Incomplete Statistics, or the Little Figures which aren't there

Incomplete Statistics, or the Little Figures which aren't there

The latest update, as of Monday, 20 April at 2:30pm from Jersey, and how much of an improvement has there been? Some but not nearly as much as there should be.

Negative tests:1,880
Confirmed cases: 249
Pending results: 153
There have sadly been 14 deaths related to COVID-19

Recovered: 118*
Total samples tested: 2192
Total people tested: 1914
Total Results back: 2175
Female positive %: 58%
Male positive %: 42%
Average Age tested positive: 54
Female recovered %: 55%
Male recovered %: 45%
Average age recovered %: 45
Number of hospital beds occupied: 63
Number of hospital beds available: 134
Hospital occupancy rate (in %): 32%
Number of patients with Covid-19 in hospital: 14

The statistics are improving but they are far from perfect. The slip shod way in which they have been put together shows through with the line “Average age recovered %: 45”. What precisely does that mean? Think about it. 

Guernsey Age Demographic

Average age tested positive is also a pretty useless statistic. What use is that unless we can see the spread over the population? I do get the feeling that the government is trying to get us all to buy Darrel Huff's work "How to Lie with Statistics".

In Guernsey, you can see not just how many men and woman have been tested and shown positive, but also the age profile of those testing positive. Guernsey went one step further and admitted that all of the deaths, including one in hospital, came from care homes.

They also have graphs which show how progress is being made, split between

Care Home Resident
Care Home Staff
Travel
Contacts of Known Cases
Unknown Community Source.

These are all significantly different, and they let us see if there is any clustering effect, as for instance with care homes.

When active cases are plotted, it can be seen that all are showing a reduction. That’s important, because it shows the proactive testing of all care home residents and staff when cases are found, is working, and the government has a grip on the situation in care homes.

I've had it suggested that we don't need these figures, and we should trust the government. But trust needs to be earned, and the best way to do that is to give out information to show the strategy works.

Building confidence in the strategy is a key part of how Guernsey presents its statistics. They also detail for the mathematicians like me the finer detail, should people want to see it, on how they present the statistics, what we used to call "showing the workings". Figures that popped up as answers without working out were always treated with a certain degree of suspicion by maths teachers, as unless you see the detail, you can't tell if mistakes have been made.

[Active cases are the total number of cases minus those who have recovered or are deceased. We are defining recovery as having no virus detectable on their nose / throat swab on Day 14 or later if a person is still symptomatic on Day 14]

Trust the Driver

The Need to Build Trust

I've been told "We have to trust the driver" and not criticise the government for the poor information given out. But if the driver doesn't seem to know where he is going, should you trust him?

Or to put it another way, would you trust the master of a great ocean liner, because of course he has years and years of experience, and knows vastly more than you do? I think we all know the answer to that question!

So here are some news stories which indicate a contradiction between what the government is saying, and what the position really is.

ITV News: 

A number of frontline health workers in Jersey have told ITV News they have either the wrong type of personal protective equipment (PPE), or there is a shortage of supplies.

ITV News reported the testimony of frontline staff who said they did not have access to the appropriate PPE.

In an address to the island, Senator John Le Fondré rejected these suggestions,

Baillwick Express: 

Elsewhere in the speech, the Chief Minister issued a firm rebuke to reports of a lack of adequate PPE for frontline health workers.

"The protection of our frontline health workers, who are saving lives on a daily basis, is an absolute priority," Senator Le Fondré stated.

The comment by Advocate Tim Hanson on Apr 9th, 2020 was most revealing:

It is hoped that the "rebuke" referred to in the article is just commentary. I repeat an observation I made weeks ago, that rapid response nurses dealing with people in the community (including my own relative) stated that they were not wearing masks because they were not provided with any. I can't believe they just made this up. My relative has since been diagnosed with Covid but has only had close contact with health workers. The masks provide a level of protection to both the wearer and the patient. Despite writing to the Health Minister as to why PPE had apparently not been provided (for everyone's safety) I have yet to receive a reply. It's good to have supplies now but the thinking has to be more ahead of the virus.

I have no reason to doubt the frontline staff.  Either the Ministers are peddling falsehoods deliberately or they themselves are happy to accept falsehoods conveyed to them by their civil servants. Either way, there is a clear need to rebuild trust.