Can we eliminate Covid-19 from our shores?

The Precautionary Principle

“Earlier on today apparently a woman rang the BBC and said she had heard a hurricane was on the way.” So began a weather bulletin 30 years ago. “Well I can assure people watching,” smirked weather forecaster Michael Fish, “don’t worry, there isn’t.”

Even since then when there have been high winds, the Met office has preferred to err on the side of caution, and predict the more extreme of the range. After all, I think most people would like to be prepared for more extreme weather, and are glad when things don’t turn out quite as bad as expected.

The JEP reported:

“Covid-19: Infections appear to be slowing – but lockdown extended to prevent surge in cases”

And Kevin Keen tweeted on that:

Starting to lose confidence in management of this crisis & I don’t say that lightly. First model far too pessimistic, & now not sure about latest version. A sensibly phased exit plan cannot come soon enough for so many reasons, please @GovJersey & @John_Le_Fondre  let’s have it.

The first model does seem to have been be too pessimistic, as Kevin says, but I do have sympathy with the government and its medical advisors. We have only to look to the UK to see what could have happened over here, and think to that weather report. Suppose we dismissed the worst, until it was upon us, and had to pick up the pieces afterwards. But now we can start to revise the model and look towards coming out of lockdown.

Elimination and Border Controls

Now Senator Le Fondré said that when Jersey relaunching its air and sea routes will largely depend on the UK government’s wishes, as the island is part of the Common Travel Area. However, Deputy Renouf expressed concerns on health grounds, describing opening up the flow of travel in and out of the island as “our greatest risk”.

Here I do actually agree with Richard Renouf. New Zealand shows how a swift and successful lockdown with strong border controls can work. They are very near to eliminating the virus altogether, and like them, we need to use that control. 

We can get there too because like New Zealand, we do not have large, porous land borders, and we have the advantage of a small number of active cases. 

Michael Baker, a professor who advises their government says “an ability to control entry points” is a key feature of the elimination strategy. And Time Magazine comments:

Borders might have to remain closed for an extended period to keep the virus out, although in recent days there has been some discussion around opening up to Australia once both countries have the virus under control. The economist Lees says to expect borders to remain largely closed for 12 to 18 months. He says that the economy will be radically different: “The economy can survive without international tourism, but not as we know it.”

But the price for that is buying time for a vaccine to be developed, and once the virus is eliminated internally, the opportunity exists for many businesses to reopen. The main area of concern is of course tourism, but extreme care would need to be taken and the situation monitored abroad before changes could be made there.

In the meantime, islanders who cannot get away for holidays may instead try enjoying nights spent at local hotels and guest houses, as a welcome break away, perhaps at the other end of the Island from where they live. When flights can commence, we need initially, adequate testing so that tourists are effectively self-isolated for 24 hours until we have the test results.

Eliminating coronavirus locally would be a game changer, and great care must be taken against any possible points of entry back into the Island because that might mean another lockdown. 

Social distancing will probably have to continue in one form for a while, but we can perhaps get to the point where some social distancing can be dispensed with – barbers, hairdressers, chiropractors, dentists etc, and children may need to keep with their family, but they can go on the beach to play, and others to sunbathe.

Wouldn't that be nice?

References:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/27/asia/new-zealand-elimination-coronavirus-jacinda-ardern-intl/index.html