Insecticides and the Balance of Nature

"The Ladybug wears no disguises.
She is just what she advertises.
A speckled spectacle of spring,
A fashion statement on the wing....
A miniature orange kite.

A tiny dot-to-dot delight."
(J. Patrick Lewis)

Although the pesticide found in water supplies was an anti-fungal, the use of other pesticides against insects is still widespread.

So here is an article from “The Pilot” (the magazine for Anglican Churches in Jersey), which warns about the dangers of those sprays which destroy insects. The message still needs to be heard, for insecticides are still in use, despite the warnings here.

This article, by the way, was written in 1976, which just goes to show that these environmental concerns have been present for a very long time.

Insecticides and the Balance of Nature
By Roger Harris, Fellow of the Royal Entomological Society

For centuries note, gardeners have fought a long and hard battle against that pest with a thousand mouths - the aphid - better known to vegetable growers as blackfly, to rose lovers as greenfly, or to greenhouse owners as whitefly. These three belong to a very large group of insects related to bugs.

In the days of the past gardeners tackled these pests by a long and laborious process of crushing them with their fingers, or perhaps spraying them with a solution of soapy water mixed with the liquid from boiled rhubarb leaves. No need for such trouble nowadays.

Every garden shop sells ready mixed sprays in aerosol form and systemic insecticides which can be watered into the soil around the plant.

These systemic insecticides are taken up through the roots of the plant itself, which then becomes entirely poisonous to those who suck its sap or eat its leaves.

When we treat our greenhouse, spray our roses, or water poisons around our cabbages, we are completely ignoring the possibility that we might be harming other things too, that indirectly we might be helping the very beasts we wish to destroy. No type of animal is an island, entire of itself.

Aphids have existed on this Earth for many millions of years, and during this time have become tangled in a very complex web of relationships with other animals and plants around them. Long before man came onto the scene the number of aphids was kept in careful check by an army of small insects, including ladybirds, who always managed to eat enough of them to keep the aphid hordes under control.

When our modern gardener finds some blackfly on his beans and some greenfly on his roses, he sprays the beans and waters the soil beneath the roses with systemic insecticide.

Soon the healthy and active aphids are reduced to little stumbling bags of poison, which easily fall prey to any hungry ladybirds or other aphid eaters in the area. Now most of these insecticides are non-selective, that is they are deadly to all and sundry who devour them.

And so they not only poison the aphid but ladybirds are poisoned too, and so are the many other creatures which chance to feed on the poisoned carcases.

It is a law of nature that there are always fewer of the hunting animals than the smaller animals which they feed on. And so, in our modern garden, there is a great danger that we will poison most of the hunters which normally eat our aphids for us.

Soon, fresh supplies of aphids will invade the plants which we are protecting. The common blackfly which eats our beans and cabbages also breeds on poppies and on dock, and so reinforcements are soon at hand.

Not so the aphid feeders, the ladybirds and others. They are scarcer and they breed more slowly, and if all our neighbours are using poisons then they may not be replaced at all. We will have killed the aphid's natural enemies.

The blackfly, and all his relatives, may start to romp uncontrolled over the docks in the hedgerow. They will breed rapidly, and amongst their offspring there may be some which are immune to the poisons we use. We will be much worse off than we were when we started.

Now you see why I spray the aphids in my garden with soap solution mixed with the liquid from boiled rhubarb leaves, and crush them off the plants with a pair of old rubber gloves.

Pesticides and Groundwater

Traces of Oxadixyl have been found in local water, despite it not being used in pesticides in the Island since around 2003, although it is of course likely that any stockpiles may have been in use for a year or two after that.  It is a fungicide, designed to prevent potato blight.

The manufacturers decided not to renew its licensing in 2003, meaning that its license lapsed. Part of the reason for this was that the EU produced a list of active ingredients to be removed in July 2003 under Directive 91/414/EEC. Oxadixyl was one of 320 pesticide active ingredients removed as a result, which is why its licence was not renewed.

Interestingly, back in 2003, taking into account the 19 pesticides already banned by the Commission, the 320 about to go and the 150 followed, represented a loss of more than 60% of all the pesticides that were on the market in 1993.

Pesticides themselves have a limited effectiveness because of evolution. As the Berkeley Understanding Evolution site notes:

“Pest insects have short generation times and large population sizes — which means that they evolve quickly. If pesticides are widely applied, or if fields are widely planted with pesticide-producing plants, insects resistant to the pesticide will evolve. Some degree of resistance has been documented for every major class of insecticide used in agriculture”

But this process can be slowed by what are termed “refugia” — they are fields without pesticides (sprayed or plant-produced) located near fields planted with pesticide-producing crops. They provide havens in which providing havens in which the non-resistant insects survive.

If a resistant insect (rr) surviving field mates with a non-resistant insect (RR) surviving in the refuge, their offspring may either be mixed, some non-resistant (Rr), or if the non-resistant gene is recessive, as has been found with some insects, all of their offspring will be non-resistant (Rr).

Recognizing how our short-term solutions are likely to affect evolving insect populations, and the evolutionary impact can lead us to manage pesticides better.

So why have the traces of Oxadixyl been seen now?

As USGS reported in 2006:

“Ground water responds more slowly than stream water to changes in pesticide use. A persistent pesticide or degradate can remain in ground water long after its use is discontinued because of the slow rates of ground-water flow and the resulting long residence time of water and pesticides in ground-water flow systems.”

It suggested the following priorities:

- Improve tracking of pesticide use in agricultural and non-agricultural areas, including amounts, locations, and timing
- Add assessments of pesticides not yet studied, including some already in use as well as new pesticides
- Improve assessment and understanding of degradates, including their distribution and potential effects
- Evaluate toxicities of mixtures and their potential to affect humans, aquatic life, and wildlife
- Evaluate the performance of management practices and their effects on concentrations and transport of pesticides
- Improve methods for prediction of pesticide levels in unmonitored areas
- Sustain and expand long-term monitoring for trends

Cornell University has an article from 2012 - “Pesticides and Groundwater: A Guide for the Pesticide User”: which notes that:

“Cleanup of groundwater contaminated by pesticides often is impossible, and the contamination may last for many years. The cold temperatures and low microbial activity in groundwater cause pesticide degradation to occur more slowly than at the soil surface. The slow movement of groundwater means that it may take decades for the contaminated water to flow beyond the affected wells.”

“Even determining which wells will be affected and for how long is a difficult problem, necessitating expensive long-range monitoring to ensure the safety of drinking water supplies. Clearly, the best solution is to keep pesticides out of groundwater through careful storage, use, and disposal practices.”

“Many pesticides bind strongly to soil and are therefore immobile. For those that are mobile in soil, their leaching to groundwater can be thought of as a race in time between their degradation into nontoxic by-products and their transport to groundwater.”

“If the pesticide is not readily degraded and moves freely with water percolating downward through the soil, the likelihood of it reaching groundwater is relatively high. If, however, the pesticide degrades quickly or is tightly bound to soil particles, then it is more likely to be retained in the upper soil layers until it is degraded to nontoxic by- products.”

This particular contaminant in Jersey water is low levels, and does not pose a threat to water users of mains water, although bore-hole users need to get their water checked. As a precautionary measure, however, Val de la Mare reservoir has been shut off from the mains water supply.

But it does serve perhaps as a wake-up call to what has already been known elsewhere about pesticides and groundwater, and how the pesticide can remain there for decades. Next time, we may not be so lucky.

Sheltering from the Storm

Sheltering from the Storm

“Decision(s): The Minister approved the installation of seven bus shelters at the following bus stop locations: Red Houses Shops S, Clos Orange N, The Limes, Rose Farm E, La Hougue Avenue S, Hameau de la Mer W and Airport Garages N.”

“Reason(s) for Decision: To provide bus shelters at suitable locations to improve facilities for bus users, in accordance with the States of Jersey Strategic Plan and the Sustainable Transport Policy.”

Eddie Noel is continuing with his predecessors policy - Mike Jackson - who initiated the policy  and Kevin Lewis who continued it - of getting more bus shelters available, and while this may not make headline news in the JEP, I think it is of vital importance for a sustainable transport system. 

  

The reason for this is that when the weather is fine, more people tend to use the bus, when it is bad, they take to their cars. 

As a report in the Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 15, No. 1, 2012 noted:

“Adverse weather conditions such as rain, snow, fog, wind, or extreme temperatures may cause people to shift transportation modes or avoid traveling at all. The issue is important to transit agencies. If weather was shown to have a significant impact on ridership, agencies could take steps to mitigate the effects of weather, such as installing more shelters at transit stations, in order to maximize passenger comfort and ridership.”

The study looked at statistics in Pierce County, Washington as a sample case study, but also noted that the results are generally applicable elsewhere. 

In particicular, regarding buses, it commented that:

“Rain was the only variable that was significant in all four seasons. One inch (2.5 cm) of rain resulted in decreases in ridership of 1,777 (5.05%) for winter, 3,650 (9.73%) for spring, 2,726 (7.36%) for summer, and 2,304 (5.97%) for autumn. These results are logical, as rainy weather makes waiting for a bus in the rain unpleasant if no shelter is provided. When it rains, many people likely switch to automobiles for transportation if that mode provides a more comfortable experience.”

So one significant fact is that more shelters can help. As the report notes: “One way to improve the comfort of waiting passengers is by placing shelters at stops, which provide weather protection and a place to sit”

The addition of 7 extra bus stops in Jersey will certainly help retain passengers in bad weather, and is to be commended.

And more are on the way. Deputy Eddie Noel was kind enough to give me the details, saving the cost of a Freedom of Information request. He noted:

“We have 48 bus shelters of "our own" (TTS) in situ (of which 41 have been installed since 2010).  A further four await installation, the contractor is making good progress and it looks like they'll all be finished this side of Christmas. That will take us to 52 TTS shelters “

“In addition there are another 20 waiting shelters owned/administered by other parties e.g. Parishes”

“That makes 72 in total as at the end of 2015.”

And he also informs me by email that more are to come during 2016.

Water: Why We Must Not Be Complacent

Yesterday I wrote:

"We have not felt the effects of water scarcity here in Jersey, and continue to regard fresh water at the turn of a tap as something which, if we pay our water rates, will be readily available."

My correspondent James wrote:

"Not so. Two things:"

"- there are still people who do not have mains water - rather more than you'd think. Even H remembers when our house relied on a water tank topped up by Mr De La Haye. People in that circumstance tend to be more cautious about water usage, for fear of suddenly finding themselves without."

"- there are also people who live here who have had to come to terms with water scarcity outside Jersey. We are two: we lived through the 2007 flood in Gloucestershire which meant there was no mains water at all for a month for a third of a million people. "

I beg to differ.

Copying With Acute Shortages

While there was no mains water for a month in Gloucestershire, being part of England, other water supplies could be brought in, if not perhaps with ease, without too much logistical problem. As Jersey Water notes:

“We have limited underground reserves of water and no links to external water networks so we rely on the collection and storage of surface water for most of our mains supply”

In Gloucester, there were links to external water networks available.

The same cannot be said of an Island. If our supply is short, there is very little scope. In 2011 the island's reserves were so low the company looked into possibly importing water from Norway. The cost and logistics of that were not detailed; in fact, it may have only been a possible idea.

Cautious About Water
While a minority do not have mains water, it still remains relatively small compared with the total population of the Island. And I would imagine that even caution at home may not extend to caution at the office in St Helier, for example, where the knowledge will exist that there is more water available than at home. Do habits of rural home use transfer to an urban office environment? 

Jersey Water has good resources on its website, and excellent statistics on use, but more needs to be done by the States to educate the public.

Habitually though, droughts and restrictions to supply comes as a shock. Back in the 1980s, before Queen’s Valley was flooded, there would be restrictions on home supply, usually – much to grumbles from Islanders – just after the tourist season had ended.

There is a lag in water supply, and it was when rainfall in September failed to materialise that measures would be put in place. In offices, it was suggested that bricks be put in cisterns.

As a recent episode of Bergerac noted, the population increased hugely during the tourist season. That is no longer the case, but now the population has exceeded that level – on a permanently year round basis.

Water metering has been one answer, but if a major reservoir is out of action, it is bound to have an impact. This year Queen’s Valley Reservoir was been taken out of service in April after an algal bloom developed in the water supply. When Val de La Mare was out of action, the desalination plant was in use. It is however a stop gap, to ease problems, but it costs, and it is not a total solution: the island is not sustainable in water from the plant. Indeed, as mentioned, in 2011 the island's reserves were so low the company looked into possibly importing water from Norway.

John Falle, writing in the JEP that year, said:

“Jersey Water has just warned us that it is considering buying in water from Norway. It has also said that the desalination plant has been running at full capacity for some time. These are two very expensive sources of water. The reason for these contingencies is that Jersey’s water is down to about one third of its capacity due to the prolonged dry spell. Demand is outstripping supply by a considerable margin.”

And he asked this question, for which no answer is yet forthcoming, as it strikes at the heart of the immigration debate:

“What consideration, I wonder, does Planning give to the long-term water requirement of the many award winning development schemes proliferating all over the Island?”

This year, Jersey Water reported: The effects of the warm summer and additional customer connections meant that demand for water in 2014 was 0.5% higher than the previous year.

Note the “additional customer connections”. Each new application should state on average (based on past statistics) how much extra water it is likely to take from the water supply so we can build up a picture. Otherwise, we are likely to face strains to our water supply resilience.

Extracts from On Care for Our Common Home

The encyclical on the environment by Pope Francis I is well worth reading, not least because he is addressing issues of vital importance to everyone. Here are a few extracts from his introduction, and on water scarcity.

We have not felt the effects of water scarcity here in Jersey, and continue to regard fresh water at the turn of a tap as something which, if we pay our water rates, will be readily available. But the Island’s water resources are stretched, especially in times of drought, and there is a limit to the water available for a given size of population.

And a recent report also noted the levels of nitrates invading the Jersey water supply, because our system is tight knit and not enough care has been taken to note the impacts of how we farm or deal with surface run off from private land upon our water supply.

Extracts from On Care for Our Common Home
By Pope Francis I

Introduction

“Praise be to you, my Lord”. In the words of this beautiful canticle, Saint Francis of Assisi reminds us that our common home is like a sister with whom we share our life and a beautiful mother who opens her arms to embrace us. “Praise be to you, my Lord, through our Sister, Mother Earth, who sustains and governs us, and who produces various fruit with coloured flowers and herbs”

This sister now cries out to us because of the harm we have inflicted on her by our irresponsible use and abuse of the goods with which God has endowed her. We have come to see ourselves as her lords and masters, entitled to plunder her at will.

The violence present in our hearts, wounded by sin, is also reflected in the symptoms of sickness evident in the soil, in the water, in the air and in all forms of life. This is why the earth herself, burdened and laid waste, is among the most abandoned and maltreated of our poor; she “groans in travail” (Rom 8:22). We have forgotten that we ourselves are dust of the earth (cf. Gen 2:7); our very bodies are made up of her elements, we breathe her air and we receive life and refreshment from her waters.

Patriarch Bartholomew has spoken in particular of the need for each of us to repent of the ways we have harmed the planet, for “inasmuch as we all generate small ecological damage”, we are called to acknowledge “our contribution, smaller or greater, to the disfigurement and destruction of creation”.

He has repeatedly stated this firmly and persuasively, challenging us to acknowledge our sins against creation: “For human beings… to destroy the biological diversity of God’s creation; for human beings to degrade the integrity of the earth by causing changes in its climate, by stripping the earth of its natural forests or destroying its wetlands; for human beings to contaminate the earth’s waters, its land, its air, and its life – these are sins”. For “to commit a crime against the natural world is a sin against ourselves and a sin against God”.

The Vision of Francis of Assisi

Francis helps us to see that an integral ecology calls for openness to categories which transcend the language of mathematics and biology, and take us to the heart of what it is to be human. Just as happens when we fall in love with someone, whenever he would gaze at the sun, the moon or the smallest of animals, he burst into song, drawing all other creatures into his praise. He communed with all creation, even preaching to the flowers, inviting them “to praise the Lord, just as if they were endowed with reason”.

Such a conviction cannot be written off as naive romanticism, for it affects the choices which determine our behaviour. If we approach nature and the environment without this openness to awe and wonder, if we no longer speak the language of fraternity and beauty in our relationship with the world, our attitude will be that of masters, consumers, ruthless exploiters, unable to set limits on their immediate needs. By contrast, if we feel intimately united with all that exists, then sobriety and care will well up spontaneously. The poverty and austerity of Saint Francis were no mere veneer of asceticism, but something much more radical: a refusal to turn reality into an object simply to be used and controlled.

In many parts of the planet, the elderly lament that once beautiful landscapes are now covered with rubbish. Industrial waste and chemical products utilized in cities and agricultural areas can lead to bioaccumulation in the organisms of the local population, even when levels of toxins in those places are low. Frequently no measures are taken until after people’s health has been irreversibly affected.

These problems are closely linked to a throwaway culture which affects the excluded just as it quickly reduces things to rubbish. To cite one example, most of the paper we produce is thrown away and not recycled. It is hard for us to accept that the way natural ecosystems work is exemplary: plants synthesize nutrients which feed herbivores; these in turn become food for carnivores, which produce significant quantities of organic waste which give rise to new generations of plants.

But our industrial system, at the end of its cycle of production and consumption, has not developed the capacity to absorb and reuse waste and by-products. We have not yet managed to adopt a circular model of production capable of preserving resources for present and future generations, while limiting as much as possible the use of non-renewable resources, moderating their consumption, maximizing their efficient use, reusing and recycling them. A serious consideration of this issue would be one way of counteracting the throwaway culture which affects the entire planet, but it must be said that only limited progress has been made in this regard.

On Water

We all know that it is not possible to sustain the present level of consumption in developed countries and wealthier sectors of society, where the habit of wasting and discarding has reached unprecedented levels. The exploitation of the planet has already exceeded acceptable limits and we still have not solved the problem of poverty.

Fresh drinking water is an issue of primary importance, since it is indispensable for human life and for supporting terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Sources of fresh water are necessary for health care, agriculture and industry. Water supplies used to be relatively constant, but now in many places demand exceeds the sustainable supply, with dramatic consequences in the short and long term. Large cities dependent on significant supplies of water have experienced periods of shortage, and at critical moments these have not always been administered with sufficient oversight and impartiality.

Water poverty especially affects Africa where large sectors of the population have no access to safe drinking water or experience droughts which impede agricultural production. Some countries have areas rich in water while others endure drastic scarcity.

One particularly serious problem is the quality of water available to the poor. Every day, unsafe water results in many deaths and the spread of water-related diseases, including those caused by micro organisms and chemical substances. Dysentery and cholera, linked to inadequate hygiene and water supplies, are a significant cause of suffering and of infant mortality.

Underground water sources in many places are threatened by the pollution produced in certain mining, farming and industrial activities, especially in countries lacking adequate regulation or controls. It is not only a question of industrial waste. Detergents and chemical products, commonly used in many places of the world, continue to pour into our rivers, lakes and seas.

Even as the quality of available water is constantly diminishing, in some places there is a growing tendency, despite its scarcity, to privatize this resource, turning it into a commodity subject to the laws of the market. Yet access to safe drinkable water is a basic and universal human right, since it is essential to human survival and, as such, is a condition for the exercise of other human rights.

Our world has a grave social debt towards the poor who lack access to drinking water, because they are denied the right to a life consistent with their inalienable dignity. This debt can be paid partly by an increase in funding to provide clean water and sanitary services among the poor.

But water continues to be wasted, not only in the developed world but also in developing countries which possess it in abundance. This shows that the problem of water is partly an educational and cultural issue, since there is little awareness of the seriousness of such behaviour within a context of great inequality.

The Origins of Father’s Day

The Origins of Father’s Day

Father's Day is a national holiday in the United States and in Britain, celebrated on the third Sunday of June every year.

Often seen as something of a poor relation to “Mother’s Day” / “Mothering Sunday”, Father’s Day is a later but significant institution historically.

The story of Mother’s day, and why the date it differs in Britain and the USA can be read here.

http://tonymusings.blogspot.com/2014/03/myths-of-mothering-sunday.html

In particular, if there was a pre-Reformation celebration of that name, it has left no trace in the sources, which is certainly an oddity. One would expect some mention of it, but there is none. The earliest historical reference seems to date from the 17th century, and seems to have been geographically localised in England and not widespread. There is no evidence of a medieval ceremony about “Mother Church”, and it may have in fact originated as part of the cult of “Mother Mary”.

Ronald Hutton notes that: “In America, Miss Anna Jarvis caused the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States to legislate in 1913 that the second Sunday in May should be set aside as a national day of remembrance of mothers.”

This was revived in England in the 1920s Constance Smith but linked to the fading practice of Mothering Sunday, which is why it has the earlier Lenten date.

But Father’s day began with a local tragedy. In December 1907, a mine explosion in the Fairmont Coal Company mines in Monongah killed more than 360 men, many of them fathers. Grace Golden Clayton, a resident of Fairmont, West Virginia, petitioned for a Father’s Day to remember that lost fatherhood. This was a one-time commemoration.

But that was not the end of the idea:

“A Spokane, Washington woman named Sonora Smart Dodd, one of six children raised by a widower, tried to establish an official equivalent to Mother’s Day for male parents. She went to local churches, the YMCA, shopkeepers and government officials to drum up support for her idea, and she was successful: Washington State celebrated the nation’s first state-wide Father’s Day on July 19, 1910. Slowly, the holiday spread.” (1)

Why did she do it? It was because she could not celebrate Mother’s Day. She heard a Mother’s Day sermon in 1909, and it reminded her of her own mother, who died in childbirth and left her husband to raise their six children alone.

 She thought his contribution to her life, as a single parent, should also be celebrated and was inspired to honour her father by proposing the idea for a Father’s Day celebration to local religious leaders. Dodd wanted the celebration to be held in June because it was her father's birth month. 

It is worth noting that the Parable of the Prodigal Son is all about a father and his sons; the mother is absent. Perhaps offstage, or perhaps that father too can be seen as emblematic of single parent families where a father brings up his children.

“Dodd asked the pastor at her local Methodist church to dedicate a day to honour fathers on July 5, 1908 -- the Sunday closest to the birthday of her late father, who was a Methodist preacher. On June 19, 1910, pastors throughout the city delivered sermons honouring fathers, and news quickly spread around the country. In the following years, similar celebrations were held in Chicago, Miami and Portland, Oregon.” (2)

“The movement grew for years but didn't gain national-event status until 1924 under former President Calvin Coolidge. He said it would "establish more intimate relations between fathers and their children" and "impress upon fathers the full measure of their obligations” (3)

But there was resistance as well. As one historian noted, men “scoffed at the holiday’s sentimental attempts to domesticate manliness with flowers and gift-giving, or they derided the proliferation of such holidays as a commercial gimmick to sell more products–often paid for by the father himself.”

And there was a commercial element. In the Recession, struggling retailers and advertisers redoubled their efforts to make Father’s Day a “second Christmas” promoting goods such as neckties, hats, socks, pipes and tobacco, golf clubs and other sporting goods, and greeting cards.

But this didn’t really have an effect until the Second World War

“When World War II began, advertisers began to argue that celebrating Father’s Day was a way to honour American troops and support the war effort. By the end of the war, Father’s Day may not have been a federal holiday, but it was a national institution.” (1)

In 1972, in the middle of a hard-fought presidential re-election campaign, Richard Nixon signed a proclamation making Father’s Day a federal holiday at last.

Rev. David Weekley, pastor of St. Nicholas United Methodist Church in Hull, Massachusetts says that:

"For me, the importance of Father’s Day is to acknowledge the importance of close bonds, loving relationships and unconditional love that endures all the joys and pains, ups and downs of human relationships".

It is painful for him, because he is a transgender man, whose children have turned against him. But his own experience has caused him to see what the heart of Father’s day is about – about the unconditional love of a father for his children. He says:

"I cannot force my adult children to return the love I carry for them. As a father I continue to wait, much like another father about whom Jesus shared a parable.

"That story was about a prodigal son, but it includes the patient and eternally hopeful waiting and watching of an abandoned father. Jesus said this is how God loves us: unconditionally, no matter what. This is how I love my children as well, even the ones who have journeyed far from me in space and spirit."

Links
1) http://www.history.com/topics/holidays/fathers-day
2) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/19/fathers-day-religious-history_n_7566102.html
3) http://www.ibtimes.com/fathers-day-history-9-interesting-facts-you-may-not-know-about-holiday-its-origins-1975312

Making Waves

Deputy Steve Luce @DeputySteveLuce on Twitter:

Travelling to Alderney today with @MurrayNorton to discuss CI Renewable energy...hoping for some electrifying discussion....‪#‎workingtogether

Rob Duhamel talked a lot about renewable energy, but I don’t recall him every going to Alderney. It’s good that Steve Luce is going to see what is happening, because this kind of renewable energy could well be part of Jersey’s future as well.

The three main kinds of renewable energy sources available for Jersey are:

Solar – needs light, sunlight is best, but in fact any light can generate electricity, as people with watches or calculators powered by light will testify. This is the photoelectric effect which uses the property that some metals emit electrons when light shines upon them.

Light can eject electrons even if its intensity is low, a fact explained by Einstein in a paper published in 1905, and for which he received the Nobel Prize for Science in 1921. C.P. Snow attributes this to the theory of relativity (special and general) being relatively too new for the Nobel committee at the time.

The advantage of solar power is that it requires relatively little maintenance, as it has no moving parts.

Wind power – which is dependent on the fickle nature of the weather. That’s the main drawback, as well as the fact that it has moving parts, which are likely to wear out.

Wave power – the tides and currents follow pretty regular patterns, so tidal power systems are much more ideal as they can supply a much more regular power than wind. They do have parts that can wear out, and cabling is needed undersea to carry the power, so the technology has tended to lag behind wind turbines, which are relatively easy to throw up and connect into existing land systems.

Regarding Alderney, in June 2014, Michael Lewis, project managerof development projects, OpenHydro, stated that:

“OpenHydro and Alderney Renewable Energy (ARE) have recently formed Race Tidal Ltd to do just that. Together, these two companies intend to harness the energy in the waters around Alderney in order to generate enough electricity to power 150,000 homes. The formation of Race Tidal is the first step in a complex and challenging process to develop a 300 MW tidal energy array. This will be one of the largest tidal energy arrays in the world when it is constructed in 2020.”

The engineer also throws in a fascinating nugget of history:

"Taking advantage of the energy stored in the tides is certainly not a new concept. In fact, there is evidence that tidal barrage-style mills were in operation as far back as Roman times. These mills made use of the tide by trapping water in reservoirs when the tide was high, and then allowing the water to exit through waterwheels as the tide went out. The waterwheels provided the mechanical power to mill grain.”

The difference is that the new system uses “in stream” tidal power generation. It is explained as follows:

“These turbines are located in the tidal flow, where they extract energy from the flow of water associated with the tides. This resolves many of the environmental issues associated with barrage generation, as there is minimal impact on the flows around the turbines and there is no requirement for significant civil works like dams or reservoirs. In the case of the OpenHydro technology, no infrastructure is visible above the surface of the water.”

How is the project planned?

The first thing to do is to put down “acoustic doppler current profilers” around Alderney – these are tidal flow measuring devices which look at the waves and turbulence and build up a picture of what is going on beneath the surface. The data collected can - with modern technology - feed into 3D models to see where it is best to site turbines.

The seabed will also be checked by surveys which use multi-beam echo sounders, side scan sonar and magnetometer. This means that a picture can be built up of the underwater depth of the sea floor (which is termed “bathymetry” and the geological characteristics of the area can also be noted. It will also look for the presence of any metallic objects on or under the seabed, such as cables, shipwrecks or unexploded ordinance!

And over a two year period there will also be a baseline assessment of the marine environment, looking at marine life on the seabed, the abundance of seabirds above, different kinds of fish and mammals in the waters, and general marine traffic through the area. Any sites of archeological interest will also be noted. It is important to make sure that there is minimal environmental impact resulting from the project..

The power generated would be far in excess of that needed for Alderney, and most of the electricity will go to the South of England and France via an interconnector link.

This is, of necessity, a long term project, not an instant one set up overnight, and OpenHydro is also working on two other similar projects in Northern Ireland and Scotland. But it is important to lay secure groundwork, as Michael Lewis says:

“In an environment such as the Alderney Race, preparation is absolutely integral to the overall success of the project. In devoting time and resources to the development phase, we can harness the unique conditions that the Alderney Race provides and in doing so provide renewable energy that is silent, invisible and predictable, for generations to come.”

Burning Questions

It is interesting to note that Jersey’s Crematorium actually came into existence quite late. The Family Search website notes that:

“Jersey came late to the idea of cremation - the States did not pass a law permitting in until 1952, and the crematorium was finally opened at Westmount in 1960. However, neighbouring Guernsey opened a crematorium at Le Foulon in the early 1930s, and more than one local funeral director was willing to send bodies for cremation there, with the ashes either being scattered in Guernsey, returned to Jersey, or in a few cases scattered at sea.”

However, like much plant built in the 1960s and 1970s, it has been stretched to the limit, and variously adjusted to meet modern standards.

Emissions

In 2003, a report to the Health and Social Services Committee stated that the “Crematorium is over 30 years old and does not comply with the UK Environmental Protection Act process guidance note PG5/2(91). There is a proposal to replace the existing cremators in the next 12 months with 2 new units.”

In detail, it stated that it did comply with the UK Environmental Protection Acts 1990 process guidance note PG5/2(91) and noted that pollutants produced from crematoria could include:- dioxins and furans, mercury, particulates, hydrogen chloride and carbon monoxide. Mercury, it is believed came mainly from fillings in teeth. A problem with odour was also noted, along with the fact that there were around 500 - 600 cremations a year.

It said there was a “proposal to replace the existing cremators in the next 12 months with two new units. The new cremators will meet the current UK process guidance notes standards”

In 2008, the Air Quality Review noted that:

“The 2003 report identified that the crematorium on the Island was not operating to standards that would be expected elsewhere in the UK in terms of its emissions. Since then new plant has been installed such that the crematorium now meets current standards.”

However, the “Jersey Air Quality Strategy and Action Plan, 2013” had this to say about “The Island Crematorium”:

“The crematorium is over 30 years old. Pollutants produced from crematoria may include dioxins and furans, mercury, particulates, hydrogen chloride and carbon monoxide. It is probable the Jersey’s crematorium is the main source of mercury on the island. Odour can also be a problem. Since the publication of the Air Quality Strategy 2003, new plant has been introduced that meets current UK process guidance notes emissions standards. There is currently no specific local legislation to regulate emissions from this facility, however, the crematoria are operated, as a requirement of Statutory Nuisances (Jersey) Law 1999 by the Health Protection Service, to the standards set out within the UK’s Process Guidance Note 5/2 (04), Secretary of State’s Guidance for Crematoria”

“Annual testing is required to ascertain the emissions of total particulates, Hydrogen Chloride Carbon Monoxide and organic compounds excluding particulate matter expressed as carbon”

So while some work has been done, there still seems to be much to be done, and it is notable that (1) there is no legislation to regulate emissions, so one wonders exactly how well they operate, or what would happen if they were not. (2) Odour is still listed as a problem, ten years after first identified, and nothing has changed.

While pollutants are mentioned, facts and figures which would give some idea of comparison with other jurisdictions are lacking, despite the annual testings. Will this be rectified in the near future, I wonder? Or will they require a request under Freedom of Information?

Charges for Cremation

An “under the radar” Ministerial decision means that cremation charges are set to rise in 2015:

“The Minister requests the Treasurer of the State to approve a proposed 7% increase in cremation charges, and a 7% increase in Books of Remembrance charges and memorial cards charges. The proposed increase would take effect from 1 January 2015.”

The reason is given as follows:

“The proposed increase in charges is due to the increase in fuel costs which are going up by 2.9%. There has also been a shortfall in achieving our income target by 4.25% by the end of October 2014.”

I was wondering about this, and trying to find out exactly what fuel is used in the cremation process in Jersey. Wikipedia notes that:

“Modern cremator fuels include fuel oil, natural gas, propane, and, in some areas like Hong Kong, coal gas. However, coal and coke were used until the early 1960s.”

Now some sources of fuel, such as oil, have fallen since the start of the year, while others, such as gas, have risen, so I assume it is largely cremation by gas. There is, however, no online documentation I can find at all about what source of fuel is used, and all that I have is anecdotal, about oil tanks by the building, which could just be used to heat it for those attending services.

The last huge rise was in 2010, when the BBC reported that:

“The cost of cremations in Jersey is to rise by 69% in 2010, following approval by the treasury minister. The move will see cremation costs rise from £317 to £535 at the Westmount Crematorium, St Helier. It follows a request by the health department, which said cremation charges had been below the actual cost of the service for several years.”

But that was not enough, and the BBC reported in December 2010 that:

“The cost of cremation in Jersey is to go up in 2011. There will be an £11 increase from 1 January, taking the overall fee for cremation from £535 to £546. The 2011 rise was in line with inflation, and was described as minimal compared to a £218 increase introduced at the start of 2010.”

Looking back:

In 2010, from 317 to 535, 69% increase of £218

In 2011 from 535 to 546, 2% increase of £11

In 2012, it went up from £546 to £600, 10% increase of £54

In 2013 from £600 to £615, 2% increase of £15

In 2014 from £615 to £676.50, 10% increase of £61.50

And now it is set to rise again by 7% to £723, increase of £47.

There is no great consistency, but it is worth noting that the increase has generally been greater than inflation, by a significant amount. The death grant is now £785.68, and so most of this will be gobbled up by cremation fees.

It is interesting to note that Bedford Borough Council, faced with above inflation cremation fees, did an “Equity Analysis” to see the impact on different segments of society, and concluded:

“Increase in fees and charges may have an adverse impact on low income users of the service. To mitigate any potential adverse impact of the increase in fees and charges, the Council are looking into the feasibility of instalment plan, online debit and credit card payment and to identify organisations that may be able to give financial help to those who require it.”

Shouldn’t Jersey be looking into this as well?

A Tide is Rising

A Tide is Rising

A lot of scary stories about rising sea levels in the JEP recently, coupled, of course, with photos of flooding because of the tide.

In fact, the tidal range has hardly risen at all over the last 10 years, and not by any significant amount at all. So why do we see more flooding now?

What we have, I believe, is a higher incidence of strong winds. Strong winds, when they are coupled with high tides, often cause flooding, and that is nothing new. But the prevalence of high winds has increased, and so the coincidence of high wind with high tide has become more likely.

So that does mean we need to improve coastal defences, but that’s not against rises in sea level, but a against high tides and winds bringing flooding. It is still a problem to be tackled, but it is not quite the same problem, so the solutions might be slightly different. It is flood defences that are needed, not higher sea level defences.

The reason nothing happened in the past was that the coincidence of wind and tide was much less frequent, and people just lived with the occasional event. And given its rarity, politicians – as you might expect – buried their heads in the sand. That’s not an option now, because a wind is rising, and the tide is coming in.

Rise of the Dictators

In the Roman Republic, the dictator (“one who dictates”), was an extraordinary magistrate (magistratus extraordinarius) with the absolute authority to perform tasks beyond the authority of the ordinary magistrate (magistratus ordinarius)

Dictator, noun: A person invested with or exercising absolute authority of any kind; one who assumes to control or prescribe the actions of others; one who dictates.

In Jersey, the ministerial powers to decree orders has a resemblance to the trappings of power of the Roman dictators, used in a technical sense. This was not in the sense of someone seizing control, but rather – as in the Republic – one who legitimately has a measure of absolute power bestowed upon them.

Ministerial decisions, such as that by Susie Pinel, seem very much like that. They are brought forward without any States debate, which they simply bypass. It is notable that laws are now often framed in such a way that Ministers can amend something in place by a Ministerial order, whereas in the past, they would have had to brought significant changes in a law to the States.

As a recent example, Susie Pinel has just extended by Ministerial decree the period from 6 months to 12 months with respect to allowing unfair dismissal claims.

Now it could be argued that this will help the economy. The problem of unfair dismissal claims has almost certainly driven the move to zero hour contracts, where there is effectively little provision for unfair dismissal.

So doubling it might encourage employers to take on more staff on permanent contracts rather than zero hour ones. But, of course, we don’t know, as this kind of economic decision is more a matter of guesswork than hard science. Nevertheless, this is a case which could I think be made, as Deputy Pinel does:

"I also believe that this change has the potential to motivate employers to offer more permanent terms and conditions of employment to employees, rather than entering into casual staffing arrangements."

That’s a nice supposition, but it would have more merit if some kind of poll backed it up statistically with employer intention on permanent contracts. Getting lists of employers who sign up to change their employment practices before making a change would have also been a good move, especially if it was known that the information could be released into the public domain; that would ensure employers kept their pledges.

But what I find wholly reprehensible is for a Minister to make such a radical change without putting it before the States to debate. This is the kind of decision making which calls for arguments for and against to be aired, and a measured debate, whatever the vote.

The way in which Ministers can simply effect change by Ministerial Decree, even with the approval of the Council of Ministers, is something I find profoundly disturbing. There should be guidelines in place to suggest a kind of threshold as to when something can be passed by decree, and when it should go before the States.

That would be democracy, but it is worth noting that even the city state of Athens, with its democratic assemblies, was troubled instead by those who came, took power away from its citizens, and simply dictated to them. I think we are in danger of losing the democratic sovereignty of the States.

Liberation Day: Will Islands Diverge?

“In Guernsey, the anniversary of the liberation is celebrated on 9 May, the day in 1945 the German garrison surrendered during World War Two. But that is a Saturday in 2015, so seven deputies have called for Friday 8 May to be a public holiday in lieu.” (BBC News)

And the BBC news notes:

“The last time Liberation Day fell on a weekend, in 2010, the States agreed to make Monday 10 May a public holiday in recognition of the momentous event in Guernsey history.”

I seem to remember that there were Scrooge like mutterings and nothing like that happened over here. The general argument was that it was celebrated on one day, and that was it regardless of which day that was. So there! These are no doubt the same pedants who celebrated the new century on 1st January 2001, a year after the rest of us.

The notion that liberation might just also give rise to a spirit of generosity, of exuberance, of celebration, that might be best recognised by an extra weekday, much as when Christmas or New Year’s day falls on a weekend, seems to have passed by in Jersey.

The economic argument, I recall, was that it was another day of business lost. Or to put it in terms that Ebenezer Scrooge would have approved of: "A poor excuse for picking a man's pocket every time Liberation day falls on a weekend.”

The Black Cloud

"The autumn was stormy and the skies in England were overcast. So although by October the Cloud had obscured a portion of the constellation of Lepus no alarm was given until November. It came from the clear skies of Arabia. Engineers of a large oil company were drilling in the desert. They noticed the concern with which their men were examining the sky. The Arabs pointed to the Cloud, or rather to a blackness in the sky, which by now was about seven degrees across, looking like a yawning circular pit."
 
"They said the pit should not be there, and that it was a sign in the sky. What the sign meant was not clear, but the men were frightened. Certainly none of the engineers remembered any such blackness, but none of them knew the disposition of the stars well enough to be certain. One of them had a star map back at base, however. When the drilling expedition was over he consulted the map. Sure enough, something was wrong. Letters to newspapers in England followed." (Fred Hoyle, The Black Cloud)
 
 I've just been re-reading "The Black Cloud", Fred Hoyle's science fiction apocalyptic novel in which an cloud of interstellar dust comes into the solar system. The descriptions of how scientists work has hardly been bettered anywhere in the literature, and certainly not in a realistic setting of contemporary earth.
 
Obviously aspects of the novel have dated, such as the electronic computer, in which instructions are laboriously punched as holes in a tape, later read into a tape reading machine, and which is presented as a marvellous time saving device, with its millions of calculations over hours where human beings would have taken years.
 
"[Kingsley] had to convert the letters and figures he had written into a form that the machine could interpret. This he did with a special kind of typewriter, a typewriter that delivered a strip of paper in which holes were punched, the pattern of the holes corresponding to the symbols that were being typed. It was the holes in the paper that constituted the final instructions to the computer. Not one single hole among many thousands must be out of its proper place, otherwise the machine would compute incorrectly. The typing had to be done with meticulous accuracy, with literally one hundred per cent accuracy."

I remember the teletype terminal in which we used to do precisely that in the early 1970s. It was at Highlands, and we would work on programs during the late afternoon, and after 6 pm, when cheaper phone rates prevailed, connect to a Honeywell computer in Manchester. Then we would type "load program", and feed the tape into the machine. Printouts were all on paper; there were no monitor screens in those days. And just as in Fred Hoyle's book, accuracy had to be 100%, although you could "erase" a letter by backtracking, and putting an "erase" signal - a row completely punched out.
 
The heating of the atmosphere caused by the cloud initially has a major impact on high locations, and Hoyle has a wonderful touch of cynicism in his description of how governments react:
 
"The evacuation of Tibet, Sinkiang, and Outer Mongolia was left to the Chinese. With cynical indifference nothing at all was done by them. The Russians, on the other hand, were punctilious and prompt in their evacuation of the Pamirs and of their other highland areas. Indeed genuine efforts were made to shift the Afghans, but Russian emissaries were driven out of Afghanistan at pistol point. India and Pakistan also spared no effort to ensure the evacuation of the part of the Himalaya south of the main watershed."
 
That has dated, but the effect of the cloud obscuring the sun, and at other times reflecting extra solar radiation on the earth, would, I suspect be pretty much the same. Both ourselves, and other species of plant and animal life on our planet have actually a very limited range of temperatures in which we can survive.
 
And as the temperature rises, we get some grim fact and figures, which are just as frightening today, as we live in the shadow, not of a "black cloud" from space, but of climate change, where temperature extremes seem set to increase:
 
"By June it became clear that the temperature of the Earth was likely to be raised everywhere by some thirty degrees Fahrenheit (17 centrigrade). It is not commonly realized how near the death temperature a large fraction of the human species lives. Under very dry atmospheric conditions a man can survive up to air temperatures of about 140°  Fahrenheit (60C). Such temperatures are in fact attained in a normal summer in low-lying regions of the Western American desert and in North Africa. But under highly humid conditions, the death temperature is only about 115° Fahrenheit (46C). Temperatures at high humidity up to 105° (41C) Fahrenheit are attained in a normal summer down the eastern seaboard of the U.S. and sometimes in the Middle West. "
 
"Curiously, temperatures at the equator do not usually run above 95° Fahrenheit (35C), although conditions are highly humid. This oddity arises from a denser cloud cover at the equator, reflecting more of the Sun's rays back into space"
 
"It may be added that death results from the inability of the body to get rid of the heat that it is constantly generating. This is necessary in order to maintain the body at its normal working temperature of about 98° Fahrenheit (37C). An increase of body temperature to 102° (39C) produces illness, 104° (40C)produces delirium, and 106°(41C) or thereabouts produces death."
 
"It may be wondered how the body can manage to rid itself of heat when it happens to be immersed in a hotter atmosphere, say in an atmosphere at 110° (43C). The answer is by evaporation of sweat from the skin. This happens best when the humidity is low, which explains why a man can survive at higher temperatures in low humidity, and indeed why hot weather is always pleasanter when the humidity is low."
 
And as the cloud settles around the sun, here is the effect described on the earth:
 
"Throughout the rest of June and July temperatures rose steadily all over the Earth. In the British Isles the temperature climbed through the eighties, into the nineties, and moved towards the hundred mark. People grumbled, but there was no serious distress."
 
"The death-roll in the U.S. remained quite small, thanks largely to the air-conditioning units that had been fitted during previous years and months. Temperatures rose to the lethal limit throughout the whole country and people were obliged to remain indoors for weeks on end. Occasionally air-conditioning units failed and it was then that fatalities occurred."
 
"Conditions were utterly desperate throughout the tropics as may be judged from the fact that 7,943 species of plants and animals became totally extinct. The survival of Man himself was only possible because of the caves and cellars he was able to dig. Nothing could be done to mitigate the stifling air temperature. The number who perished during this phase is unknown. It can only be said that in all phases together more than seven hundred million persons are known to have lost their lives. And but for various fortunate circumstances still to be recounted the number would have been far greater still."
 
"Eventually the temperature of the surface waters of the sea rose, not so fast as the air temperature it is true, but fast enough to produce a dangerous increase of humidity. It was indeed this increase that produced the distressing conditions just remarked. Millions of people between the latitudes of Cairo and the Cape of Good Hope were subjected to a choking atmosphere that grew damper and hotter inexorably from day to day. All human movement ceased. There was nothing to be done but to lie panting, as a dog pants in hot weather."
 
Could we be facing conditions like this? Among older people, even in Europe, high temperatures have produced fatalities, as the old are less able to adjust their body temperature. In 2003, a summer heatwave led to a death toll of around 14,800 people in France, according to official figures. Figures for estimated dead were:
 
France - 14,800
Italy - 4,200
Netherlands - 1,400
Portugal - 1,300
UK - 900
Spain - 100
 
And most of the deaths were among the elderly.
 
During the heat wave, seven days with temperatures of more than 40 °C (104 °F) were recorded in Auxerre, Yonne during July and August 2003.
 
We have not yet had quite such a recurrence, but the changing weather patterns may well bring a return to increases in heat related deaths. If the extremes of temperature continue, we may well face the same kind of fatalities described by Fred Hoyle in "The Black Cloud", and unlike his novel, there will be no end in sight. There is still a very black cloud on our horizon.

Waste Not: Comments on the Waste Water Strategy Document

The "Waste Water strategy" document to be debated is lodged by the Council of Ministers. It is an example, for once, of real joined up work - the Treasury looking at the finance, Planning looking at the environmental needs, and Transport and Technical Services doing the basic spadework.
 
It has to be said that this is an excellent report, and the bulk of it is clearly the work of the team of Civil Servants at TTS, who have produced what is a model of detail and clarity. Anyone who simply wants to understand how the Island's waste systems operate, and their history, has only to read this report, where it is all encapsulated with the 109 pages.
 
The existing sewage treatment plant, as well as being particularly smelly in the Bellozane area from time to time, is basically the same one that was put into operation back in late 1950s for a population of 57,000, modified and marginally extended as time went on, and it really is fast approaching the end of its lifespan. The UV plant was upgraded in 2003 with self-cleaning and more energy efficient units with applied dose monitoring facilities. At present Bellozanne takes flow from a connected resident population of 85,000, which increases to a summer peak population of approximately 102,000.
 
When it was built, no one could have thought of almost a doubling of the Island population in the summer peak, and the increased demands on the infrastructure. That also leads to odours, and these have been partially mitigated by enclosing areas such as the sludge storage tanks and inlet works, with the air treated by way of odour control units. These works were implemented in 2008 but with limited success to date.
 
Water consumption can be lowered by the population using less, but an increasing population will always lead to more demands on the sewage system. As the report notes, "any additional loading as a result of an increase in the Island's population... will only result in a deterioration of the present situation."
 
This means that it is failing in many ways, which are injurious both to the environment, and potentially to public health. As the report notes, it fails "to achieve total nitrogen permit limit, and suffers from extensive biological foaming, a consequence of which is poor removal of suspended solids and lower bacteriological kill from the UV disinfection process". And a survey in 2008 also showed that "approximately 42% of the mechanical and electrical items were in very poor condition."
The existing sewage network needs re-examining as well. The older systems used to mix up ground water with waste water, and that was again fine for a small Island population. Pressure on the systems led to the cavern at Fort Regent, but there is still need for more to be done. At times of heavy rainfall the system is under increased pressure, and on occasion, outfalls of untreated sewage into the sea have taken place. As the report notes:
 
"In terms of effluent compliance, of particular concern is the fact that the existing plant discharges partially treated sewage, missing out on the secondary treatment process, on a regular basis. This is usually during storm conditions, which generate high flows to the works which are in excess of the full treatment capacity. As a result, discharge of partially treated sewage to the Bay also leads to a risk that public health will be adversely impacted. In 2010, this bypass procedure operated in storm conditions for periods totalling 130 days."
 
The new system proposed for Bellozane has to comply with the following very sensible criteria. It must be:
 
-          Flexible, in terms of adapting to potential increases or decreases in population or potential future changes to consent standards;
-          Sustainable, not only in terms of power usage, carbon footprint, etc., but also in terms of its effect on the wider environment;
-          Proven, in that the success of the process technology in achieving the required level of treatment is well known, widely used and understood; and
-          Affordable, not only in terms of capital cost, but also in terms of operating costs
 
As it has been reported, the States want to spend £75 million on improving the system. But against this must be the consideration that relatively little has been done to improve the system and bring it up to modern standards, as well as dealing adequately with the demands of an increased population.
 
Two Chief Ministers have come and gone, and I noted on my blog - back in 2008  -the Medical Officer of Health's report which called for:
 
"the early formulation of an Islandwide liquid waste strategy to determine the appropriate level of improvement and extension to the mains drainage network, along with an appropriately sized and located replacement for the Bellozanne sewage treatment plant". In January 2012, TTS were saying (on BBC News) that the works were 50 years old and " outdated and not up to current standards for pollutants, saying a new treatment works would be needed in the future."
 
Contingent planning has taken account of increases in the population, and also adjusted for a seasonal increase due to tourism, visiting friends and migrant workers. The new plant is looking at a population of 118,336 estimated for 2035, which includes these extra numbers, estimated at around 19,149 for a maximum adjustment. As the report notes, "it is considered advisable to provide flexibility in the design such that 118,000 is not an absolute limit but can be expanded with minimal cost in the future." Of course population measures in place may limit that, and I hope they do,  but it is surely prudent to allow for future growth rather than requiring the patchwork modifications of the current plant.
 
Another factor is climate change, which is another reason for a better sewage works, and also for looking at improved pumping systems, and waste water separation. The report notes that:
 
"The potential for climate change impacts on the Jersey sewerage network has not been fully assessed. It has been assumed that in common with the southern part of England climate change will lead to increases in the magnitude of storm events within the Strategy period. This will increase the waste water flows to be handled by the network, the pumping stations, the overflows and the STW. In the absence of detailed modelling of the assets, a simple general allowance for upsizing the assets as they are maintained / renewed has been made of 5% of the projected maintenance cost."
 
The sewage systems themselves need checking as an initial assessment has indicated that a substantial proportion of the existing sewerage network is already at capacity. This is being addressed by a scientific study of the patterns of flow. As the report notes:
 
"A programme is currently being implemented to investigate, locate and resolve the infiltration / inflow problems across the Island. By using a combination of pumping station telemetry data and in-sewer flow monitors, a systematic investigation is being undertaken to identify the location and severity of the problem so that suitable remedial measures can be carried out."
 
Back in 2008, when I was looking at the sewage system, I noted that "Biogas production from sewage sludge treatment, via a process called anaerobic digestion, is already a well established means of generating energy in the UK."
 
It was good to read that the proposed new plant incorporates this into its plan:
 
"The ongoing project to replace the sludge treatment facilities involves enhanced sludge treatment achieved by a pasteurisation process followed by anaerobic sludge digestion. Methane gas produced during the treatment process will be utilised for heating of the sludge and power generation to meet approximately a third of the power requirements for the new Sewage Treatment Works"

It appears that the Environment Minister, Deputy Duhamel, would prefer some alternatives, and, time allowing, I will look into those. It should be noted, however, that the proposed new sewage treatment facility does accord with EU regulations regarding the environment with regard to treatment and disposal of waste matter. It is an environmentally sound choice, even if some dissenters think there would be even better choices to be made.
 
As this States gradually comes to an end before September, and the run up to the October elections, it is perhaps worth looking at what the present Council of Ministers have achieved under Ian Gorst, and which was not achieved, and perhaps delayed or ignored under the somewhat slack leadership of his predecessor.
 
Of course, there have also been failings, not least with the Electoral Commission and Referendum, and virtually anything from Economic Development seems to be hedged around with the same vagueness and management speak that Jim Hacker of "Yes Minister" would be proud of.
 
But there seems less of a fortress mentality that I noted in the past, and more willingness for Ministers to work with backbenchers to agree propositions such as Montfort Tadier's recent one on Rental Housing Standards, working with the Housing Minister.
 
The Waste Strategy is certainly a fine legacy to present to the outgoing States. I was hugely impressed by it, as a model of clarity and facts.

Counting Car Emissions - Too Much Hot Air?

Jersey's government should introduce MoT-style tests for all vehicles, according to an air quality report. The Environment Department said emissions and road worthiness checks would make sure vehicles are kept within EU standards. Currently only buses, taxis and trucks have annual tests but the study found 40% of cars do not meet EU regulations. Jersey's Environment Minister, Deputy Rob Duhamel, said vehicle standards needed to be addressed.
 
"Clearly this is not satisfactory and in order to weed out those vehicles that are perhaps more polluting than their modern counterparts I think some serious discussions will have to take place with the transport minister about the introduction of MoT tests," he said. Air quality surveys run jointly by the Health & Social Services and Planning & Environment departments help shape the States air quality strategy.
 
Transport Minister, Deputy Kevin Lewis, said he would support the idea in principle but now was not the right time. "I think the short answer is not at the moment. There is a recession on and I don't think the garages are geared up for it at the moment. "We have our own road checks carried out by DVS and the honorary police and people not keeping their cars up to standards do have them taken off the roads."
 
Deputy Lewis said in future the island might be expected to introduce tests after pressure from places like the UK and France. The transport department said there are about 100,000 cars on the roads in Jersey.
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-jersey-22692416
 
I'm a collector of odd statistics, and the last one is clearly rather a odd figure. Unless there are a huge number of visiting tourists, it is most likely the figure of 100,000 (such a curiously round number!) refers to the number of cars registered to be on the roads in Jersey. The population is less than that, and once one excludes people without cars, and children and teenagers under 17, the number will fall still further. So some people have more than one car, and this figure probably also includes hire cars and cars on garage forecourts, not all of which are out on the road all the time at once.
 
But while I will return to that figure, I'd also like to look at the main story here, and the statistics in that. The report in question is the "Jersey Air Quality Strategy and Action Plan", which is available on the States Assembly website, and this says:
 
"The greatest proportion of air pollution in Jersey is from road traffic emissions. The 2010 Sustainable Transport Policy (STP) recognises that emissions from transport are significant in the Jersey context of air quality, and presents a series of recommendations which have the potential to reduce emissions from vehicles.Transport emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulates (PM10) present the greatest challenges to improving air quality in Jersey. "
 
The monitoring has highlighted various "hotspots" such as Georgetown in St Saviour, Beaumont in St Peter and in St Helier: First Tower, the former Bus Station, Broad Street and La Pouquelaye. Other sites identified as being at risk of elevated levels of nitrogen dioxide include Le Bas Centre, Mont Felard, Robin Place, Saville Street/Rouge Bouillon and Beresford Street
 
The report notes that "40% of vehicles on Jersey's registration system are over 10 years old and so do not meet the requirements of the Euro 3 standard". This is an emission guideline for all vehicles manufactured for sale in the EU after the year 2000. But what we don't know is how far out from that standard they are.
 
In other words, the earlier standards such as Euro 2 (1996) addressed other matters such as levels of CO2, and HC+NOx) but didn't put any limits on emissions for NOx and PM10. What we don't know is the profile of pollution from older vehicle emission. The report simply takes cars by a cut off date and says that all cars before that date do not meet the modern standards. But in fact, the situation is complicated by the development of cars over that period, and their continual improvement regardless of directives.
 
An American study noted that today' new cars emit 97 percent less hydrocarbons, 96 percent less carbon monoxide, and 90 percent less nitrogen oxide than those built twenty years ago. But the same report also notes that cars purchased in the 1990s will emit about 80 percent less hydrocarbons and 60 percent less nitrogen oxide during their lifetimes, even though they will be owned longer and driven farther.
 
California's Air Resources Board Chairman, John Dunlap noted that in 2003, new vehicles would emit only 25% of harmful pollutants coming from 1994 vehicles. But he also observed that emissions from cars and light trucks had already been reduced by more than 90% for the period from 1966 to 1994.
 
So the closer the car is to the cut off  point of Euro 3 (2000), the more likely it is to be near to that threshold. The threshold is, after all, an arbitrary one, set by politicians to reduce emissions. The figure of 40% not meeting EU regulations may be strictly true, but it does not give the whole picture. It suggests a situation which may well appear worse in terms of pollutants from vehicle emissions than it actually is. The cars prior to 2000 fit on a continuum, in which more recent usually means less polluting.
 
Moreover, it has been found that emission levels of vehicles are dependent on many parameters such as model, size and fuel type. For example, diesel exhaust contains more PM (by a factor of approximately 50-100 on a mass basis) than gasoline exhaust. The absence of any such profile on cars in the 40% category also gives a misleading picture. It is worth noting that an unexpected side effect of the earlier EU focus on controlling CO2  boosted the popularity of diesel engines, which have under the Euro 3 directive somewhat laxer standards than petrol ones.
 
The "Clean Air in London" report notes that: "the shift from petrol to diesel cars since 2000, for which Governments have been responsible, has resulted in actual primary NO2 emissions in 2010 being more than twice the level they would have been under the 2000 car fleet mix scenario (107%) - even after allowing for NO2 emissions as a fraction of NOx emissions increasing from around 5% to 20% or more in the real world;"
 
What the Jersey Environment Air Quality report does is to highlight a statistic - 40% - of vehicles for which there is (1) no automatic determination of failure to meet Euro 3 standards (2) no indication of how close vehicles are to meeting some of those standards. What would be more accurate, therefore, would be to say that 40% of cars do not automatically meet EU regulations, which is a different matter entirely.
 
Moreover, as I noted at the start, a proportion of the approximate 100,000 vehicles "on the road" are not on the road but either in garages or at homes. We don't know how many of those are at garage forecourts, or how likely those are to be sold. So we should also note that the figure is 40% of vehicles registered but not necessarily being driven around Jersey at the moment. Some may even be older collectors cars, only taken out on special occasions.
 
As these statistics are being used as a pretext for mandatory emissions testing (alongside a roadworthiness certificate), it is important that we understand their limitations. That's not to say that emissions are not important, but the figure being bandied about here is not giving the full picture. It's a good starting point, but as a tactic to introduce mandatory emission testing, it falls short.

Think of a world without any flowers

Think of a world without any flowers,
Think of a world without any trees,
Think of a sky without any sunshine,
Think of the air without any breeze.
We thank You, Lord,
for flowers and trees and sunshine,
We thank You, Lord,
and praise Your holy name.
 
Think of a world without any animals,
Think of a field without any herd,
Think of a stream without any fishes,
Think of a dawn without any bird.
We thank You, Lord,
for all Your living creatures,
We thank You, Lord
and praise Your holy name.
 
Think of a world without any people,
Think of a street with no-one living there,
Think of a town without any houses,
No-one to love and nobody to care.
We thank You, Lord
for families and friendships,
We thank You, Lord,
and praise Your holy name.

Doreen Newport (1927-2004)

The words of this hymn are almost a prophetic warning about what climate change and mankind's greedy exploitation of natural resources may bring about. Trees are being destroyed, especially the great rainforests which have so much diversity, at a frightening rate. Think of a world without any trees. The use of chemical pesticides may well be depleting the bee population, and without bees, much of the pollenation of flowers and fruit would simply not take place. Think of a world without any flowers,

The oceans overfished, the rivers are either overfished or polluted. Think of a stream without any fishes. And the ecosystems are so tightly nit that a fall in fish supplies, a collapse in fish stocks, also leads to critical falls in numbers of the sea birds which depend on those. Think of a dawn without any bird.

I was hearing John Le Maistre on the radio this morning saying that the trend for milk cows, which fortunately has not come to Jersey, is for cows to be treated like battery animals, feeding, milking, but cooped up, and not allowed to graze freely. He thought this was a step too far with technology. Think of a field without any herd. Animals are still being hunted to extinction across the world, or their habitats destroyed as part of deforestation etc. Think of a world without any animals.

And we live in a fragmented society, in which the old support networks are fast falling. People are treated like cogs in a bureaucratic machine. Old people are left on their own. The pension this year in Jersey will not automatically rise, but will be means tested, so that those who have scrimped and saved all their life are penalised. And yet with careless disregard for mixed messages, the same system attacks poorer people as work shy. No-one to love and nobody to care.

The writer of the hymn was Doreen Newport (1927-2004), and I managed to find out eventually some biographical information on her. It is interesting to note that ecological concerns were behind the thinking with this hymn.

The Kensington Unitarians Newsletter of June 2009 has this information about her by Caroline Blair. It's a wonderful tale:

Early 1970's Emmanuel United Reformed Church - Young People's Group, aka The Urchins.

Our leader was a sunny-tempered music teacher called Doreen Newport - Bunty to her friends but (in those more formal times) always "Mrs Newport" to us. As a skilled pianist and trained soprano, she always had high musical ambitions for us, and singing was a major feature of our activities. The early 1970's were the great era of Happy-Clappy music in churches - out went the Wesleys and in came Kumbaiya, and others which have survived less well; 'He Is My Little Brown Brother' seems, mercifully, to have fallen into disuse.

As well as singing, Mrs Newport, with the perennial optimism of the sweet-natured, believed that we could write our own hymns. "The Urchins are leading worship at Linton," we would be told; "Go and write a hymn about pollution." (I am not sure why the congregation at Linton, who had no minister, should have been subjected to these beastly things, but they were). I think the hymns we wrote were of variable quality, varying in fact from adequate to embarrassing. The moving refrain of one of our hymns ran,

Lord, feed us with thy bread
Until we're old and dead.

(I bet the Unitarian Hymn Book Panel are kicking themselves that they are too late for that one).

On one occasion she decided that we should all write a hymn collaboratively. She had already sketched out a beginning. "Think of a world without any flowers." she trilled, then encouraged us to think of other examples of things that we would miss. She gently weeded out the hopelessly inappropriate - beer, perhaps, or Mott the Hoople - and tried to lead us to think more of spiritual matters. By the end of the session the hymn had taken shape, and was almost ready for its debut in Linton U.R.C. Some months later we learned to our surprise that we had been paid £100 in royalties, and the church elders wanted us to discuss how best this money could be spent or invested. Hey, we were young teenagers. We voted for a huge party, with DJ and unlimited cider. We spent a happy evening striking cool, 'don't-mess-with-me' poses while our parents waited patiently outside with cars.

20 years later, at Pinner Wood School harvest festival I was absolutely staggered when the children broke into song and sang OUR hymn. The deputy head, confronted by a wild-eyed madwoman with bulging eyes, explained in puzzled tone that it is a common part of the school repertoire. So I was less amazed than I might have been when it turned up as number 168 in the new purple hymnbook. Seeing it written down it looks tidier, more thoughtful, more structured, dammit BETTER than I remember; possibly Mrs Newport had more input than I had realized. But there it is, and the credit should read "Mrs Newport and some Urchins who spent the royalties on cider."

The Legacy of Thomas Malthus

I was recently reading Concern's statement in 1984 which noted that:

Every new resident has to be supplied with housing, water, hospital facilities and all the other amenities and service required by civilised society.
 
Earlier today, I was listening to a Radio 4 "In Our Time" discussion on Malthusianism, and the two are linked.

Malthus and the Finite World
 
In the eighteenth century, as expanding agriculture and industry resulted in a rapid increase in the European population, a number of writers began to consider the implications of this rise in numbers. Some argued it was a positive development, since a larger population meant more workers and thus more wealth. Others maintained that it placed an intolerable strain on natural resources.
 
In 1798 a young Anglican priest, the Reverend Thomas Malthus, published An Essay on the Principle of Population. Malthus argued that the population was increasing exponentially, and that food production could not keep pace; eventually a crisis would ensue.
 
Around the time that Malthus was writing, the Agricultural revolution was beginning to make changes increasing food production, and the Industrial revolution would increase general prosperity - the foundations were being laid for an economics of growth in which one could use economic growth to escape from problems, and feed a much greater population off the land.

The result was that his ideas about the collapse of society seemed to be proven untrue, but in fact all that happened is that the problem has simply been delayed, as Western civilisation has managed to "grow" its way out of the consequences of a finite world, but only at the expense of draining natural and non-renewable resources.

But now, the strain on natural resources, in increased fuel costs, and higher costs for food production, are beginning to hit the Western world. While the timing of peak oil may be debatable, no one can doubt that the oil will run out. Malthus' ideas are ripe for resurrection, with his warnings of a collapse of a society which has reach the end of its resources. And our Island, which is so dependent upon imports, is probably harder hit than England.
 
Malthus and the Theology of Survival

A second part of Malthus thinking also tends to come into play in a society in recession, facing rising costs and taxes, and this is the treatment of the poor. In boom years, there is plenty of extra to distribute, but in more recessionary times, the State looks at reducing this burden, by such means as "user pays", or reducing allowances. This is the darker legacy of Thomas Malthus; the legitimisation of reducing the burden of Welfare costs.

The strain on society can be also seen with the rise of unemployment, and the increasing burden which this calls upon the working population to supply through taxation. Malthus was of the opinion that if you supported the poor, they would breed, and cause more demands on society (under England's poor law) while giving nothing back. He wrote:
 
"A man who is born into a world already possessed, if he cannot get subsistence from his parents on whom he has a just demand, and if the society do not want his labour, has no claim of right to the smallest portion of food, and, in fact, has no business to be where he is. At nature's mighty feast there is no vacant cover for him."
 
There is an increasingly loud grumble about the high cost of income support which reflects these kind of sentiments very closely. Income support, we are told, has risen in costs more than it should. There is a call for any suspected (not proven) benefit cheats to be reported. And the support limits are in fact often very low, because of the determination that people who can support themselves should. The results can be seen in the letter by Sonia Nightingale in the JEP:
 
Where is the fairness of it all? I am a 74 year old Jersey born single pensioner struggling to exist. I have worked all my life, but because my two small pensions (one of which isn't index-linked, so is rapidly decreasing in value) just take me into the income tax bracket, I get no financial help whatsoever. The small amount I was allowed in rent rebate has now also been stopped.
 
It will be remembered that Malthus was a clergyman, and it may be wondered how such a contrary position on social concern - miles away from the strong Christian and Judaic tradition for social justice - could be squared. Indeed William Cobbett, who called him "Parson Malthus", attacked Malthus' lack of compassion for the poor in his book, writing: "Your book could have sprung from no mind not capable of dictating acts of greater cruelty than any recorded in the history of the massacre of St. Bartholomew". How did Malthus come to views which, on the face of it, seem wholly opposed to Christian notions of charity and compassion? 
 
Unlike the social tradition of Wilberforce, the Evangelical position of Malthus turned against helping others. He suggested that help in the form of poor relief would only encourage the poor to breed, and not to be productive, and for Malthus this was "vice", aiding a degeneration to the level of animals. As he wrote:

The savage would slumber for ever under his tree unless he were roused from his torpor by the cravings of hunger or the pinchings of cold.... If those stimulants to exertion, which arise from the wants of the body, were removed from the mass of mankind, we have much more reason to think that they would be sunk to the level of brutes, from a deficiency of excitements, than that they would be raised to the rank of philosophers by the possession of leisure.

Malthus sees this as part of the pattern of the world as ordained by God:

The supreme Being has ordained that the earth shall not produce food in great quantities till much preparatory labour and ingenuity has been exercised upon its surface

And of course, he could find support for this in the Old Testament:

"You will have to work hard all your life to make it produce enough food for you. It will produce weeds and thorns, and you will have to eat wild plants. You will have to work hard and sweat to make the soil produce anything, until you go back to the soil from which you were formed. You were made from soil, and you will become soil again." (Genesis 3:17-19)

Against this Malthus put "virtue", which was self-reliance, a lack of dependency on the State for hand-outs:

political economists like Malthus resisted this trend, however, believing that aid to the poor only encouraged the very sins that had made them poor in the first place-laziness, vices like gambling and drink, and sex-having more kids than they could support. They also felt that mandatory taxes and a state-sponsored distribution system undermined the moral character and opportunities of the rich. They insisted that the spiritual needs of the giver-that is, themselves-were at least as important as those of the receivers-the poor. Each act of charity, to be a genuine act of conscience, had to be voluntary, spontaneous and discriminating. (2)

"We cannot, in the nature of things, " Malthus wrote, "assist the poor, in any way, without enabling them to rear up to manhood a greater number of their children."

A direct line can be drawn between these theological ideas of Malthus and the kind of Conservatism espoused by Margaret Thatcher and Norman Tebbit. And there is some truth in it: some people can "milk the system", and become lazy, and fall into a culture of dependency - there is always that possibility inherent in any welfare system or redistributive taxation, so there is an insidious attraction to that kind of argument, especially when it can be given some kind of religious justification.

The same might be seen in part in "The Big Society" where the State is to withdraw, and charities are to fill the gap, so that people can become pro-active in helping others. But as Aneurin Bevan saw with the Health Service, this may not be enough:

Private charity and endowment, although inescapably essential at one time, cannot meet the cost of all this. If the job is to be done, the state must accept financial responsibility.

and he added:

No society can legitimately call itself civilized if a sick person is denied medical aid because of lack of means.

And Charles Dicken's directly challenged the philosophy of Malthus that the poor must be self-reliant or perish: Scrooge says: "the out-of-work and the indigent sick are merely the idle and useless; they had better die and decrease the surplus population."
 
The story of "A Christmas Carol" is a plea for compassion against numbers, and to show, imaginatively, the consequences of the kind of practice which Malthus was advocating to reduce the population. When the siren calls come against mitigating the effects of poverty, drawing on the same kind of argument which Thomas Malthus made, we should reflect that while there may be some people who abuse a welfare system, it does not mean the system should be dispensed with or made harsher for all the many honest folk who need it, but rather that means should exist for addressing those exceptional cases. Because some abuse the system, it is wrong that everyone else needing it should suffer.

And against Thomas Malthus, comes Dicken's call for compassion to not merely calculate the effect of welfare for poor people in monetary terms, but also to consider them as fellow human beings:

 'But you were always a good man of business, Jacob,' faltered Scrooge, who now began to apply this to himself.

'Business!' cried the Ghost, wringing its hands again. 'Mankind was my business. The common welfare was my business; charity, mercy, forbearance, and benevolence, were, all, my business. The dealings of my trade were but a drop of water in the comprehensive ocean of my business!'

 'At this time of the rolling year,' the spectre said, 'I suffer most. Why did I walk through crowds of fellow-beings with my eyes turned down, and never raise them to that blessed Star which led the Wise Men to a poor abode? Were there no poor homes to which its light would have conducted me?'

Links
(1) JEP Letters Page, 2011
(2) http://throughtheflamingsword.wordpress.com/tag/thomas-malthus/