Tuesday, 30 November 2021

Covid: Timely Information, and Quick Steps needed









We need sensible steps to balance the economy and freedoms with safety. Mandatory mask wearing when numbers are high is another layer in the Swiss cheese model of protection (see above), vaccines and boosters are another, and while the UK and Guernsey have put this back in place, our government is still dithering when it is clear that the best scientific advice in those jurisdictions is to do so.

We also need enough statistics so we can make informed decisions about risk - different people will make different decisions depending on age, health, etc, but information is key. While the downloadable statistic give useful information, a breakdown between positive cases giving a split between vaccinated and unvaccinated, and by age group, would allow what in statistic terms is to see a baseline. Without that, we cannot see how effective vaccines are proving, or for that matter, how much their efficacy declines with increasing age, which is known from UK studies to be the case. Baselines are an important part of any statistics on Covid, and the ONC in the UK keeps them.

It is also important that government release STAC minutes in a timely manner, which they do not. There is really no excuse for this, as up to date minutes will give us some expert views on the current situation, rather than the 13th September which is really of historic interest. 

This is not about finding the government at fault - unless they decide not to follow STAC advise without good reason - but about getting a scientific overview - and remember that someone like Dr Muscat will be in touch with colleagues in the UK and elsewhere on the latest significant scientific news. The best way to get a balanced opinion (and the media can sometimes be off-kilter) is to get an informed scientific one that is timely.

How many meetings of STAC have there been between then and now (18 November)?
When can we expect to see those published online?

Response
Since 13th September there have been five STAC meetings: 4th, 11th and 25th October, 1st
and 15th November.
Minutes are published as soon as possible, whilst upholding the safe space for STAC to
debate live issues. The minutes of the meetings in this period are likely to be published by
January 2022

This is too little, too late!

Saturday, 27 November 2021

Crisis, what Crisis?













An unashamedly political poem today about Jersey's Government with a glance back to Jim Callaghan and the Winter of Discontent, and the phrase attributed to him: "crisis, what crisis". Politicians hate the word "crisis", and want to talk about issues or problems, but when rents are pricing people out of coming to Jersey - nurses, for example, look at the housing market, and the high cost of living, and tsay away - hospitality workers are not coming back - and the brain drain of local talent continues.  Hosuing is a problem, but then they turn down the chance to set 30% of a new JDC build for affordable housing.

Meanwhile schools are told that it's tough by the Education Minister, but it's a question of priorities, and potholes have their place before extra funding, while budgets slashed to the bone already cause grief - and what about "putting children first?". The so-called Competent Authorities in charge of the pandemic say they follow STAC advice, until it becomes clear from minutes that they don't - their solution is a sub-committee with no minute taking! Secrecy and lies is the order of the day.

Crisis, what Crisis?

Now is the winter of our discontent:
Too few workers: because they went.
And would not return, high rent cost
And a brain drain too: these the lost;
As house prices soar, rents sky high:
Crisis, what crisis? So speaks the lie
As schools struggle to add up sums,
Budgets breaking, disaster comes;
Hope House closed, abandon hope:
Can the Government really cope?
As Covid soars once more, again,
And may still bring Christmas pain;
Mask wearing still not there in law:
As infections rise, they just ignore;
At least we don’t have Peppa pig,
But do our politicians care a fig
About putting children first? No!
I do not believe that it is so;
Not a crisis, but a problem, say
Politicians as they still betray
Our trust, with secrets and lies,
Deaf to poverty’s loudest cries;
Give me your tired, and your poor:
The government will shut the door;
Crisis, what crisis? Wait to next June:
Reckoning not moments too soon.


https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2021/01/27/stacs-concerns-over-border-policy-ignored-minutes-show/

Friday, 26 November 2021

Edward Le Quesne: Parish Roads and Welfare




















Edward Le Quesne (1882-1957) was elected a Deputy for St Helier No 2 district in 1925 and held the seat until he stood successfully for the new office of Senator in 1948. This is an extract from a journal he wrote entitled “50 Years of Memories”, written sometime around 1949.

Parish Welfare, which is mentioned here was, until 2007, the system of assistance administered by the Parishes for those who did not have the means to meet basic needs, such as food, housing, heating and clothing. As Edward Le Quesne's memoir shows, it could show a shocking lack of care and compassion for the elderly needing assistance.

This system had its strengths in the smaller Parishes, where people would be known to the Constable who could help them, but also disadvantages, in that it could be the whim of a Parish committee where personal considerations could enter into the equation, with judgements that were biased. Various accounts of that appeared in the JEP when the replacement Income Support Law was mooted and some made very unpleasant reading, rather like the judgmental committee in Priestley's "An Inspector Calls". I've had personal accounts told to me by friends whom I have no reason to doubt.

Moreover, being known could be a disadvantage - I've also known elderly people who didn't apply for Parish welfare because their plight would be made known to all and sundry, especially to people they might meet at Church.  By contrast, Income Support was more confidential, and at "arms length" from the fellow Parishioners you might meet in the shops, especially in small Parishes.

Senator Paul Routier noted that: "The existing benefit systems are often not easy for residents in Jersey to understand, do not always target money to best effect, cause duplication of effort by officials and customers and lead to frustration amongst those trying to get support at difficult times of their lives."

He added: "The Income Support system, unlike the previous welfare system, is human-rights compliant and I know that there are people now being supported who did not feel able to make a claim under the old system. I have evidence from many people, especially pensioners, who continually thank me for the fair way in which the new Income Support system has helped them."

And Deputy Bob Hill noted that Parish Welfare could be "a system where people turn up and ask almost with begging letters in hand for relief."




Parish Roads

At the beginning of the century most of the roads of the Island were Parish roads, and in fact, all roads in his Parish were under the supervision of the Connétable. He was the sole arbiter as to how they were kept, as to when they needed repair and as to their width and possible widening. In the case of a main road situated in his Parish a portion of the cost of the maintenance and repair was borne by the States.

But Parochial roads varied according as to whether the Connétable was progressively-minded or whether he was a man whose main purpose was to keep down the Rates.

It was only in 1940, at a time that I was President of the Labour Departrnent and at the same time in charge of the Main Roads Department, that the States decided to place the maintenance of the whole of the main roads in the care of the Department. The number of Main Roads was greatly increased and the standardisation and general supervision of both repairs and cleaning greatly improved.

This, of course, did not meet with unanimous approval, for it took from the Connétables some of the powers that they previously possessed and prevented them from placing on the roads poor unfortunates who unable, through weakness or old age, to find normal employment, had applied to them for relief. ’


 
Many a time I have witnessed old men cleaning the Parish Roads that common humanity would have suggested had a right, after a lifetime of hard work and poor wages, to a sufficiency for at least a modicum of comfort and ease in the eventide of their life. But that might have meant an increase in the Rates and that could not be tolerated.

During the period 1920 to the beginning of the second World War the resurfacing of the main roads, employed large numbers of men. Previously, the road surfaces were made of a mixture of cracked stones and. gravel bound with water and rolled in with a steam-roller.

The new methods adopted were either concrete placed over the existing surfaces or a mixture of small stone premixed with hot bitumen. Many experiments with different types of tar-surfaced coverings were tried. In some instances the granite setts, principally in St. Helier, were covered with a thick coating of hot tar and fine granite chippings. This, whilst minimising the noise that iron tyred vans and lorries made when over the granite surface, did not result in durable surfaces.

Some of the principal streets of the town had, early in the century, their granite setts replaced by wooden blocks, and these again covered with granite chippings and bitumen lasted till well into the nineteen-fortys.

Thursday, 25 November 2021

Covid Watch: New School Rules, Teachers with Covid

New School Rules

There's been some confusion on Social Media about the new school testing arrangements about less PCR tests. Some people have thought it meant less Covid testing, but it does not.

As I understand it, the new rules for schools will still keep children safe but will mean less PCR tests undertaken without compromising safety. That means that schoolchildren identified as direct contacts are enrolled onto a 10 day lateral flow test regime. Should they test positive, or should they start showing symptoms, they will need to take a PCR test. 

So the number of PCR tests falls, but the number of cases testing positive should remain as consistent as if PCR tests were carried out on direct contacts straight away. Lateral flow tests are not quite as good as picking up Covid in the early stages, but a 10 days sequence should prove as effective as a PCR test.

Note another safeguard: if the children are identified as direct contacts outside the school environment, then a PCR test is mandatory as for any adult.

The aim is to stop children going for PCR tests 3 or more times a week.

This has happened, largely because a child is identified as a direct contact multiple times - when a Covid case occurs, what seems to have happened is that a class list has been given, and without checking whether children are already scheduled, they are put on the PCR testing list as a direct contact. 

A similar issue has occurred when children away from school - either with Covid or other illness - have also been put on the PCR testing list, because the class list is a list of those children assigned to a class, not a register of those present.
 
Teachers before the Bells goes

For the Week ending 8 November: 207 pupils 19 teachers
Week ending 15 November: 321 pupils 37 teachers

One of the schools issued this on the 23rd November:

"I am writing to inform you that I have today had to make the difficult decision to arrange for  year 9 students to work from home on Wednesday 24 November 2021. You will be aware of the increase in the number of cases of COVID-19 at the school. The team are currently working on contacting all those who are classed as direct contacts. The decision to close to Year 9 on Wednesday has been made as a direct result of the number of our teaching and support staff that are absent from school for a variety of reasons in relation to COVID-19."

This is something the Government does not seem to be addressing. As can be seen, the number of teachers tested positive with Covid is starting to rise exponentially, as it did back in June. 

Teachers with Covid may be deemed recovered after 10 days, but of course that doesn't mean they are well enough to resume teaching duties - the prevalence of Long Covid symptoms may well preclude that.

It is likely that temporary closures may become more frequent as the term progresses.

Saturday, 20 November 2021

Anno Domino

















Something of a rambling poem all about old age!

Anno Domino

Now it is the Common Era, not A.D.,
Which was Anno Domini, you see,
But which could also mean old age,
The passing of time, the final stage
Before the end. Bones once strong
Become brittle, balance goes wrong,
And we fall so easily, fragile, break:
Parkinson’s comes to make us shake;
Our eyesight fades, hearing is lost:
Old age, you see, comes with a cost,
And we must pay. But a new name
Would better suit our feeble frame:
Anno Domino, not Domini, because
It comes not singly, with a pause,
But one by one, toppling, as we see:
Dominoes falling, now goes my knee,
And then my back, my hair is gone;
Balance: I totter like a drunken don,
And shaking legs take cautious steps,
As fat replaces muscular biceps;
And I wobble along, an aging wreck,
Along the last journey, the final trek:
These are the voyages of the infirm,
To boldly go, and catch a nasty germ;
Atishoo! And finally we all fall down,
Like Humpty Dumpty, break our crown;
And is there a moral at this poem’s end?
Don’t worry, be happy, go round the bend!

Friday, 19 November 2021

Edward Le Quesne: Roads and Traffic








Edward Le Quesne (1882-1957) was elected a Deputy for St Helier No 2 district in 1925 and held the seat until he stood successfully for the new office of Senator in 1948. This is an extract from a journal he wrote entitled “50 Years of Memories”, written sometime around 1949.

Here he describes the states of the roads in the early part of the 20th century.

My thanks to Sue Hardy who told me that the steamroller mentioned at the end can be seen at the Pallot Steam Museum, and to Philip Johnson who found a photo, and to Pallot's for keeping our history alive in their wonderful museum. 



Roads and Traffic

In the early part of the 20th century vehicular traffic was entirely different from that existing to-day. Motor cars were unknown, and apart from the two railways, all had to rely on horse-drawn vehicles. People residing in the North and West of the Island, in most cases, only came to town of a Saturday and then either in their own vans or box-carts or on the buses, some of which only ran on that day.

These buses often consisted of converted vans on which box-like structures had been super-imposed. Packed like sardines, the “ fares ” huddled in semi darkness, their luggage, apart from what they could carry with them, being placed on top of the van over which was placed a tarpaulin to protect them from the weather.

To St. Martin and Trinity ran a regular daily bus service which normally left from Minden Place and from thence, in one instance to Bouley Bay, and in the other to St. Martin’s Church, from which points, passengers had to complete the distance to their respective homes on the oldest of all means of transport, i.e.. “ Shanks’ Pony ”.



The Railways ran from St. Helier to, in one case St. Aubin and in the other case to Gorey. A little later extensions were made to both Gorey Pier and to the Corbiére.


To the few that could afford it a bicycle was a means of conveyance much appreciated. These, of course, were solid-tyred and to say the least, hardly a comfortable means of travel. Some had two wheels of the same size, others had ‘one large wheel about four feet in diameter and a smaller wheel of twelve to fourteen inches. These were called “ Penny Farthings ”, and were most difficult to ride, for if the front, i.e.. the larger wheel, hit a fairly large stone, over the top of the handle-bars went the unfortunate rider, and a tumble at speed from that height meant very frequently serious bruises.

The roads were far from smooth surfaced. When a road needed resurfacing this was done under the “Corvée” system that then existed, and which was still in use in some of the country parishes until quite recent times. 

Every landed proprietor had to provide his quota of transport to convey cracked stones from the quarries to positions appointed. If he had no vehicle of his own he either had to borrow from his neighbour or pay the Connétable an amount fixed as an equivalent for the service he should have rendered. This normally amounted to one pound, if his due was for a horse and cart for a day.

The stones having been stacked along the roadside, they were then spread by parish workmen and left to be rolled in by passing traffic. To obtain even a moderately smooth surface often required years of use and often previous to that being obtained, the road required resurfacing once more. Somewhat later a steam-roller was introduced. and the main roads made somewhat better, but it was not till the middle of the second decade of the century that roads as we know them today, came into being.



Thursday, 18 November 2021

Some Takeaways from Susie Pinel’s Talk at the Chamber Lunch


Some Takeaways from Susie Pinel’s Talk at the Chamber Lunch

The Treasury is continuing to fund government plan.

“Putting children first” – she can’t have been hearing news on underfunded schools

Supporting a “vibrant” economy. Meaningless adjective.

Valuing the environment

Savings to be made across sectors to generate a balanced budget by 2024-2025. As can already be seen in Education!

The fiscal stimulus fund will be used to boost Jersey’s economy. The Three T’s are back again – Timely, Targeted and Terrible. The projects were not given but she did give away that there would be a focus on the construction industry. This is exactly the same as when this was done last time, ten years ago, when other sectors of the economy barely got a look in, and the supposition was that there would be a trickle down effect from building works to the rest of the economy – but nothing direct. There wasn't.

“No significant increases in taxation” – "significant" is an interesting word, isn't it?

States borrowing for major construction of new hospital, nothing else on horizon. No mention of new Cyril Le Marquand House and potential capital costs there, which slipped her memory!

World class IT infrastructure for Jersey’s government. No mention that it is 10 million over budget at £27m from £17m and still not on time. Not what “world class” meant in my day. Covid digital passport still delayed. World class delays and overspends?

Separate taxation – married partners [not as stated by Susie, just husband and wife]. From 2023 by choice, for everyone from 2025. Compensatory allowances for those losing out from marginal relief. No mention that it is time limited.

Stamp duty may be brought in on Share Transfer companies where property changes hands but as it is linked to shareholdings changing, avoids stamp duty.

Payroll systems – combined forms mean TIN numbers are needed in payroll systems from 2022.

Medical cannabis – companies to be taxed at 20%.

GST – de minimus from 2023 reduced to £60 from £135. Negotiating with Amazon on point of sale collection but wants to avoid Australia scenario. (They had shipping by Amazon suspended by being too heavy handed). From questions from the floor, retailers not happy with that as average purchase online is order of £25.  Reduction to £60 means more staff, and more packages delayed while GST is unpaid. £25 generates a whopping £1.25 GST, but in terms of staff times and storage probably costs at least twice as much. 

Covid Commentary and Roundup of News



A round up of news stories covering booster jabs, age risk in Covid demographics, antiviral drugs, and vaccines and long Covid.

The main concerns are waning vaccination, which can be improved by boosters (see booster jabs), and death and Long Covid, both of which have risk reduced by vaccines, but where the reduction is very much age related.

For example, someone aged 80 who is fully vaccinated essentially takes on the risk of an unvaccinated person of around 50 – much lower, but still not nothing, and so we can expect some deaths. The effectiveness of vaccines is often given as one figure, which is misleading. The stories below show how age is such a significant factor, especially with breakthrough infections and their severity.

New antiviral drugs now emerging (see below) may help reduce that risk of hospitalisation and death.

Long covid can be debilitating, and is also an issue with breakthrough infections (see story below). Unfortunately, no good statistics are being kept and published locally on long covid and vaccination and age ranges, so we are very much in the dark here.

A case below shows this is still very much a risk, and while we may rejoice that in our local statistics hospital numbers remain low, long covid is likely to increase as numbers of cases of Covid rise - because the probabilities of more of the population being affected increases directly with cases in the community.

Current trends - over 1,000 cases of Covid known in the community almost suggest a move towards herd immunity though infection, even though this is not stated as public policy.

The current numbers of direct contacts of active cases (over 8,000) and the testing capacity (2,000 swabs per day), as well as the single site of the harbour for testing suggest a rethink is on the cards. As direct contacts unless showing symptoms are only strongly advised to keep more isolated, the gap between being a direct contact and getting a PCR test is now in the order of around 3 or more days. This in turn means more Covid can seed the community.

Opening the airport PCR test site again should help process more people and keep numbers down. Opening the airport PCR lab as well as the hospital one would also get the direct contacts down rapidly. These are simple measures which will help slow the spread of Covid, as once people test positive, they must by law self-isolate for 10 days.

Apart from that, the increase in lateral flow tests is also a help. Unlike PCR tests, lateral flow tests cannot detect very low levels of coronavirus in a sample. This means the test may not give a positive result if you have only recently been infected; are in the incubation period.

However, a recent study in Clinical Epidemiology showed that lateral flow tests (LFTs) are likely more than 80% effective at detecting any level of infection and also more than 90% effective at detecting those who are most infectious when using the test.

And finally mandatory mask wearing will also stop the spread in the community. As we know from past experience, "strongly advise" means for a number of people "mainly ignore". The effectiveness of mandatory mask wearing has been seen last November, and again this summer when numbers were high. Again, not 100% effective, but like a Swiss cheese, the more layers of protection against Covid the better the outcome. Reliance on boosters and lateral flow tests may not be enough. Each has "holes" in it.

Last year, mask wearing and other restrictions came too little, too late, and most of the Christmas period was spent in lockdown - bad for mental health, hospitality industry. Acting too late was the main cause of the need for a more severe lockdown, and it is about time that lesson was learnt. 

If we lose Christmas again, despite these obvious lessons from the past, you know who to blame.

Booster Jabs

Double-jabbed vulnerable and elderly people are dying from Covid-19 due to the efficacy of the vaccine waning, a senior adviser has said.

The effects of coronavirus vaccines are known to wane some five or six months after the second dose, as discovered in multiple studies during the pandemic.


It comes as the government launches a campaign to encourage take-up of booster jabs this autumn.

While most of those dying with Covid-19 are unvaccinated, reports last week said Number 10 was concerned about hospital admissions and deaths among double-vaccinated people rising due to waning immunity.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/vaccine-waning-immunity-covid-deaths-b1953158.html

Vaccines and Covid: The Age Risk Profile

The coronavirus vaccines are still working extremely well, research shows, even in the era of the dangerous delta variant. Unvaccinated individuals are more than 10 times as likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 and more than 10 times as likely to die from the disease as vaccinated people, according to a new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

But on the rare occasion that a vaccinated person does fall seriously ill with COVID-19 — it’s happened to about 0.008 percent of the 176 million fully vaccinated Americans — it’s likely to be an older adult. About 70 percent of breakthrough infections that have required hospitalization have been in adults 65 and older, the latest CDC data shows. This population also accounts for 87 percent of breakthrough deaths.

https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2021/older-people-breakthrough-covid.html

Mounting data suggest that older people are at higher risk of severe disease from a breakthrough infection of COVID-19—and scientists say that should come as no surprise. After all, older age brackets have been disproportionately at risk throughout the pandemic, and that continues to be true even once someone is fully vaccinated.

Health officials are seeing worrying evidence that older age groups continue to be at higher risk from the pandemic. According to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, people over 65 account for 67 percent of hospitalizations and 85 percent of deaths from breakthrough cases. And recent media reports citing data from Seattle, Washington, and the United Kingdom show that older vaccinated people face similar—and, in some cases, greater—risks of severe disease than unvaccinated children.

In September the CDC reported that the vaccines are only about 78 percent effective at preventing infection among people of all ages after six months.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/why-older-vaccinated-people-face-higher-risks-for-severe-covid-19

Antiviral Drugs

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer requested emergency authorization Tuesday for Paxlovid, a five-day antiviral pill regimen the company found to reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by 89 percent.

The announcement comes as covid-19 cases increase in many parts of the country, raising fears among public health officials that a fifth case surge could hit the nation during the winter. If authorized, the drug could help stave off hospitalizations and deaths that are already overwhelming hospitals in states such as Colorado and Minnesota.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/11/16/covid-delta-variant-live-updates/

Vaccines and Long Covid: The Risk is Always There

People who are fully vaccinated against Covid-19 appear to have a much lower likelihood of developing long Covid than unvaccinated people even when they contract the coronavirus, a study published Wednesday indicated.

The research is among the earliest evidence that immunization substantially decreases the risk of long Covid even when a breakthrough infection occurs. Already, researchers had said that by preventing many infections entirely, vaccines would reduce the number of cases of long Covid, but it wasn’t clear what the risk would be for people who still got infected after vaccination.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/09/01/vaccination-reduces-risk-long-covid-even-when-people-are-infected-study/

People like April Zaleski know COVID-19’s worst outcomes aren’t limited to severe disease and death, even for the fully vaccinated. Zaleski, a 32-year-old from Idaho, caught COVID-19 in July 2021 after being vaccinated in January. She recovered after a couple weeks and thought the worst was behind her. But then her fatigue came back with force, along with brain fog, shortness of breath, vertigo and a skyrocketing heart rate. She began to suspect she had Long COVID, the name adopted by people who suffer symptoms long after their initial infection.

Long COVID “was on my radar,” Zaleski says, “but having been vaccinated, I hoped that my chances of that happening were slim to none.”

Indeed, the vast majority of vaccinated people who catch COVID-19 will not develop Long COVID, just as they will not die or go to the hospital; many won’t even have symptoms or realize they’re infected. But some will develop symptoms that don’t go away. Some, like Zaleski, already have. “There are so many people who are recovering from COVID, and that’s absolutely wonderful,” she says. But others “are struggling with long-term symptoms, and I just wish that people knew that side of COVID better.”

https://time.com/6102534/breakthrough-infections-long-covid/

Sunday, 14 November 2021

The Origins of Early Christian Literature: A Comment

“I am looking at literary networks—the networks of fellow writers—for evidence of formative influence. I am resisting the notion that the gospel authors (and by this I primarily mean the authors of the Synoptic gospels) are acting as something of a Romantic spokesperson or “genius” for the illiterate Christians around them.” (Robyn Walsh)

I enjoyed listening to the Podcast where Mark Goodacre interviews Robyn Walsh on her book “The Origins of Early Christian Literature”. In these comments, while I am critical of many aspects of her thesis, it should be noted that I am not arguing for the complete historicity of everything in the Gospels or Acts. 

Part of my criticism also stems from similarities between some of Walsh's treatment of material, and ones regarding in particular Frazer's Golden Bough, where I am coming from a background of study in the field of paganism and neopaganism rather than New Testament origins. The similarity of her treatment of texts and the methodology of Frazer struck me at once when listening to the podcast.

Walsh’s thesis, as I understand it, is that we should not understand the New Testament gospels and the book of Acts as having some kind of basis in believing communities, but instead should “understand the gospels as ‘normal’ ancient literature produced by educated, elite members of Greco-Roman society”

As she says, “The true origins of Christianity are in how its canonical texts were later collated, circulated, and established as authoritative, not in the mythic constructions we find described in the writings themselves”

And she says the history of the early church described in the Acts of the Apostles is an “invented tradition”.

Indeed, according to her, “the gospels are engaged in the same discourses, imagery, and style of creative elaboration as their peers” – those who wrote novelistic literature.

For Walsh, references to sources, e.g., “eyewitnesses” in the preface to the Gospel according to Luke, represent literary topoi (strategies of invention), and “specific characteristics of Jesus’ portrayal in the Synoptics need not be a function of oral tradition, but a reflection of the rational interests of elite, imperial writers”

Now there is nothing wrong with that as a working hypothesis, but the alternative one that there might in fact be eyewitnesses should surely not be discounted. Her approach which leads her to say that of the gospel writers that “there is only so much we can determine in terms of their motivations, conversation partners, audiences, and so forth” only holds together provided she can discount the preface to Luke’s gospel which states the author’s motivation.

To argue that the prefaces of Luke and Acts are strategies of invention does not explain why Luke should be so singular in making use of them, while Matthew and Mark do not.

Moreover, we have the strange phenomena whereby one author takes another's writing and reworks it, and another does the same, incorporating new material, and also adapting and taking from the other two. I have not yet seen an example of that in the ancient literature. Alternative, if we posit one author, then the rewrites attempt different styles which also seems strange.  

The rewrite which Matthew makes to the empty tomb story in Mark addresses a criticism that the body had been stolen. Or are we to take it that this was added in line with other empty tomb stories and Matthew knew of those and added them in his novelistic account? Both seem plausible, one within stories circulating within a community, and the other with the framework of novelistic literature, and the community background cannot be discounted so easily as Walsh would like.

The Unknown Writers

“Writers need not be a part of a religious community in order to write about Jesus, for example, but they must be a part of a social network that is in a position to circulate or publish their works. Whether such a network also counts among its members what we might call “Christians” in part or in full is something the field will continue to interrogate. “

So where is this social network? Unlike other works cited as Greek or Roman novels, which for the most part have known authorship, the textual tradition makes it as certain as can be that the original writings had no ascription, which is very strange if they are writing in a social network of fellow writers.

Moreover, when the first historical documents mention all or parts of the gospels, we find them within the Christian communities, and not with any other social network of fellow writers. How did they move from being novels within a social network to their use within the early Christian communities if they were not intended in the first place for that readership?

Walsh’s statement that “specific characteristics of Jesus’ portrayal in the Synoptics need not be a function of oral tradition, but a reflection of the rational interests of elite, imperial writers” is an interesting hypothesis if there were no Christian communities, but we know from Paul’s letters, the later Pastoral epistles, and the individuals we may identify as “the early Church fathers” (such as Clement of Rome, Ignatius, Justin Martyr etc), that were was a Christian community in which the person of Jesus played an important role.

It would seem that for gospels which were essentially mostly novelistic fictions to be incorporated into the Christian communities, there must have first been enough overlap that there was nothing which obviously contradicted those communities, and then directed their usage of them. Secondly, enough time to have passed for no eyewitnesses to Jesus to contradict the broad outline of the narratives, or eyewitnesses with insufficient power within the communities to displace them if they were seen as what in effect were pious fictions.

Rather than the “Big Bang” theory of Christian origins, Walsh seems to have provided just as problematic account of the gospels when they fell, fully formed, into the traditions of the early Christian communities and were accepted and assimilated with ease. By removing the community as the locus for the writers, the community then has to become the terminus for the writers’ stories.

By giving up the idea of “communities” associated with the gospels at their origin (as stated above), she faces the problem of how they ended up being associated with Christian communities and no other g social networks afterwards. The distance she posits as possible between writers and communities is very problematic. And we know from Paul that the core traditions of the early communities had the major points of crucifixion, resurrection, Lord's supper which were written before the gospels and part of the tradition Paul inherited. 

But if we assume the writers came from those kinds of communities (hence the core traditions and the use of them in their novels), then we are faced with the question of why the communities accepted those narratives. We know from the reception of the Acts of Paul and Thelca that even a pious fiction would be rejected as factual if known to be so, and it is not such a great historical distance between the gospels and that.

The Book of Acts in History

One of the most remarkable features of the book of Acts is the account of Paul and Gallio in Acts 18:12–17 (NIV84):

While Gallio was proconsul of Achaia, the Jews made a united attack on Paul and brought him into court. “This man,” they charged, “is persuading the people to worship God in ways contrary to the law.” Just as Paul was about to speak, Gallio said to the Jews, “If you Jews were making a complaint about some misdemeanour or serious crime, it would be reasonable for me to listen to you. But since it involves questions about words and names and your own law—settle the matter yourselves. I will not be a judge of such things.” So he had them ejected from the court. Then they all turned on Sosthenes the synagogue ruler and beat him in front of the court. But Gallio showed no concern whatever.

One of the problems with discounting the historicity of Acts, and looking upon it as invention, is that it assumes the author knew of Gallio, and places him in the correct place geographically. We know from a stone inscription that Gallio was appointed by Emperor Claudius to be proconsul of Achaia around July 51 A.D. He was proconsul for about only a year.

Why would an author creating a Roman novel put in Gallio as proconsul of Achaia if he was not taking at least some of his facts from history?

Regarding modern novels, there’s an interesting difference in the way two authors approach novels with a historical background. In Dan Brown’s “Da Vinci Code”, what is not pillaged from “Holy Blood and Holy Grail” is just made up. Aspects of geography and facts about artefacts are altered to accommodate the plot. The same happens in the stinker of a book “Digital Fortress” where ciphers and the Enigma machine are mispresented in a sloppy careless way. Brown is really writing fiction, and he could not care about facts. 

Robert Harris, on the other hand, takes great care to research historical details and background and his books on Pompeii or Cicero, while fiction, contain a substantial core of historicity (as far as we can know from sources).

Like Dan Brown, the Golden Ass or the Satyricon contains no references to real people or places, but Acts does. If it is a work of fiction, it is more like Harris than Brown. But where in the ancient world do we find an author placing in his work of fiction the accurate name and geographical location for a small interval of time? And why would they do it?

This seems to me to tip the balance towards Acts having a solid core of history rather than being a work of fiction, and that would mean that the authorial intent, as described in the prologue, has to be taken seriously and not discounted as literary topoi.

But once we do that for Acts, we have to take the prologue to the Gospel of Luke as seriously, that the author is not indulging in a literary trope, but engaged in a process of writing a document which he regards as based on a historical core, and for which he was engaged in research on sources, potentially eyewitnesses.

A Genetic Fallacy?

“We can no more posit a Markan community than we posit a Virgilian community or a Philonic community. We just have to deal with the author.”

Walsh regards the notion of the gospels emerging from a community of believers and an oral tradition as a myth which has its roots in the Romantic tradition and treatment of folk tales. I am not wholly persuaded by this argument. It is well known, for example, that Julius Wellhausen’s understanding of the formation of the Torah was heavily influenced by Hegelian ideas about the dialectic of historical forces, but the analysis taken up, and then improved by others was not dependent upon its origins.

Genetic accounts of an issue may be true, and they may help illuminate the reasons why the issue has assumed its present form, but they are not conclusive in determining its merits. Unfortunately a lot of time is spend in placing what she sees as “the myth of Christian origins” within this historical framework, which is almost a textbook example of the genetic fallacy.

The source criticism of the Torah, for example, has been supplemented by a more exact study of ancient Hebrew, and differences in the vocabulary of the text, and does not require the underpinning of a Hegelian dialectic.

Fair Comparison or Parallelomania?

Walsh says that “When compared side by side, the bioi (lives) written by the gospel authors are no more remarkable than writings like Lucian’s Demonax, the Satyrica, other Greek and Roman novels, or later works like Apuleius’ Metamorphoses (a.k.a. The Golden Ass), among others.”

She sees this kind of comparison by placing the resurrection stories as part of a Roman imperial and Greek heroic, mythographic tradition, about the fable of a mortal who becomes a hero or god, and puts Jesus alongside figures like Romulus, Alexander the Great, Castor and Pollux, Herakles, or Asclepius”

When I heard this, it reminded me of Frazer’s Golden Bough. The concept of a dying-and-rising god was first proposed in comparative mythology by James Frazer's seminal The Golden Bough (1890) Frazer was notable for placing stories about Jesus within a tradition of a dying-and-rising god – a religious motif in which a god or goddess dies and is resurrected.

Frazer was very influential, but was also very superficial in drawing parallels. The main critique was that his evidences were a surface-level collation of analogous stories which exaggerated the importance of trifling resemblances.

The strongest argument against deploying this with ancient literature was probably given by Samuel Sandmel in 1962, where he argued against what he termed “parallelomania”

Sandmel notes that: “We might for our purposes define parallelomania as that extravagance among scholars which first overdoes the supposed similarity in passages and then proceeds to describe source and derivation as if implying literary connection flowing in an inevitable or predetermined direction”

“Two passages may sound the same in splendid isolation from their context, but when seen in context reflect difference rather than similarity.”

The Empty Tomb

The example by Walsh of the empty tomb is a good example. A number of empty tomb stories are mentioned, and in particular she cites that of the Satyricon. Most of these are superficial in their similarity, although the Satyricon as has been noted seems to be aware of and mocking the gospel narrative.

It is well summarised by Andy Reimer:

“Here a faithful wife remains in the tomb of her dead husband, while nearby a soldier is guarding crosses to prevent robbers’ remains from being removed and properly buried. The wife and soldier eventually end up in a three night sexual tryst in the dead husband’s tomb. The parents of one of the crucified, seeing the guard was lax, steal the body and bury it. The guard, suicidal over the empty cross, certain of his punishment, was only prevented from ending his life by the quick thinking virtuous wife. She offers her husband’s body to be placed on the empty cross and the following day onlookers wondered “by what means the dead man ascended the cross””

No one who has read the gospel narratives and the Satyricon in detail can confuse them as being anything like a similar genre. The latter contains serious and comic elements; and erotic and decadent passages. As parallels with the gospel goes, it is an extremely bad comparison. And in a similar way, other apparent parallels fall down when we consider context and details.

In fact, the idea that Mark is employing a certain, well-worn illustration of the super-natural status of his subject only works as long as the assumption is that he produces something entirely unlike the Roman novel. I've read the Golden Ass, the Satyricon, and the Demonax, and they couldn't be more unlike that. 

The nearest comparison are the ancient biographies, such as Plutarch’s first-century Life of
Alexander (the Great), Suetonius’s early second-century Lives of the Caesars, and the Life of Apollonius of Tyana, a first-century teacher and miracle worker, by the Greek philosopher Philostratus
(ca. 170—ca. 247).  While these may not be pure history, most scholars agree they are not mere novelistic fictions and contain a historical core. Acts, however, is more akin in style to ancient historiography in which could be compared to the writings of Herodotus and Thucydides, again with a historical core.  

The notion which has been mooted that it is more like a historical romance novel - for instance Xenophone's An Ephesian tale but the tone of those is more akin to writings such as "The Acts of Paul and Thelca". The fact that Acts contains at least some certain historical facts - that relating to Gallio - whereas the Thelca narrative falls down on accuracy would seem to put it more in the category of ancient historiography.

Literary Novels and Oral Traditions

The dominant post-Gutenberg paradigm for understanding the gospels and any underlying tradition has been a literary one, as despite the supposition of oral traditions, most New Testament scholars actually work from a literary model even though they pay lip service to an underlying oral traditions. Robyn Walsh takes the paradigm one step further by removing the need for an oral tradition altogether and effectively disconnecting the gospels from history. In this instance, the Christ of the Gospels is largely a novelistic fiction, built from scraps of knowledge filled out by the writers.

But against that should be set an approach - that by James DG Dunn in "Jesus Remembered" which actually does take oral tradition seriously and builds on the impact that Jesus must have had on his earliest disciples and the emergence of the church. Should we be considering transmission within an oral culture seriously or just discounting it?

Concluding Comments

I think that imaginary histories of the process by which the gospels were written, whether by oral traditions, Christian communities, or elite authors for that matter, are all hypothetical by their nature, and however convincing, cannot be checked by fact. 

In such circumstances, examining weaknesses of an approach can yield useful methodological information, and in challenging the status quo, Walsh forces her readers to re-examine the more conventional approaches to looking at the gospel texts, and also to see where such approaches have greater strengths than her thesis. 

The questioning of an approach which involves eyewitnesses - taken by Walsh as a literary fiction - must also take into account the time frame for the writing of the Gospels and Acts. 

A general flaw in later lives of saints (for example) is to assume the geographical and historical background of the past is close to that of the present, a flaw also seen in Thelca, whereas earlier lives reflect far more accurately the milieu and locale in which they were written. 

Most historians would see saints lives written close to the time of the saint - the Life of St Martin, Life of St Sampson etc - as more likely to be closer to history if eyewitnesses could still be living, and could critique any fictions. Other lives of Saints have gaps of 400 years or more, and invariably look more like pious fictions. 


Saturday, 13 November 2021

Wars Remembered












An acrostic poem for Remembrance Sunday (tomorrow)

Wars Remembered

Remember, this day, a moment of peace
Everything stops. Let the fighting cease
Mourn the fallen, those lives lost in war
Every precious testimony of what they saw
Mud, barbed wire, shells: echoes of death
Bravery, courage, and then the last breath
Everyone was also another mother’s son
Recall the push, that final deadly run

The bombs fell, buildings ablaze in the night
Hearing the whine and then seeing the light
Everyone in the cities lived through this blight

Fight never stops, in the lands close and far
And battle worn, wounded, always a scar
Let the last post sound, the trumpet’s lament
Let each note ring out, let the silence be rent
Endings remembered, but wounded live on
Now salute as they march past, and are gone.

Friday, 12 November 2021

Sir Richard Henegan, who served in the Peninsular War and at Waterloo




















PASSING through the graveyard of St Brelade’s Church cemetery is a gravestone remembering “Sir Richard Henegan, who served in the Peninsular War and at Waterloo”.

BIRTH 28 Dec 1783
DEATH 28 Dec 1872 (aged 89)

The Peninsular War (1807–1814) was a military conflict between Napoleon's empire and the Spanish who were trying to take control of the Kingdom of Portugal, and the United Kingdom.

Chief among the military leaders was Arthur Wellesley, Duke of Wellington, who also defeated Napoleon at the Battle of Waterloo.

Henegan was Military Commissary in the Field Train, in charge of supplying ammunition to the British and Portuguese armies and was twice almost executed by Spanish guerrillas when away from his unit.

For his service during these campaigns he was awarded the title of Knight of the Royal Guelphic Order, a decoration founded by George III and handed out for distinguished services to the UK from 1815-1837.

He later wrote of his experiences in a memoir “Seven years Campaigning in the Peninsula and the Netherlands 1808-1815”, described as an “entertaining bustling narrative.”

At Waterloo he was commended for providing ‘a timely and important supply of ammunition towards the close of day’ despite having to transport it ‘over bad roads with but scanty means of transport


Extract from the Book
(Paintings are sourced independently by me, and are not in the book)

CHAPTER XXXI.

HISTORIANS have celebrated, and poets sung, the Field of Waterloo; and as far as it has been possible, have dilated upon the beginning, progress, and result of that eventful battle, until nothing has been left to add to the many glowing pictures they have transmitted to posterity. It is true that all have been subjected, more or less, to the charge of incorrectness, on some particular point or another, and have given rise to contradiction and controversy, nor is it possible that it should be otherwise, when it is considered that information on the details of battles must necessarily be gleaned from individuals, whose individual feelings are interested, and consequently are to be gratified.



Leaving therefore such points as admit of dispute to those who have already met on the hostile ground of controversy concerning them, it will perhaps be more interesting to look back upon the plains of Waterloo through that prism only, whose faithful accuracy time has tested; and which brings them to the view of all, as plains hallowed by the lifeblood of the brave: as plains, on which thousands of deep imbedded recollections linger still.

Vain indeed would be the efforts of the human pen, accurately as it might delineate the leading features of the contest on the plains of Waterloo, to trace even the faintest outline of the feelings that flowed from that vast fount of human suffering. How many have found refuge in the grave from the intensity of sorrow, that mingled with the name of Waterloo. How many have withered in the chill blight of memory, unable to force the sap of life from its strong tenement, and thus dragged on a miserable existence!

Others again—like the sapling that bows to the earth its young head as the raging storm sweeps over it, escaping annihilation by bending to the stroke-were laid prostrate by the sudden wrenching in twain of ardent affection. Sorrowing in deep despair over the field of Waterloo, their grief found at length extinction, in its own violence.














On the morning of the eventful 18th of June, the allies rose from their bivouac on the wet earth—for the night had been a tempestuous one—and prepared to face the formidable enemy that lay stretched, in masses of cavalry and infantry, along the opposite heights. This army, headed by Napoleon, numbered eighty thousand men, and was supported by a well-equipped artillery of two hundred and fifty guns. Moreover, it possessed the immense advantage of being composed of men of one nation; men, bound together by the pride of country, as well as by an enthusiastic feeling towards their sovereign and leader.

Whereas, of the allied army under Wellington's command, although but slightly inferior in point of numbers to the French, twenty five-thousand only were British soldiers. The rest were foreign troops; some of which were nobly brave others were rendered useful auxiliaries by the power of good example  while others again were to be trusted so cautiously, that their absence from the field would only have been felt as a security against treachery.


The hostile armies occupied heights running nearly parallel with each other. The distance that separated them was about twelve hundred yards, and the intermediate ground, or rather valley, formed by a gentle declivity on either side. was richly covered with luxuriant corn.

The allied forces stretched across the high roads that lead to Brussels from Charleroi and Nivelles, having in their rear, at a distance of about two miles, the Forest of Soignies. Their left extended to the hamlet of Ter la Haye, from whence a road leads to St. Lambert, by which a communication with the Prussians was maintained. In front of their left centre stood the farm-house and gardens of La Haye Sainte, and towards the centre of their right, the Château of Hougoumont.

The enemy's attack on the latter position at about eleven o'clock A.M., on the 18th, was the commencement of the battle of Waterloo.


 
At about that hour, a numerous host of tirailleurs advanced close to the wood and orchard of the château, followed by two massive columns of the 2nd corps of the French army, under Jerome Buonaparte. Pressing rapidly through the waving corn, these columns were next seen as rapidly pressing up the slopes that led to Hougoumont; but here they had to deal with British and German valour, and while a detachment of the guards that occupied the house poured upon the assailants a fire calculated to impair the ardour of the assault, the opening thunder of the battle pealed through the air from Cleeves's battery of nine-pounders, stationed on a height, at a distance of about three hundred yards to the left, and a little in advance of the front line.

The leading column was seen to lose its firmness, and to hurry onwards, when a second roar of artillery, from the battery of Captain Sandham, posted on a height that nearly faced the advancing foe, stopped its progress, by laying low the front ranks. Before the rear could fill up the gaps, Cleeves' guns were again at work, and as the two batteries threw, with deadly aim, their showers of spherical and case shot on front and flank, the columns wheeled round, and retired in precipitation and disorder.


Thus commenced the battle of Waterloo; a battle that differed from all others in the sacrifices demanded and conceded during its long continuance, of nine hours. Wellington had taken the best position left to him. It covered the capital of Belgium—it communicated on the left with the Prussians. The undulating nature of the ground was favourable for acting on the defensive until the arrival and co-operation of Blucher, and upon strict adherence to the defensive, the safety of Wellington depended.

Here then was no field for the display of skilful generalship, and tactical knowledge. The one great essential to a Commander so placed, was firmness, and fortunately for the allies, Wellington possessed that attribute in no small degree. The one great essential for soldiers so placed, was blind obedience—which is a habit rather than a principle and was so rigidly inculcated in the British army by the Duke of Wellington, that he well knew how far he could depend upon its practice in the field.


 
Necessity demanded that the position of the allies at Waterloo should be maintained, though rivers of blood should flow from its defenders. And more than this; necessity demanded that brave men should stand passively to be slain, nor slay in turn, until, like automatons, their faculties were put into movement by a superior power. This it was, that made the bloody field of Waterloo one, over which angels might have wept

No retaliation was offered by the brave, the young, the haughty, as mutilated and bleeding, their comrades fell in heaps around them. The flashing eye and panting heart, told what the spirit longed to do; but confidence in their leader, and blind obedience to his will, were stronger even than revenge, and like lambs they stood the slaughter, until the word of command roused them to be lions.


During this contest, the French varied their modes of attack, sometimes by advancing columns of infantry, flanked by cavalry, and under cover of a powerful artillery. At such times, our gunners, posted on the rising ground, would throw their missiles, with tremendous effect, among the closely wedged masses, and if driven from their guns to seek shelter in the squares, our heavy cavalry rushed down the slopes, and, with their powerful horses, rode down the mailed squadrons of the foe; while our infantry deploying into line-generally only two deep-would steadily ascend the slope that sheltered it from the enemy's batteries, and facing the advancing mass, until within sometimes only twenty yards, would greet them with a well directed volley. 

The next moment, the order to charge” would be responded to by a true British “hurrah,” and before the enemy could fly back to his position, the guns, that had been momentarily abandoned, were again at work. Our infantry would then steadily resume its place behind the slopes, often lying down to avoid the fire; and the cavalry having driven back to their own territory the French squadrons, would resume its station, ready to repulse, in the same manner, similar attacks.

At other times, the French cuirassiers advanced in heavy masses, covered by their artillery. As they boldly ascended the slopes, exposed to a murderous fire from the batteries, our gunners were again driven to seek shelter in the squares, or under the limbers of their guns, where many were lanced and sabred.


The slopes that at morning's dawn had worn their covering of freshest verdure, were at evening's close, heaped depositories of dead men's bodies. The corn that had waved in rich luxuriance, was now trampled to the earth from whence it sprung, stanching with its heavy fruitfulness, many a stream that flowed from the death-gaps of the brave. The clearness of a summer sky was screened by a thick and lurid atmosphere that pressed upon the field of carnage, as gloom presses on the hearts of men, who think themselves sacrificed in vain. And such was, for a time, the thought of many who lived to see the evening hour on the field of Waterloo.

It was nearly seven o'clock, when a thrill of renewed hope and joyful excitement revived the fagged and drooping spirits of our diminished squares and exhausted squadrons. The hour had at length arrived when fortitude and forbearance were to meet with their reward; and as Blucher's guns boomed in the distance, each man felt that the signal of revenge was given in that glad sound. On Napoleon's ear, the echo fell as the knell of departing glory. One hope and one alone remained. The Imperial Guard had never yet been vanquished.

This veteran band of fifteen thousand men, which had taken little part in the contest of the day, was now ordered to charge the British line; and with noble intrepidity, these renowned warriors, headed by the chivalrous Ney, rushed with fresh and unimpaired vigour to our slopes.

As they advanced, a tremendous fire from our artillery poured destruction into their ranks ; yet, still pressing forward, they gallantly made their way to the ridge that concealed the British guards. The fate of Europe hung upon the crisis; and fortune held in reserve for Wellington, at that moment, the proudest distinction of his military life.

“Up, guards, and at them,” are words that will thrill through the hearts of men, long after who spoke them, and they, who responded to them, are passed away.

The guards sprung up from their recumbent position at the welcome command, and poured a volley into the advancing column that stopped effectually its progress. Panic-stricken, the Imperial veterans staggered, as a second well-directed fire took fatal effect among them; and as the British guards charged with overwhelming fury down the hill, these old soldiers durst not meet the shock, but turned and fled in wild disorder, pursued by the victorious guards and Adam's light brigade.

Vainly did some of the vieille garde, in reserve at the bottom of the descent, try to reform the routed columns.

Our cavalry, headed by the noble Uxbridge, dashed among them, driving them onwards into the thick confusion, that now began to envelope, in every direction, the French army.


 
By this time, the Prussians were pressing heavily on the right flank of the enemy; and Wellington, no longer restrained by the stern necessity of prudence, which had been so dearly practised throughout the long day of tumult and anxiety, ordered his whole line to advance upon the foe.

The brave allies, forgetting past tribulation in present glory, advanced with loud cheers to the attack; and the last effulgent rays of a setting sun shone on the conqueror, Wellington, as he led the general charge. With desperate valour, the warriors of the Imperial guard endeavoured to check the tide of victory by making a stand worthy of their high repute. Vain effort ! Onwards, like a tempestuous torrent, rushed the victorious allies, sweeping before them, in one blended mass, a confused and broken multitude, while the Prussian cavalry, animated by a spirit of deadly hatred, followed up the pursuit with eager ferocity, repaying with interest, upon the flying remains of la grande armée, their long standing debt of revenge.


On the ground where stood, on the morning of the 18th, this formidable army of Napoleon, the junction of the allies with the Prussians was consummated at close of day, by the meeting of Wellington and Blucher, and by the mingling together of British and Prussian voices in one heartfelt cry of “victory."
  



Wednesday, 10 November 2021

The Missing Number














Mind the Gap

Apparently the forthcoming hospital Covid facility (ITV news report) will be able to analyse up to 2,000 swabs a day with results back within around 12 hours. What this doesn't do is look at the time for the contact tracing team to get in touch.

Government procedures state: "If you are a direct contact of someone positive with COVID-19 you will be notified by the Government of Jersey's COVID Safe team by text message or email. You will be provided a date and time for a PCR test."

There are currently 4,545 direct contacts of active cases. At 2,000 swabs a day, this means over 2 days to process and get results back on that.

Once swabbed, the results probably will be back within around 12 hours. But how long will it take for the contact tracing team to contact them, and book them in. Even if they could book in 2,000 for one day, that still means a gap of a day... with more contacts coming in as well in increasing numbers while those get tested.

The Missing Number

It's a bit like those hospital waiting lists. The time on hospital waiting lists only begins when they put you on the list, and that can itself take time. In the case of the test system, the results come back within around 12 hours - after you have had the PCR test, and the time waiting for one is not factored into these figures. That's the missing number.

Now some of those direct contacts may be waiting for results, but as numbers increase the delay between being identified as a direct contact, and getting a PCR test booked in - with the airport testing site closed and just the harbour one open - means that gap is going to grow significantly high.

Thinking Carefully!!!

The procedure for a direct contact before the PCR test is, if symptomatic, to self-isolate until the test and then the result of the test. If no symptoms:

If you are notified that you are a direct contact of a positive case, you are not required to isolate unless you have symptoms, but you must think very carefully about the activities you undertake and the places you visit for the next 10 days, even if you receive a negative test result.

You should:
-arrange to work from home where possible
-not attend work until you receive a negative result
-limit social contact and do not see multiple circles of friends or family
-avoid spending time in crowded or busy places
-wear a mask in indoor areas, regularly wash your hands and maintain physical distancing where possible


Note that these are recommendations, and given the number of people who follow the recommendations to wear masks in indoor places now - or rather the number who don't - numbers will continue rising.

Why mask wearing needs to be mandatory

The game changer is mask wearing. When made mandatory back in July, the numbers took a downward turn almost at once. Winter months will probably mean less effect, but some effect is almost certain. 

"Strongly advise" can be translated into two words - "mostly ignore". 

If the last three waves have shown us anything it is the truth of that. "Hindsight is a wonderful thing" is often bandied by those who are in charge when criticised, but a better aphorism is that used by Churchill: "“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”" 

The evidence is there. All the goverment has to do is see it, and act responsibly.

Tuesday, 9 November 2021

TV Shows I enjoyed in the last century: 7-12

















TV Shows I enjoyed in the last century: 7: The Avengers (1965-1969).

"Mrs Peel, we're needed". Those wonderful introduction sequences with music by Laurie Johnson, that Bowler Hat, banter - "Always keep your bowler on in times of stress, and a watchful eye open for diabolical masterminds.".

Despite critics I liked the Tara King series as much as the Emma Peel ones. Wonderful to see in colour in satellite repeats because it was all black and white TV back in the 1960s!

Assassination by laser! Invisible spies! Housecats trained to kill! Politicians hypnotised into becoming children! Escape into time! The Fear Merchants! And of course the Cybernauts.

And who can forget Emma Peel in "A Touch of Brimstone" in her very daring S&M outfit! Or her harem outfit in "Honey for the Prince".

For all its fantastical elements, it is still great fun to watch, that slightly tongue in cheek approach, the eccentrics who pop up all over the place,

As of late 2020, Thorson is the last living main cast member, with both Honor Blackman and Diana Rigg having passed away earlier that year.



TV Shows I enjoyed in the last century: 8: Bewitched.

Probably deemed too twee nowadays, I really enjoyed this. American situation comedy that aired on ABC from 1964 to 1972. Bewitched followed the fortunes of Samantha (played by Elizabeth Montgomery), a suburban housewife who also happens to be a witch. Dick York was her neurotic husband Darrin. Agnes Moorehead played Samantha's mother, Endora.

Samantha casts spells by twitching her nose - a wonderful idea! I bet a lot of young girls tried that after watching the show!

Did you know? The star's biography was "Twitch Upon a Star The Bewitched Life and Career of Elizabeth Montgomery"

Did you know? The idea was developed (on different lines) from Rene Clair's comic film I Married a Witch (1942), also well worth viewing.

BTW: Forget the movie version, however, which was a travesty.



TV Shows I enjoyed in the last century: 9: The Generation Game.

“Nice to see you, to see you nice”
“Give us a twirl!”
"Good game, good game!"
"Let's meet the eight who are going to generate"
“Cuddly toy, cuddly toy!”

Loved watching this Saturday nights. Ordinary people, and a series of tasks, some physical, some mental, usually followed by some short and amusing playlet. And then the generation who won - father/daughter, mother/ son etc would play off against each other.

The winner would watch prizes pass on a conveyor belt, and wins as many as could be recalled in 45 seconds - and there was always a cuddly toy!

The Generation Game first aired on 2 October 1971, and for my money, the original Bruce Forsythe era was the best.

Did you know? The conveyor belt was actually often moved manually as it kept breaking down.

Life is the name of the game,
And I wanna play the game with you.
Life can be terribly tame,
If you don't play the game with two.



TV Shows I enjoyed in the last century:  10: Don't Ask Me.

Before the Thatcherite TV auction destroyed the industry, ITV had its own popular science shows, and one of my favourites was "Don't Ask Me".

This was made by Yorkshire Television for the ITV network and ran from 1974 to 1978. It attempted to answer science-based questions and contributors included Magnus Pyke (natural sciences), Rob Buckman (medicine), David Bellamy (biology), Miriam Stoppard (medicine), and Derek Griffiths.

Experts answered such crucial questions as ‘why do jellies wobble?’, ‘why are fleas good jumpers?’ and ‘do crocodiles really shed tears?’ Although there were other more serious ones like: why do we have two high tides every day? Why is my reflection upside down on one side of a spoon, but the right way up on the other side?’ Why do cats purr?’, ‘Why is yawning catching?’ and ‘Why do wheels on stagecoaches seem to go backwards in films and on television?’

Some experiments went wrong, though. He worked out the speed truck-driver John England should use to ‘fly’ a minibus across the River Avon. It was too slow. The bus sank, trapping John for 40 seconds. 
“By Jove, you are wet,” said Magnus.

Most memorable: the madly waving arms of Magnus Pyke! If ever there was an image of "mad scientist", Magnus fitted the bill admirably!

Did you know? Magnus Pyke was one of the Food Science advisors on nutrition during the Second World War.



TV Shows I enjoyed in the last century: 11: Nationwide:

Although running from 1969 to 1983, it was the years under Michael Barratt (1969–1977) that I watched it frequently.

A magazine programme, it always was interesting. The light entertainment was quite similar in tone to That's Life!, with eccentric stories such as a skateboarding duck and men who claimed that they could walk on egg shells.

There was also a Watchdog consumer section. Meanwhile, news stories from the regions helped create an identity of the UK as one nation but with regional diversity - rather a good thing.

One thing that also also sticks out is the Nationwide Christmas Pantomime, with Denis Healey on the piano. That a sitting and senior politician in the Cabinet should mug it up for fun (using the phrase "silly billy", is something we would never get now - even Boris wouldn't dare. But it captures something of the fun of the era, where politicians could sometimes be less serious and more ordinary, and I think that's something we've lost in our darker more troubled world.



TV Shows I enjoyed in the last century: 12: How!

How! was a British educational television show created by Jack Hargreaves. It was produced from 1966 to 1981 by Southern (when they lost their franchise in Thatcher's money grabbing auction of TV companies). It was on around 5.25 pm.

It provided answers to questions beginning with the word "How". Each episode began with the presenters all raising one hand and saying "How" simultaneously. Topics commonly covered included science, history, mathematics and simple puzzles.

It showed how children's TV could be educational and fun, and was never patronising. I used to watch it a lot in the 1960s and early 1970s. It was brought back

Presenters Jack Hargreaves (creator of show), Fred Dinenage (1966–1981), Jon Miller (1966–1981), Bunty James (1966–1969 and 1970–1976), Dr Tom Gaskell (1969), Jill Graham (1969–1970) and Marian Davies (1977–1981).

In 1990, the series was revived as How 2 by TVS and ran for 16 years. Recently (2020), How 3 has begun. Fred Dinenage is the only presenter to have worked on all 3 series.