Thursday, 17 May 2018

Election Results 2018

Below are my guesses together with the actual results.

Please note that there are sometimes more "front runners" than seats. This was deliberate. I was choosing those who I think stood a good chance of being elected, but not all of them can be! I hedged my bets!

Guesses were made by studying candidates manifesto, any other manifesto or website, the JEP QandA, any other QandA, and listening to "Election Call" on BBC Radio Jersey. These were NOT endorsements of any candidates, just guesses as to who will get in. Names are also in alphabetical order by surname.

Accuracy of Guesses:
As can be seen, with regard to the Deputies, I have managed a fairly high degree of accuracy except for St Helier District 3 and 4, where I was only half right. I managed to get the Senators right, and two of the runners up. I think overall I did very well as a political pundit!

There seems to have been something of a backlash against Reform. They only succeeded big time in St Helier No 2, while St Brelade No 2 saw the status quo, although Graham Truscott's increased majority may be an anti-Reform backlash too. They had no success in St Lawrence or St Saviour.

Within St Helier, putting Reform against centre-left candidates, as in St Helier No 1, seems to have been a strategy that backfired. I would have thought they would need 8 to 10 to make a "breakthrough" and this has not happened. Meanwhile, Sam Mezec scrapped into last place as Senator.

First-Past-The-Post also didn't help. Where there were multiple candidates for a limited number of seats, the split vote effect world have worked against them. That said, even under Single Transferable Vote, they would still have lost in a number of districts, including St Saviour No 3.

Reform now have 5 seats, an improvement, but not a significant one. This is not yet the time for Party politics.

Election Jokes
Best line on radio: "Sarah Ferguson is struggling in the election, perhaps she needs a lifeboat to help her out"
Went to vote. A lady was at the desk handing out election slips. I said "I'll take two raffle tickets please"

The Newbies
In the Senators, Newbies Moz Scott and Anthony Lewis didn't get in but did creditably well - I had them as Close Runners-Up, while Simon Bree bombed out - I think making the announcement about going for Chief Minister probably didn't help his campaign one bit.

Gerard Baudains was a runner up, but not a close one. I thought Gino would be last, but as it turned out Stevie Ocean came bottom.

In the Deputies, Tony Pike and Inna Gardiner both did creditably well.

Biggest Surprise
Simon Bree doing so badly. Saying he would go for Chief Minister probably lost votes. The other surprise was on BBC Radio, where commenting on election, Jackie Hilton made a surprise announcement. 4 years she will be back... to stand as Constable against Simon Crowcroft!!


123 votes seperated Moz Scott from Sam Mezec, far less than the last recount with Sarah Ferguson and Philip Ozouf. However, that one revealed no result more than 20 votes off its original (most far less), and even allowing for errors in Moz's favour both ways, that would give 40, or if it was a bad night for counting, 50 votes. I don't think a recount is worth while.
Breaking News: Moz Scott says she will not call for a recount.

Senators (8 seats)
Potential candidates who will go for Chief Minister if elected shown by *

Front Runners (9)
As I expected, 8 of those I listed were elected Senators.
Simon Brée : Current Deputy of St Clement * - Not Elected 10529
Lyndon Farnham : Current Senator * - ELECTED 12,417 - 8.13%
Sarah Ferguson : Current Senator - ELECTED 11,297 - 7.40%
Ian Gorst : Current Senator * - ELECTED 12,068 - 7.90%
John Le Fondré : Current Deputy of St Lawrence * - ELECTED 14,204 - 9.30%
Sam Mézec : Current Deputy of St Helier No 2 (Reform Jersey) * - ELECTED 11,007 - 7.21%
Kristina Moore : Current Deputy of St Peter * - ELECTED 15,292 - 10.02%
Steven Pallett : Current Connétable of St Brelade - ELECTED 12,114 - 7.93%
Tracey Vallois : Current Deputy of St John - ELECTED 15,518 - 10.16%

Close Runners-Up
Gerard Baudains : Previous States Member 6341
Anthony Lewis : New Candidate10709
Moz Scott : New Candidate 10884

The Last Post
Frank Luce : New Candidate 2279
Philip Maguire : Previous Candidate 976
Stevie Ocean : Previous Candidate 953
Gordon Troy : New Candidate 4695

The Twilight Zone
Gino Risoli : Previous Candidate 1401

St Brelade No 2 (2 seats) 
Front Runners (2)
As I expected, the existing Deputies held on, but Tony Pike did creditably well
Montfort Tadier : Current Deputy of St Brelade No 2 (Reform Jersey) – ELECTED 1193
Graham Truscott : Current Deputy of St Brelade No 2 – ELECTED 1506

Tony Pike : New Candidate 1146
Garel Tucker : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 454

St Clement (2 seats) 
Front Runners (2)
As I expected
Lindsay Ash : New Candidate – ELECTED 1286
Susie Pinel : Current Deputy of St Clement – ELECTED 1499

Samantha Morrison : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 596
Cloe Freeman : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 791
Philip Renouf : New Candidate 578

St Helier No 1 (3 seats) 
Front Runners (3)
As I expected
Russell Labey : Current Deputy of St Helier No 1 – ELECTED 833
Judy Martin : Current Deputy of St Helier No 1 – ELECTED 871
Scott Wickenden : Current Deputy of St Helier No 1 – ELECTED 682

The ridiculous "Digger" banner probably lost Mr Lagadu votes. Reform's candidates here were very weak.
Jason Lagadu : New Candidate 274
Kelly Langdon : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 441
Yann Mash : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 314
John McNichol : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 435

The Last Post
Not last, I got this one wrong, but still right that he was not re-elected.
Nick Le Cornu : Previous States Member 364

St Helier No 2 (3 seats) 
Front Runners (4)
As I expected - Linda Dodds 11th hour poster campaign was too late in the day, but this is also a Portugese heartland, and Carina Alves probably helped boost all Reform's votes.
Carina Alves : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) – ELECTED 605
Linda Dodds : New Candidate 466
Geoff Southern : Current Deputy of St Helier No 2 (Reform Jersey) –ELECTED 628
Rob Ward : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) - -ELECTED 612

Geraint Jennings : Previous Candidate 428
Bernard Manning : Previous Candidate 456

End of the Line
As I expected I was right here too
Barry Shelton : Previous Candidate 404

St Helier No 3 and 4 (4 seats)
Front Runners: (4)
Well I was very wrong here. A good showing from Inna Gardiner though.
Inna Gardiner : New Candidate 909
Mike Higgins : Current Deputy of St Helier No 3 and 4 – ELECTED 1190
Mary Le Hegarat : New Candidate – ELECTED 1173
Julian Rogers : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 631

Stephen Ahier : New Candidate – ELECTED 1020
Mary Ayling-Philip : Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey) 706
Jacqui Carrel : New Candidate 861
Richard Rondel : Current Deputy of St Helier No 3 and 4 – ELECTED 1404
Anne Southern : Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey) 790

St John (1 seat) 
Front Runner (1):
As I expected 
Trevor Pointon : New Candidate – ELECTED 609

Nigel Philpott : New Candidate 537

St Lawrence (2 seats) 
Front Runners (2):
As I expected, but thought Guida would top poll
Gregory Guida : New Candidate (probably top poll) – ELECTED 1194
Kirsten Morel : New Candidate – ELECTED 1499

Sarah Westwater : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 299

St Mary (1 seat) 
Front Runner (1):
As I expected 
Robert Johnson : Current Deputy of St Mary – ELECTED 495

Mark Baker : New Candidate 309

St Ouen (1 seat) 
Front Runner (1):
As I expected 
Richard Renouf : Current Deputy of St Ouen – ELECTED 1338

Falling off the Cliff
Cliff Le Clercq : Previous Candidate 218

St Peter (1 seat) 
Front Runner (1):
As I expected 
Rowland Huelin : New Candidate -ELECTED 991

Sean Creavy : New Candidate 553

St Saviour No 1 (2 seats) Front Runners (2):
As I expected 
Jeremy Maçon : Current Deputy of St Saviour No 1 – ELECTED 793
Kevin Pamplin : New Candidate – ELECTED 509

Isabella Lewis : Previous Candidate 395
Fiona O’Sullivan : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 339

St Saviour No 2 (2 seats) Front Runners (2):
As I expected 
Louise Doublet : Current Deputy of St Saviour No 2 – ELECTED 874
Kevin Lewis : Current Deputy of St Saviour No 2 – ELECTED 858

Jaime Boylan : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 334

St Saviour No 3 (1 seat) Front Runners (4 and too difficult to choose, all good!)
Too hard to call, but Jess was well ahead of others. Another very bad result for Reform.
Tom Coles : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 100
Andrew Le Quesne : New Candidate 161
Mary O’Keefe-Burgher : Previous Candidate 266
Jess Perchard : New Candidate – ELECTED 528

Trinity (1 seat) 
Front Runner (1):
As I expected 
Hugh Raymond : Previous Candidate 966

Last Post:
David Richardson : Previous Candidate 210

St Mary 
Anyone’s Guess (1):
Actually this was a surprise
Juliette Gallichan : Current Connétable of St Mary 398
John Le Bailly : Previous States Member – ELECTED 423

Reform Candidates
Sam Mezec - 11,007 - 7.21%
Tadier, Monty – 1,193 (elected)
Alves, Carina – 605 (elected)
Southern, Geoff – 628 (elected)
Ward, Robert – 612 (elected)

Senators in Graphics
(courtesy of the BBC)

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