Sir Mark Boleat’s article on Jersey’s public finances: A Summary

 

I have not always agreed with Sir Mark Boleat but his article on Jersey’s public finances is a trenchant criticism of the status quo. Of particular note is the increase in public sector spending. I have done my own analysis of this, based on public statistics.

Over the past five years, the pay of Jersey’s public sector chief officers has risen by around 20–25%, with the top civil service post (Government CEO) moving from roughly £180k in 2019 to over £220k by 2024.

 
Over the past five years in Jersey, teachers’ pay has risen by roughly 15–20% (including recent settlements of 8% in 2024 plus RPI‑linked rises in 2025–26), while nurses’ pay has risen by around 12–15%, reflecting inflationary awards, union negotiations, and incremental adjustments

As cuts in public spending are usually channelled to the front line staff, so that the public protest, these figures are significant. It is notable that in a recent public hearing, neither the senior civil servants -Minister for Treasury and Resources Mr. A. Hacquoil, Group Director, Strategic Finance Mr. P. Wylie, Chief Officer, Cabinet Office - had any clue about what the Island Rate's origins and therefore raison d'etre was. And yet this is significant in any planned changes to it. So much for paying high salaries for quality! I am certain that Sir Mark would know the background (I covered it here: http://tonymusings.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-island-rate-explainer.html

Another area he does not cover is Fort Regent. The Fort Regeneration is financially possible but strategically precarious. Jersey can afford the first £43m phase, but doing so without addressing the wider structural deficit risks undermining fiscal stability. Advisors are effectively saying: if you want Fort Regent, you must cut elsewhere or raise revenues.

As it is undoubtedly the case that Sir Mark will be standing in the next election, and if Chief Minister, he probably would have the clout to do something about this, his critiques are worth considering. The last time he stood for election, it was at the head of a party which was virtually an election of the status quo - the Le Fondre Council of Ministers and was hamstrung by the political baggage they carried. This time looks to be very different!

Summary of Sir Mark Boleat’s Piece on Jersey’s Public Finances

Sir Mark Boleat’s article in the Jersey Evening Post offers a stark assessment of the Island’s fiscal position, drawing parallels with the UK but highlighting Jersey’s distinctive challenges. His central argument is that Jersey’s public expenditure has grown far faster than income, leading to borrowing, depletion of reserves, and a weakening balance sheet. He warns that the next States Assembly and Council of Ministers face a major task in restoring discipline and sustainability.

Comparing Jersey and the UK

Sir Mark begins by noting the UK’s approach to its own fiscal shortfall: preparing the public for tax rises and spending cuts through speeches and media briefings. The UK has the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to provide independent oversight and prevent governments from spinning the numbers. Jersey has a similar body, the Fiscal Policy Panel (FPP), composed of eminent economists, which recently issued a report highlighting the deterioration of the Island’s finances.

The Fiscal Policy Panel’s Findings

The FPP’s report is blunt. Between 2013 and 2019, Jersey’s income grew by 33% while day‑to‑day spending rose by 23%. But from 2022 to 2025, income grew by 22% while spending surged by 42%—nearly double the pace. Capital expenditure also jumped by £55 million (49%). As a result, the States’ financial assets as a share of GDP fell from 68% in 2019 to 44% in 2025, with further decline forecast. The panel stresses the need to rebuild reserves, limit spending growth, reduce borrowing, and maintain funds at prudent levels, given Jersey’s vulnerability: it lacks independent monetary policy and relies heavily on financial services for tax revenue.

Lack of Budgetary Discipline

Sir Mark argues that Jersey’s political culture lacks the budgetary discipline found in companies or other public bodies. The Budget is treated as flexible, with ministers and the Assembly adding expenditure rather than adhering to limits. For example, the 2024 net revenue expenditure was originally set at £1.17 billion but ended up £50 million higher. Health spending alone overshot its budget by £47 million. The FPP warned that unrealistic forecasts and in‑year overspending undermine fiscal credibility.

Drivers of Expenditure Growth

Several factors explain the surge in spending:

• Formula‑driven commitments: Budgets linked to economic measures, such as maintaining overseas aid at 0.3% of GVA or arts and culture at 1% of revenue expenditure, automatically push spending upward.
• “Nice to haves”: Political decisions to pursue ambitious but poorly implemented programmes, such as the Carbon Neutral Roadmap. This plan set a target of reducing emissions by 68% by 2030, requiring annual cuts of 6–7%. Yet in the first year, emissions fell by only 0.2%, making the target unattainable. Despite this, resources are spent on consultations and councils that add little new information.
• Public sector employment growth: Between 2019 and 2025, public sector jobs rose by 29% to nearly 10,000, increasing the share of the labour force from 12.8% to 15.2%. Staff costs are often treated as “free” when work is done internally, but Boleat insists they must be properly costed.

The Assembly’s Own Costs

Ironically, the States Assembly itself has seen sharp increases in expenditure. Its costs rose by 12.2% in 2023 and 21.8% in 2024, with another 10.4% forecast for 2025. Staff numbers grew from 44 in 2022 to 61 in 2024. While Boleat acknowledges staff work hard, he argues the Assembly’s structure drives its own rising costs, adding to the fiscal burden.

The Futility of Certain Consultations

He also criticises the government’s consultation on phasing out petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030. Since Jersey imports vehicles from the UK, it will inevitably follow UK policy. If the UK changes its deadline, Jersey will too. Thus, the consultation is largely pointless, consuming resources without altering outcomes. Meanwhile, Jersey is far off its own target of decarbonising 67% of vehicles by 2030, with only about 3% currently decarbonised.

The Political Outlook

Despite the FPP’s warnings, Sir Mark Boleat doubts the Assembly will act decisively. Past behaviour suggests members are more likely to increase spending and reduce taxes than to bring them into balance. Proposals may emerge to raise taxes on companies and high‑income individuals, but without careful analysis of whether such measures would actually increase revenue. The underlying problem is a political system that prioritises short‑term popularity over fiscal discipline.

Conclusion

Sir Mark Boleat concludes that Jersey’s finances are out of control. Expenditure growth, overspending in health and education, formula‑driven commitments, ineffective programmes, and rising public sector employment have eroded reserves and weakened the balance sheet. The Fiscal Policy Panel has provided clear warnings, but the Assembly has shown little inclination to heed them. The next government will face the daunting challenge of reining in spending, controlling public sector employment, and rebuilding reserves to safeguard Jersey’s fiscal stability.