In the interests of disseminating the details of the police
investigation – background, methodology, hypothesis and current status – I’m
placing this update from the States of Jersey Police on my blog posting today. I offer no hypotheses myself, because while there is a good deal of speculation, the possibilities are well set out in the police press release, and armchair speculation by myself would seem to add little to this.
All I might add is that I have discussed the matter with two honorary police involved in the searches, and there can be little doubt that these were conducted by all parties involved on thorough and professional and scientific guidelines, covering the same ground several times over many days and hours with different sets of eyes (in case something was missed), and looking into every garden, shed, tarpaulin etc and knocking on every door in the area of search on multiple occasions.
It can be seen from a report I wrote in December last year that both hypotheses and strategy used in the search follow the best practice on the matter. (
http://tonymusings.blogspot.com/2015/12/police-search-strategies-some-notes.html)
Police Update
Introduction
A lot of information has circulated regarding Adrian’s
disappearance and the investigation, both factual and false. A number of
recurring themes of questioning have also appeared via traditional and social
media forums and this overview is intended to publicly inform and consolidate
on the current status. The States of Jersey Police (SoJP) have been open and
transparent in the information they have provided to the public and recognise
the benefit in providing a comprehensive update.
Adrian’s clothing and items
On the night of his disappearance, Adrian was wearing a blue
River Island two piece suit, brown belt, white shirt, white t-shirt and black
slip-on shoes. He was believed to be in possession of his passport for proof of
age purposes, having recently lost his driving license and he would have had
two keys on a single ring with no fob – one a key to a Ford Fiesta, and the
other an ordinary Yale door key. He also wore a white and yellow gold signet
ring encrusted with a diamond.
Adrian’s movements
Adrian had spent the evening of Friday 4th December 2015 at
a combined electrical contractors’ Christmas function at the Merton Hotel. He
had consumed a quantity of alcohol and was intoxicated. A colleague arranged
for a taxi to collect and take him home, and Adrian left by taxi at about ten
minutes to midnight. It is believed that a misunderstanding over the address
however led to Adrian being dropped off at the junction of La Rue and La Ruette
D’Avranches (halfway between the Six Rues and Carrefour Selous junctions) with
Adrian indicating he lived very close nearby. He was actually over a kilometre
south of his home address.
He had his phone and wallet in his hand as he got out of the
taxi, and these were located the following morning on the road surface in La
Ruette just a few metres away from where he got out of the taxi. Although there
was no cash in the wallet it is believed that Adrian had spent the cash he had
earlier withdrawn from an ATM at the function, and used the remaining £3 to top
up the amount his colleague had given the taxi driver when he collected Adrian
at the hotel. Due to the positioning of the phone and the wallet, it is
believed that he may have sat down for a while on the road surface placing
these items down, but inadvertently leaving them behind when he moved off.
Adrian was dropped off at around five minutes past midnight.
The following is a chronology of movements of who we believe to be Adrian over
the next two or so hours. Times in some cases are approximate based upon
witnesses’ best recollection, and references to “Adrian” are based upon a
belief that this is indeed Adrian from references to description.
00:15 and 00:35 – a number of sightings of Adrian in the
vicinity of the Carrefour Selous junction with La Grande Route de St Laurent.
All are indicative of a state of intoxication ranging from unsteady walking to
lying in the road.
01:00 – a report of a male shouting and swearing in La Rue
de la Golarde, and very shortly after a male fitting Adrian’s description
walking east along this lane.
01:05 – Adrian walks into a house in La Rue de la Golarde,
occupants are still awake and in the lounge and question his presence before he
leaves and is then seen walking west along Rue de la Golarde. Adrian is polite
and appeared to have mud on his trousers.
01:40 – 01:45 – a householder in Le Passage hears a voice at
the front of his house and on checking sees Adrian sitting on his wall, there
was no-one else around. The householder enquired as to what he was doing and if
he was ok. Adrian apologises for disturbing him and leaves heading west along
Le Passage. At around this time (believed very shortly afterwards) a taxi
driver passes Adrian in the lane who is however now walking east towards the
junction with La Grande Route de St Laurent.
02:00 – Adrian is seen walking northwards on La Grande Route
de St Laurent near to the junction with La Fraide Rue.
02:00 – someone is heard shouting and swearing on the s-bend
near Bon Air Stables, and a person believed to be Adrian is seen walking
northwards.
02:09 – CCTV at the Thistlegrove site captures Adrian
walking north past the entrance, and then entering the yard at the front of
Regal, before disappearing down the side of Regal. He re-emerges a few minutes
later and is seen to walk south back past Thistlegrove at 02:17.
02:15 – 02:30 – a resident whose house backs onto the
vehicular track leading south from La Rue de la Golarde into the Cooke’s Roses
Farm complex hears their young child crying seemingly as they have been
disturbed from sleep by someone shouting. It is very possible Adrian was
walking back towards the very area he had started from, perhaps searching for his
phone and wallet.
Adrian’s belt
Adrian’s belt was located on the Saturday by a householder
in his garden in Le Passage, near to the boundary with Cooke’s Roses Farm. It
was loosely coiled. A friend of Adrian has said that Adrian occasionally
removed his belt and carried it in a coiled fashion. It is believed that at
some point Adrian had removed and was carrying his belt. It is possible that he
dropped or placed this when either leaving or entering the garden near to the
Cooke’s Roses Farm complex, possibly at around 02:30 if the last report of
hearing shouting related to Adrian passing southwards through the site.
Saturday 5th to Monday 7th December 2015
Contact was made by the finder of Adrian’s wallet and phone
with Adrian’s family on the Saturday morning, and the family started their own
enquiries before reporting Adrian missing in the early afternoon. An early
assessment of the circumstances prioritised Adrian as a high risk missing
person and enquiries initiated. Searching was carried out well into the night.
A multi-agency meeting involving representatives from a
number of agencies was held at 07:00 on the Sunday and searching continued
throughout the day and into the night, under the coordination of a trained
police search advisor. One of the challenges that searchers faced that weekend
and in the days and weeks that followed was the relative brevity of daylight
hours, although searching into the night continued when it was considered
conceivable that Adrian may still be alive.
On the Monday a decision to set up a major investigation
room was taken, and a command structure to support the multi-agency working
established. Use of the UK HOLMES major investigation computer system for
recording and tracking data and lines of enquiry was also established. Although
a missing person enquiry, the investigation room, team structure and processes
mirrored that used nationally for major enquiries, whether crime related or
not. The investigation started with regard to all possibilities, and has
remained as such.
This had been declared as a critical incident and a command
structure put in place to ensure strategic and tactical requirements were
recognised and responded to. A Gold / Silver / Bronze terminology is applied
nationally across the emergency services to major incidents, and Detective
Superintendent Stewart Gull assumed the role of the “Gold Commander” which he
still retains. Detective Chief Inspector Lee Turner who had been involved since
the Sunday morning was designated as the Senior Investigating Officer (SIO)
over-seeing Detective Inspector Steve Langford as the “Silver” for
investigation and Inspector Tim Barnes as the SoJP “Silver” for the
multi-agency searching.
The search
From Sunday 6th to Tuesday 22nd December representatives
from ten agencies were used daily in coordinated searching. They were spread
across a total of 28 designated zones covering about 12 square kilometres in
total, as seen on the map below. There were typically between 30 and 60
searchers deployed on any one day, the management and coordination of which
required significant effort and monitoring. The search zones were designated
according to the information picture that was developing as the enquiry progressed,
and centred on those areas that featured in the reported sightings of Adrian as
well as the potential directions he may have travelled in.
1 km radius (2 km diameter) circular zones of higher
priority were established, centring on Adrian’s last known location (taxi drop
off / belt recovery area) and the furthest believed movement indicated
(Thistlegrove / Bon Air stables area). Such zones were also based on input from
national search advice, and a National Search Advisor from the College of
Policing worked in the island for a few days with search management in
December.
The support of the public was and has been significant and
careful ongoing consideration was given from the outset on Sunday 6th December
and throughout the active search phases to using members of the public in
support of coordinated searching, working alongside agency personnel. During
this critical phase of the searching, it was assessed that there were
sufficient resources for the task in hand. To involve the public in this
coordinated way would have placed an unnecessary burden and additional risk on
the overall coordinated search. This decision was strongly endorsed by a
National Search Advisor from the College of Policing in the early stages.
There are a number of water sites in the general area
ranging from garden ponds to the Handois and Dannemarche reservoirs. A number
of these aspects could be and were covered by trained Fire and Rescue officers
and divers from TTS. Other more challenging aspects were reviewed and where
applicable covered by sonar specialists from Humberside Police.
Specialist victim recovery dogs were also utilised over two
phases in December and January in areas assessed to require particular
attention, or which presented significant challenges to other search methods.
These dogs are trained to find deceased people, unlike the more general purpose
police dogs which are used by SoJP who are trained to locate the living. As
with any search assets, although highly trained these dogs are not infallible
and require focus – this is directed and monitored by trained handlers, and
will on occasion be restricted by environmental conditions such as wind
direction.
A drone used by trained Fire and Rescue personnel was also
deployed and viewing of footage monitored and examined over a number of days in
support of other methods. This covered a total of about 12 hours flying time
and covering a total distance of some 80,000 metres.
With regard to the possibility that Adrian may have been
involved in a road traffic collision (RTC), additional and focused search
attention was also paid to road surfaces and boundaries (extending up to 10
metres either side of the road surface) inside and out of the 1 km higher
priority zones, not only for Adrian but for any debris or item that may have
been discarded or flung upon any impact (which is common). Unsurprisingly,
debris from what are believed to be minor historic collisions was located, but
nothing of apparent relevance to Adrian’s disappearance.
Several thousand personnel hours in total were used in
searching the designated areas, both before and after Christmas. There was and
remains no information on which to base extending such parameters other than
simply extending outwards in all directions which would not only require an
exponentially growing resourcing requirement, but would also depend upon the
consent of private property owners in circumstances where there would be little
or no rationale to request or expect this. In short, in the absence of any more
specific information, further searching is simply considered unviable.
Further searching for example in the central Carrefour
Selous area was conducted in January based on a hypothesis arising from the
last indication of Adrian’s presence in the Cooke’s Roses Farm area at 02:15 –
02:30.
This position has been supplemented by repeated requests for
land and property owners to check their own areas outside of these zones, to
use employees to assist on commercial and agricultural sites and to call the
police for assistance if for example; the infirm or restricted are unable to
thoroughly check property and outbuildings.
Difficult decisions such as those involving the parameters
of extended searches have to be made, but as with all aspects of major
investigations the practical implications are such that parameters have to be
applied based on rationale, and the Senior Investigating Officer making such
decisions rightly remains accountable for these.
The northern boundary areas around St John’s Village were
based on earlier indications of Adrian’s direction of travel from the taxi drop
off and the direction of his home address. The absence of any sightings past
these areas limited the extent of these zones; however, the north coast has
featured in search activity, including the Channel Islands Air Search plane,
and also by the States of Jersey Fire & Rescue Service and other assets
based on reports of possible relevance. Other areas have also received search
attention in response to other possibly related pieces of information that were
received.
An internal review of all search documentation is being
carried out in order to establish the necessity for any revisits.
Hypotheses and lines of enquiry
A number of hypotheses were established by the SIO in the
early phase of the investigation, falling within the three main nationally
recognised categories of missing people:
- Lost person – a person who is temporarily disorientated and
would wish to be found;
- Voluntary missing person – a person who has control over
their own action but has decided on a particular course of action eg wishes to
leave home or self-harm;
- Missing person under the influence of a third party –
relating to someone who has gone missing against their will eg abduction or
murder victim.
The hypotheses established, form the basis of documented
investigative strategies, which themselves drive principle lines of enquiry.
The investigation has remained open-minded to all possibilities including
criminal and third party involvement, but to date it remains that there is no
credible information indicative of a crime. Such is Adrian’s apparent
disorientation, intoxication and vulnerability that night, some form of
misadventure is still considered the most probable eventuality, but other
possibilities have never been ruled out.
Before clarification was obtained as to why Adrian might
have taken off his belt, an explanation was considered that he might have been
experiencing the onset of hypothermia. As bizarre as it might appear,
undressing in some cases of hypothermia can occur although no further items of
Adrian’s clothing have yet been discovered.
Another reaction can be a form of
hibernation-like activity in terms of deliberate and tight self-concealment,
and this has not been ruled out. Although it was a relatively mild and dry
night, Adrian was not dressed to remain outside overnight, and this combined
with intoxication leading to increased cooling of skin surfaces could possibly
have created physiological hypothermic reactions.
This is only a possibility
however and cannot be determined with any certainty such are the variables
involved, but consultation with a Home Office pathologist has taken place in
this regard and cannot be entirely ruled out. Contrary to what might be
thought, it does not need to be bitterly cold for hypothermia to occur.
The structure of the investigation is such that any turn of
events can be accommodated and catered for. Although this is a missing person
investigation open to all possibilities, a murder investigation would follow a
similar structure but its strategic direction would be influenced by those
aspects indicative of a murder having taken place, eg discovery of a body in
such circumstances or credible information that this was indeed the case. It is
not a matter of switching from a missing person enquiry to a murder
investigation simply because a period of time has elapsed without discovery.
Whether a missing person or a murder investigation, both
seek to identify sources of intelligence, information and evidence in order to
establish what has happened. This is why reference has been made to terminology
such as “witness strategy” and “house to house enquiries” which would be
expected in murder investigations, but have also been used in this
investigation in order to identify and capitalise on information opportunities.
As an example, witness strategy included written appeals in foreign languages
placed in public areas and delivered to farms in the central parishes. A house
to house zone was designated covering the routes Adrian is known to have taken,
and may have proceeded to take, covering over 300 properties and over 500
residents, all of whom identified and spoken with.
A range of other lines of enquiry cover issues such as
forensics, family liaison, passive data opportunities including CCTV from 18
sites, vehicle damage, and importantly the media.
Over 1,000 people have been spoken with during the
investigation, over 250 witness statements recorded and over 560 investigative
actions generated over and above the search activity described.
At the end of January a National Missing Persons Advisor and
a National Senior Investigating Officer Advisor from the National Crime Agency
visited and undertook a review of the structure, hypotheses and basis for the
lines of enquiry being generated. As with any form of review in any field, a
number of recommendations were made, gratefully received and duly considered
and acted upon to varying degrees with regard to the local context and ongoing
developments in the information picture. Support and further recommendations
were also provided following this, by an NCA National Search Advisor in
addition to those given before Christmas by the College of Policing.
The media
There have been over 30 media releases since the
investigation began and a number of interviews with DCI Turner and D/Supt Gull.
The outreach to an immensely supportive community wanting to help the police
and Adrian’s family has been significant. There have for example been 14,122
YouTube hits on the Thistlegrove CCTV images.
A number of appeals for information have been made,
including for a number of people who might have seen Adrian or something of
possible relevance to come forward. Despite repeated appeals, a number of
persons remain outstanding – these are people who very possibly might simply
have seen or heard something of interest, however insignificant or irrelevant
this might appear to them to be.
- The occupants of a silver car (possibly a VW or Citroen
Saxo) parked outside David Hicks at about 23:00;
- Two persons with a motorcycle at the junction of Le Neuf
Chemin and St Lawrence main road (just north of the entrance to St John’s
Manor) at about midnight;
- A male with a dark pullover hitchhiking up Mont Felard at
about half past midnight;
- A male in a mustard coloured suit walking north past Regal
at about 01:15-01:30;
- A taxi moving south past Thistlegrove at 02:33;
- A male with white hair hitchhiking south at about 03:00 in
the Three Oaks area;
- Two males hitchhiking north at about 03:00 in the area of
Steven Cohu antiques
- In addition to this, despite a number of requests and other
enquiries, it cannot be confirmed that all persons either in, passing into or
out of the area at the relevant time have been identified. The CCTV at
Thistlegrove identifies a number of vehicles passing in both directions
throughout the night but makes and models are not distinguishable – we believe
most have been identified but not all.
Current Position
The investigation will not be concluded until Adrian is
found and the circumstances of his disappearance established as far as is
possible. Maintaining a resourced investigation room and team however is only
appropriate whilst there are feasible lines of enquiry to investigate, and
these are not infinite. Adrian remains missing and SoJP will continue to
consider any potential for fresh investigative leads and monitor any new
intelligence or information, and remain ready and willing to resource and
respond appropriately to any such developments.
This has been a unique and unprecedented missing person
enquiry for Jersey. Whilst the States of Jersey Police will continue to keep an
open mind as to any eventuality in respect of Adrian’s disappearance as set out
as above, as difficult as it may be to comprehend on a small island,
indications are that Adrian simply remains missing by misadventure. This has
been an open and transparent investigation, and for as long as Adrian remains
missing the Police remain committed to finding him.