Fisheries Stocks: Too Extended a Deadline
You know things are bad when they make the national press. The Times reported that:"French fishermen have been accused of “decimating” the Jersey coastline as they increase dredging before the post-Brexit amnesty ends at the end of this month. French boats spotted off the island’s coast this week are destroying the seabed with unsustainable 'industrial fishing methods', according to Don Thompson, president of the Jersey Fishermen’s Association."
We have been here before, albeit in different circumstances. When a deadline was given for hospitality before the Christmas lockdown, the pups were heaving with people to take advantage of the time they had. When a deadline was given for non-essential shops to close at 6 pm on Christmas Eve, the town was thronged with shoppers, regardless of the risks of Covid.
The general rule is this: give a group of people enough of a deadline, and they will make maximum advantage of it for themselves. And this is what we can now see played out with the fishing by French trawlers. If it is not stopped effectively and quickly enough, fish stocks will be so depleted they will take a decade to recover.
Much of this comes down to the way the External Relations Minister has tried to negotiate with the French, to smooth access to French ports for Jersey boats. There's an old saying "he who sups with the devil needs a long spoon", and it looks as if Senator Gorst has been using a tea-spoon in this instance.
Gorst's Last Stand
Senator Gorst aided by Senator Farnham have made a last minute bid to keep the Senators. Now an Island wide mandate is a good thing, and of course they have that in plenty in Guernsey, which somehow managed to make it work, something Deputy Russell Labey seems to have thought impossible. But this isn't that - it's retaining the Senators.
There's something to be said for it, if the Chief Minister is drawn from the ranks of Senators, it means everyone has the chance to vote on the past record of a Chief Minister. Of all those so far, only Senator Gorst has faced the ballot box - and survived.
We may move to troubled times if we end up with a Deputy in a district over which we have no sway, elected as Chief Minister, when on an Island wide mandate, they might fall. This means that asking the question of candidates on whom might be suitable for Chief Minister will become ever more important, but of course, expect a lot of fudging going on.
The only good point is that thanks to Deputy Trevor Pitman's proposition, we can at least see if someone said something, and changed their mind once elected. Barefaced lying is now exposed. But they may just be non-committal and say "wait and see".
Obviously party politics of some kind may make that easier - if we know beforehand who is likely to be the next Chief Minister from amongst the party. So the two new parties need to decide beforehand who will be their "leader" should the opportunity arise for a party to have a significant impact on the next Chief Minister.
Historically, parties in the UK took ages to grow, and broke apart and reformed on several occasions, and I think it would be extraordinary if Jersey's suddenly sprung into being over a short period of time. That may not even happen. Despite there being 4 active political parties in the Isle of Man, as at March 2020, all members of both branches of Tynwald were independents. When parties have existed, they have been in the minority, and government is more by consent that adversarial party politics.
Housing Market and the Limits to Growth
There's a need for new housing, the housing market is stagnating - just a few of the headlines hitting the news recently. But the need for new housing is driven in part by an ever increasing population. Back in the days when Paul Routier was a Senator in the States, I remember him telling me that we needed to increase the population to increase the support for an aging population. That's like a Ponzi scheme, applied to population, but it seems to resurface, even if implicitly.
Increases in population need to be tied to the demands on infrastructure. Our water supply is perilously close to failing and requiring rationing, because the population has grown so much, and the changing climate pattern means longer periods of drought. So far, we have been lucky, but don't expect that to last. The water company has already suggested that another valley may be needed as a reservoir, and if the population goes up, it certainly will be (2).
Dr Mark Boleat, an ardent devotee of expansion, saw no reason why Jersey should not increase as much as Hong Kong, blissfully (or deliberately) ignoring the fact that 70-80% of Hong Kong's water supply is from Guangdong, from a large river of that province. No such river or pipe supply would be possible from nearby France (3).
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