Making the Election Count

Different Ways of Counting

There has been a lot of banging on about "no change", e.g. the CTV comments: "With only 2 sitting members losing their seats (Juliette Gallichan and Simon Bree), the mood for change was rather more muted than we thought."

There actually was a lot of change with new candidates who hadn't been in the States in St Martin, St John, St Peter, St Mary, St Clement, St Helier, St Lawrence, St Saviour. Lots of contested elections, and quite a lot of new faces.

So there was a lot of change, but because it didn't involve so many sitting members losing seats - because they tried for Senators and left vacancies, or retired from the States, it wasn't so noticeable.

Vote Team??

How well did the strategy of “Vote Team” work for Reform? On the basis of the statistics, not very well at all.

St Brelade No 2

Montfort Tadier: Current Deputy of St Brelade No 2 (Reform Jersey) – ELECTED 1193

Garel Tucker: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 454

Admittedly she was not well at the start for quite a few weeks, but the same pattern emerges elsewhere:

St Clement

Samantha Morrison: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 596

Cloe Freeman: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 791

No sign of “Vote Team”. Nearly 200 votes adrift.

St Helier No 1

Kelly Langdon: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 441

Yann Mash: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 314

John McNichol: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 435

A degree of convergence between Langdon and McNichol, but Mash is over 100 votes out on a limb.

St Helier 3/4

Julian Rogers: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 631

Mary Ayling-Philip: Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey) 706

Anne Southern: Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey) 790

Closer but Rogers is 70 behind Ayling-Philip who is 80 behind Southern. No real “Vote Team”

Carina Alves: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) – ELECTED 605

Geoff Southern : Current Deputy of St Helier No 2 (Reform Jersey) –ELECTED 628

Rob Ward : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) - -ELECTED 612

Virtually the only example of “Vote Team” working. Very close votes.

Exit Polls - Which One Counted?

The Bailiwick Express Exit Poll suggested that the top two Senators tonight will be Deputies Tracey Vallois and Kristina Moore, but said that "it looks like being too tight to call on who will finish in first place". Below that they placed John Le Fondre and Ian Gorst - he got in but in a lower place. 

After that came Sam Mézec and they got that completely wrong. Then they say: "But the final three places are simply too close to call. In the mix are Senators Lyndon Farnham and Sarah Ferguson, Deputy Simon Brée, Constable Steve Pallett, along with newcomers Anthony Lewis and Moz Scott." .

In the end, one did fall, Simon Brée, but while good at the top end, the errors increased as they went down the line, and it became rather like the celebrated Morcambe and Wise sketch with Andre Previn - all the right candidates but not necessarily in the right order!

Meanwhile, the JEP have pulled the page with their exit poll, and studying it reveals why.

"REFORM Jersey chairman Deputy Sam Mézec is the favourite to top the poll in tonight’s Senatorial election, according to the results of a JEP exit poll."

"He is followed by five candidates in a tight group separated by a small number of votes: Deputy Tracey Vallois, Deputy John Le Fondré, Deputy Kristina Moore, Senator Sarah Ferguson and Constable Steve Pallet. And it may turn out to be a nail-biting night for Chief Minister Ian Gorst who, according to the poll, will finish eighth, a small number of votes behind Senator Lyndon Farnham."

"But just outside the top eight, in another small group with just a few votes between them, are three other candidates: Moz Scott, Deputy Simon Brée and Anthony Lewis."

They put a caveat that: "There is very little separating the top six, and those occupying places seven and eight are not too far behind. And with every exit poll having a margin for error, the exact placing of the top eight is too close to call."

But all told, their exit poll was so wide of the mark with Sam Mézec that it must have been a huge embarrassment for the JEP, especially as their media rivals were so much closer - so no wonder they removed it as soon as possible.

Poster Update - Outstanding Numbers Around

A number of posters are still around. However...

I hear that Fiona O’Sullivan has been unwell, and she tweeted to say that has caused a delay in taking down her posters. I appreciate people are keen to see all the posters down, but we do need to show some understanding of the candidates individual circumstances.

From yesterday morning-there's a Moz Scott one and Ant Lewis poster at Les Quennevais by Waitrose and also a Bree one further down the road. Mezec, Tadier and Tucker one at Corbiere. Also Gorst had one up at Samares Manor yesterday, not sure if it's still there though today.

Sam Mezec still on lampost second entrance Clos de Roncier, coming from Grouville End.

Mike Dun rather amusingly commented:

“These posters will be worth more than Jersey Railway Station nameboards in 50 years time. Grab them now while you can and help pay for your long term care when elections are entirely electronic and the candidates are just holograms.”