Post Election Blues

Post Election Blues
St Helier No 1: Possibilities
Martin, Judy – 946 (elected)
Labey, Russell – 811 (elected)
Wickenden, Scott – 476 (elected)
Kerrigan, Shannen – 355
Le Cornu, Nick – 311
Risoli, Gino – 192

Nick Le Cornu and Gino Risoli are calling for a straight re-run of all the candidates with Scott Wickenden disallowed from standing again because his nomination paper was wrong.

I don’t think this is at all fair on the other two successful candidates, who after all did provide valid nomination papers, and won fair and square. As I can see it, there are several possibilities, and that is the lowest and most unlikely.

What I think is most likely is one of two possibilities:

First, as the Town Hall was ultimately responsible for checking the nomination papers, it may be decided that the fault did not lie with Scott Wickenden, who would not have had at that time a copy of the electoral role. One once nominated – but only then - can candidates get a copy for £50 (to cover Data Protection charges). The Data Protection office, must, incidentally, make a lot out of elections!

In fact this must be well known to Gino Risoli. When he turned up at the St Helier No 1 bi-election with a blank nomination form, and asked people present if they’d like to nominate him, he was told that the nomination papers have to be checked by the Parish.

So on that basis, the law may apply discretion, and let Mr Wickenden’s election stand, as long as it is clear he did everything he could to ensure that his nominees lived in the district – and having the Town Hall check them would fall into that category. He would have also asked the nominee, but it seems they live on a road which is both in and out of the district, and had just moved, hence might well have been uncertain which district they were in.

On the other hand, the Court might decide that, regardless, Mr Wickenden’s election was null and void, and debar him from the States. This would, I venture to suggest, be like the case of the Trevor and Shona Pitman. Mr Wickenden would immediately loose his seat forthwith, and the due process of a bi-election would be called. In such an eventuality, there would be no reason why he could not stand again with a proper set of nominees, or, for that matter, others decide to stand as well.

Either way, the result that Nick le Cornu and Gino Risoli want, which would give then a better chance because of the more limited number of candidates, seems very unlikely to happen.

Referendum Fine Print
Should politicians support the views of their constituencies and represent them? A number of candidates said they would support the results of the Referendum, but does that mean Islandwide, or where they are? For the sake of clarity, in St Helier:

District 1: 679 Yes, 705 No
District 2: 579 Yes, 561 No
District 3: 818 Yes, 821 No
District 4: 464 Yes, 475 No

District 2 was the only St Helier District to support the Yes vote. Sitting Deputies there are Rod Bryans, Sam Mezec, and Geoff Southern. Do they follow the democratic mandate given to them in the Referendum? And if not, why not? Expect prevarication.

In St Brelade, Yes also gained more votes than No, where the other Reform member, Montfort Tadier, sits - so strictly speaking Reform, if they are to reflect their constituencies wishes, should let the matter of the Constables drop.

Recount Results
The recount results for the whole Senatorial elections are available on the Vote.Je website, and they demonstrate some small differences of about one vote or two, some larger ones around 20 votes. As I commented earlier, because mistakes are randomly distributed, they are not significant in ordering with such large numbers, although it is also clear that the counting process is riddled with errors. Not one vote turned out the same. Robust - no! Just fortunate in how statistical error works. And somewhere in the recount, 22 votes vanished overall!

Gorst, Ian (elected): 14,035 (original count: 14,037)
Bailhache, Philip (elected): 13,759 (original count: 13,770)
Green, Andrew (elected): 13,252 (original count: 13,240)
Maclean, Alan (elected): 11,694 (original count: 11,698)
Routier, Paul (elected): 10,962 (original count: 10,964)
Cameron, Zoe (elected): 10,413 (original count: 10,412)
Farnham, Lyndon (elected): 10,413 (original count: 10,409)
Ozouf, Philip (elected): 10,080 (original count 10,062)

Ferguson, Sarah: 9,809 (original count: 9,800)
Dooley-Power, Sean: 8,249 (original count: 8,263)
Young, John: 7,074 (original count 7,095)
Ferey, Malcolm: 6,475 (original count: 6,488)
Habin, Geoff: 5,328 (original count: 5,329)
Southern, Anne: 4,281 (original count: 4,276)
De Faye, Guy: 3,384 (original count: 3,381)
Magee, Chris: 3,158 (original count: 3,153)
Kruszynski, Konrad: 2058 (original count: 2059)
Richardson, David: 1,801 (original court: 1,811)

Total number of votes: 146,225 (original count: 146,247)

Playing Safe – or Playing to Strengths?

Playing Safe – or Playing to Strengths?

Geoff Southern accuses Ian Gorst of playing safe, and Ian Gorst presents his new team as playing to the strengths of the candidates. As usual, the truth is probably somewhere in between.

One thing is certain – this is a broad Council of Ministers, not one of Ministerial cronies. If anyone forgets what that looks like, I suggest they look back at Terry Le Sueur’s dismal tenure when the Council was largely packed with people he felt safe with. Even so, he miserably failed to prevent the falling out between Bill Ogley and Philip Ozouf, despite signing the golden handshake deal with Mr Ogley.

By contrast, this is a Council of Ministers picked carefully more for talent. Although one thing has gone without notice by other bloggers - all except Rod Bryans are Yes Campaign supporters. I'm sure that didn't play a part in the choices, but was more of a statistical side-effect.

Treasury – Alan Maclean
Playing safe – Alan Maclean came 3rd in the Senatorials, and was in a strong position to challenge Ian Gorst, make divisions which might have been difficult to live with. The easier choice was to give him the role he aspired to. There’s a sense that there is a Blair / Brown deal behind the scenes. Whether someone who gave away £200,000 to a fantasy film without due diligence is a good choice remains to be seen! But perhaps he has learnt from his mistakes.

Health – Andrew Green
Playing to strengths – Andrew Green has shown admirable skill at Housing, and was also able to work with Deputy Tadier regarding the latter’s proposition on rental dwelling minimum standards. His showing in the elections demonstrate the electorate see someone who can sort out the various problems facing the health department – a critical report on mental health, a new hospital site, and an entrenched silo mentality and large managerial structure. The only organisation charts of the entire structure are those prepared personally by former Senator Sarah Ferguson!

External Relations – Philip Bailhache
Playing to strengths – Sir Philip is perhaps not that dynamic, but he has the gravitas needed for dealing with Whitehall mandarins and the like. You need a Sir Philip to deal with a Sir Humphrey Appleby.

TTS – Eddie Noel
Given the property holdings portfolio moves with Eddie Noel to TTS, if he gets the post, this is playing to strengths. But will we finally get the Street Works Law promised by Kevin Lewis during most of his tenure as Minister, and forever delayed? Does Eddie have the ability to deal with the layers of management that have accrued to the Department? (Managers at the incinerator outnumber the workforce by at least 2 to 1). And will he get it or will Kevin Lewis get back in? I think this may be a close run thing.

Home Affairs – Kristina Moore
A move from Scrutiny to Minister. Playing to strengths. Scrutiny requires the ability to be critical but constructive, and someone good at scrutiny could also be excellent as a Minister. It’s a pity Deputy Hilton, who has delivered outstanding Scrutiny reports, has not been given any role though.

Economic Development – Lyndon Farnham
Long awaited, and playing to strengths – Lyndon is certainly the one to deal with tourism and his experience of the industry will stand him in good stead. Perhaps not so strong with finance, but some of that will shift to the Chief Minister’s department under an Assistant Minister, Philip Ozouf, in a role created specially for him.

That is also playing to Senator Ozouf’s strengths, and getting him to focus on specific areas to bring in business from abroad, where he already has built up networks to use, and taking him away from the Treasury, where he has sometimes been to ad hoc in decision making. But the decision about Philip Ozouf is also playing safe – with a remit like this, he won’t challenge Alan Maclean.

Social Security – Susie Pinel
Playing safe. She was Assistant Minister. However, she was very much a silent partner under Minister Francis Le Gresley, making virtually no contributions at States sittings. Will her light now come out from under its bushel? Or is she really too lightweight? Time will tell. But by nominating her when she has expressed a desire for the department, Ian Gorst avoids her challenging someone else for the post.

Education, Sport and Culture – Rod Bryans
Now reduced to Education and Skills, it will certainly not be left and neglected as it was under Patrick Ryan, a Minister so concerned with not making mistakes, that he didn’t make anything happen. Bryans is a peculiar member of the States, sometimes coming out with “blue sky” or “whacky ideas” like his cards to give out for acts of kindness. But innovative thinking outside the box is perhaps what is needed. Playing to strengths, and by no stretch of the imagination playing safe. Edward de Bono would approve.

Housing – Anne Pryke
Playing safe. Now that housing has mostly left to Andium Homes with housing staff, this is a clear demotion to a skeleton department. Stuff to deal with – deposits, implementing the minimum standards legislation. But small fry. Interesting that she has still been kept on as a Minister whereas Kevin Lewis has been booted out. It is clearly playing safe because by putting her here, she is removed from Health and will not challenge Andrew Green because she has a Ministry.

Planning and Environment – Steve Luce
This will be interesting – after two planning ministers with grand ideas (albeit different ones), will we actually get someone who has some notion of what is best for the island? I suspect his major input into the Yes Campaign may well have tipped him for higher office. Clearly playing to strengths. We don’t want another Freddie Cohen with Masterplans and Freddie’s Folly at Portelet, or Rob Duhamel with maverick planning decisions.

Election Oversight

I see that Philip Ozouf has called for international observers.

“International election observers should be present during Jersey elections, according to a winning politician. Senator-elect Philip Ozouf said having observers would give a stamp of approval to the work done by officials. Mr Ozouf was an election observer in the Cayman Islands for the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association in 2013.”

He said: "The thing I am now going to be pressing for is for our law to be changed in Jersey to allow international election observers to be present for the whole of the election and not just the count. Then for the day after the election to make a statement as to whether or not the election has been carried out in a free, fair and accurate way."
But how effective is election monitoring? There is an interesting article by Susan D. Hyde and Judith G. Kelley called “The Limits of Election Monitoring”. They point out that

“On the positive side, observers can verify that governments are indeed playing by the rules, which can be important in quelling ‘sore loser’ protests, increasing voter confidence, assisting the international community in assessing the legitimacy of the elections, and in theory, promoting democratization.”
Now it is clear that some people have unfairly castigated Sarah Ferguson as a “sore loser” for claiming what was a legitimate right. The limits of error have been set at 1%. But perhaps an extra factor should be an absolute difference in votes, as well as a percentage.

The reason for this was stated clearly by Edward B Foley in his article “Recounts: Elections in Overtime”. Looking at the USA, he comments that “it is extremely rare to have a major state-wide election unsettled after Election Night. The mathematical "law" of large numbers accounts for this statistical fact.”

“Though a small local election involving only a thousand ballots could easily end up with only a ten-vote margin between the two leading candidates-and thus the necessity of a recount and perhaps a judicial lawsuit to determine whether that ten-vote margin holds up as valid-a large state-wide election involving a million ballots or more is much less likely to end up in such an easily disputable ten-vote margin.”
And he explains by means of an example:

“Think of it this way: Say two candidates run neck-and-neck in a small local election with only 1, 000 voters and they split the vote almost evenly 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent; the outcome is a two-vote margin. However, if two candidates receive the same neck and-neck percentages in a large state-wide race involving 1 million ballots, the result is a 2,000-vote margin, which is not as easily contestable.”
So perhaps the percentages should be revised to also include a threshold for the larger difference in our own Senatorial elections, because as Foley’s example shows, a bare percentage is useful with small numbers of votes, far less so with larger numbers. Alternatively, a smaller percentage could be set for fixed for Senatorial elections to reflect this mathematical deficiency in the Jersey election law.

In fact, mathematician Philip Stark has devised a method in the USA called “risk-limiting auditing”, described in a 2008 paper, “Conservative statistical post-election audits”

“What this new auditing method does is count enough to have high confidence that [a full recount] wouldn't change the answer…You can think of this as an intelligent recount. It stops as soon as it becomes clear that it's pointless to continue. It gives stronger evidence that the outcome is right.”
His methodology has been endorsed by the American Statistical Association as well as numerous academics and he Brennan Center for Justice.

Risk-limiting auditing relies on a published statistical formula, based on an accepted risk limit, and on the margin of victory to determine how many randomly selected ballots should be manually checked. Perhaps it is something the States statistical unit could look into.

Returning to election observers, what also can they do?

“When governments do not play by the rules, observers can reduce fraud that would otherwise occur and condemn governments for election manipulation, sometimes validating domestic protest, as happened in Georgia in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004. “
However, the really important work is also done before and after the elections:

“International monitors conduct a great deal of on-the-ground work months before an election even takes place…They pressure governments -- either through direct meetings or public condemnation -- to update voter registers, support domestic observers, ensure that ballot materials are delivered throughout the country, and adopt technologies that make blatant election fraud harder.”
Of those items listed above, there can be no doubt that the voting registers contain errors in Jersey – duplication of electors where they have moved Parish or District, and the older address has not been removed, mistakes when boundary voters are entered on two lists for Districts within one Parish, and I would not mind betting there are probably dead people on there as well.

The rolling electoral role means incremental changes are made as data comes from electoral register forms about new addresses, but change of address or death is an absence of an entry. Unlike the old days, when a completely new register was created, the rolling register maintains errors for three years.

But the authors also note that observers may be biased because they are not entirely as independent as the word suggests:

“It is important to remember that observers are agents of donors, governments, and organizations, whose need for diplomacy or stability can push monitors away from frankly assessing elections. This problem is underreported and not discussed enough, either because many in the media assume that all monitors are disinterested “election police” or because policymakers choose to turn a blind eye.”
And it also notes that:

“Yet due to poor or delayed funding, many missions arrive too late or are too understaffed to evaluate the full pre-election period and document whether there were problems with the unfair use of government resources, the voter registration process, the way the electoral commission is appointed and run, the rules for candidates and parties, and so on. A similar dynamic holds for after the vote, as observers and donors often shift their focus too quickly to elections elsewhere.”
There is now a moratorium on presenting any propositions after the nomination period, but that still does not prevent a Minister from presenting a promise to bring a proposition.

For instance, Philip Ozouf himself came out with a “New Deal for St Helier” well into his campaign, as his ratings clearly were flagging. Is it right that a Treasury Minister should offer a special deal to a particular group of voters to win them over? Is that not an abuse of office?

If, for example, a Social Security Minister had offered (they didn’t) to bring a proposition for free dental care for over-70s, that would appear to me to also be using their office to their advantage, something which a backbencher or outsider would be unable to do.

It would be an unfair advantage, and one in which the spirit, if not the letter, of the ruling on no propositions after nomination night would be broken. Perhaps in looking at “rules for candidates”, the independent observers would also consider that when preparing a statement as to whether or not the election has been carried out in a free, fair and accurate way!

References
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-jersey-29789307
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67968/susan-d-hyde-and-judith-g-kelley/the-limits-of-election-monitoring
http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/documents/recounts.pdf
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/07/saving-american-elections-with-10-sided-dice-one-stats-profs-quest/

A Robust Voting System?

In the end, the Senatorial recount only gave rise to a smattering of votes different from the previous occasion. But, by all accounts, this was not so much from the robustness of the voting system, as a result that a lot of the errors (and there were more than the announcement suggested), cancelled each other out.

It would be interesting if they published the revised count by Senator and Parish so that the exact nature of differences could be seen, because of course, while not materially effecting the result, other Senators also had different counts in the end.

If there is enough exactness in the system, then a small percentage of errors will not make a qualitative difference, but understanding how those errors are caused can help make the system more robust in the future.

Apparently, one common error was scanning along a sheet with names at one side, and numbers across, meant that it was easier for the eye to slip from one line to another.

A study by researchers at Rice University showed that hand counting of votes in post-election audit or recount procedures can result in error rates of up to 2 percent.

Michael Byrne, associate professor of psychology at Rice said:

“It is probably impossible to completely eliminate errors in hand counting of ballots. However, there are new auditing methods that capitalize on advanced statistical procedures that can help ensure that final election results better match what is actually on the ballots. It is important that we become aware of the limitations of current methods and develop alternative ways to improve the accuracy of election results.”

For most elections, even a 2 percent error won't change the results, but it can happen.

But the bottom line is that there will always be counting mistakes – but as long as the errors are unsystematic, they will usually cancel each other out. In the aggregate you'll have an estimate quite close to the real result.

So the voting system is not strictly speaking “robust” but “robust enough for practical purposes”.

Odds and Evens

On October 3rd, the JEP published bookmakers odds given by CB Sports, in which the core statement was that “Sir Philip Bailhach is currently ‘hot’ favourite to top the Island-wide vote”. Well, he wasn’t! Here’s a look at those odds, and how they actually worked out.

In general, intelligent guesswork would have probably yielded as good result. In some cases, probably better. I would have always assumed Judy Martin would top her poll, but the bookmaker put her third.

Clearly CB Sports has a long way to go before they reach the accuracy of “Honest Nev”!

Senators:2/9 - Sir Philip Bailhache – IN BUT WRONG PLACE
5/2 - Ian Gorst - IN BUT WRONG PLACE
9/2 - Paul Routier - IN BUT WRONG PLACE
9/2 - Sarah Ferguson – WRONG, VOTE OUT
5/1 - Andrew Green - IN BUT WRONG PLACE
8/1 - Lyndon Farnham - RIGHT
8/1 - John Young – WRONG, VOTED OUT

9/1 - Philip Ozouf – WRONG, VOTED IN

10/1 - Sean Power
12/1 - Alan Maclean – WRONG, VOTED IN
20/1 - Zoe Cameron = WRONG, VOTED IN
25/1 - Malcolm Ferey
33/1 - Geoff Habin
80/1 - Guy de Faye
200/1 - Anne Southern
500/1 - Konrad Kruszyski
500/1 - Chris Magee
500/1 - David Richardson
1/5 odds - each way (1,2,3)

The odds for Senators were way out, and even if you consider “in but wrong place”, are still very poor.

Of those getting in:
5 out of 8 were right, but in the wrong place. Only 1 was right, and in the right place.

St Saviour No 1:4/7 - Peter McLinton, RIGHT BUT WRONG PLACE
6/4 - Rob Duhamel - WRONG

5/2 - Jeremy Macon – WRONG

It was Rob Duhamel, not Jeremy Macon who lost his seat.

St Saviour No 2:2/7 - Kevin Lewis - RIGHT
6/4 - Louise Doublet - RIGHT

6/1 - Maureen Morgan - RIGHT

This one was spot on.

Trinity:4/6 - Anne Pryke - RIGHT

Evens - Hugh Raymond - RIGHT

Guess work would have given a similar result.

St Peter:1/80 - Kristina Moore - RIGHT

25/1 - Debbie Hardisty - RIGHT

This was spot on, but blindingly obvious.

St Helier No 3 and 4:
11/10 - Mike Higgins – IN BUT WRONG PLACE
11/10 - Jackie Hilton – IN BUT WRONG PLACE
9/4 - Richard Rondel - IN BUT WRONG PLACE
5/2 - Christian May - WRONG

5/1 - Andrew Lewis – WRONG
6/1 - Ted Vibert
8/1 - Mary Osmond
10/1 - Laura Millen
12/1 - Mary Ayling-Phillips
16/1 - John Ttokkallos

It was Andrew Lewis who crept in to the last seat, not Christian May.

St Mary:10/11 - David Johnson

10/11 - Mark Evans

Correct

St Brelade No 1:
2/11 - Mike Jackson - WRONG

5/2 - Murray Norton - WRONG
8/1 - Angela Jeune - RIGHT

Murray got in, but my guesses were that it was close. The only certainty was Angela Jeune being last, and guesswork suggested that was very likely.

St Brelade No 2:
4/6 - Montfort Tadier – IN BUT WRONG PLACE
7/4 - Peter Troy – WRONG, CAME BELOW JEFF HATHAWAY

3/1 - Natalie Duffy - RIGHT
9/2 - Graham Truscott – WRONG, GOT IN
9/2 - Jane Blakeley – WRONG, CAME LAST
8/1 - Jeff Hathaway – WRONG, CAME FOURTH
10/1 Beatriz Porée – WRONG PLACE

Graham Truscott zoomed in, while Montfort came second (and lost voter share). Peter Troy was way down below Jeff Hathaway, and Jane Blakely was bottom. This bookmaker odds could not have been more wrong.

St Clement:2/7 - Susie Pinel - RIGHT
7/4 - Gerard Baudains - WRONG

3/1 - Simon Brée - WRONG
8/1 - Darius Pearce - RIGHT

Simon Bree was the man coming in; Gerard Baudains out again.

St Helier No 1:11/10 - Scott Wickenden – RIGHT BUT WRONG PLACE
11/10 - Russell Labey - RIGHT
9/4 - Judy Martin – RIGHT BUT WRONG PLACE

7/2 - Nick Le Cornu – LOST BUT WRONG PLACE
5/1 - Shannen Kerrigan – LOST BUT WRONG PLACE
20/1 - Gino Risoli - RIGHT

Judy Martin romped home, and Scott was the last to get in. Of those losing, Nick Le Cornu did worse that the odds.

St Helier No 2:10/11 - Rod Bryans - RIGHT
Evens - Sam Mézec - RIGHT
3/1 - Geoff Southern - RIGHT

6/1 - Bernie Manning - RIGHT
6/1 - Martin Greene - RIGHT

This was extraordinary in that it was all correct, even the order.

St Ouen:
1/2 - Richard Renouf - RIGHT

7/4 - Chris Lamy - RIGHT

This was also right, but a foregone conclusion.

Constables:
St Mary:Evens - Juliette Gallichan - RIGHT

10/1 - John Le Bailly – RIGHT

This was what guesswork suggested, a close call.

Old Faces in the States

Some people have commented on this election that it is the “same old faces” in the States. That’s not entirely true, as there has been an influx of new members since 2011 across the board, although only one Senator as a new States Member, two new Constables, and a smattering of new Deputies.

But it is very much the case that most of the faces in the States are old faces. The average age of the States member is 53 ½ years old, while the median age (with as many members below as above) is 55. The average is just that bit lower than the median because of a few younger members pulling it down.

If we look at age bands, we see a heavy bias towards the older age range, with most States members being over 50.

20-29: 2
30-39: 5
40-49: 3
50-59: 24
60-69: 15

In the UK, Andrew Marr has said recently that MPs should not enter the House of Commons until they reach the age of 40. While there are some under 40 in our States, it would appear that the electorate favours Marr’s suggestion.

The greatest range is the Deputies whose ages range from Sam Mezec at 23 at the lower end of the range to David Johnson at 68 at the upper reach.

Although the Senators have a much narrower age range than Deputies, the average is only slightly higher at 55, while the median is 52 ½, slightly lower. The breakdown by banding is given below:

40-49: 2
50-59: 3
60-69: 3

The Senators range from Philip Ozouf at 44 to Sir Philip Bailhache at 68.

And so we come to the “golden oldies”, the Constables, who are clearly in the older age ranges. It was difficult to track down Michael Paddock’s age, as he declined to give it. Fortunately for my statistics, his age 3 years ago did appear in the JEP questions to candidates in 2011, when he faced an election for the post of Constable of St Ouen.

The youngest Constable is Juliette Gallichan at 52 and the oldest is Sadie Rennard at 69. The median is 58 ½ while the average is 59 2/3. The banding is as follows:

50-59: 7
60-69: 5

So while it is not the same old faces, it is definitely the case that most States members fall into an older age bracket from upper middle age (50-59) to near pension age (or indeed perhaps pension age).

And what of the three members of Reform? Their ages are 23 (Sam Mezec), 35 (Montfort Tadier) and 64 (Geoff Southern).

Their average age is 41, while the median is 35.

The Voltaire Manifesto

Vote Jim Hacker for Senator

The Voltaire Manifesto

Some fun for Friday! In Candide, Voltaire talks of "the best of all possible worlds".

This is the best of all possible Jersey manifestos, which ticks all the right boxes. It has been compiled from ALL the Senatorial manifestos. Each paragraph comes from just one manifesto See if you can guess which bits come from which manifesto, without peeking! And there is one quote sneaked in from Douglas Adam's Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency..!

Introduction

This is the most important election for decades. We must have an Assembly prepared to work together for the good of us all. More action less talk.

I believe that new people with fresh ideas will be able to understand the current issues we are facing, through an active engagement with ordinary people.

There is much more to do, these elections and the next few years will be critical. Determination and a willingness to make difficult and sometimes unpopular decisions in the public interest will be essential.

More than ever Jersey needs States Members with ability, experience, commitment and a clear vision for the future.

Economy

Times are hard in Jersey these days.

We are hopefully seeing the end of one of the deepest, darkest recessions that the Island has ever experienced.

Our island has experienced an economic downturn and unusual unemployment levels. These challenging times require clear thinking and appropriate decision making.

The financial services industry is the major plank of our economy, providing the bulk of tax revenues and much employment, and must be supported.

I support the ending of inappropriate zero-hours contracts.

Tourism and agriculture are still a vital part of Island economics and life.

I support protecting Jersey’s green and agricultural spaces.

We must ensure that we have a successful, as well as vibrant and diverse economy

We must address the division between the haves and the have not’s.

We must maintain Jersey’s independent character. Our community services and voluntary sector should be supported to the maximum extent our resources allow.

Keep GST at its lowest possible level, increased revenue for the Treasury must come from the business sector primarily.

Immigration

Jersey must get a grip on population control. However, a level of immigration must continue for skills that cannot be provided locally.

Public Sector

The government of Jersey must live within its means.

The growth in public spending is no longer sustainable. A fresh approach is urgently required.

The cost of government must be controlled.

Health

A healthy population is the basis of a healthy economy.

Failing to invest in our essential infrastructure at the right time only makes it more expensive in the long run.

There are difficult times ahead for us all but the Island has a good basis for the future.

Education

I believe a more creative and inventive approach is needed in our schools.

Tourism

It’s time to LOVE Tourism again!

Reforms

I believe States members should listen to the electorate and not dismiss their views out of hand.

I believe that the number of States members sitting in the main States Chamber should be reduced.

The debate goes on but there is still not a consensus.

Do you ever feel it’s not worth voting?

The referendum question on this matter will be voted on by the public on polling day and I will respect the public’s views on this matter.

Conclusion

I feel that it is my duty to stand for the post of Senator for many reasons, not least because I believe that Jersey should become more democratic but also because Jersey has very important global messages to broadcast.

Whilst a great deal has been achieved there is still much to do.

Further challenges remain.

I have the experience, dedication and energy to achieve this vision.

Let's think the unthinkable, let's do the undoable.

Thank you for taking the time to read this

Please vote: Dr Pangloss. Or Jim Hacker. Or Alan B'Stard.

Politicians Parachuting In

“The local party have made their views known that they wish the candidate who is selected to be a local person with strong ties to the constituency.”(UK election, St Helen’s Star, January 2014)

It is interesting to look at where the Jersey candidates for Deputies live, and where they are standing, in the Elections of 2014. Here is a list of the “invaders”, those “parachuting” in from outside.

Trinity, St Mary, St Peter, St Clement and St Ouen have contested elections, and all the candidates live within their respective Parishes.

The same is not true of St Helier.

In St Helier No 1, Russell Labey comes from St Ouen, Judy Martin from St Clement, and Scott Wickenden from St Martin.

St Helier No 2 sees Sam Mezec come in from St Saviour

St Helier No 3 and 4 sees Richard Rondel from Trinity. And Andrew Lewis comes from St John, but put his St Helier business address on his nomination paper. An attempt to ingratiate himself with a Parish that he doesn’t actually live in?

In St Saviour No 1, all are from within the Parish, but St Saviour No 2 sees Louise Doublet come in from St Helier. The remainder of the candidates live within the Parish.

St Brelade No 1 sees all candidates live in the Parish, but St Brelade No 2 sees Beatriz Poree and Natalie Duffy both from St Peter’s. It was notable on the nomination night that alone of all the candidates, their proposers left out their address, which suggests the candidates themselves felt uneasy about that.

Natalie Duffy does have a business in the Parish – the Salty Dog – but that’s actually in St Brelade No 1, so while she is very familiar with St Aubin’s and its problems, she may be less so for Les Quennevais.

Does it matter? Perhaps not. But if you live in another Parish, you may not be as aware of the day to day problems – or for that matter problems at night – as if you live in the Parish itself. It’s like the difference between someone who lives “over the shop” and someone who goes home at night.

There is bound to be a degree of detachment, a lack of local knowledge, especially with newcomers. And if there is a clash of Parish events, or Parish meetings, do they attend to their home Parish or their adopted one?

Ask yourself this: given two equally good candidates, would you prefer to be represented by Fred, who lives in the next street, and knows at first hand all about the noise at night caused by revellers leaving the pub, and the parking problems around your estate?

Or would you like to be represented by Bill, who may stop off passing through your street to post a letter or go to the shops, but lives elsewhere, in a comfortable country house? This is pretty much how part of the election battle played out between Bob le Brocq, who lived outside the Parish of St Helier, and Simon Crowcroft, who lived within the Parish.

How well can an Deputy represent people as well as an insider if he or she does not live among them and understand the problems they have? It is another question for the voter to ponder!

Mike Jackson for Deputy

I'm very pleased to put up Mike's election manifesto. His roots, and his heart is in the Parish. Mike attends many Parish Assemblies, because of his concern with Parish Matters, and I would suggest, he sees it as a civic duty to do so. So he knows the Parish well.

Mike was also an excellent Minister at TTS after Deputy Guy de Faye's abysmal time in office, and introduced low-energy lights along the St Aubin's Bay sea front, which were also much better for cyclists, pro-actively supported recycling initiatives, more bus shelters, and brought back the double decker bus to help demand for passenger numbers on the route 15. He was always receptive to new initiatives and was very much an innovator, although sensibly, as with the low-energy lights, he set up a pilot scheme first to test how well it would work. That's a very good scientific way to plan.

Photo of Mike taken at the recent Nomination Meeting

Mike Jackson for Deputy

Contact number: 743819 or 07797 719778
Email address: jacksonyacht@gmail.comWebsite: www.vote-jackson.com

Home Grown Variety

I’m a St.Breladais born and bred. I currently live in the house in which I spent my childhood

My background and training is in the marine industry. I am proprietor of a boatyard and ship chandlery shop in St.Aubin which has been trading successfully for over 30 years

I experienced a great deal during my term in office as Connétable of St.Brelade between 2005 and 2011 and as Minister of Transport and Technical Services for 3 years. I have demonstrated an ability to make difficult decisions, to deliver projects from bus shelters to residential homes to public parks and even waste incinerators. I’ve made mistakes but importantly I feel that I’ve learned much.

Why Deputy

I believe that most people crave stability and I believe in getting back to ‘grass roots’ politics and dealing effectively with local issues that concern people most. I have decided to stand as Deputy as I appreciate the need to stay in touch with those who elected me.

I would consider it an honour and privilege to be elected to this position to enable me to best help and assist Parishioners from all walks of life with their particular concerns, large or small. 6 years of experience in the States means I’m equipped to hit the ground running and get results

And What Will I Do In This Area Of The Parish?

If elected, I shall continue to use my best efforts to ensure that St.Brelade No 1 remains the pleasant place to live that we currently enjoy. I will happily challenge States Departments and Parish authority when appropriate to achieve this

I shall listen to your thoughts and ideas as to how improvements can be made if deemed necessary

I shall give active support to the Clubs and Societies in No 1 district and encourage their future development

If elected I shall relinquish my position as Constable’s officer but continue to support and encourage recruitment to the Honorary Police to ensure this backbone of the Jersey way of life continues to prosper and adapts to modern needs.

I shall seek to alter the convoluted parking management at St.Aubin by bringing it under one authority not the current 3. I believe this should be the Parish because of its central position. I shall continue to investigate the availability of further areas for parking.

I shall listen to the residents and business’ in St.Brelade’s bay and St.Aubin with a view to maintaining the character of the areas as proposed in the 2011 Island Plan.

I shall invite suggestions on how to improve and make roads and paths safe for walkers and cyclists within the district.

I shall watch for inappropriate over development and ensure neighbours receive due respect in the planning process.

Most importantly, I shall be available to listen to all.

What Will I do In The Island As A Whole?

If elected, I shall support the delivery of healthcare fit for the 21st Century

I shall support the raising of standards in our schools and support young people with their aspirations.

I consider we must make far more effort to help those leaving school fulfil their chosen career paths whether it be through further education or in acquiring vocational skills.

I shall support our Heritage and the arts

I shall support investment in our roads and infrastructure

I shall support diversification of our economy

I shall support prudent investment in our finance, tourism and agricultural industries

I shall support investment in our waste strategies to comply with the latest environmental standards.

I shall continue to question all States expenditure to ensure the public receive good value.

I shall focus on reducing excessive States expenditure and strongly resist any taxation increases.

I shall encourage a revision of the licencing laws which are no longer fit for purpose.

I shall ensure strict adherence to immigration policies whilst recognising genuine business need.

I shall be conscious of world events and the effects of extremism

I shall listen and learn.

What I Won’t Do!

I will not support development on green fields.

I will not support anti-social behaviour.

I will not support complex GST exemption schemes which will lead to an increase in the rate.

I will not support long debates in the States on reform. These achieve nothing and prevent members engaging in meaningful duties.

I will not support wasteful States expenditure on enquiries and reports which more often than not should and can be done ‘in house’.

Aspirations in the States

My primary responsibility, should I be honoured to be elected Deputy, would be to St.Brelades No 1

My First Nomination Night

Procureur Peter Norman keeps proceedings in order.

It may come as something of a surprise to those of you who think I am a political animal, but I have never actually been to a nomination meeting for an election, whether for Constable, Deputy or Senator. So this was my first!

If you have seen the blog heading, and thought I was being nominated, I've caught you out!

All the supporters turn up at the Parish Hall, along with the candidates themselves, although strictly speaking their presence is not required.

In the case of St Brelade, Procureur Peter Norman took the chair , with the Parish Secretary beside him, and he guided proceedings from start to finish very well, actually making the reading of the standard blurb about proceedings sound interesting. Peter himself did actually face a contested election for Procureur earlier this year, which he won by a landslide.

Julian Bernstein and his bow tie proposes Steve Pallett. 

The first position was that of Constable, and Julian Bernstein proposed Steve Pallett. It was a good heartfelt, speech, and done without notes [apart from reading the nomination paper] which was extremely impressive. No one else was nominated, but we had to wait for a few minutes in case of a last minute nomination.

In the break, Steve Pallett, chatting with Margi Holland Prior

There will be a lot of criticism about unopposed Constables, but if the critics cared that much, they would find a candidate to stand against him - or him and her in other Parishes. Instead, expect the usual comments on Facebook and Twitter. Incidentally, there was a Constable's election in Grouville earlier this year; it is hardly likely that another would take place.

Actually if a Constable was really unpopular for various reasons, the chances are they would probably stand down anyway. Both Len Downer and Graham Butcher decided not to stand because for different reasons, each had alienated the electorate, one by dividing the Parish, the other by abusing the trust of his office. Others, like Peter Hanning, have fought a campaign, but lost because in his case, he had promoted a property development that most of his Parishioners did not want.

But there is nothing to stop any critic standing, just doing hustings and online, and taking their vote as a measure of the unpopularity of the current incumbent. The fact that they don’t suggests they know there is little point in standing for the sake of it.

Now it was time for the Deputies, and as the Constable had signed a Senatorial nomination paper, he though it more impartial to let the Procureur continue in the Chair.

Nominations came for St Brelade No 1, and these were for the following:

Angela Jeune
Mike Jackson
Murray Norton

Monty Tadier discusses his proposer's speech.

Then came St Brelade No 2

Beatriz Poree
Graham Truscott
Jane Blakeley
Jeff Hathaway
Montfort Tadier
Natalie Duffy
Peter Troy

The proposers spoke, and both listed the people on the nomination form, as well as saying something nice about the candidate and why they would be an asset to be in the States. They handed the forms to the Procurer. They had 3 minutes, after which a bell told them they had 30 seconds. Only Mr Truscott’s proposer went past the first bell, past the second, and looked likely to carry on for another ten minutes when the rather annoyed murmurings from the crowd shut him up.

Peter Slater proposes Jeff Hathaway

After each proposer, the Procureur read the relevant piece on the form about how the candidate is to be known, how they have signed the paper saying they understand article such and such of the election law.

The candidates, after all proposals, took the opportunity to thank their nominees and anyone else who has supported them. This was not meant to be a political speech, as the Procureur reminded them: this was not a hustings. Most of them were pretty short and to the point.

Peter Troy was humbled that his friends had said thee were privileged to sign his paper, and I thought for a moment, he might burst into tears. Jeff Hathaway mentioned in addition to his proposer and nomination, thanks to his wife, which was rather nice. He was the only candidate to thank a partner. And Graham Truscott, evidently taking the lead from his proposer, launched into a cut down bullet point version of his election manifesto, naughty man!

Beatriz Poree thanks her proposer and nominees

There were two extra speakers, outgoing Deputies John Young and Sean Power. They each thanked those who had voted for them, said how they were privileged to have served their districts.

Sean said: "I thanked the Parishioners of St. Brelade for the privilege of serving them as a Deputy for Quennevais and La Moye for nine years and told the seven prospective candidates of that privilege."

Sean Power thanks St Brelade No 2

And there was a get together of each district’s candidates for a photo shoot., which enabled me to get one of my own, unfortunately only for St Brelade District 2.

More pictures of the whole evening can be seen at:

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10152645288275600.1073742058.743095599&type=1&l=e4a9baa40b

St Brelade No 2 Candidates

 Some other photos:

"Murray's Phone In" as someone's mobile goes off.

Exchanging Secret Handshakes

Sara Ferguson shares a joke

John Young

Peter Troy and Angela Jeune

20 Senatorial Candidates

Candidates for Senator

Short blog today, the following 20 are standing for Senator.

Sarah Ferguson, currently Senator

Alan Maclean, currently Senator

Ian Gorst, currently Senator

Philip Ozouf, currently Senator

Paul Routier, currently Senator

Philip Bailhache, currently Senator

Lyndon Farnham, currently Senator



Sean Power, currently Deputy

Andrew Green, currently Deputy

John Young, currently Deputy



Anne Southern, wife of Deputy Geoff Southern, Reform Candidate

Zoe Anne Cameron, a St Ouen's GP.

Malcolm Ferey, Citizens Advice Bureau manager

Chris Magee, campaigner for cannabis legalisation

David Richardson, who works in Finance

Guy de Faye, Ex news presenter and former Deputy

Geoff Habin, businessman

Shirley Baudains Osbourne (originally was in States as Shirley Baudains)

Konrad Kruszynski, first Polishman

Charles Malcolm Hungerford, businessman



Senator Alan Breckon has decided not to stand.

Yes Campaign Launch

Vote for YES!
A campaign is launched today to show the benefit and necessity of the Parish Constable, and their integral role within the States.

A group of people from around the Island including both political and non-political representatives have emerged in order to coordinate a campaign for Islanders to vote ‘YES’ in the forthcoming referendum on the continuing role of the Constable within the States Assembly

Chaired by the Constable of St Brelade, Steve Pallett, the group will hold their Campaign Launch Meeting for supporters of the Constables in the Town Hall on Tuesday 9th September at 19:00.

On the importance of the Constable, Steve Pallett said that, “When I first stood for election in 2005 with a local political party, I was against the Constables having an automatic right to sit in the States once elected by parishioners, and fought a Constable election with their removal as part of my manifesto. However having seen first hand the representative work that the Constables do while serving as a Centenier and more recently in my first term as Constable of St.Brelade, the benefit of their maturity and sensibility within the Assembly, I have since changed my mind”.

The Vote for Yes team intend to hold public road shows around the Island prior to the Referendum which is being held on the same day as the General Election. The Road Shows will consist of a presentation followed by a Question and Answer session with a selected panel.

“We want the public to be aware that they are better off with their Constables in the States than they would be without them there” said Deputy Luce, another member of the Vote For Yes team. “Parish rates have remained steady for well over 10 years now, which is impressive when you compare it to benefits such as welfare that are now administered centrally.”

The campaign group as a whole are equally concerned by elements of the ‘Property Tax Review’ put forward by the Minister for Treasury and Resources and in particular Section 4 of the paper relating to ‘Modernising the basis for charging annual property taxes’, suggesting that the current rates system shows a ‘lack of transparency’ and ‘allows only a low level of revenue to be raised’, heightens fears that a centrally administered rates system is in the pipeline that could only mean higher rates bills for islanders and further centrally administered costs.

Members of the public who are supportive are being urged to attend the Launch Meeting, in order to learn more about the Campaign, and to hear from prominent Islanders who agree with the Constables maintaining their position in the States.

Press Release from Murray Norton

I learned last night that Murray Norton is standing in the forthcoming elections for Deputy in St Brelade, Number 1. Today's guest posting is therefore a press release which I received from Murray, and which I am sharing with my readers.
 
Press Release from Murray Norton
 
PRESS RELEASE
Embargoed until 00.01 22nd August 2014
 
Following many requests, having sought advice from family, friends and those with extensive political experience and after careful consideration, I am delighted to declare my intention to stand for election as Deputy in the Parish of St Brelade, District No.1.
 
St.Aubin is not only where I live, but also where my wife and I run two successful restaurants. This is clearly the right district for me to represent.
 
As many will know, my background has been in the media, with both BBC Radio Jersey & Channel 103fm and on stage in the world of entertainment. In business I have worked within the hospitality industry with restaurants and previously in retail. I have throughout this time committed more than the past thirty years to charitable fundraising for local charities and those in need. I am positive that the skills learnt during these times will enable me to represent the wishes of the people of this district.
 
I have, as of this week retired from presenting radio programmes after thirty years to focus on listening to the issues and concerns of those I hope to represent and to prepare for the forthcoming election campaign.
 
My manifesto will be published on the 17th September 2014 for the nominations meeting.
 
Thank you
Murray Norton