sadly" is when steps could have been taken to eliminate that risk.

Elimination Versus Suppression

As Professor Michael Baker of New Zealand noted in a recent article in "The Lancet", a suppression strategy like this is "pretty grim"

“The two biggest benefits of pursuing an elimination strategy is that you have few cases and few deaths and you can get business back up and running. The alternative was that we are stuck with the virus and stuck between mitigation and suppression. Suppression is pretty grim.”

"We don't want the public to feel like they are being lied to. Elimination to everyone means that it is gone. But in epidemiological terms, it means bringing cases down to zero or near zero in a geographical location. We will still see cases…but only cases in people who have arrived from overseas.”

Travellers from abroad will be quarantined as part of efforts to prevent transmission in New Zealand.

It is worth noting than an elimination strategy is not the same as an eradication strategy, which is not possible at the moment until a vaccine becomes available.

Germany is now set to reimpose some lockdown measures, after seeing a spike in new coronavirus cases. They are stuck between mitigation and suppression. 

Whatever else the “Safe Exit Framework” is, and however much it is dressed up in flummery, it is not “absolutely protecting the health and lives of Islanders” as a first priority.

It is not really much of a framework, and it isn’t safe, although it will lead to some people sadly exiting before their time. It is morally irresponsible to pursue this when there is a better alternative.

A "Safe Sadly Exit Framework" would be a better description.


For further reading:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/lockdowns-cant-end-until-covid-19-vaccine-found-study-says
https://theconversation.com/we-may-well-be-able-to-eliminate-coronavirus-but-well-probably-never-eradicate-it-heres-the-difference-137991
https://theconversation.com/why-a-trans-tasman-travel-bubble-makes-a-lot-of-sense-for-australia-and-new-zealand-137878

Liberation by Michael Halliwell

For the 75th Anniversary of Liberation today, an article on what it was like as an evacuee during the Occupation, returning to a ravaged Island after five long years.

Reverend Michael Halliwell, Rector of St Brelade (1971-1996) was evacuated to England with his mother. His father stayed at his post at the General Hospital as Consultant Surgeon. Michael wrote on that in his excellent book "Operating Under Occupation: The Life and Work of Arthur Clare Halliwell FRCS, Consultant Surgeon at the Jersey General Hospital During the German Occupation, 1940-1945" (which is still available to buy).

Liberation by Michael Halliwell

As the years rolled by, and occasional Red Cross messages were our only link with home, we began to wonder when it would ever end.

We were away at school when the end did come, and as May got under way it seemed we would not have to wait much longer. My birthday is on May 8 and I hoped for a special birthday present. I had taken a small Jersey flag to school that term and kept it in readiness for the great day. Finally on the afternoon of May 9 we were called to our housemaster's study to hear Mr Churchill. In the middle of his speech we heard him say: And our dear Channel Islands are to be freed today".

Everyone turned and looked at me ; I smiled and nearly wept! Then I went upstairs and hung out my flag. Five years of refugee status were over, and I only wanted to get home.

Within a few days my father got permission to come over for a short visit. Special postcards had been printed and he sent us one with the short message: "Free at last and longing to see you".

Oxford was in the first pure green of early Spring when we did meet, and it was quite a shock for us both. I had left as a boy of twelve; now I was a young man of seventeen already trained in the art of war and only a year off military call up. He was smart as ever but looked so gaunt and haggard that I could only imagine what he had gone through during those five long years alone.

We had to wait for a while before we could get travel permits to enable us to return home. However, in due course the great day came; we travelled up by train to London, spending the night there before going to Victoria Coach Terminal, then by coach down through South London to Croydon Airport.

There the newly refurbished planes of the re-born Channel Islands Airways were waiting to fly us to Jersey and we all had the strange experience of our first flight.

The Island we found was a very different one from the place we had left; it was battered, shattered and down at heel. Most of the trees had disappeared, concrete gun-emplacements littered the shore and there were many ruined houses and hotels.

The British Army were everywhere, clearing up the mess, moving ammunition, and there were many places we still could not visit because of the danger of uncleared mines. One unexpected benefit was that because the Islands had been short of food for a long while, our rations were better than the rest of the United Kingdom.

Shopping was a strange experience, there was English money, Jersey money and German money all circulating at the same time. We soon got used to the fact that the small grey coins with the swastika - 20 pfennigs were worth tuppence half-penny, and we were very proud of our own Jersey stamps printed locally during the Occupation.

Obviously we spent a good deal of time exploring the Island and raiding the bunkers for anything that might have been left behind. Not surprisingly, anything of value had already been taken, but as I was studying German, I was interested to find quite a number of items of German literature lying around which belonged to the German Army library.

Gradually life returned to normal. but it was still a little while before we could travel without passports or "travel permits" as they were called. With the normalisation of life in the Islands. hotels were re-built. lines of fortifications were cleared, guns were tipped over the cliff-sides, the army eventually left and life in Jersey returned to normality

Evacuation by Michael Halliwell

For the 75th Anniversary of Liberation approaching this week, another article, this time on what it was like to be evacuated before the Occupation.

Reverend Michael Halliwell, Rector of St Brelade (1971-1996) was evacuated to England with his mother. His father stayed at his post at the General Hospital as Consultant Surgeon. Michael wrote on that in his excellent book "Operating Under Occupation: The Life and Work of Arthur Clare Halliwell FRCS, Consultant Surgeon at the Jersey General Hospital During the German Occupation, 1940-1945" (which is still available to buy).

Evacuation by Michael Halliwell

As the month of June 1940 wore on, the news got increasingly bad the Germans seemed unstoppable. On June 16th. my father held a crisis meeting at the hospital where he told the staff that they would in all probability soon be occupied. He was sending his family to England, but remaining himself. he hoped they would remain at their posts. He came home and told us, we had a day to prepare, to decide what we wanted to take.

I went through my possessions made a list and showed it to him The day before we left, the sound of heavy gunfire came from the north-east Some said the Germans were raiding Cherbourg, but fifty years later, by the chance of reading a French newspaper report.. I was to learn that the French navy were shelling the German already advancing along the Cotentin peninsular Had the people of Jersey known how close the Germans really were, the panic would have been far greater than it actually was.

The evening sun was low as we drove along St Aubin's Bay to the harbour At Bel Royal. a solitary member of the newly formed Jersey Defence Volunteers looked out to sea. ready to take on the armed might of the Wehrmacht. Along Victoria Avenue. tall posts were being erected to take wires to impede the landing of gliders As we reached the harbour. our boat the "Hantonia" looked sinister in her grey wartime paint and I was glad to see she was fitted with the degaussing girdle which made us safe against the magnetic mines which the Germans were laying in the Channel.

My father kissed us goodbye and went back to celebrate his wedding anniversary in an empty house. surrounded by his children's toys and his wife's clothes. He was soon to face the biggest challenge of his career quite alone.

As we boarded, we were told to draw life-jackets from the storage boxes, we were six children (including the two children of friends) and my mother, so they made quite a pile. As we left the harbour, military vehicles were being unloaded to defend the island, and in the bay we passed a train ferry presumably also bringing more supplies.

I settled down to sleep in an empty life-jacket storage box, and was joined at Guernsey by a young girl: I never knew her name. I slept fitfully and woke with the sun: as we neared Southampton we saw numerous ships taking refuge there including some Belgian cross-channel steamers bearing the names of the luckless Belgian royal family. At Southampton, all was hustle and bustle, not to say chaos, but through the kind offices of the AA, a taxi was waiting to drive us to safety in the depths of the West Country, where we arrived after a four hour drive in the Somerset village which was to be our home for the next five years.

Why Jersey Needs Social Bubbles Urgently

Why Jersey Needs Social Bubbles

Some definitions

Social bubbles are seen as the step forward towards easing lockdowns. Vicky McKeever reports that:

“A social bubble entails allowing people to see a small group of others outside their own household.  This has already been implemented in New Zealand and is said to have been considered in Belgium.”

“A social bubble entails allowing people to form a group with a select number of people they are allowed to see socially outside their own household.”

Outside, doesn't mean, by the way, outside in the physical sense, but inside!

There are dangers in this - as experts have warned, but that applies mainly to countries where cases of Coronavirus are still very active, and an exponential surge could be caused by the increased interactions. That is why they will almost certainly be more successful in jurisdictions where the virus has been successfully contained, and where there is a chance of eliminating it from the resident population.

Where Social Bubbles work best

New Zealand and Australia are prime examples: tight border controls, with 14 day quarantine on any arrivals (which are limited anyway) and an early lockdown which has led to a prospect of eliminating the virus within the borders almost completely, as well as good testing and contact tracing go hand in hand, otherwise we just isolate people further.

From this week, New Zealanders will be free to slightly extend their bubbles of contact to include close family, caregivers and those living in isolation - so long as they are living in the same town or city.

The case of Guernsey

And looking at declining cases, so are Jersey and Guernsey. That is undoubtably why Guernsey has decided to go with the idea of social bubbles and indoor interaction. As the Guernsey press reports:

“In Guernsey the concept of social bubbles will allow people from different households to pair up and meet indoors – perhaps allowing different generations of families to see one another for the first time in weeks. Grandparents will hug their grandchildren again. Or maybe those in relationships who do not live together will be able to visit one another again. But the mixing of households must take place indoors, not outdoors.”

Guernsey have just improved their testing further – and have good contact tracing – and the idea of social bubbles is one which can gradually expand as time goes on. It’s a progressive strategy and one that appreciates that closer contact is beneficial for mental health.

As Guernsey press reports:

“Guernsey households were able to socialise with members of one other home from Saturday and this may be increased in phase three if phase two holds out for another two and a half weeks. Public Health director Dr Nicola Brink confirmed this was the case. ‘We are looking at expanding our social bubble,’ she said. ‘So adding more households to the bubble, we can work out how many more households you can add to the bubble at that stage. ‘Again, instead of opening everything up we’re saying well maybe another couple of households can come into your bubble and your bubble becomes a bigger household bubble and that just starts increasing social connectivity.’”

Social Bubbles and Rt

When making their decisions, scientists and policymakers look to a key metric known as the effective reproduction rate (Rt) - the rate at which the virus is spreading among the population. Guernsey and Jersey currently seem to have a rate below 1.

Social bubbles are a logical way to emerge from isolation. If you limit the people you spend time with, you naturally limit the chances of spreading the coronavirus widely.

The Mental Health Benefits

In a new study led by Oxford University, “Social network-based distancing strategies to flatten the
COVID-19 curve in a post-lockdown world” they comment that:

“While social distancing and isolation has been introduced widely, more moderate contact reduction policies could become desirable owing to adverse social, psychological, and economic consequences of a complete or near-complete lockdown.”

“ Our models demonstrate that while social distancing measures clearly do flatten the curve, strategic reduction of contact can strongly increase their efficiency, introducing the possibility of allowing some social contact while keeping risks low. Limiting interaction to a few repeated contacts emerges as the most effective strategy”

One of the authors, Per Block, said that forcing people to stay at home for such long periods of time wasn't sustainable and brought about problems of its own, including mental health issues.

"There must be a middle ground between all of us staying at home and all of us meeting the people we want in the ways we want to," he told CNN.

"Our main aim here is to give people guidance on how they can structure their social surroundings so that hopefully in a year's time we are there, and not that people at some point just give up completely on social distancing, and that we are back in a second wave by the end of the year and have to start this whole staying at home business all over again."

What happens if you don't have social bubbles?

Jersey has seen more and more cases of people flouting social distancing rules. Instead of social bubbles indoors allowing closer proximity and better for mental health all round, they have social distancing with 2 friends outside. But if you don't have social bubbles, the increased mental health pressure will probably lead people to flout the social distancing outside rules anyway. Social bubbles would ease that and lead to less violations.

What’s the answer? The heavy hand of the law, or would a change of strategy to allow “social bubbles” really be a much better way to go? Would it harm Jersey to take a leaf out of Guernsey's book?

References
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/coronavirus-social-bubbles-might-not-work-in-easing-lockdowns.html

https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/05/06/we-are-looking-at-expanding-our-social-bubble/

https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2020-05-01/blog-there-will-be-no-liberation-day-from-coronavirus/

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2004/2004.07052.pdf