Does God Exist?

Looking for a "punchy" blog title for today, I settled on the above. But as readers of this blog may well suspect, I am not going to come out with an answer one way or another! Instead, what I want to do is to explore the way in which I think belief or in God (or gods) is unprovable, one way or the other, and the kind of logic which might apply if we are looking at this.

So here are a few thoughts on what is provable or not, and why we have to make assumptions, and why reductionism can be bad for you (and not scientific anyway).

Even a scientific basis has to take for granted "unprovables", or axioms. If one "steps back" to the metaphysical assumptions that we make about the world, we can see that there are various assumptions that are simply taken for granted. Chesterton put this better than me:

Every sane man believes that the world around him and the people in it are real, and not his own delusion or dream. No man starts burning London in the belief that his servant will soon wake him for breakfast. But that I, at any given moment, am not in a dream, is unproved and unprovable. That anything exists except myself is unproved and unprovable.

All sane men believe that this world not only exists, but matters. Every man believes there is a sort of obligation on us to interest ourselves in this vision or panorama of life. He would think a man wrong who said, "I did not ask for this farce and it bores me. I am aware that an old lady is being murdered down-stairs, but I am going to sleep." That there is any such duty to improve the things we did not make is a thing unproved and unprovable.

All sane men believe that there is such a thing as a self, or ego, which is continuous. There is no inch of my brain matter the same as it was ten years ago. But if I have saved a man in battle ten years ago, I am proud; if I have run away, I am ashamed. That there is such a paramount "I" is unproved and unprovable. But it is more than unproved and unprovable; it is definitely disputed by many metaphysicians.

Lastly, most sane men believe, and all sane men in practice assume, that they have a power of choice and responsibility for action.

Now that does not mean that "God exists" is an assumption like those Chesterton considers, because he is looking at universals which can be taken as a starting point.

But working on this kind of thinking, we can see an analogy with Euclidean geometry, which itself proceeds from axioms (which are stated in terms of constructions).

1 To draw a straight line from any point to any other.
2 To produce a finite straight line continuously in a straight line.
3 To describe a circle with any centre and distance.
4 That all right angles are equal to each other.
5 That, if a straight line falling on two straight lines make the interior angles on the same side less than two right angles, if produced indefinitely, meet on that side on which are the angles less than the two right angles.

To work with Euclidean geometry, one has to start with axioms, but the ancients - including Euclid - spent a good deal of time seeing if there was a way in which (5) which relates to parallel and non-parallel lines can be removed from the list. We now know that is not the case, and geometries can be constructed where (5) does not apply - non-Euclidean geometries.

Gödel's first incompleteness theorem showed that it is not possible to prove or disprove the parallel postulate from the remaining axioms.

I would argue that looking at the existence or non-existence of God is axiomatic in the same way as the parallel postulate, where science cannot provide a decision one way or another. It is beyond the scope of scientific proof. But then so are a good many things, which as Chesterton pointed out, we have to take for granted.

To reduce matters to science is the approach of logical positivism, which your friend seems to be veering towards. In this approach:

1 A proposition is meaningful only if it is verifiable.
2 A proposition is verifiable only if it can be proved or disproved or can be deduced from other propositions which are verifiable.
3 Statements that are not verifiable are cognitively meaningless although they may possess emotive meaning.
4 To argue about truth or falsity of statements that do not permit verification is a waste of time. Examples of metaphysical statements are 'there are angels' or 'the devil does not exist.' These sentences cannot be proved or disproved, they are meaningless.

This position of course has the great advantage of removing whole swathes of mathematics, such as the parallel postulate (which cannot be verified or deduced from other propositions)! It also has the wonderful plus of not being able to be verified itself; this it cuts off its own branch, because it is a set of metaphysical postulates which are not themselves verifiable according to the rules which they give for verifying rules - which was partly the basis of Karl Popper's critique.

Popper set out instead to differentiate between science and non-science, not science and nonsense (as the Positivists did), and noted that (in Conjectures and Refutations) that

And as for Freud's epic of the Ego, the Super-ego, and the Id, no substantially stronger claim to scientific status can be made for it than for Homer's collected stories from Olympus. These theories describe some facts, but in the manner of myths. They contain most interesting psychological suggestions, but not in a testable form. At the same time I realized that such myths may be developed, and become testable; that historically speaking all-or very nearly all-scientific theories originate from myths, and that a myth may contain important anticipations of scientific theories. Examples are Empedocles' theory of evolution by trial and error, or Parmenides' myth of the un-changing block universe in which nothing ever happens and which, if we add another dimension, becomes Einstein's block universe (in which, too, nothing ever happens, since everything is, four-dimensionally speaking, determined and laid down from the beginning).

I thus felt that if a theory is found to be nonscientific, or 'metaphysical' (as we might say), it is not thereby found to be unimportant, or insignificant, or 'meaning-less', or 'nonsensical'. But it cannot claim to be backed by empirical evidence in the scientific sense-although it may easily be, in some genetic sense, the 'result of observation'.

This is definitely an awareness of the limitations of science, and also how myths themselves may generate scientific theories. Not all will be - there is not a "myth of the gaps" theory here, because Popper is also aware that some theories may not ever be testable in a scientific sense, and he is very careful to note that this does not mean they are necessarily unimportant.

Lastly, I'll finish this section with an eye-opening off-the cuff speech by Douglas Adams, which again is a vote against being to quick to apply reductionism to our thinking - under the guise of "science", although really, as I suspect, a lurking logical positivism. This is not about the existence or non-existence of God, but it does show how such beliefs may play an important part in our thinking, in ways we are not fully aware of. Something, perhaps, to explore in another piece of writing.

I want to talk about Feng Shui, which is something I know very little about, but there's been a lot of talk about it recently in terms of figuring out how a building should be designed, built, situated, decorated and so on. Apparently, we need to think about the building being inhabited by dragons and look at it in terms of how a dragon would move around it. So, if a dragon wouldn't be happy in the house, you have to put a red fish bowl here or a window there. This sounds like complete and utter nonsense, because anything involving dragons must be nonsense - there aren't any dragons, so any theory based on how dragons behave is nonsense. What are these silly people doing, imagining that dragons can tell you how to build your house? Nevertheless, it occurs to me if you disregard for a moment the explanation that's actually offered for it, it may be there is something interesting going on that goes like this: we all know from buildings that we've lived in, worked in, been in or stayed in, that some are more comfortable, more pleasant and more agreeable to live in than others. We haven't had a real way of quantifying this, but in this century we've had an awful lot of architects who think they know how to do it, so we've had the horrible idea of the house as a machine for living in, we've had Mies van der Roe and others putting up glass stumps and strangely shaped things that are supposed to form some theory or other. It's all carefully engineered, but nonetheless, their buildings are not actually very nice to live in. An awful lot of theory has been poured into this, but if you sit and work with an architect (and I've been through that stressful time, as I'm sure a lot of people have) then when you are trying to figure out how a room should work you're trying to integrate all kinds of things about lighting, about angles, about how people move and how people live - and an awful lot of other things you don't know about that get left out. You don't know what importance to attach to one thing or another; you're trying to, very consciously, figure out something when you haven't really got much of a clue, but there's this theory and that theory, this bit of engineering practice and that bit of architectural practice; you don't really know what to make of them. Compare that to somebody who tosses a cricket ball at you. You can sit and watch it and say, 'It's going at 17 degrees'; start to work it out on paper, do some calculus, etc. and about a week after the ball's whizzed past you, you may have figured out where it's going to be and how to catch it. On the other hand, you can simply put your hand out and let the ball drop into it, because we have all kinds of faculties built into us, just below the conscious level, able to do all kinds of complex integrations of all kinds of complex phenomena which therefore enables us to say, 'Oh look, there's a ball coming; catch it!'

What I'm suggesting is that Feng Shui and an awful lot of other things are precisely of that kind of problem. There are all sorts of things we know how to do, but don't necessarily know what we do, we just do them. Go back to the issue of how you figure out how a room or a house should be designed and instead of going through all the business of trying to work out the angles and trying to digest which genuine architectural principles you may want to take out of what may be a passing architectural fad, just ask yourself, 'how would a dragon live here?' We are used to thinking in terms of organic creatures; an organic creature may consist of an enormous complexity of all sorts of different variables that are beyond our ability to resolve but we know how organic creatures live. We've never seen a dragon but we've all got an idea of what a dragon is like, so we can say, 'Well if a dragon went through here, he'd get stuck just here and a little bit cross over there because he couldn't see that and he'd wave his tail and knock that vase over'. You figure out how the dragon's going to be happy here and lo and behold! you've suddenly got a place that makes sense for other organic creatures, such as ourselves, to live in.

So, my argument is that as we become more and more scientifically literate, it's worth remembering that the fictions with which we previously populated our world may have some function that it's worth trying to understand and preserve the essential components of, rather than throwing out the baby with the bath water; because even though we may not accept the reasons given for them being here in the first place, it may well be that there are good practical reasons for them, or something like them, to be there.

Darkness Visible

This is remembrance day, and here is a poem about the cost of war and the suffering of the innocent. For it is always the innocent who suffer.

In so many wars and conflicts, neighbour turns against neighbour, as happened in Rwanda, in Bosnia, is still  is even now happening in parts of Thailand, where Buddhists and Muslims who have been neighbours for years now are polarised against each other. Elsewhere, the fight for power, as in the Congo and Sudan, leaves millions displaced in starvation conditions.

Today is a day for remembering those who died to make the world a safer place, and I would not belittle that, but it is also a day for remembering the innocents, caught up in conflicts that are not of their making, but for which they have to pay a heavy price.

Darkness Visible

War torn, rockets raining down
Upon the innocent, here a crown
Of thorns on many heads; times
Of fear and courage oftentimes
Entwined into a tapestry of days;
And where will come the rays
Of dawn? Here darkness visible
Across the land, an intangible
Shadow falling in some hearts
As these grow so cold in parts:
Hardened against reaching out,
Instead, enraged, they shout
Their anger. Cain killing Abel,
His own brother. Another fable
Tells of Babel, of many voices,
But no listening, so no choices,
As each person rants unheeding
And so very deaf to the pleading
Of the mother, of the small child
Crying out in pain. They are defiled,
And innocents massacred once more,
By those who wage a bloody war,
By those who claim to be so right,
They will not cease an endless fight.
They claim that God is on their side,
But it is untrue. For he does hide
Among the poor, who suffer hurt
His face, starved, ravaged. Assert
This: not in brute power his grace
But bleeding, with a wounded face.

Ramadan

This is another of Annie's poems, written during a holiday in Egypt in 2002.
 
Ramadan
 
The end of yet another blessed day
Sun descending behind purple hills
The heat and dust of the day
Ascend to heaven in a palpable rosy haze.
Swifts and swallows rise and fall
Swooping low out over the river,
Dark against the sky
The fringed heads of palms chatter with birdsong
And somewhere, the Imam begins the call for sunset.
 
 
Egypt nov/02

Fireworks

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/jersey/8342216.stm

Warning after firework hits car. Throwing fireworks could have "serious consequences". A car was hit by a firework thrown from another car on a Jersey road, according to police. The incident happened at 2130 GMT on Tuesday on Victoria Avenue, St Helier. Officers said they had two separate calls about it, and the police had since spoken to and given "words of advice" to the driver.  Following two other incidents where lit fireworks were put through letterboxes, police in the island are warning people to use them in a responsible manner. "To distract someone while they are driving by throwing fireworks, particularly in the weather we are having at the moment, could have serious consequences," Insp Martin Buckfield, said. "Throwing a firework into someone's home could result in injury or death, though it may seem like a harmless prank. "It is of concern to us that a minority of people are choosing to use fireworks in this way." The police are urging parents to be aware about children buying fireworks and how they might use them. Insp Buckfield said: "We would urge anyone who experiences problems with fireworks being used abusively to call us. "We would reiterate that we will deal firmly with people who choose to cause distress and upset to others through their behaviour."

Having read this locally (and also see below for a catalog of recent incidents this year!!), I think it is time that fireworks were restricted - like firearms - to people with proper training. You need a licence to have a gun, but everyone over 18 can just go out and but fireworks - surely a recipe for a tragedy. It would be terrible if - as the Inspector notes - there was injury or death, and it would surely be better to be wise before, rather than after, the event.

It is not a question of a "nanny state" but of reasonable safety. Once anyone could get in a car and drive. Now we have to pass a driving test, because driving a car if not trained can be extremely dangerous. If I own a gun, I need a gun licence. And yet anyone can buy and set off these explosives!

In fact, since I began this, a tragic case in Cornwall where deaths ensured has come to light; it is the last two news items in this blog. Will we wait until something like that happens in Jersey? Or will we just be wise "after the event"? Why not "wise-up" now?

Part of the problem is that while the law can take action against indiscriminate use of fireworks, it is mostly ineffectual, because it is almost impossible to track down miscreants. They can casually pass by a house on a dark night, or set off fireworks across a road, and the culprits have long gone before the police can arrive at the scene. It is absolutely no good the police "acting firmly" if they can't catch anyone.

I think that Angela Epstein, writing in the Manchester Evening News, puts the absurdity and danger of the situation extremely well. Like her, I am not against proper organised displays; there was an extremely well policed and organised one in St Brelade's last night, with fireworks lit by professionals who take due safety precautions.

Only recently, the MEN carried the awful story of 11- year-old Prestwich schoolboy Callum Wightman who was playing near his home when some thugs deliberately launched a rocket which exploded in his face.

How could any parent not shiver with horror at the thought of an innocent child being maimed for life, simply because he had the temerity to play with his pals within the orbit of mindless rocket-toting yobs.

Do your children play outside? Do they walk to and from school? Why should they have to plough through these pyrotechnic landmines to do so? It continues to astonish me why the sale of fireworks hasn't been banned in this country. In the wrong hands – from bored hoodies with a thirst for mischief to religious extremists throwing them through the letter box of an anti-cause target – they are lethal weapons. Yet no government has yet had the stomach to set the legislation in motion.

I'm not a killjoy and realise the pleasure they can bring at organised displays, or even in back gardens where careful adults put on a magical treat for children. And I appreciate it seems unfair that the responsible should suffer because of the actions of the irresponsible. But in this case the price is simply too high.

Year after year, we hear about terrible bonfire night injuries.

It seems ludicrous that you cannot take a can of cola through airport security because of its potential risk to passenger safety. Yet any 18 year old – or younger if the shop assistant is dozy enough – can get their hands on such dangerous devices.

How can we, as a civilised society, allow the continued sale of explosives, without any thought of the dangers they pose to innocent individuals who have the misfortune to stray into their path.

How often do we read of whole communities who are rocked by anti-social behaviour and marauding yobs. So why do we literally light the fuse of the ASBO culture by allowing fireworks to be available over the counter?

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/s/1179148_opinion_angela_epstein


Here is just a selection of other stories from UK and Eire in the last week.

http://www.jarrowandhebburngazette.com/latest-news/Firework-pushed-through-letterbox.5799938.jp

A WOMAN had a lucky escape when reckless vandals pushed a lit firework through her letterbox.
The incident happened in Bedford Avenue, South Shields, on Tuesday evening when the homeowner found the firework – which didn't go off – in the passageway of her home. As police and fire crews are gear up for Guy Fawkes Night, all rest days have been cancelled and neighbourhood policing teams will be out patrolling their beats – some carrying hand-held cameras to capture bad behaviour on film which can be used as evidence in court.

http://www.nwipp-newspapers.com/SC/free/328997468585511.php  

FIREWORKS shoved through letterboxes in the Ballycolman estate on Halloween night could have fatally injured someone.
That is the claim from one resident whose letterbox was destroyed in the attacks. Eamon Doherty was not at home when the vandalism occurred. Speaking to the Chronicle on Tuesday, he called for those involved to consider the consequences of such actions.

He told us, "The attack occurred sometime after 10pm. When I arrived home at 4am I noticed the damage straight away. "The metal part of the letterbox from the inside was blown right into the kitchen area. The outside part was completely destroyed, which indicates that this wasn't some ordinary 'banger'.  "The massive force suggests that it may have been a few 'bangers' tied together. "I have a curtain behind the letterbox and nine times out of ten my girlfriend would pull the curtain when we leave the house. It was fortunate that she didn't do it on Saturday night because it could have caused a serious fire. "For parts of the letterbox to end up in the kitchen area it indicates the massive force of the fireworks. It doesn't bear thinking what could've happened to someone, especially a child, if they were in the hall at the moment of the explosion.

http://icseftonandwestlancs.icnetwork.co.uk/icbootle/news/tm_headline=single-teenager-mum-rescued-from-home-with-baby-after-firework-attack-on-her-bootle-home&method=full&objectid=25094124&siteid=60252-name_page.html  

A BOOTLE mum and her six month old baby were rescued from a house fire after a rocket was fired through their letterbox on Mischief Night.

Laura Caveney, 18, was asleep in her bedroom with her six month old daughter Olivia, when she was startled by a bang followed by a red flash which lit up the house on Ash Street. The rocket exploded in the hall setting fire to the stairs, carpet and wallpaper. Thick black smoke billowed from the hall up to the top of the house, and the young mum quickly realised she was trapped upstairs with her baby. Laura, who has been living in Bootle for four months, grabbed the mobile from under her pillow and dialled 999, before banging desperately against the window in a bid to attract attention. A passing girl soon spotted Laura and tried to kick open her front door, before Merseyside Fire and Rescue arrived on the scene a little after 10.30pm. Officers wearing breathing apparatus knocked down the front door and reached the stranded mother and baby upstairs. Laura was told to put a coat on and cover her baby's face before she was led downstairs through the smoke to safety.

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/s/1180800_100000_urged_to_be_safe_on_bonfire_night  

Since the middle of October, firefighters have been called to deal with 57-separate firework related incidents. These include people throwing fireworks, pushing them through people's letter boxes and injuries caused by them.

http://www.thisisexeter.co.uk/news/Yobs-rocket-flare-Exeter-home/article-1480215-detail/article.html  

POLICE are hunting yobs who fired a rocket flare into a family's living room at their city home. A mother and son were in the house as the powerful firework smashed through a double-glazed window and started a blaze at their home in Wonford. And terrified neighbours feared the worst when they heard a loud bang and saw black smoke billowing out of the house in Rutherford Street. The incident has prompted a stark warning from fire chiefs on the eve of Bonfire Night that the misuse of fireworks will not be tolerated.

http://www.thisisthewestcountry.co.uk/news/devon_news/4714898.Escape_from_Exeter_firework_attack/  

PEOPLE sleeping in a house in Exeter escaped unhurt after pranksters put a lighted firework through their letterbox in the early hours of Sunday morning.  The firework caused slight fire damage to the ground floor while the rest of the house was heavily smoke-logged. The occupants of the house, in Monks Road, Polsloe, were woken up by a smoke alarm.  Fire crews used a positive pressure ventilation fan to clear the smoke

http://www.greenocktelegraph.co.uk/news/greenock/articles/2009/11/05/393723-mum-in-firework-attack-terror/  

A GREENOCK mum feared she could have been killed after a firework was put through her letterbox. Joan Ogilvie, 39, was watching television at home when she heard a hissing sound and jumped to her feet and ran to the door. She said: "I was screaming - I saw the smoke and the sparkling colours of it. The door was locked and I was looking for the key. "I opened the door and the next minute I saw a boy running along the road. I chased him but he was too fast." Luckily the firework only left a scorch mark in the hall but Joan and her husband Daniel, who have a teenage son and daughter, say the incident could have been a lot worse. Joan said: "The electricity meter is in a cupboard in the hall.
"If a fire started there we would have been goners and so would the people in the houses on either side as well."
Joan is furious youngsters are buying fireworks to cause a nuisance She said: "I'm totally disgusted - where are they getting them in the first place?  "I thought they could only be bought for organised displays - I'm totally scunnered."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/guernsey/8327800.stm  

Islanders are being asked by Guernsey's firework consultative group to limit Guy Fawkes parties to 5 November in the interests of safety. The group includes the emergency services, the Health and Safety Executive, animal welfare groups and Age Concern.  The group said private celebrations should be finished by 2100 GMT.  It suggested people should show consideration for neighbours, the elderly or those on their own.  Safety leaflets will be available in the run up to Guy Fawkes' Night. The Fire and Rescue Service and the Guernsey Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals will visit schools to give advice for safe celebrations for people and animals.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/oct/30/halloween-home-insurance-claims-spike  

House insurance claims are expected to rise by 270% on Halloween, according to Axa Insurance, while Saga claims 3.6 million homeowners will face damage to their properties as some revellers go too far with nasty pranks aiming to deliberately cause damage.

It is not just Halloween that has insurers on standby: bonfire night (5 November) is also notorious for malicious damage claims, many the result of firecrackers being pushed through letterboxes. Kidd said: "Although it is difficult to avoid someone putting something through the letterbox, people should take extra care to ensure windows and doors are locked, garden gates are secured and outbuildings, such as garages and sheds, are locked." Axa said that following bonfire night last year the average claim for damage caused by a firework or firecracker pushed through a letterbox was £1,000.

http://www.limerickleader.ie/news/Gardai-on-high-alert-in.5781426.jp  

Already this year, northside city councillor Maurice Quinlivan, Sinn Fein, has reported illegal bangers being pushed through people's letterboxes, causing fear for both residents and their pets.  Inspector John O'Reilly, Henry Street Garda station, called on parents of young children to educate them on the danger of fireworks and anti-social behaviour.  New offences and penalties for the illegal possession and use of fireworks were introduced under the Criminal Justice Act 2006. The penalty for these offences is a fine of up to €10,000 or five years' imprisonment - or both.  "I would urge all parents to monitor the activities of children to ensure their safety in the event of attending any firework displays. Young people may go out and play some pranks, but I would ask all parents to sit down and talk with their children to ensure nothing is done that is illegal," he said.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/nov/08/investigation-mary-fox-house-fire
 
Police in Cornwall todayappealed for more information after calling on the people involved in a firework-related house fire that killed a woman to "do the decent thing and come forward".

Mary Fox, 59, died after helping her youngest son, Raum, 17, who has learning difficulties, to jump to safety from an upstairs window but was overcome by the blaze before firefighters could save her.

Firefighters arrived within minutes of a 999 call at around 7.15pm on Thursday and found Fox dead in the room from where her son had escaped.

After leaping from the three-storey house, Raum ran to alert neighbours that his mother was still trapped inside.
He was taken to Treliske hospital where he was treated for smoke inhalation and is now staying with his eight brothers and sisters.

Police began the investigation after the remains of a firework were found behind the front door of the home in Bodmin.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article6908083.ece

POLICE have opened a murder inquiry into the death of a mother of nine in a house fire that started when a firework was pushed through her letterbox.

Mary Fox, 59, died after helping her teenage son jump through an upstairs window to save him as flames engulfed the house in Bodmin, Cornwall. Neighbours said Raum Fox, 17, was being targeted by bullies.

The fire started at 7.15pm last Thursday after fireworks were pushed through the door. One neighbour said yesterday that he had seen three children, aged 12-16, shouting "shame, shame" as the fire enveloped the house. Locals said the children were well-known troublemakers in the neighbourhood.

 

News from Nowhere - Showbusiness Special

Encyclopedia Insulae, 6th edition, 2005

The Channel Island of Malaisey is often known as the "forgotten Channel Island". Larger than Guernsey, smaller than Jersey, both more southerly and closer to France. The origins of the name, Malaise, are unknown, but the tourism guides commonly joke that sea-sick sailors, suffering from the malaise of stormy weather, named the Island. It has a ministerial government, headed by the elderly First Minister, Gerry A. Trick. It also has a monthly magazine "Malaisey Live" produced by A. Lister-Cross, which comes out now and again.

This week Gerry A Trick has a bad cough, so has put a copy of popular local magazine "Malaisey Now" in his place.

Malaisey Now: Showbusiness Special
 
We Do Anything, Anytime
 
In Malaisey today, Tom Brooke-Taylor took up the role of Deputy Bailiff in the Malaisey's Chamber of Secrets. "I've always wanted to wear a silly hat, ever since I was in the Goodies," he said, "and now I can add that to my Union Jack waistcoat. Goodie-goodie-yum-yum" The assembled multitude included numerous dignitaries from show business, including the Grey Guardian, the Queen's representative, who wore a suitably bizarre hat with a dead seagull on it for the occasion.
 
But not every one cheered. Outside the Chamber of Secrets, a protest was taking place with bells and whistles. "He is not a 'Goody' said one of the protestors, the Grim Reaper, "but a 'Baddie", and we want to let the world know. He doesn't let the extras play any part, and hogs the limelight to himself. This is evidential, in the way he rules!"
 
Have you seen Elvis?
 
It has been rumoured that a sightings have been made of the late Elvis Potter, the protest singer. Elvis was often absent at State sittings, but would instead sing protest songs and blow whistles outside the States until one day, he fled to London, pursued by the Musical Establishment who found his music arresting. "I will sing another day", he said as he left the shores of Malaisey, heading for fame at London's West End, "bring on the clowns."
 
Elvis is, of course, most notable for his hit record "Jailhouse Rock", which was performed very early one morning with Elvis accompanied by six members of the band, The Police.
 
The Attorney-General threw a party in the county jail.
The Council of Ministers were there and they began to wail.
The Constables jumped in and a "no vote" began to swing.
You should've heard policemen at my door when they ring.
Let's rock, everybody, let's rock.
Everybody in the Magistrates's dock
was dancin' to the Jailhouse Rock.
 
Final Tour for the Shadows
 
Malaisey will see the final tour of these popular shadowy guitar players, before they head off to pastures new in the United Kingdom. According to an unconfirmed rumour, the lead guitarist Hank Pillock, will probably leave the Island with a retiring collection in the region of £250,000 or more. What is even more amazing is that he managed such a healthy figure, given that he did not ever manage to complete his guitar lessons! Now he's definitely off for a Summer Holiday.
 
Unidentified Fleeing Objects
 
The TJN (Tracking Jurisdiction Network) has published a list of secrecy jurisdictions across the globe where all sorts of alien activity is hidden from view. Leading the list is the USA, with Delaware and Nevada as two jurisdictions notorious for secret companies with bases in the desert. But Malaisey also gets a mention at number twelve in the list. "It is very taxing trying to find alien activity in Malaisey," said spokesman Andrew Mulder for the TJN, "but I have managed to place some of what goes on in my X-Files. Rest assured, the truth is out there!"
 
A sceptical spokesman for Malaisey, Geoff Scully, said that "Malaisey has shown that it is transparent with its commitment to Tracking Information Exchange Agreements, and we have signed lots of TIEAs with other countries. The OECD (Organisation for Extraterrestrial Contact Department) has placed us on its white list of places least likely to be harbouring alien activity."

Referendum - A Clarification

As I have been misunderstood on the Referendum on  the Constables, just to put the record straight, I didn't actually say that (as has been suggested) that:

(1) I thought it was a good idea to remove the Constables from the States

only that

(2) it was a good idea for the whole Island to decide rather than just States members - which was Montfort Tadier's proposition.

There is a considerable difference between the two, and I do not wish to belittle the role the Constables make.

I certainly think that Simon Crowcroft, in particular, does a marvelous job, and various Constables in the past, have also made considerable contributions to Island life. I remember when Max de La Haye was Constable of St Brelade, if I emailed him on any Parish issue (which was not that often), he would get to me - on the phone - within a day.

I think the move to change the Constables elections to a single day has made a great deal of difference in raising the visibility of the election process. Before that, Constables would be re-elected on a very ad-hoc basis, and often the elections slipped under the radar. It has to be remembered that it was the Constables themselves, on their own initiative, who made this move.

I personally think the far more important issue for the Constables is not whether they should be in the States or not, but how they can improve representation at Parish Assemblies, where, as I mention, there may be 40 people who can make a Wednesday night at 8.00 taking decisions that can effect thousands in the Parish. I think there should be some kind of mechanism for ensuring that more important decisions can receive a wider electorate - for instance, a  simple postal application available to pick up, sign and drop back or post before an Assembly for those on the electoral role to enable them to vote by proxy. It is not good enough to say that people should make the commitment - the elderly, those with young children, those housebound, carers etc often cannot do so, through no fault of their own, and are thereby disenfranchised.

Regarding Guernsey, the Constables and Parish system is considerably different there and has been for many year. There are two constables for each Parish - a senior and a junior. The Constables had not been members of the States for many years, long before the recent reforms. In fact much of this goes back to the post-war years, when Guernsey's policing system was rationalised, and effectively their honorary system dismantled. The history of the Guernsey police says that:

"During the War years it became apparent that in the interests of justice, law enforcement and efficiency it was impracticable to have so many policing systems. As a result, on 5th August 1919, the subject of an Island Police Force again came up for discussion before the States of Deliberation. On that date a resolution was passed which was confirmed in November of the same year, that all duties in matters criminal, and law keeping in general, would be transferred from the parish Constables to an Island Police Force. The Projet de Loi entitled: "Loi ayant rapport a la Pohce Salerie en I'le Entiere" was registered on 10th January 1920.  However, it must be noted that on the establishment of the Island Police Force the Parish Constables were not deprived of their policing powers, but they are seldom, if ever, called upon to exercise them."
 
(http://www.guernsey.police.uk/ccm/cms-service/download/asset/?asset_id=5544006)

So the Parish system has always been weaker in Guernsey, and not simply because of the superconstitiences, as has been mooted, although that may have weakened it further.

 

Statistical Notes - Referendum and Votes

The vote on Montfort Tadier's proposition took place today, and unfortunately did not succeed.

This was to let Islanders decided in a referendum whether they want the Constables in or not.

Deputy Angela Jeune put in an amendment that the referendum should be binding -  on condition that the turnout is greater than 50%, no doubt to stop making the referendum a pointless exercise if the States decide to ignore the results anyway.

But even though this proposition failed - both Montfort's proposition and Angela's amendment - they raised some significant and instructive points on the statistical background involved in referenda, and in voting in general.

Any election or referendum is essentially the same as a self-selecting opinion poll, i.e., although conducted in a more formal manner to make sure that only legitimate voters vote and once, it is the same statistically as a JEP "text in what you would like poll". It is not a random sample, and statistically may not represent the views of the population as a whole. It represents the people who choose to vote.

People who do not vote may not vote for a variety of reasons, which is why there is a UK electoral reform group NOTA, which suggests that voting slips should have "none of the above" on any list of names, to allow a protest vote to be heard as there is no mechanism in our voting system for that. Obviously in the case of the constables staying in the States, where there is a yes or no answer, there undoubtedly would not be the equivalent of this - an undecided vote. The "don't cares" can be certainly assumed not to vote, and there is no easy mechanism (apart from compulsory voting) to count them.

Voting is about making decisions - who gets in, what is to happen etc, and is not a random sampling mechanism. It is judged that people can choose not to vote, but that is their choice, and only those who vote can have a say.

Obviously, in the case of the referendum, the larger the sample size, the more representative it will be, because the less exclusions there will be. Actually the same is true of any vote be it for a referendum, or a vote for any election, which is why a poor turn out gives an implicit message that those voted in have not quite a good a mandate as they should have. The lower the turnout, the more it represents "activists" rather than everyone, and politicians instinctively know this.

Parish Assemblies - with no postal voting - are often the very worst example of this, where 40 people can decide and "rubber stamp" on one evening what a Parish of thousands should do. The move to have both postal and day long polls at Parish halls for Procurers du Bien Public etc is a step in the right direction.

An example of voting size will demonstrate why - for a self-selecting population - a greater size is better. Suppose we conduct a survey or phone in about the Fort regent swimming pool, and 100 people phone in, of which 90 say keep the pool, and 10 say do not. And now suppose that 20,000 people phoned in, and 55% of those (11,000) say keep the pool, and 9,000 say do not. With such a difference, it is easy to see what is true statistically, that with a working population of say 40,000 or more, the second result is more representative of the whole even though it is self-selecting.

So Angela Jeune's 50% is more significant than 33% because it means - if we look at the vote and non-vote - that 50% of the total island population care one way or the other, and only 50% we are not sure of - while on perhaps 33% turnout (which is often the case), the missing 66% of the total island population may well just not care or have no opinion one way or another. The missing figures cannot be assumed to be representative of those who voted.

The alternatives are either random sampling or stratified sampling. Random takes a purely random and statistically large enough segment of the population, and polls them completely at random. Stratified sampling (often used by statisticians) tries to take a random sample but weights it by the same ranges within the population as the last census (same age brackets, income groups, male/female etc)

Interestingly there was a random sample which was very well conducted a few years back - when there was an idea to have a massive and extraordinary bridge to connect the waterfront to the rest of town - connection being a perennial idée fixe among certain politicians - a statistical sampling company was appointed to make a significant random phone sample of the population, which had quite the opposite result to the JEP's self selective survey, and came up with a clear "no" to the project, much to the disgust of the politicians!. The only weakness, but it was a small one, was that while it included all numbers - phone book and ex-directory, and different times of day - not to miss selected people - it of necessity polled only people with landline phones.

Annie Parmeter on Counselling

This is, of necessity, a long post, but it is one of Annie Parmeter's final essays

In it, she doesn't mention any clients by name, and there is nothing identifiable about this, but she does draw upon her own experiences, and this autobiographical and reflective element, coupled with the way she integrates this with her counseling skills, to prove a framework for living, makes it what I think is one of her finest essays - full of clarity and perception and honesty.

INTRODUCTION

This essay is concerned with the exploration and evaluation of the Humanistic Therapeutic model both from a professional counselling perspective and from the way in which the philosophy surfaces in my own life.

I first came across the Humanistic method as it took its place amongst other theories used in the Integrative counselling style of a practitioner who was not only my therapist but my employer and friend. Sadly she died some years ago but she left me with a great legacy, namely the inspiration to become a therapist myself and memories of her very special gift which allowed one as client to leave each session with her feeling incredibly valued and special. I think this gift was rooted in the Humanistic tradition of listening to a client with warmth and empathy and the genuine wish to assist them towards growth and personal empowerment.

My next encounter with elements of the Humanistic method came in my practice of Re-Evaluation Co-Counselling, a non-time limited and mostly non-directive model which includes the ideas of listening to the client with full and undivided attention, cultivating the ability to recognise one's own reactions to the client's story and be congruent about them, but then to bracket them for a later session of one's own, also encouraging the client when necessary to focus in on the feelings being experienced in the here and now and to experience and explore them without intellectualising about them. However, I would not venture to label this type of counselling as purely Humanistic as it does also contain elements of Cognitive and Psychodynamic therapy.

KEY CONCEPTS OF THE MODEL

THE THERAPEUTIC RELATIONSHIP

More than any other model, the Humanistic values the client/counsellor relationship, the importance of which lies at the heart of its philosophy, the idea of healing through relationship. I understand this in terms of the contradiction that it offers to the experience of everyday life, where usually we do not give others our undivided attention, we listen with half an ear whilst continuing to follow our own agendas, we harbour assumptions and judgements about the person who is talking to us and let this influence our attitude towards them, sometimes we don't even look at them, we seldom really engage with others. When we do manage to 'lay our selves aside' something almost magical can take place.

THE CORE CONDITIONS

The practical methodology of this model involves the deployment of three key components, which Rogers named the Core Conditions and he believed that the presence of these conditions alone would be enough to bring about progress for the client.

Unconditional Positive Regard.

From a personal point of view the ideal of non-judgement is one that can be hard to live up to, our patterns lead us to judge even at a subconscious level; we also judge ourselves through internalised oppression the consequence of which is that we place artificial limits on our lives and our thinking. Healthy thinking allows us to view ourselves with UPR freeing us from the fear of taking responsibility for our lives to make real choices, if we can't accept our mistakes and move on, we cannot learn from them.

As a client UPR is a powerful contradiction to our everyday experience of worry about how others might judge what we say or do. Within the counselling relationship we are liberated from this self-censorship and conventionalised interaction and become free to explore our own issues in depth with openness and honesty, all of which facilitates the path to clarity.

As a counsellor I like the way that UPR can work wonders just on its own, the client is offered the view of a possible world where they are accepted as they are, free from the burden of pretence, the relief is sometimes almost tangible, at last the client can be who they need to be.

Congruence

"Congruence was believed by Rogers (1961: 61) to occur when; 'the feelings the therapist is experiencing are available to him, to his awareness, and he is able to live these feelings, be them, and communicate them if appropriate." (McLeod p.174)

Congruence is about openness and self-honesty, a most liberating and laudable quality but tricky to achieve, for no matter how 'real' we think are being there is so often some baggage-ridden old pattern still running at some not-quite-tangible level, or even if we are in touch with it have we truly broken it? Some of the most congruent people I have met were amongst those with various forms of dementia who resided in the care home where my father (who had Alzheimer's) lived out his final years; their congruence, although not generated by conscious means was so refreshing, free from the usual social inhibitions and removed from conventionalisation they would just 'say it how it is'. I often found it a real culture shock when I returned to the so-called real world.

As a client, to have congruence modelled to you by your counsellor, to me almost brings a sense of relief, the space to really start to tackle some of nitty-gritty of one presenting issues within the safety that is devoid of pretence.

When counselling however I find it necessary with some clients to take baby steps towards congruence as too much too soon can be a bit scary for some clients, beginning perhaps with a style of honesty delivered with kindness and charm providing encouragement to them to feel safe about being more open.

Empathy

Empathic understanding is described by Rogers as the ability of the counsellor to 'indwell' in the worldview of the client without being sucked into it. Reflection back to the client of this understanding can give them the sense that someone is really listening and taking an interest in their story possibly for the first time, they may begin to feel safe within the relationship and perhaps a little more encouraged to take risks associated with further disclosure and explore previously threatening ideas. It is indeed a quality that I would recommend to bringing to everyday life but we are so often preoccupied by the logistics of general living, pressed for time and generally stressed by modern living that we don't always have the required emotional stamina to do so. A pity as there is great reward, not least the chance to improve interpersonal relationships and move towards a greater level of closeness and intimacy with loved ones.

To be on the receiving end of empathic understanding seems to provide a safety net which makes me feel more confident to explore my difficulties with my counsellor, as if there is a secure attachment to them and that they will truly listen and try to understand.

To place oneself in the position of another person whilst still maintaining that 'as if' quality demands of the counsellor a relatively high degree of self awareness in order to distinguish and maintain the difference between their position and your own, also to be able to have sufficient self discipline to recognise and 'bracket' one's own feelings for the duration of the session.

THE CLIENT-CENTRED, NON-DIRECTIVE APPROACH

Another of Rogers' key notions was that it is the client who knows what is best for them and that it is the therapist's job to provide the right environment for change to take place and to support the client while they find their own way through their difficulties.

When I first contract with a client, apart from the practical aspects such as timing of sessions and confidentiality for example I also like to add something about what to expect from the Humanistic style of counselling, namely that as counsellor I am not there to blame or judge, that I am not 'the expert' but rather that I will walk beside them on their journey.

This presents a wonderfully liberating and empowering contradiction especially when working with clients who have previously been used to being told what to do, by parents or partners or certain authority figures, for these clients it may be the first time they have truly felt that an opportunity for growth is available. I have sometimes worked with clients who almost can't believe their 'good fortune' and have become quite emotional as they put it in the context of the oppression they have endured.

I experience a sense of ethical and moral 'rightness' about this approach as it represents a fundamental respect for the client's autonomy.

There can be however certain drawbacks with this approach, for example clients who are habitual manipulators might find it very easy to manipulate the counsellor who believes that ultimately the client knows what's best for them thus rendering the therapy pointless.

Some clients can benefit from 'lovingly being told the truth'. I can recall instances from my own experience as a client where this has helped me greatly. One of my counsellors once told me he thought I was obsessive about making arrangements whereas I just saw it as being organised, however when I really gave the matter some consideration I remembered how obsessive my father was about the same issue and a lot of other matters as well, so after a session involving the Gestalt technique of 'the empty chair' I experienced an almost immediate 'letting go' and haven't looked back; I now have a much more relaxed attitude and only make firm plans when absolutely necessary, attending class and hospital appointments for instance.

One must also consider that some clients can indulge in quite destructive behaviour both towards themselves and others and they may benefit from being from being confronted with the consequences of their actions rather than just gently challenged.

Other clients may need a more structured approach from which they can gain a sense of achievement from more measurable success. Some may benefit from being taught new coping mechanisms with which to manage their difficulties. For my own experience as client I found that the freedom afforded by Humanistic counselling was very well complemented by also attending a series of sessions of CBT, both styles of therapy presented me with advantages that the other did not.

THE ROGERIAN IMAGE OF THE PERSON

Within this concept I always see a message of hope. The aim of therapy for Rogers was for the client to reconnect with the 'fully functioning person' that they really are. This should not be defined as some ideal fixed state but rather as an ongoing process, which I happen to find more realistic as it allows for mistakes and therefore learning to take place. So what is the 'fully functioning person'? An idea that has much in common with Maslow's 'self-actualising person'. Rogers' definition "identifies what he sees as some universal directions of the process. These include letting go of facades and becoming more real and transparent, acquiring greater awareness of one's total inner experiences, listening to and trusting the guidance of one's organism, rediscovering and accepting those parts of oneself that have been 'disowned', learning to live fully in the now." (Clinebell)

In counselling practice I find this can be used as a wonderful contradiction, especially for those clients with low self-esteem. For my own part the feeling generated when being reminded by a counsellor that underneath all of those nonsensical and redundant patterns of thinking I am an intelligent being fully connected with the totality of myself is just unbeatable, it makes me feel a renewed vigour and immense hope along with a sense of reassurance that 'everything will be alright'.

What the concept requires however is a belief in the fundamental goodness of human beings and it is just a belief which takes its place alongside the Jesuit saying of give me the boy before he is seven and I will show you the man and the Catholic idea of original sin. In order to be truly congruent within Humanistic therapy therefore, it is necessary to choose to hold onto a certain faith in human nature whether full time or for the duration of the counselling practice.

THE SELF CONCEPT

Rogers suggests that over and above basic needs for food and shelter etc. human beings not only possess the drive to self-actualise but also need positive regard from others. If during childhood this regard is only given conditionally then our self worth will also become conditional and our locus of evaluation will become externalised. Once these patterns of conditional self worth have been recognised then the client's self concept can shift towards a more positive autonomous place that does not rely on the judgement of others.

This notion on the formulation of the self concept and the origins of mental disturbance appeals to me as it acknowledges the power of patterns laid down in early years and their subsequent reinforcement, it highlights the havoc and suffering that can be caused by frozen needs and how these can be played out over and over again in adult life. I have come across this with many clients who have become ensnared in an unhealthy loop where recognition of the pattern is required along with awareness of its effects. Learning to say goodbye to a need that will never be met and move on is a most liberating experience.

CONCLUSION

If I am to evaluate this model from a professional point of view I find it to be particularly ethical in respecting of the individual's right to autonomy, its phenomenological approach of avoiding over-intellectualisation by describing feelings in the here and now holds integrity in 'keeping it real' and in terms of its accessibility, it has merit in the encouragement of positive self regard and personal growth although as counsellor one should be wary of collusion with patterns of narcissism.

On a personal level I find that the philosophy lends itself very well to the formulation of en ethical framework by which to live one's life for the same reasons that validate it as a professional model. As a client it has afforded me the time and space to work through my own difficulties at my own pace and in my own way whilst feeling nurtured and supported.

As a counsellor it has taught me patience, the ability to' bracket' my own feelings until an appropriate time, being congruent enough to express them if required without being sucked in by them. I have learned something of the resilience of the human spirit and that often truth really is stranger than fiction!