Tuesday, 22 May 2018

Making the Election Count













Different Ways of Counting

There has been a lot of banging on about "no change", e.g. the CTV comments: "With only 2 sitting members losing their seats (Juliette Gallichan and Simon Bree), the mood for change was rather more muted than we thought."

There actually was a lot of change with new candidates who hadn't been in the States in St Martin, St John, St Peter, St Mary, St Clement, St Helier, St Lawrence, St Saviour. Lots of contested elections, and quite a lot of new faces.

So there was a lot of change, but because it didn't involve so many sitting members losing seats - because they tried for Senators and left vacancies, or retired from the States, it wasn't so noticeable.

Vote Team??

How well did the strategy of “Vote Team” work for Reform? On the basis of the statistics, not very well at all.

St Brelade No 2
Montfort Tadier: Current Deputy of St Brelade No 2 (Reform Jersey) – ELECTED 1193
Garel Tucker: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 454

Admittedly she was not well at the start for quite a few weeks, but the same pattern emerges elsewhere:

St Clement
Samantha Morrison: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 596
Cloe Freeman: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 791

No sign of “Vote Team”. Nearly 200 votes adrift.

St Helier No 1

Kelly Langdon: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 441
Yann Mash: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 314
John McNichol: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 435

A degree of convergence between Langdon and McNichol, but Mash is over 100 votes out on a limb.

St Helier 3/4
Julian Rogers: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 631
Mary Ayling-Philip: Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey) 706
Anne Southern: Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey) 790

Closer but Rogers is 70 behind Ayling-Philip who is 80 behind Southern. No real “Vote Team”

Carina Alves: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) – ELECTED 605
Geoff Southern : Current Deputy of St Helier No 2 (Reform Jersey) –ELECTED 628
Rob Ward : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) - -ELECTED 612

Virtually the only example of “Vote Team” working. Very close votes.

Exit Polls - Which One Counted?

The Bailiwick Express Exit Poll suggested that the top two Senators tonight will be Deputies Tracey Vallois and Kristina Moore, but said that "it looks like being too tight to call on who will finish in first place". Below that they placed John Le Fondre and Ian Gorst - he got in but in a lower place. 

After that came Sam Mézec and they got that completely wrong. Then they say: "But the final three places are simply too close to call. In the mix are Senators Lyndon Farnham and Sarah Ferguson, Deputy Simon Brée, Constable Steve Pallett, along with newcomers Anthony Lewis and Moz Scott." .

In the end, one did fall, Simon Brée, but while good at the top end, the errors increased as they went down the line, and it became rather like the celebrated Morcambe and Wise sketch with Andre Previn - all the right candidates but not necessarily in the right order!

Meanwhile, the JEP have pulled the page with their exit poll, and studying it reveals why.

"REFORM Jersey chairman Deputy Sam Mézec is the favourite to top the poll in tonight’s Senatorial election, according to the results of a JEP exit poll."

"He is followed by five candidates in a tight group separated by a small number of votes: Deputy Tracey Vallois, Deputy John Le Fondré, Deputy Kristina Moore, Senator Sarah Ferguson and Constable Steve Pallet. And it may turn out to be a nail-biting night for Chief Minister Ian Gorst who, according to the poll, will finish eighth, a small number of votes behind Senator Lyndon Farnham."

"But just outside the top eight, in another small group with just a few votes between them, are three other candidates: Moz Scott, Deputy Simon Brée and Anthony Lewis."

They put a caveat that: "There is very little separating the top six, and those occupying places seven and eight are not too far behind. And with every exit poll having a margin for error, the exact placing of the top eight is too close to call."

But all told, their exit poll was so wide of the mark with Sam Mézec that it must have been a huge embarrassment for the JEP, especially as their media rivals were so much closer - so no wonder they removed it as soon as possible.

Poster Update - Outstanding Numbers Around

A number of posters are still around. However...

I hear that Fiona O’Sullivan has been unwell, and she tweeted to say that has caused a delay in taking down her posters. I appreciate people are keen to see all the posters down, but we do need to show some understanding of the candidates individual circumstances.

From yesterday morning-there's a Moz Scott one and Ant Lewis poster at Les Quennevais by Waitrose and also a Bree one further down the road. Mezec, Tadier and Tucker one at Corbiere. Also Gorst had one up at Samares Manor yesterday, not sure if it's still there though today.

Sam Mezec still on lampost second entrance Clos de Roncier, coming from Grouville End.

Mike Dun rather amusingly commented:

“These posters will be worth more than Jersey Railway Station nameboards in 50 years time. Grab them now while you can and help pay for your long term care when elections are entirely electronic and the candidates are just holograms.” 

Monday, 21 May 2018

Post Election Review















Three Different Perspectives on going for Chief Minister

The Declared Contenders

It appears that Simon Bree, when his team suggested he should try for Chief Minister, thought it only fair that the electorate should know as well. Ian Gorst declared beforehand that he would be standing for Chief Minister, as did Lyndon Farnham. They stood with the electorate knowing their intentions, and it could be suggested, as Frank Walker did, that in the case of Simon Bree, this cost him votes.

The Unknown Contender

John le Fondré only seems to have made his mind up after being elected as a Senator. He made the announcement only after seeing his result, and the JEP survey in January 2018 was only for existing Ministers. This means the electorate didn’t really know what his intentions were at the time of the election.

The Vacillating Contender

Kristina More provides a third perspective. In June 2017, she said was “amused” by claims that she had a “plan” to become the Island's first female Chief Minister. She said: 'As yet I haven't made a decision about the next election, and I would hope that Senator Gorst will continue in office.'”

The same was true in January 2018, where she kept her options reserved: she said that she was not in a position to comment on her ambitions yet and would make an announcement early next month.

But in May 14 2018, shortly before the election, she said she would be ‘happy to remain’ in her current position, giving the electorate the impression she would not be standing. Yet after in election, proving that even 4 days is a long time in politics, she declared that she was a supporter of Senator Gorst but would not rule out challenging him for the Chief Minister’s job. This has certainly given the electorate mixed views as to how decisive she is, and how easily she can change her mind between polling day, and the day after.

Thank You, Thank You, Thank You

On election night, what would you do if you were standing and got elected or re-elected as Deputy? Possibly celebrate the night away at your campaign HQ with friends and supporters, and wait for the Senatorial election results, while drinking something alcoholic.

Or... you could go out on the dark streets, and put up on your election posters a message of thanks for the electorate to see as they went to work or took children to school the following day. This is what both Jeremy Macon and Jess Perchard did – Jeremy with stickers, Jess with felt-tip – but to the same effect. Isn’t it nice to see politicians who show gratitude like that to their electorate? It was a very thoughtful thing to do, and I’m here commending them for doing so.

Jersey and the Bannermen

I rather like seeing the election posters and banners going up before an election. It gives a degree of excitement to what might otherwise be a rather bland election. But they haven’t all come down – there’s a stray Truscott or two, quite a few Reform ones, several Simon Brees, a Moz Scott or two.

The older campaigners – I was tempted to say “old warhorses”! – are very good at this, and all the existing States members have removed all of theirs, apart from one I spotted – a stray Le Fondré more than half covered by foliage – it’s easy to see why that one was missed. It is disappointing to lose an election, and I can understand people being despondent, but it is a duty to do, so please take down than poster!

As I understand it, after a period of time, the Department of Infrastructure will send people round to take them down – and charge the candidates for their time.

Election Expenses Scandal

At the moment, election expenses can be seen at the States Greffe – during office hours, which does not include lunchtime, and indeed is virtually impossible for anyone working. This is a appalling! I remember when the Register of Interests was likewise difficult to access – now that is rightly online, and so should election expenses be.

It is supposed to be in the public domain, but the restrictions make that almost impossible for most of us to access, so can some kind soul go there and take down ALL the names and totals, and post it somewhere so we can all see – rather than the selected snippets by the media. Or send it to me, and I‘ll do that.

At the present, we can't easily access something supposed to be in the public domain - Election Expenses - and that is a scandal. Can a States member bring a proposition to change this please? A small change,  but one that would be good for transparent democracy.

Sunday, 20 May 2018

Bishop Michael Curry's wedding address











This was one of the highlights of the Royal Wedding. It was so passionate, so motivating, and quite unlike any Royal Wedding address before. The video snippets on the news only have part of it, and when I heard that, I thought that this Bishop was more from America's Martin Luther King side of Christianity than that of Billy Graham, and sure enough when you read the whole address entirely, he quotes from Martin Luther King (an uncanonised American saint by any measures). 

Bishop Michael Curry's wedding address

And now in the name of our loving, liberating and life-giving God, Father, Son and Holy Spirit, Amen. From the Song of Solomon in the Bible, "Set me as a seal upon your heart, a seal upon your arm. For love is as strong as death. Passion fierce as the grave. Its flashes are flashes of fire. A raging flame. Many waters cannot quench love, neither can floods drown it out."

The late Dr. Martin Luther King once said and I quote: "We must discover the power of love, the power, the redemptive power of love. And when we do that, we will make of this whole world a new world. But love, love is the only way." There is power in love. Don't underestimate it. Don't even oversentimentalize it. There is power, power in love.

If you don't believe me, think of a tie when you first fell in love. The whole world seemed to center around you and your beloved. Oh, there's power, power in love. Not just in its romantic forms, but any form, any shape of love. There's a certain sense in which when you are loved, and you know it, when someone cares for you and you know it. When you love and you show it. It actually feels right. There's something right about it. And there's a reason for it. The reason has to do with the source. We were made by a power of love. And our lives are meant to be lived in that love -- that's why we are here. Ultimately, the source of love is God himself. The source of all our lives.

There's an old medieval poem that says where true love is found, God himself is there. The New Testament says it this way. Beloved, let us love one another. Because love is of God and those who love are born of God and know God. Those who do not love do not know God. Why? Because God is love. There is power in love.

There's power in love to help and heal when nothing else can. There's power in love to lift up and liberate when nothing else will. There's power in love to show us the way to live. Set me as a seal on your heart, a seal on your arm. For love, it is strong as death.

But love is not only about a young couple. Now, the power of love is demonstrated by the fact that we're all here. Two young people fell in love, and we all showed up. But it's not just for and about a young couple who we rejoice with -- it's more than that. Jesus of Nazareth on one occasion was asked by a lawyer to sum up the essence of the teachings of Moses, and he went back and reached back into the Hebrew scriptures to Deuteronomy and Leviticus and Jesus said you shall love the Lord your God, with all your heart, all your soul, all your mind and all your strength. This is the first and great commandment. And the second is like it: love your neighbor as yourself.

And then in Matthew's version he added, he said, on these two, love of God and love of neighbor, hang all the law. All the prophets. Everything that Moses wrote. Everything in the holy prophets, everything in the scriptures. Everything that God has been trying to tell the world: Love God. Love your neighbors. And while your at it, love yourself.

Someone once said that Jesus began the most revolutionary movement in human history. A movement grounded in the unconditional love of God for the world. And a movement mandating people to live and love ad in so doing, to change not only their lives but the very life of the world itself. I'm talking about some power -- real power. Power to change the world.

If you don't believe me, well, there was more slaves in America's antebellum South who explained the dynamic power of love and why it has the power to transform. They explained it this way, they sang a spiritual even in the midst of their captivity. It's one that says there is a balm in Gilead, a healing balm. 

Something that can make things right, there is a balm in Gilead to make the wounded whole. There is a balm in Gilead to heal the sin-sick soul. And one of the stanzas actually explains why. They said if you cannot preach like Peter and you cannot pray like Paul, you just tell the love of Jesus how he died to save of all. Oh that's the balm in Gilead: his way of love it is the way of life.

They got it. He died to save us all. He didn't die for anything he could get out of it. Jesus did not get an honorary doctorate for dying. He didn't -- He wasn't getting anything out of it. He gave up his life, he sacrificed his life for others, for the good of the other, for the wellbeing of the world. For us. That's what love is. Love is not selfish and self-centered. Love can be sacrificial.

And in so doing, becomes redemptive. And that way of unselfish, sacrificial, redemptive love changes lives. And it can change this world. If you don't believe me, just stop and think and imagine. Think and imagine, well? Think and imagine a world where love is the way. Imagine our homes and families when love is the way. Imagine neighborhoods and communities where love is the way. Imagine governments and nations where love is the way. Imagine business and commerce when love is the way. Imagine this tired old world when love is the way.

When love is the way -- unselfish, sacrificial, redemptive, when love is the way. Then no child would go to bed hungry in this world ever again. When love is the way. We will let justice roll down like a mighty stream and righteousness like an ever flowing brook. When love is the way poverty will become history. When love is the way the earth will become a sanctuary. When love is the way we will lay down our swords and shields down by the riverside to study war no more. When love is the way there's plenty good room, plenty good room for all of God's children.

Cause when love is the way, we actually treat each other, well, like we are actually family. When love is the way we know that God is the source of us all. And we are brother and sisters, children of God. Brothers and sisters, that's a new heaven, a new earth, a new world, a new human family. And let me tell you something, old Solomon was right in the Old Testament. That's fire.

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin -- and with this I will sit down. We got to get you all married.

French Jesuit Pierre Teilhard de Chardin was arguably one of the great minds, great spirits of the 20th century, a Jesuit Roman Catholic priest. A scientist, a scholar, a mystic. In some of his writings he said from his scientific background as well as his theological one, in some of his writings he said, as others have, that the discovery or invention or harnessing of fire was one of the great scientific and technological discoveries in all of human history. 

Fire to a great extent made all of human civilization possible. Fire made it possible to cook food and to provide sanitary ways of eating, which reduced the spread of disease in its time. Fire made it possible to heat warm environments and thereby made human migration around the world a possibility, even into colder climates. Fire made it possible, there was no Bronze Age without fire, no Iron Age without fire, no Industrial Revolution without fire. The advance of science and technology are greatly dependent on the ability to take fire and use it for human good.

Anybody get here in a car today? An automobile? Nod your head if you did -- I know there were some carriages. But those of us who came in cars, fire, the controlled, harnessed fire made that possible. I know that the Bible says, and I believe it, that Jesus walked on water. But I have to tell you that I didn't walk across the Atlantic Ocean to get here. Controlled fire in that plane got me here. Fire makes it possible for us to text and tweet and email and Instagram and Facebook and socially be dysfunctional with each other. Fire makes all of that possible.

And de Chardin said fire was one of the greatest discoveries in all of human history. And he then went on to say that if humanity ever harness the energy of fire again, if humanity ever captures the energy of love, it will be the second time in history that we have discovered fire.

Dr. King was right. We must discover love the redemptive power of love. And when we do that, we will make of this old world a new world. My brother, my sister, God love you. God bless you. And may God hold us all in those almighty hands of love.

Saturday, 19 May 2018

The Wounded Earth














Although this was intended as a tribute to Jan Hadley, whose funeral was this week, the poem went its own way, and became a funeral poem about the wounded earth. And yet it is still a tribute to Jan, who so loved the wildlife, the bluebell woods, and the beauty of nature, that we need to protect.

The Wounded Earth

O Demeter now so wounded
We pollute and weight you down
Now sadly so surrounded
With plastic waste a crown
Where once was farming glory
Now chemicals malign
Yet, though despised and gory
Her beauty does still shine

Our good earth, beaten, suffered
Was all for profit’s gain
In nitrates, the transgression,
The soil in deadly pain
Our food has lost its flavour
How did we reach this place
Let’s heal the land we favour
Restore to state of grace

So for our greed we borrow
Take from the land, our friend
Weep for this dying sorrow,
For lifeless it may end
It may not go on forever
Sustaining you and me
Please let us never, never,
Neglect our land or sea

Demeter once more dying
She calls for you and me
To break the chains, untying,
Unbinding set her free
With new hope now receiving
Peace coming like a dove
Keep faith, don’t stop believing
And heal the land we love 

Friday, 18 May 2018

The German Underground Hospital - Part 3














In 1971, shortly after decimal currency was introduced, Mr R. Ellington produced this small booklet, price 13p, which was about 2 shillings and 6 pence in old money, or half-a-crown, about the German Underground Hospital.

The research into that has increased, and the site now, under the title "Jersey War Tunnels" provides vastly more history of the Occupation as well as the history of the tunnels themselves. It has far more audio-visual means of telling its story, but back in 1971, this was what visitors to Jersey would have had. It's a very personal booklet, as Mr Ellington not only tells as much as he knows about the hospital from records, but also includes eyewitnesses who he spoke to at the time. It is in that respect, a time-capsule of social history.

The German Underground Hospital - Part 3
by R.M. Ellington


BASIC CONSTRUCTION

The work began at the Meadowbank entrance by drilling a series of holes (see Diagram below) with pneumatic drills. Drill bits of length varying from 1 ' to 9' were used. These drill bits frequently became blunt and had to be replaced or resharpened.

The power came from compressors situated at both entrances, which never ceased to operate twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week and spares were permanently undergoing service in the workshops. When one compressor broke down, it would be immediately replaced by one of the ones which had just undergone overhaul. When the drilling of the holes was completed, the three in the centre would have a charge of dynamite inserted and this would be set off. Then the other eight 3m. deep holes would have their charges inserted, pushed right into the full depth of the hole and exploded. This then gave the rough outline of the tunnel.

Position of Holes for blasting.







The Germans themselves usually took charge of the actual blasting. Both the electrical and fuse systems were employed for detonation, but many failures occurred, as the components came, in the main, from factories in France where many of them were created deliberate duds as part of the French workers sabotage programme.

After the basic outline of the tunnel had been shaped in this fashion, the rest of the work was done mainly by hand. Long pointed steel bars were used to knock down the loose rubble from the roof of the tunnel and picks and shovels as well as some pneumatic hammers were used at the lower levels.

The tunnel floor would then be levelled and concreted with the rails inserted so that the trolleys could be brought right up to the blasting face to remove the rubble. Then the trolleys would be pushed by hand to the entrance where, when enough had accumulated to form a train, they would be coupled to a small diesel engine and driven down to Cap Verd. This is the way the main tunnel was constructed and the same system basically was used for all the galleries leading off this, i.e., wards, wash-rooms, operating theatres, kitchens, administration offices, Commandant's office, Doctors' quarters, etc., etc.

The work progressed twenty-four hours per day, a day shift from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m and a night shift from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. The usual  system for the night shift was to drill the holes and explode the charges.

Because of the fumes, further work would then be impossible on the tunnel for some three or four hours with the compressors working non-stop to clear the air. Usually the blasting took place about 2 a.m. and then the night shift had little more to do until the end of their shift.

When the day shift arrived, the air in the tunnels would usually be cleared and the work of removing the rubble from the previous night's blasting would take up the whole of that shift. Thus progress per tunnel face was only approximately 9' per every twenty-four hours. Many of the slave workers were in such bad physical condition, that often two men would operate one shovel. The trick was to tie a piece of rope around the handle near the head of the shovel.









One man would then push the shovel into the rubble pile and the other would haul on the rope to help lift the rubble into the trolley. Mud-stone is a formation of variable quality, some of it being hard as granite, other parts being almost as soft as mud. This, combined with the comparative inexperience of the labour force and the continual deterioration in their physical condition inevitably led to a number of accidents and collapses. I will refer back to this in more detail at a later stage.

Before the well was sunk inside the underground hospital, water was collected in a sump drawn from the brook almost immediately in front of the entrance. This water supply was channelled into the tunnel by a pipeline running inside a shallow gully, which is still in existence today, covered over by wooden boards to facilitate servicing.

This same gully can also be seen in other tunnels. Its other function was to collect the surface water that rises almost everywhere throughout the construction, and channel it away into Cap Verd.

As the gully is very much more commodious than would be required by either of the above purposes, it seems likely that the Germans intended to put it to additional uses for unknown purposes, although a number of possibilities spring readily to mind.

In all, during the thirty odd months that the Germans worked at the Underground Hospital, well over a quarter of a million cubit feet of  rock, estimated at between 14,000 and 15,000 tons, were removed  from the hill-side and dumped at Cap Verd.

 It would appear from all reports that some 12 to 15 slave workers together with 2 to 3 Germans would be working together on each tunnel face. Concreting of the floors and laying the rails were then the main priority, but this was often carried out in such haste that the rail line was not as straight and level as might have been desired and the trolleys frequently fell off the rails and had to be re-loaded.

A rough calculation will show that at the height of the tunnelling activities, some 150 to 200 people in total must have been at work on each shift taking into account the number of tunnels being worked on simultaneously.

Feeding arrangements were fairly simple. A field kitchen drawn by two horses would haul a vast cauldron of soup up to the site: a soup consisting mainly of cereals, i.e., peas, lentils, barley, but with very little meat content, which they only got providing their work was satis- factory. This, plus a loaf per week, was virtually the staple diet of the slave workers. From all reports, it would appear that the German Todt Organisation workers were little better off, especially in the latter stages of the war when they even resorted to collecting stinging nettles for making soup for themselves.

Obviously, under these arduous conditions, the wastage rate of slave workers was rather high, but as the Germans kept the details of this very much to themselves, no numerical evaluation is possible.
But as the stream of replacement slave workers was virtually endless, this never tended to retard progress.

As has been stated earlier, the only Germans inside the tunnel were OT men and if-ally incident of misbehaviour or crime occurred among the slave workers, then the Military Police were called in to deal with it, even such trivial affairs as one slave worker stealing from another.

One of my informants was a man called Con Donoghue. After fiddling the occupation forces at every opportunity, he was seriously suspected, but nothing was ever proved against him. It was said that whilst driving a lorry on the airport construction, the said lorry was producing approximately 4 miles per gallon. By his own reckoning, he was thus able to "appropriate" anything from 4 to 6 gallons of petrol in a good working day. 1-le might well have been sent-to Germany to a ' concentration camp and, in fact, it seems that at one stage, his name was on the list for the next shipment (a member of the local police actually saw his name on the list). But partially due to the lack of concrete evidence against him and also because after the landings in Italy, the sea traffic between the Channel Islands and the French main- land was reduced to a minimum, he was reprieved.

As he spoke German and French, as well as English, he became driver and interpreter for Major Teischamann. (See advert 2 in appendix) It was from him that I obtained the details of the way the blasting was carried out.

Some clarification of the general situation would appear appropriate at this point. The Germans' general attitude was decidedly "vel- vet glove over iron fist". This applied to their relations all over the Island.

Several OT Officers set themselves up as genuine building contractors here in Jersey and advertised for local labour. They offered wages higher than the local jobs could pay, plus the inducements of extra rations which were worth even more than the extra money. The States of Jersey Labour Department, for instance, by order of the occupation Commandant, were allowed to offer a single man no more than £2.10s. 0d. to £2. 15s. 0d. per week, but the German contractors were offering 75d per hour for skilled labour, which for a 52 hour week would work out at nearly £3. 14s. 0d., not taking into consderation the extra rations. (see Advert 1 in Appendix).

This, of course, refers only to voluntary labour, but as it turned out, those of the local population who were compelled to work for the Germans compulsorily also got the benefit of the higher rates and extra rations. -

Although the German Todt Organisation members worked side by side with both slave workers and contract labour in the Underground Hospital, there was never any question about who was the boss. The Germans themselves worked very hard, but expected the same of the others. If the rate of work or the behaviour was not up to scratch, the Germans would hit out at the slave workers with shovel handle, boot or any other object which happened to be handy. As with all categories of people, the Germans differed very much in their approach from man to man. Some were harsh and brutal, some reasonable and humane.

According to Con Donoghue, not all slave workers were left in the rubble of the collapsed tunnels as is generally supposed. I now quote direct from his commentary.
  
"I do not deny that the Germans were our enemies at all times, but I do not feel that people should be condemned for something they did not do. I arrived on the site one morning when part of one of the tunnels had fallen in and three men had been killed. They dug into the rubble as fast as possible to get the bodies out, wrapped them in canvas and took them away by lorry to be buried. The same thing happened again in a later fall when 22 workers were killed and according to the lorry driver, they too were taken out in the same manner and buried in a corner of St. Saviour's Churchyard. Teischmann was a very humane man. He had a stream of tears down his face, even as though they were his own children".




Thursday, 17 May 2018

Election Results 2018











Below are my guesses together with the actual results.

Please note that there are sometimes more "front runners" than seats. This was deliberate. I was choosing those who I think stood a good chance of being elected, but not all of them can be! I hedged my bets!

Guesses were made by studying candidates vote.je manifesto, any other manifesto or website, the JEP QandA, any other QandA, and listening to "Election Call" on BBC Radio Jersey. These were NOT endorsements of any candidates, just guesses as to who will get in. Names are also in alphabetical order by surname.

Accuracy of Guesses:
As can be seen, with regard to the Deputies, I have managed a fairly high degree of accuracy except for St Helier District 3 and 4, where I was only half right. I managed to get the Senators right, and two of the runners up. I think overall I did very well as a political pundit!

Reform:
There seems to have been something of a backlash against Reform. They only succeeded big time in St Helier No 2, while St Brelade No 2 saw the status quo, although Graham Truscott's increased majority may be an anti-Reform backlash too. They had no success in St Lawrence or St Saviour.

Within St Helier, putting Reform against centre-left candidates, as in St Helier No 1, seems to have been a strategy that backfired. I would have thought they would need 8 to 10 to make a "breakthrough" and this has not happened. Meanwhile, Sam Mezec scrapped into last place as Senator.

First-Past-The-Post also didn't help. Where there were multiple candidates for a limited number of seats, the split vote effect world have worked against them. That said, even under Single Transferable Vote, they would still have lost in a number of districts, including St Saviour No 3.

Reform now have 5 seats, an improvement, but not a significant one. This is not yet the time for Party politics.

Election Jokes
Best line on radio: "Sarah Ferguson is struggling in the election, perhaps she needs a lifeboat to help her out"
Went to vote. A lady was at the desk handing out election slips. I said "I'll take two raffle tickets please"


The Newbies
In the Senators, Newbies Moz Scott and Anthony Lewis didn't get in but did creditably well - I had them as Close Runners-Up, while Simon Bree bombed out - I think making the announcement about going for Chief Minister probably didn't help his campaign one bit.

Gerard Baudains was a runner up, but not a close one. I thought Gino would be last, but as it turned out Stevie Ocean came bottom.

In the Deputies, Tony Pike and Inna Gardiner both did creditably well.

Biggest Surprise
Simon Bree doing so badly. Saying he would go for Chief Minister probably lost votes. The other surprise was on BBC Radio, where commenting on election, Jackie Hilton made a surprise announcement. 4 years she will be back... to stand as Constable against Simon Crowcroft!!

Recount?

123 votes seperated Moz Scott from Sam Mezec, far less than the last recount with Sarah Ferguson and Philip Ozouf. However, that one revealed no result more than 20 votes off its original (most far less), and even allowing for errors in Moz's favour both ways, that would give 40, or if it was a bad night for counting, 50 votes. I don't think a recount is worth while.
Breaking News: Moz Scott says she will not call for a recount.
https://www.vote.je/election-results-2014/


Senators (8 seats)
Potential candidates who will go for Chief Minister if elected shown by *

Front Runners (9)
As I expected, 8 of those I listed were elected Senators.
Simon Brée : Current Deputy of St Clement * - Not Elected 10529
Lyndon Farnham : Current Senator * - ELECTED 12,417 - 8.13%
Sarah Ferguson : Current Senator - ELECTED 11,297 - 7.40%
Ian Gorst : Current Senator * - ELECTED 12,068 - 7.90%
John Le Fondré : Current Deputy of St Lawrence * - ELECTED 14,204 - 9.30%
Sam Mézec : Current Deputy of St Helier No 2 (Reform Jersey) * - ELECTED 11,007 - 7.21%
Kristina Moore : Current Deputy of St Peter * - ELECTED 15,292 - 10.02%
Steven Pallett : Current Connétable of St Brelade - ELECTED 12,114 - 7.93%
Tracey Vallois : Current Deputy of St John - ELECTED 15,518 - 10.16%

Close Runners-Up
Gerard Baudains : Previous States Member 6341
Anthony Lewis : New Candidate10709
Moz Scott : New Candidate 10884

The Last Post
Frank Luce : New Candidate 2279
Philip Maguire : Previous Candidate 976
Stevie Ocean : Previous Candidate 953
Gordon Troy : New Candidate 4695

The Twilight Zone
Gino Risoli : Previous Candidate 1401

St Brelade No 2 (2 seats) 
Front Runners (2)
As I expected, the existing Deputies held on, but Tony Pike did creditably well
Montfort Tadier : Current Deputy of St Brelade No 2 (Reform Jersey) – ELECTED 1193
Graham Truscott : Current Deputy of St Brelade No 2 – ELECTED 1506

Seconds
Tony Pike : New Candidate 1146
Garel Tucker : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 454

St Clement (2 seats) 
Front Runners (2)
As I expected
Lindsay Ash : New Candidate – ELECTED 1286
Susie Pinel : Current Deputy of St Clement – ELECTED 1499

Seconds
Samantha Morrison : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 596
Cloe Freeman : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 791
Philip Renouf : New Candidate 578

St Helier No 1 (3 seats) 
Front Runners (3)
As I expected
Russell Labey : Current Deputy of St Helier No 1 – ELECTED 833
Judy Martin : Current Deputy of St Helier No 1 – ELECTED 871
Scott Wickenden : Current Deputy of St Helier No 1 – ELECTED 682

Seconds
The ridiculous "Digger" banner probably lost Mr Lagadu votes. Reform's candidates here were very weak.
Jason Lagadu : New Candidate 274
Kelly Langdon : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 441
Yann Mash : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 314
John McNichol : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 435

The Last Post
Not last, I got this one wrong, but still right that he was not re-elected.
Nick Le Cornu : Previous States Member 364

St Helier No 2 (3 seats) 
Front Runners (4)
As I expected - Linda Dodds 11th hour poster campaign was too late in the day, but this is also a Portugese heartland, and Carina Alves probably helped boost all Reform's votes.
Carina Alves : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) – ELECTED 605
Linda Dodds : New Candidate 466
Geoff Southern : Current Deputy of St Helier No 2 (Reform Jersey) –ELECTED 628
Rob Ward : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) - -ELECTED 612

Seconds
Geraint Jennings : Previous Candidate 428
Bernard Manning : Previous Candidate 456

End of the Line
As I expected I was right here too
Barry Shelton : Previous Candidate 404

St Helier No 3 and 4 (4 seats)
Front Runners: (4)
Well I was very wrong here. A good showing from Inna Gardiner though.
Inna Gardiner : New Candidate 909
Mike Higgins : Current Deputy of St Helier No 3 and 4 – ELECTED 1190
Mary Le Hegarat : New Candidate – ELECTED 1173
Julian Rogers : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 631

Seconds:
Stephen Ahier : New Candidate – ELECTED 1020
Mary Ayling-Philip : Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey) 706
Jacqui Carrel : New Candidate 861
Richard Rondel : Current Deputy of St Helier No 3 and 4 – ELECTED 1404
Anne Southern : Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey) 790

St John (1 seat) 
Front Runner (1):
As I expected 
Trevor Pointon : New Candidate – ELECTED 609

Second:
Nigel Philpott : New Candidate 537

St Lawrence (2 seats) 
Front Runners (2):
As I expected, but thought Guida would top poll
Gregory Guida : New Candidate (probably top poll) – ELECTED 1194
Kirsten Morel : New Candidate – ELECTED 1499

Second
Sarah Westwater : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 299

St Mary (1 seat) 
Front Runner (1):
As I expected 
Robert Johnson : Current Deputy of St Mary – ELECTED 495

Second:
Mark Baker : New Candidate 309

St Ouen (1 seat) 
Front Runner (1):
As I expected 
Richard Renouf : Current Deputy of St Ouen – ELECTED 1338

Falling off the Cliff
Cliff Le Clercq : Previous Candidate 218

St Peter (1 seat) 
Front Runner (1):
As I expected 
Rowland Huelin : New Candidate -ELECTED 991

Second:
Sean Creavy : New Candidate 553

St Saviour No 1 (2 seats) Front Runners (2):
As I expected 
Jeremy Maçon : Current Deputy of St Saviour No 1 – ELECTED 793
Kevin Pamplin : New Candidate – ELECTED 509

Seconds:
Isabella Lewis : Previous Candidate 395
Fiona O’Sullivan : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 339

St Saviour No 2 (2 seats) Front Runners (2):
As I expected 
Louise Doublet : Current Deputy of St Saviour No 2 – ELECTED 874
Kevin Lewis : Current Deputy of St Saviour No 2 – ELECTED 858

Seconds:
Jaime Boylan : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 334

St Saviour No 3 (1 seat) Front Runners (4 and too difficult to choose, all good!)
Too hard to call, but Jess was well ahead of others. Another very bad result for Reform.
Tom Coles : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 100
Andrew Le Quesne : New Candidate 161
Mary O’Keefe-Burgher : Previous Candidate 266
Jess Perchard : New Candidate – ELECTED 528

Trinity (1 seat) 
Front Runner (1):
As I expected 
Hugh Raymond : Previous Candidate 966

Last Post:
David Richardson : Previous Candidate 210

St Mary 
Anyone’s Guess (1):
Actually this was a surprise
Juliette Gallichan : Current Connétable of St Mary 398
John Le Bailly : Previous States Member – ELECTED 423

Reform Candidates
Sam Mezec - 11,007 - 7.21%
Tadier, Monty – 1,193 (elected)
Alves, Carina – 605 (elected)
Southern, Geoff – 628 (elected)
Ward, Robert – 612 (elected)

Senators in Graphics
(courtesy of the BBC)

Wednesday, 16 May 2018

Election Guesses


Here are my election guesses.

These are guesses for who will be a "front runner", who will be second, and who is right at the bottom.

Please note that there are sometimes more "front runners" than seats. This is deliberate. I'm choosing those who I think stand a good chance of being elected, but not all of them can be! If I think they stand a fairly even chance, I'll list all those who will do so. I'm hedging my bets!

These are NOT endorsements of any candidates, just guesses as to who will get in

Names are also in alphabetical order by surname.

Senators (8 seats) 

Potential candidates who will go for Chief Minister if elected shown by *

Front Runners (9)
Simon Brée : Current Deputy of St Clement *
Lyndon Farnham : Current Senator *
Sarah Ferguson : Current Senator
Ian Gorst : Current Senator *
John Le Fondré : Current Deputy of St Lawrence *
Sam Mézec : Current Deputy of St Helier No 2 (Reform Jersey) *
Kristina Moore : Current Deputy of St Peter *
Steven Pallett : Current Connétable of St Brelade
Tracey Vallois : Current Deputy of St John

Close Runners-Up
Gerard Baudains : Previous States Member
Anthony Lewis : New Candidate
Moz Scott : New Candidate

The Last Post
Frank Luce : New Candidate
Philip Maguire : Previous Candidate
Stevie Ocean : Previous Candidate
Gordon Troy : New Candidate

The Twilight Zone
Gino Risoli : Previous Candidate

St Brelade No 2 (2 seats)
Front Runners (2)
Montfort Tadier : Current Deputy of St Brelade No 2 (Reform Jersey)
Graham Truscott : Current Deputy of St Brelade No 2

Seconds
Tony Pike : New Candidate
Garel Tucker : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)

St Clement (2 seats)
Front Runners (2)
Lindsay Ash : New Candidate
Susie Pinel : Current Deputy of St Clement

Seconds
Samantha Morrison : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)
Cloe Freeman : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)
Philip Renouf : New Candidate

St Helier No 1 (3 seats)
Front Runners (3)
Russell Labey : Current Deputy of St Helier No 1
Judy Martin : Current Deputy of St Helier No 1
Scott Wickenden : Current Deputy of St Helier No 1

Seconds
Jason Lagadu : New Candidate
Kelly Langdon : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)
Yann Mash : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)
John McNichol : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)

The Last Post
Nick Le Cornu : Previous States Member

St Helier No 2 (3 seats)
Front Runners (4)
Carina Alves : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)
Linda Dodds : New Candidate
Geoff Southern : Current Deputy of St Helier No 2 (Reform Jersey)
Rob Ward : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)

Seconds
Geraint Jennings : Previous Candidate
Bernard Manning : Previous Candidate

End of the Line
Barry Shelton : Previous Candidate

St Helier No 3 & 4 (4 seats)
Front Runners: (4)
Inna Gardiner : New Candidate
Mike Higgins : Current Deputy of St Helier No 3 & 4
Mary Le Hegarat : New Candidate
Julian Rogers : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)

Seconds:
Stephen Ahier : New Candidate
Mary Ayling-Philip : Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey)
Jacqui Carrel : New Candidate
Richard Rondel : Current Deputy of St Helier No 3 & 4
Anne Southern : Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey)

Puffin's Last Plaice:
Guy de Faye : Previous States Member

St John (1 seat)
Front Runner (1):
Trevor Pointon : New Candidate

Second:
Nigel Philpott : New Candidate

St Lawrence (2 seats)
Front Runners (2):
Gregory Guida : New Candidate (probably top poll)
Kirsten Morel : New Candidate

Second
Sarah Westwater : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)

St Mary (1 seat)
Front Runners (1):
Robert Johnson : Current Deputy of St Mary 

Second:
Mark Baker : New Candidate

St Ouen (1 seat)
Front Runner (1):
Richard Renouf : Current Deputy of St Ouen

Falling off the Cliff
Cliff Le Clercq : Previous Candidate

St Peter (1 seat)
Front Runner:
Rowland Huelin : New Candidate

Second:
Sean Creavy : New Candidate

St Saviour No 1 (2 seats)
Front Runners (2):
Jeremy Maçon : Current Deputy of St Saviour No 1
Kevin Pamplin : New Candidate

Seconds:
Isabella Lewis : Previous Candidate
Fiona O’Sullivan : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)

St Saviour No 2 (2 seats)
Front Runners (2):
Louise Doublet : Current Deputy of St Saviour No 2
Kevin Lewis : Current Deputy of St Saviour No 2

Seconds:
Jaime Boylan : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)

St Saviour No 3 (1 seat)
Front Runners (4 and too difficult to choose, all good!)
Tom Coles : New Candidate (Reform Jersey)
Andrew Le Quesne : New Candidate
Mary O’Keefe-Burgher : Previous Candidate
Jess Perchard : New Candidate

Trinity (1 seat)
Front Runner (1):
Hugh Raymond : Previous Candidate

Last Post:
David Richardson : Previous Candidate

St Mary
Anyone’s Guess (1):
Juliette Gallichan : Current Connétable of St Mary (just tipping ahead but not fly-tipping)
John Le Bailly : Previous States Member


Even More Election Odds and Ends













Even More Election Odds and Ends

The Last Legacy: A Movie (costing £200,000) starring Outgoing Minister Alan Maclean

The States of Jersey Development Company will be building flats on the waterfront in partnership with a French company, signed off by the outgoing Minister. Once the nomination day takes place, it is agreed that Ministers will carry out their duties but not make major policy decisions.

This decision by Alan Maclean, which binds the new Assembly, shows complete contempt for the electorate. He states it is just "business as usual" and there would just be a delay before the new Treasury Minister approved it, but there is no reason to believe this at all. There is no indication that he has consulted any of the Senatorial front runners, for example. There is no indication this move was afoot, or if it was, it was kept very quiet from the general public.

Deputy John Young was quite right when he commented that the number of "important changes" being made were a cause for concern in the run-up to the election: "These things are absolutely not open and transparent, they are really buried away and difficult to find. They're published late and I think, generally speaking, it's come as a surprise to me and, I believe, the public that so many are there."

It is not the first time. In 2008, Deputy Guy de Faye, outgoing TTS Minister, having lost his seat, managed to sign off on the new Incinerator during the interval between the election and the new States taking their oaths of office (while he was effectively still in office!). 

This deal was signed so quickly the movement in the financial markets was not taken into account and hedged against, causing a significant increase in cost. It was another outrageous action when the government should be just in "caretaker" mode.

A Strange Endorsement

JAG (Jersey Action Group) is endorsing 8 candidates for Senator without asking their approval.

Simon Bree writes: "I have no direct connection nor relationship with The Jersey Action Group. The fact that they have chosen me as one of "our senators" is solely their choice, and I can confirm that I was not contacted by them prior to their posting, requesting my permission to do so. That said it is purely up to them which candidates they may choose to support, as it is any other person's right to do so."

But while it is within their right to do so, by saying "our Senators" rather than "the Senators we endorse" it suggests a cosy familiarity which does not exist.

Midsomer Murders

The episode on Sunday showed a "death by drone". Methinks some of those standing for Senator would be well qualified in that regard. I was listening to Election Call with Gino Risoli taking part, and not only does he drone on and on, he also interrupted other candidates and the presenter. That was just plain rude. Taking turns and listening is something a politician really needs to do, and he needs to work on those skills.

NIMBY Award

Awarded to Susie Pinel, Deputy of St Clement, who declared it was a shame the Hospital had not gone on the People's Park in St Helier, a proposal she supported.

Best Election Call

St Saviour No 3. All of the candidates came across extremely well, and indeed shared a lot of commonality in outlook, and even praised each other's ideas. It's a pity all of them couldn't get elected, but there's only one seat.

Nasty Tricks

One of the earliest examples of internet nastiness surfaced in 2008, when someone got hold of the domain name for Senator Mike Vibert, which he had allowed to lapse over the 6 years since his last election, and set up a fake website as a deliberate attempt to smear him.

Now it has to be said that, in my opinion, since leaving the ranks of Deputy for the lofty heights of Senator, Mike had become progressively detached from the electorate, often expressed in quite arrogant and offhand ways.

Nevertheless, this was a calculated piece of mischief, and whether or not it had an effect, it was the first sign of nastiness that was to come out in more force in this election.

Online media fakery is very easy to do, but what is perhaps the most blatant and nasty attempt is the production of a one page fake Reform flyer which is in essence a character assasination of Geoff Southern. It seems that hundreds of these have been printed and put though letter boxes in St Helier No 2.

And the racists are also out. There is a lot of fake news being shared out there by Jersey racists (yes they do exist) trying to undermine Carina, who if elected would become Jersey’s first ever Portuguese speaker and dual Portuguese-British national. What is excellent is also the way she is explaining Jersey's political system to the Portuguese community in their own language. There have been translations of manifestos, but this is the first real engagement of this kind. I hope it pays dividends.

A Blessing or a Curse

I have been reliably been informed that one of the election posters for a Senator has seen a seagull descending, dive bombing the poster, and leaving a little present on it. 

Is this a sign from heaven? It’s not quite in the same league as a dove descending on Jesus, is it! Kindness prevents me from telling which man the seagull took a dislike to.

As far as I am aware, this is not a nasty trick. No one has been training seagulls to drop bird shit on candidate's posters.... unless it was an act of revenge by seagull Gulliver on being shipped to Les Minquiers.

They said it first...

Lindsay Ash begins his manifesto: "Not all fairy tales begin with ‘Once upon a time’, some begin with ‘When I’m elected’."

But it didn't originate with him. It came from Edythe Held and the first mention seems to have been November 1975, in Florida Today

This doesn't really tell you anything important, but I just thought my readers might like to know.

Some Levity

Breaking News....


Kevin Pamplin demonstrates how eco-friendly he is by supporting Puffin!