The Master of Spin Returns

http://www.statesassembly.gov.je/documents/statements/41235-8801-2012009.htm

As I have said, we must not be complacent.  We have limited resources at our disposal and we must use them at the right time to deliver the greatest benefit for all islanders.  The Fiscal Policy Panel has set out, and I have accepted, clear guidelines on how we should consider use of the Stabilisation Fund.  Any consideration for withdrawals should pass three tests:

- Timely: the impact must be at the time of the economic downturn not before or after the event.
- Targeted:  the impact must be targeted on those individuals and businesses that will deliver the biggest impact.
 -Temporary:  policy should be temporary and must not have a permanent impact on government spending or tax revenue.

These are known as the three "T"s and I intend to apply these principles whenever the Assembly is asked to consider use of the stabilisation fund.

I agree with the Chief Minister that we must be disciplined and ensure that any proposals we bring forward focus on short-term investments aimed at helping local people and businesses to weather the storm; they must not be used to fund new initiatives that we would like to do in any event. 

-Philip Ozouf

I read both the long piece by Philip Ozouf in the JEP last night, and the statement released, and given partly verbatim on BBC Radio Jersey, and I have yet to see what I would really like to know - precisely how do the States intend to use the stabilisation fund. Lots of talk about "research we have commissioned and the plans we are developing", but no fine details. How any one could fill 2 pages of the JEP and not mention any actual practical measures is beyond belief, but Philip Ozouf is a "master of spin" locally, so when he says we are "developing a package of economic stimulus measures", don't expect any details.

The last time there was a downturn, in Reg Jeune's time as President of Policy and Resources, the main way in which money was given to the economy was by bringing forward building and repair projects - in other words, capital spending programmes on bricks and mortar, which stimulated the building trade wonderfully, produced a nice economic bubble, and had a knock on effect on house prices (which rose), and which was therefore good news for builders, developers, estate agents, lawyers in property transactions, etc etc.

Of course now we have also economic development, which can run advertising campaigns (lobster anyone?) or go on trips to the far east seeking new and exciting opportunities! Quite whether that will stimulate the local economy, I have no idea.

In the end, it will probably be the tried and tested methods of Reg Jeune, dusted down, and put back to work, which will please some sections of the economy (builders, developers, estate agents, lawyers in property transactions etc) no end.

Meantime, do not expect a straight answer on what practical measures might be put in place. Philip Ozouf has obviously been taking lessons from Yes, Minister:

Sir Humphrey: Well Minister, if you asked me for a straight answer then I shall say that, as far as we can see, looking at it by and large, taking one time with another, in terms of the average of departments, then in the final analysis it is probably true to say that, at the end of the day, in general terms, you would find, that, not to put too fine a point on it, there probably wasn't very much in it one way or the other, as far as one can see, at this stage.