Can we eliminate Covid-19 from our shores?

The Precautionary Principle

“Earlier on today apparently a woman rang the BBC and said she had heard a hurricane was on the way.” So began a weather bulletin 30 years ago. “Well I can assure people watching,” smirked weather forecaster Michael Fish, “don’t worry, there isn’t.”

Even since then when there have been high winds, the Met office has preferred to err on the side of caution, and predict the more extreme of the range. After all, I think most people would like to be prepared for more extreme weather, and are glad when things don’t turn out quite as bad as expected.

The JEP reported:

“Covid-19: Infections appear to be slowing – but lockdown extended to prevent surge in cases”

And Kevin Keen tweeted on that:

Starting to lose confidence in management of this crisis & I don’t say that lightly. First model far too pessimistic, & now not sure about latest version. A sensibly phased exit plan cannot come soon enough for so many reasons, please @GovJersey & @John_Le_Fondre  let’s have it.

The first model does seem to have been be too pessimistic, as Kevin says, but I do have sympathy with the government and its medical advisors. We have only to look to the UK to see what could have happened over here, and think to that weather report. Suppose we dismissed the worst, until it was upon us, and had to pick up the pieces afterwards. But now we can start to revise the model and look towards coming out of lockdown.

Elimination and Border Controls

Now Senator Le Fondré said that when Jersey relaunching its air and sea routes will largely depend on the UK government’s wishes, as the island is part of the Common Travel Area. However, Deputy Renouf expressed concerns on health grounds, describing opening up the flow of travel in and out of the island as “our greatest risk”.

Here I do actually agree with Richard Renouf. New Zealand shows how a swift and successful lockdown with strong border controls can work. They are very near to eliminating the virus altogether, and like them, we need to use that control. 

We can get there too because like New Zealand, we do not have large, porous land borders, and we have the advantage of a small number of active cases. 

Michael Baker, a professor who advises their government says “an ability to control entry points” is a key feature of the elimination strategy. And Time Magazine comments:

Borders might have to remain closed for an extended period to keep the virus out, although in recent days there has been some discussion around opening up to Australia once both countries have the virus under control. The economist Lees says to expect borders to remain largely closed for 12 to 18 months. He says that the economy will be radically different: “The economy can survive without international tourism, but not as we know it.”

But the price for that is buying time for a vaccine to be developed, and once the virus is eliminated internally, the opportunity exists for many businesses to reopen. The main area of concern is of course tourism, but extreme care would need to be taken and the situation monitored abroad before changes could be made there.

In the meantime, islanders who cannot get away for holidays may instead try enjoying nights spent at local hotels and guest houses, as a welcome break away, perhaps at the other end of the Island from where they live. When flights can commence, we need initially, adequate testing so that tourists are effectively self-isolated for 24 hours until we have the test results.

Eliminating coronavirus locally would be a game changer, and great care must be taken against any possible points of entry back into the Island because that might mean another lockdown. 

Social distancing will probably have to continue in one form for a while, but we can perhaps get to the point where some social distancing can be dispensed with – barbers, hairdressers, chiropractors, dentists etc, and children may need to keep with their family, but they can go on the beach to play, and others to sunbathe.

Wouldn't that be nice?

References:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/27/asia/new-zealand-elimination-coronavirus-jacinda-ardern-intl/index.html

Immunity and the Virus: Cause for Concern

Can you catch the Coronavirus Twice? As Jersey considers how to lift the lockdown, this is a question of critical importance.

Despite the comments by the World Health Organisation that it is uncertain, the science of immunity is pretty solid,  so if you’ve had the virus it is extremely unlikely you can catch it again. While there’s a lot of uncertainly about coronavirus, how the body's immune responses work is almost 100% certain. 

But what may not be so certain is whether there are several strains of Coronavirus out in the wild, so different that immunity from one may not mean immunity from another.

Back in January 2020, Insider Magazine reported on influenza – coronavirus was then a distant cloud on the horizon:

A double-barreled flu season occurs when two flu outbreaks overlap one another, a pattern which is very unusual, according to flu experts.

Last year, for example, we saw A/H1N1 infections peak early, followed by another wave of A/H3N2 infections. Though the predominant strains are different this year, we’re seeing the same pattern play out: Activity took off with B/Victoria and now that second wave of A/H1N1 is coming for us, according to Schaffner. “Around the country, my colleagues and I are seeing H1N1 come up strong, and it’s now about 50-50 [with B/Victoria],” Schaffner told Healthline. The most worrisome part of a double-barreled flu season is that you can get sick twice.

Just because you caught a B-strain flu doesn’t mean that you’re immune from the A strains. “There will be the rare person who gets two flu infections in the same season — one with B and one with H1N1,” Schaffner said. Though there will be some protection within each strain — in that contracting an A strain will protect you against other A strains, and B strains will protect against other B’s — there’s not much cross protection.

Now the South China Morning Post – April 2020 – has this to note on Coronavirus. Firstly, there are at least 30 variants, but these come down to three main strands:

Geneticists from Britain and Germany have mapped the evolutionary path of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 and determined there are currently three versions of it spreading around the world

Type A was also found in Americans who had lived in Wuhan, and in other patients diagnosed in the United States and Australia. 

The most common variant found in Wuhan was type B, the study said, though this appeared not to have travelled much beyond East Asia before mutating, which the researchers said was probably due to some form of resistance to it outside that region. 

Finally, type C was the variant found most often in Europe based on cases in France, Italy, Sweden and England. It had not been detected in any patients in mainland China, though had been found in samples from Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea, the study said. 

The researchers concluded that variant A was the root of the outbreak as it was most closely related to the virus found in bats and pangolins. Type B was derived from A, separated by two mutations, while type C was the “daughter” of variant B.

Lu Jiahai, an epidemiologist at Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong, said the study had provided a preliminary analysis of genomics and molecular variation. “The virus mutates during spreading and has become more adapted to transmission among humans in different populations from different countries,” he said. 

But as the variants were related to each other, tracking mutations within different groups could help to determine the origin of the virus, he said. “This research indicates that the spread of the virus is increasingly adapted to different populations and therefore the pandemic needs to be taken seriously,” Lu said. “People need to pay more attention to prevention and control … the virus may coexist with humans for a long time.”

So no – you can’t easily catch the same variant twice, but you could catch an alternative variant! And it is still mutating.

That is a cause for concern.

References
https://www.insider.com/can-you-get-the-flu-more-than-once
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3079491/deadly-coronavirus-comes-three-variants-researchers-find
https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-variants-of-which-19-are-new-and-previously-undetected-1.1587559316992

In Absentia

In these sad days of social distancing, funerals are strange, distanced affairs, and I was thinking about how it must be not to see a friend who is ill but dying, and so I cast my mind back to my friend Terry Hampton, once Vicar of St Aubin, and then Rector of Grouville. After he left Grouville, he suffered a major cardiac event, more than just a heart attack, he was taken by plane to England, and was thereafter at the Cheshire Home. 

Of course he was vulnerable to infection, and it always seemed to me that whenever I had time to go and visit, I always had a cough or cold, some infection mild to me, but which could have been fatal to him. Thinking of that and Covid-19 of course rings all sorts of bells. I did manage to get there on occasion, but he was invariable asleep and couldn't be woken. 

It is to his memory, and also to my god-daughter, his daughter, that I dedicate this poem. I remember so many happy times with him and his family, and he was always so full of life, so encouraging and engaged with everyone. I think most people who knew him will agree he was one of those people for whom the expression... after he came along, they broke the mold.. fitted the bill perfectly. 

In Absentia

How I miss you, my dear friend,
And how lonely was your end;
I could not visit, lest I made you ill,
And you caught from me a fatal chill;
Mourning in absentia, such a cost,
Time gone, and time forever lost;
So many things to say, still to talk:
Then you set off on a lonely walk,
And came a parting of the ways,
But I still recall those many days,
And will join you, when I am able,
To a feast of freedom at the Table

How I miss you, my dear friend,
And how lonely was your end;
I still remember how we met:
You and your family, strangers yet,
But friendship forged, to respond,
In one evening, a special bond,
That still remains beyond the grave;
I remember walking down the nave,
To share in the one cup and bread;
Of such a tapestry, thread by thread,
Are lives bound together into one:
Hearing the calling of the Son

How I miss you, my dear friend,
And how lonely was your end;
Evenings of music, song and prayer,
Such precious memories, to share,
Time alive: never lost, all belong:
Your wife on the piano, sacred song,
You with cello, we singing praise,
Such sweetness were the days;
And in the pulpit, inspiring word,
As if Barnabas himself were heard,
Son of encouragement, truly with you:
The Word making all things new

Les Landes School : The Survivor

The School in 1904

This is a transcript of part of a booklet called “More Life in St Ouen” which was published in January 1988. It seems to be a local Church Magazine, printed and produced by St Ouen’s Church, and provides an interesting snapshot of how the Church was at that time, under the leadership of the Reverend Ray Speck, who was Rector of St Ouen, hence the photo of Spring Harvest at the end of this article about Les Landes School, the only primary school remaining in the Parish. The head teacher Mrs Ann Renouf was appointed in 1986, two years before penning this piece.

Les Landes School : The Survivor
by Ann Renouf

Les Landes School opened in 1904 having been built to cater for the children of the north-west of the parish. One hundred pupils had joined within the first few months of the opening.

Quite why the school should be today's sole survivor of the four schools which existed at that time is not clear but when l look at an early photograph of the school and its pupils on my office wall, it is satisfying to think of the continuity between then and now. This sense of continuity is strengthened by parents, grandparents and great-grandparents who are themselves former pupils.

Our task in educating our one hundred and twenty pupils (who are aged between four and eleven) remains the same although our teaching methods have certainly changed! There is a modern emphasis on teaching to smaller groups and the range of learning and teaching is considerably more varied than in the past. Modern technology also has its place; our three computer systems allow access for all children for use in a number of ways such as creation of simple databases and in wordprocessing.

Naturally not all of the time is spent in the classroom; a typical day will also have children on the playing field for football, netball and athletics or in the hall for PE., gymnastics and movement. In many subjects we also seek to provide first hand experience. younger children are taken out to be taught road safety and older ones are taken to the local stores in order to learn about money and as a basis for classroom "shops" and maths learning. 

Children at Spring Harvest,  1988

All classes make outside visits during the school year and these visits are linked closely with classwork. Our aims are to provide a firm base of understanding for future learning, to create a real sense of belonging to the community and to instil a sense of pride in the beautiful surroundings of the parish.

Most children progress to Les Quennevais School for their secondary education; some go to the Colleges or to other private schools.

The old joke about going to town once a year may no longer apply to the well travelled and, in many ways, sophisticated young St. Ouennais of today, but this is all the more reason for the school to maintain the strong sense of community that exists within the parish.

More or Less: Plotting Mortality

A comment on COVID-19 and individual and population risk from Prof David Spiegelhalter, based on an interview he gave on BBC Radio 4’s More or Less programme gives the surprising statistic that mortality risk follows the same trajectory for Covid-19 as normal mortality risk, but packed into a shorter time frame.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, said:

“On average, if you contract COVID19 you have roughly the same risk of dying over the next few weeks as you normally have of dying over the next year. People who die almost always have accompanying health problems and the risk for healthy people is much lower. "

“So if you get the virus in the next couple of weeks you’re essentially going to cram in a year’s worth of background risk. On an individual level your risk might not be that big, but as a society it is significant – to have a whole year’s worth of death over just a few weeks or months would be huge. Just as having a month’s worth of rain in a day can cause huge floods. "

“The Imperial College London modelling suggests that if the virus was allowed to let rip and we did nothing to reduce its impact, around 80% of the population would be expected to get it and around half a million would die. So if everyone got it, around 600,000 would die – which is about the number of people who die each year in the UK. So if everyone got the virus we’d get a year’s worth of death all at once. Of course anything remotely near that would be catastrophic in terms of the stresses on society. This is why dampening down the curve is vital – because although the risks to an individual are low, when you multiply them up over vast numbers of people then the total impact on society is huge, especially when it comes all at once. "

"If the measures we’ve put in place for COVID-19 work, even if we do get up to having hundreds of deaths per day, then the total number of deaths over the whole population might not be much bigger than normal for the year. Because the people who will die with COVID-19 are mostly elderly and have other conditions, many of them are likely to have died within the near future, but COVID-19 is bringing their deaths forward. Many deaths labelled as COVID may normally have been allocated to another cause a few months later on. The degree of overlap is currently uncertain – we can’t know how many of these deaths would have happened anyway. "

“It’s important we act not because of an individual decision – my own individual risk is quite low, but it is not my risk to me, it is my risk to the people around me which is important, which is why we need social distancing.

More on the supporting data (with tables) can be found on the Professor's blog:

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/does-covid-raise-everyones-relative-risk-of-dying-by-a-similar-amount-more-evidence-e7d30abf6821

and his original analysis at:

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

It is worth noting that this is the risk of dying, but it is clear that in some cases the post-Covid effects in  terms of damage to the body and possibly induced fatigue syndrome are also very serious.

Incomplete Statistics, or the Little Figures which aren't there

Incomplete Statistics, or the Little Figures which aren't there

The latest update, as of Monday, 20 April at 2:30pm from Jersey, and how much of an improvement has there been? Some but not nearly as much as there should be.

Negative tests:1,880
Confirmed cases: 249
Pending results: 153
There have sadly been 14 deaths related to COVID-19

Recovered: 118*
Total samples tested: 2192
Total people tested: 1914
Total Results back: 2175
Female positive %: 58%
Male positive %: 42%
Average Age tested positive: 54
Female recovered %: 55%
Male recovered %: 45%
Average age recovered %: 45
Number of hospital beds occupied: 63
Number of hospital beds available: 134
Hospital occupancy rate (in %): 32%
Number of patients with Covid-19 in hospital: 14

The statistics are improving but they are far from perfect. The slip shod way in which they have been put together shows through with the line “Average age recovered %: 45”. What precisely does that mean? Think about it. 

Guernsey Age Demographic

Average age tested positive is also a pretty useless statistic. What use is that unless we can see the spread over the population? I do get the feeling that the government is trying to get us all to buy Darrel Huff's work "How to Lie with Statistics".

In Guernsey, you can see not just how many men and woman have been tested and shown positive, but also the age profile of those testing positive. Guernsey went one step further and admitted that all of the deaths, including one in hospital, came from care homes.

They also have graphs which show how progress is being made, split between

Care Home Resident
Care Home Staff
Travel
Contacts of Known Cases
Unknown Community Source.

These are all significantly different, and they let us see if there is any clustering effect, as for instance with care homes.

When active cases are plotted, it can be seen that all are showing a reduction. That’s important, because it shows the proactive testing of all care home residents and staff when cases are found, is working, and the government has a grip on the situation in care homes.

I've had it suggested that we don't need these figures, and we should trust the government. But trust needs to be earned, and the best way to do that is to give out information to show the strategy works.

Building confidence in the strategy is a key part of how Guernsey presents its statistics. They also detail for the mathematicians like me the finer detail, should people want to see it, on how they present the statistics, what we used to call "showing the workings". Figures that popped up as answers without working out were always treated with a certain degree of suspicion by maths teachers, as unless you see the detail, you can't tell if mistakes have been made.

[Active cases are the total number of cases minus those who have recovered or are deceased. We are defining recovery as having no virus detectable on their nose / throat swab on Day 14 or later if a person is still symptomatic on Day 14]

Trust the Driver

The Need to Build Trust

I've been told "We have to trust the driver" and not criticise the government for the poor information given out. But if the driver doesn't seem to know where he is going, should you trust him?

Or to put it another way, would you trust the master of a great ocean liner, because of course he has years and years of experience, and knows vastly more than you do? I think we all know the answer to that question!

So here are some news stories which indicate a contradiction between what the government is saying, and what the position really is.

ITV News: 

A number of frontline health workers in Jersey have told ITV News they have either the wrong type of personal protective equipment (PPE), or there is a shortage of supplies.

ITV News reported the testimony of frontline staff who said they did not have access to the appropriate PPE.

In an address to the island, Senator John Le Fondré rejected these suggestions,

Baillwick Express: 

Elsewhere in the speech, the Chief Minister issued a firm rebuke to reports of a lack of adequate PPE for frontline health workers.

"The protection of our frontline health workers, who are saving lives on a daily basis, is an absolute priority," Senator Le Fondré stated.

The comment by Advocate Tim Hanson on Apr 9th, 2020 was most revealing:

It is hoped that the "rebuke" referred to in the article is just commentary. I repeat an observation I made weeks ago, that rapid response nurses dealing with people in the community (including my own relative) stated that they were not wearing masks because they were not provided with any. I can't believe they just made this up. My relative has since been diagnosed with Covid but has only had close contact with health workers. The masks provide a level of protection to both the wearer and the patient. Despite writing to the Health Minister as to why PPE had apparently not been provided (for everyone's safety) I have yet to receive a reply. It's good to have supplies now but the thinking has to be more ahead of the virus.

I have no reason to doubt the frontline staff.  Either the Ministers are peddling falsehoods deliberately or they themselves are happy to accept falsehoods conveyed to them by their civil servants. Either way, there is a clear need to rebuild trust.

Journal of a Plague Year

The title of this rondell is an obvious steal from Daniel Defoe's book of similar name "A Journal of the Plague Year", and the picture comes from one of the versions of the book's cover.

Journal of a Plague Year

Life under lockdown, days and days
Fleeting moments, passing weeks
Change is minor, smallest tweaks
And still the coronavirus stays

Now fever, cough, it comes, it stays
Some live, some die, onward seeks
Life under lockdown, days and days
Fleeting moments, passing weeks

Spreading out, the virus phase
As rising to the mountain peaks
Nightmare to the world it wreaks
Our natural world in strangest ways
Life under lockdown, days and days

Twelve Years as Churchwarden

This is a transcript of part of a booklet called “More Life in St Ouen” which was published in January 1988. It seems to be a local Church Magazine, printed and produced by St Ouen’s Church, and provides an interesting snapshot of how the Church was at that time, under the leadership of the Reverend Ray Speck, who was Rector of St Ouen.

My other post from this booklet can be read at:

http://tonymusings.blogspot.com/2020/04/st-ouens-church-in-late-1980s.html

Twelve Years as Churchwarden
by Brian Vibert
Ken Syvret and I took office together as Churchwardens in May 1976. We had both served our apprenticeship as Almoners and we felt that we had a good idea of the tasks that lay ahead. Ken replaced Jim Le Feuvre and took on responsibility for Le Tresor; I replaced my father, Harold, and took over the accounts for La Charite. In 1981 Martin Hewlett stepped into Ken's place when he resigned through pressure of other commitments.

What have been the highlights of the past twelve years? Never did I anticipate that one of the duties would be to deal with two homeless visitors who had camped down for the night with their gas-stove in the belfry. Nor did I envisage setting up a generator in the Churchyard to provide power to light the Church after the 1987 hurricane.

Some duties, though, I have carefully avoided and I confess that I have never visited the local hostelries during the hours of divine service on a Sunday to turf out those who should be worshipping in Church!

As Churchwardens we have responsibility for the maintenance of the fabric of the Church and Rectory and it is our duty to ensure that the Church building is suitably fit and comfortable for worship. Much time and effort have therefore been expended in that direction.

The Church was re-wired in 1976; the whole of the interior (excluding the Epiphany Chapel) was stripped of its old plaster and re-rendered and decorated between 1978 and 1981; the Fellowship Area was created in 1978 and later the Vestry was enlarged; various external walls were re-pointed; a new toilet was built; the car park was re-surfaced; an amplification system was installed in 1983; external lighting was improved to cover the paths and car park; televisions made their appearance in 1986 to enable internal visual relay throughout the Church, and the aisles, chancel and sanctuary were re-carpeted; the stained glass windows were refurbished in 1987; re-decoration, externally and internally, has taken place at regular intervals; and in 1988 there are plans to enlarge the car park.

The Rectory has also claimed much time and energy but the new building, opened in 1987, will save future generations of Churchwardens many of the problems we have experienced. In most of these projects we have worked closely with John Pirouet and Arthur Queree, who have both served the Parish as Connetable, and with the two Procureurs du Bien Public.

I praise God that I have been part of the team that has been involved with these material changes. However the real and lasting joy has been in spiritual matters where we have seen the realisation of "young men's visions and old men's dreams" (Joel 2,28) as the Holy Spirit has transformed the worship and witness of the Lord's people in the Parish Church.

Edward Richardson, who retired in 1976, laid a sound foundation on which Dennis Gurney was able to build in his seven energetic years from 1977-1984. During that time the importance of lay involvement came to the fore and many of us began to use God's gifts in a new way to His glory; the services were modified and the Church became more active in its outreach.

In 1985, Ray Speck joined us bringing his gifts to the life of the fellowship. He has led us to appreciate worship in a fresh way, to know the relevance and power of God's Word in our day, to grow in our faith and to serve each other in love. As a result the work amongst the young people has blossomed; the prayer life of dozens of us has been enriched; the eight house groups now cater for over eighty members; new families have been drawn into the fellowship and our services are an increasing source of blessing.

Over the years it has been exciting to see a transformation in financial commitment as we have discovered God's plan for tithing and the value of covenanting. The faithfulness of many has enabled us to meet all our parochial and diocesan responsibilities and to support generously God's work in the Island and overseas.

As I am released from the duties of Churchwarden, I am delighted to close the door on countless time-consuming meetings. I look back nevertheless with gratitude on the privilege of working as a servant of Christ in the historic office of "surveillant" with the loving support and encouragement of Hazel, all my family and the members of the fellowship. I look forward to continuing in the servant role with the commission of all disciples to share the riches we have in Jesus Christ. I am conscious that Satan has cause to be more active than ever and I urge all who read this to be constant in prayer for Ray, for the Churchwardens and for all in leadership in the Church

Jersey's Shameful Lack of Transparency

Guernsey Figures

The Absence of Pie Chart Breakdowns

One of the most useful representations of statistics in Guernsey is the pie chart which gives a breakdown of cases which is shown above. These are absent from Jersey reporting which merely focuses on overall case numbers.

That 30% of cases also come from contacts also suggests that social distancing and some kind of lockdown is a good idea. That's where a pie chart is useful.

But it can also be seen straight away that 28%, nearly a third of all cases, comes from clusters in care homes.

Now that is significant in seeing what effect social distancing and lockdowns are having. What is apparent is that clusters in care homes (where social distancing is near to impossible) are providing a clear perspective on growing numbers of cases.

The Clustering Distortion effect in Small Populations

Where the numbers of cases in general are large, as in the UK, adding care homes will alter the mix, but not as significantly because there are larger numbers involved. Where small numbers are involved it provides a greater impact as it ramps up the numbers outside of the general lockdown zone.

The high numbers for care homes show why protecting care homes has become a priority and Guernsey has taken to testing all residents and staff where an infection has been found within a care home. We know that symptoms can be mild, and therefore hardly noticable, so referring only cases in care homes where residents or staff display noticeable enough symptoms is a bad idea.

Jersey has not revealed anything like this level of data, with the Health Minister, Richard Renouf, hiding behind a spurious argument from confidentiality that means he will not identify care homes. But he does not have to. Guernsey's Information Commissioner has no problems with a case grouping such as that shown above, because it shows care homes in general, and not specifically any one by name.

The inability to have this kind of transparency means that everyone is in the dark. Numbers may be rising, but if they are rising as a result of tests inside care homes, then that needs to be taken out of the equation when examining how general lockdown policy is working in the wider community. Otherwise, these clusters will distort the general trends.

Jersey provides a plot the 'curve' of the increase of coronavirus cases, but this by itself does not show the clustering effect of care homes, which is a statistical outlier from statistics in the general lockdown policy.

Also Jersey is only testing symptomatic cases in care homes (residents and staff) which means the virus has a far greater probability of expanding than in Guernsey within care homes, leading again to a distorting effect on the "curve" as well as putting residents lives at risk.

To give an illustration of how clustering can effect smaller populations in a way that it does not for larger populations, consider the average height of actors working in all of the movies in Hollywood in the 1930s. As you'd expect, it averages out. But if you considered the average height of actors working on "The Wizard of Oz"(1939), the presence of so many smaller height "Munchkins" would significantly affect the statistics for that movie.

Addressing the Cluster Curve

The failure to address the clustering effect in care homes is not limited to Jersey, and the Irish Times explains that a concerted catch-up is needed everywhere. However, what they point out applies just as much to Jersey.

"Although much of the contagion has been by community spread of the virus, public health experts are particularly wary of clusters of cases. According to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) a cluster is three or more cases in an institution within a 72-hour period. Latest figures show there are now 86 clusters in nursing homes across the State, representing a sharp rise in recent days. In addition, 33 outbreaks have occurred in residential institutions and 16 in community hospitals or long-stay units."

"The initial focus of the HSE and the Department of Health was to increase community testing and improve the readiness of acute hospitals to deal with a surge of coronavirus-related admissions. It meant there was a relative lack of planning for nursing home and long-stay facilities, with a concerted catch-up effort now required."

Care Homes and Mortality

In France almost a third of all coronavirus deaths have been of residents in care homes. In Italy an anomalously high number of recent deaths in the country’s care homes has prompted calls for a parliamentary inquiry. In Germany there have been reports of deaths in homes totalling hundreds across the country. Ireland reported coronavirus clusters in 86 nursing homes on Wednesday, more than double the number from last Saturday, fuelling accusations that authorities moved too slowly to protect some of those most vulnerable to the disease.

We need to add to the mantra "Stay Home and Save Lives", the mantra: test all staff and residents at care homes and save lives. It is NOT enough to just test obviously symptomatic cases. The global statistics on care homes demonstrate that. Not to test properly and thoroughly is negligence on the part of the Government of Jersey, and to make facile excuses that it can't be done - when Guernsey managed it - displays a staggering contempt.

Guernsey Figures

The Absence of Age Demographic Breakdown

Guernsey has also released a chart showing a breakdown between male and female cases. Now when we combine this with the pie chart, we can surmise that the tendency for older cases in the 85+ area is because firstly, more women than men fall statistically into that group (they live longer) and secondly, more are likely to be resident in care homes at that age.

Guernsey's data could do with improvement, for example, a split of the growth curve between care homes and the rest of the community would be helpful. [My error - they have done this. It's brilliant!] Jersey should of course also follow suit with this and better charts. At present, there is a shameful lack of transparency compared to our Guernsey counterparts, and it seems little will for the Health Minister to do better rather than hide behind spurious issues of confidentially - spurious - because Guernsey, which has a smaller population manages to do this so much better.

St Ouen's Church in the late 1980s

This is a transcript of part of a booklet called “More Life in St Ouen” which was published in January 1988. It seems to be a local Church Magazine, printed and produced by St Ouen’s Church, and provides an interesting snapshot of how the Church was at that time, under the leadership of the Reverend Ray Speck, who was Rector of St Ouen.

St Ouen has always tended towards the Conservative Evangelical wing of the Church of England, and it is interesting to note that one of the talks at this conference was about "Belief, unbelief and occultism” as it was about this time that Jersey woman Diane Postlethwaite was taken to court for practising clairvoyance for profit.

There was a strong belief in some Church circles in the 1980s that Jersey was full of witches worshipping the devil and practising black magic in covens, no doubt fuelled by G.R. Balleine’s article in a Bulletin of the Societe Jersaise, which draw strongly on the works of Margaret Murray, and indeed some still do today.

Now while I have good grounds for believing Ray Speck had nothing to do with the case, the fact that this was mentioned in the “Spring Harvest” account shows that it very much formed part of a fundamentalist zeitgeist at this time. I would just add that no modern historian takes Murray’s work on witches seriously as the evidence does not support it.

A note on the event: Spring Harvest is an inter-denominational evangelical conference and gathering in the United Kingdom that started in 1979. Its stated aims are to 'equip the Church for action' through a range of events, conferences, books and resources. The tone is generally evangelical with modern worship music, workshops and Bible study groups. In 1988, a worship album was launched at the festival, with profits going to Christian projects involved in supporting those with HIV/AIDS. It went on to raise over £20,000, a tidy sum on those days.

I’ve also included some of the adverts from the magazine as these are rather fun.

Spring Harvest by Jackie Payne
(January 1988)

This Easter several thousand people -- Christians and non-Christians alike — will be meeting for celebration, study and fellowship in the Butlins camps at Minehead and Skegness. Spring Harvest, a series of week-long festivals running simultaneously in the two venues, was initiated a few years ago by a group of people who felt the need for Christians of all denominations to meet, share and learn together. It has proved to be extremely successful.

During Easter, 1987, a group of approximately 35 people from St. Ouen's church, family parties included, braved the somewhat uninspiring climatic conditions of north Somerset to learn just what Spring Harvest had to offer the ordinary person.

Greeted by continuous torrential rain we arrived at the holiday centre in the late afternoon of the first day and from then on were swept along in a whirlwind of events which left us exhausted but generally exhilarated at the end of each day. We began the experience in a Big Top packed with some 6,000 people and spent an evening singing and being introduced to the speakers who would guide the week. Each day we were able to attend as many or as few events as we chose — sometimes depending on the importance of a lie-in! 

The start of the proceedings was prompt — a bible study at 9.30 a.m. to put the brain in gear — rather a shock to the system for many! As the day progressed, and eyes became less bleary, seminars were held on the chosen topics of the week. These were COMPASSION, CONVICTION, COMMUNITY and CONVERSION. The discussions revolved round the ways in which Christians' can put their beliefs to practical use among the rest of the community for the benefit of all.

It was also possible to listen to various speakers who dealt with subjects as varied as "How to be a missionary", "Feminism" and "Belief, unbelief and occultism". The list of options was so comprehensive that most people found something of personal interest. So much reference to seminars and lectures perhaps conjures up rueful visions of school and hard work, but all one needed to gain something during the Spring Harvest week was an open mind and the desire to hear sound teaching on important issues which face us all. 

Evenings were spent in the Big Top singing lively songs, praying and hearing various people speak — some giving testimonies of faith and others describing their work as Christians. The atmosphere was vibrant. There was an immense aura of fellowship between a large group of people from all corners of the United Kingdom. Altogether, the entire Spring Harvest experience was highly worthwhile. As "a Christian I found it greatly helped the strengthening of the basis of my faith in the Lord. Many non-Christians who have been to Spring Harvest have voiced the opinion that it gave them much to think about.

The Anglican Incompleteness Theorem

A Review of Incompleteness

Kurt Godel is a mathematician famous for his incompleteness theorem, which basically states that in a formal axiomatic system -where you start from what might be termed “basic assumptions”, there will be some hypotheses that cannot be proved within that system.

For example, Euclidean geometry is defined by five axioms, and the fifth or parallel postulate states that:  "That, if a straight line falling on two straight lines make the interior angles on the same side less than two right angles, the two straight lines, if produced indefinitely, meet on that side on which the angles are less than two right angles. "

Or, to put it more crudely, in a popular fashion, parallel lines never meet

Now one can construct consistent systems of geometry (obeying the other axioms) in which the parallel postulate is true, and others in which it is false - spherical geometry being one example. Both systems are complete and valid within themselves with the four axioms, although they differ markedly on the fifth.

Kitchen or Cathedral: Which Postulate is True?

Looking at what has been happening with the Anglican Churches in England and in Wales, there is something very akin to this going on.

The Anglican English “geometry” holds that clergy cannot livestream or put out on the internet pre-recorded services from within their own churches, or ring bells, even if government guidelines permit it, for a variety of reasons, one of the most significant of which is solidarity: we are all in this together. The Archbishop of Canterbury broadcasted from his kitchen.

Meanwhile the Anglican Welsh “geometry” says that clergy can livestream etc for a variety of reasons, one of the most significant is symbolism and a sense of continuity in troubled times. The Archbishop of Wales broadcasted from  his Cathedral

Most other denominations such as the Church of Scotland, the Roman Catholic Church in England and Wales – and Jersey – tend to follow the Welsh position. The Moderator designate of the Church of Scotland, for example, live streams regular Sunday services from the Kirk (in fact just as he was before the lockdown).

So I don’t think the arguments for and against the two positions are something one can judge and take sides on: there would seem to be compelling reasons for taking either position. They cannot be derived uniquely from any general theological principles. We cannot just put Canterbury in one set of scales, and Wales in the other, and hope to see on what side the balance lies!

I favour the Welsh approach, but others favour the English approach. Any review of the discussion on “Thinking Anglicans” shows arguments given on both sides, but clearly none decisive enough to sway their opponents. It is very much a case of an Anglican incompleteness theorem.

Laudian Discipline: And Why it is Wrong.

So what can we say about the difference between English and Welsh Anglican stance? I think it is not so much about arguments, but more about how this was imposed from above.

Since Convocation, and after that the establishment of Synods, the Church of England has appeared to operate on the basis of consensus, which is, after all, how both women priests and women bishops came about. But the recent rulings by Justin Welby, even if he had the agreement of the English Bishops, seem to have totally ignored the wishes of the clergy of laity and the need to build consensus.

The last Archbishop whom I can recall really irritating the clergy and the laity was Archbishop William Laud, who was Archbishop to Charles I.

Jersey historian G.R. Balleine’s critique of him in “The Layman’s History of the Church of England” addresses the failings of Laud in imposing his rulings upon the church. Now Laud was very much a ritualist, and Welby is not, but the sentence in Balleine rings true – “his attempts at coercion absolutely infuriated the laity.”

Balleine lists one of Laud’s mistakes as a failure “to realise that England was an adult nation now, ready to respond to reason and to skilful leading. but absolutely impossible to drive”. Laud took a different view, that “the discipline of the Church should be felt as well as spoken of.. A Bishop’s first duty was to enforce regulations.”. According to the Times, regarding the current situation: “Those who breach the rules have been threatened with disciplinary action that could mean suspension.”

It is also notable that other denominations (and Welsh Anglicans) have singular failed to follow his lead which suggests a failure to build consensus which has been short-circuited by the use of church discipline on the Church of England instead.

While Justin Welby may have very cogent (and to himself) compelling reasons for the “lockout” of clergy, the one thing he has not done is to treat the clergy and laity as adults. He has enforced regulations (on streaming, recording and bell ringing), backed up (or so it appears) with a threat of ecclesiastical discipline, and I suspect that much of the anger stems from the fact that he has forced a position, rather than continuing to work to persuade.

Advice or Directive: Being Economical with the Truth

Christian Today reported on Father Marcus Walker, Rector at Great St Bartholomew's, in London, who had questioned whether the bishops had a legal right to order clergy not to say daily prayers and offer Communion inside their church buildings. Archbishop Justin Welby was asked about this on the Andrew Marr Show last Sunday. He insisted that the bishops had not broken any canon law in asking churches to remain closed. "We have given guidance, not instruction," the Archbishop said. He continued: "Frankly, Andrew, in the Church of England, the one way to get anyone to do the opposite of what you want is to give them an order. It works with all of us. Someone said it's like herding cats.”

This is, of course, a blatant evasion of the truth. The missive sent out by the Archbishops of Canterbury and York uses the words "directive" not "guidance". The difference is illustrated simply. The Government of Jersey first issued guidance about social distancing, but when they later gave it force of  law, it became a directive.

And finally, it should be noted that the Welsh position is broader than the English one: it is possible for clergy in a Welsh parish to follow the English position, but they are also (within government guidelines) free to follow the lead of the Archbishop of Wales. In other words, he has treated the clergy like adults, able to weigh up their own consciences and make their own informed decision., and not like “herding cats”.

The Church of England and Islam: A False Conspiracy Theory

I recently received an email to the effect that Justin Welby's stance on not allowing clergy in England to livestream from their own churches (or ring bells) is being done, with government approval, not to offend Muslims, who would otherwise be tempted to break the lockdown during Ramadan.

This is a conspiracy theory, and I think it needs addressing - hence this blog. It is palpable nonsense, but poisonous nonsense.

While I think Justin Welby’s stance is mistaken – the Welsh Bishops led by Archbishop John Davies (who livestreamed from Brecon Cathedral and is encouraging limited bell-ringing where safe and also livestreaming from churches) are (in my humble opinion) just as sensible, if not better, it has absolutely nothing to do with Islam in the UK, as any research will demonstrate. Saying that it does is only likely to rouse fears about Islam, and we could do without that.

So here are a few facts:

1. The Muslim Council of Britain is fully supportive of a lockdown Ramadan and believe me there will be NO temptation. One of the Hadith traditions is to keep the community safe, so actually this supports social distancing, and closing Mosques etc to public use. In fact, back in March, over 375 mosques, community centres and prayer facilities in the UK had confirmed the suspension of congregational prayers. This came in a week that the Muslim Council of Britain called for the suspension of all congregational activities in Muslim communities, including prayers, events and weddings. The decision has not been taken lightly, given the centrality of prayer and congregational prayer to Muslims.

2. The British Islamic Medical Association offers free training for all for all medical students joining the frontline. As locals are aware, in Jersey as in the UK, a number of staff including senior medical staff, are Muslims. Last week, the British Islamic Medical Association (BIMA) has announced a free webinar for all final year medical students that are being recruited to work in the NHS amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. That's ALL, not just for Muslims, please note. They are supporting the front line, both in training and manpower.

3. Harun Khan, Secretary General of the MCB said: “Safeguarding all of our communities is paramount, and it’s reassuring so many mosques and prayer facilities have heeded this advice in trying their best to minimise the spread of the coronavirus. Crowds at mosques draw the elderly, vulnerable and those who are high risk. With the increasing rate of transmission and the number of deaths, for the safety of our families, our communities and society, we cannot afford to take any risks. We all have an Islamic and public duty to protect one another from harm, and I hope the remaining mosques, Islamic centres and prayer facilities across the UK take this extraordinary step in these unprecedented times and suspend all congregational activities.”. Please note “Islamic duty to protect one another from harm”! This is a religious obligation for Muslims. Would that some of the more secular inhabitants of this Island who flout social distancing follow that guidance!

4. To get around the social distancing restrictions, organisations and mosques have set up online webinars and video conferences. One such example is the UK's Ramadan Tent Project, which usually hosts an outdoor open iftar every Ramadan: this year it will host online webinars to address spiritual questions and offers advice on how to benefit from the holy month.

5. Many mosques are now giving online alternatives, such as video conference platforms or live streaming, as a substitute for the centuries-old tradition. I’ve checked a number of UK sites which are offering livestreaming by Muslim leaders, some from within Mosques, which is like Anglican Wales or Roman Catholics, within Government guidelines. In particular they have been live streaming the khutbah, the sermon given before the congregational Friday prayers. This virtual congregation may continue during Ramadan so that prayers can be observed from the safety of worshippers’ homes. East London Mosque (the largest in Britain) is livestreaming from the main prayer hall. This makes a nonsense of the idea that Muslims will defy the government. They are working within the guidelines.

Anima Christi

An Easter poem, with an inspiring painting above by Paula Mayberry. It was inspired by a Good Friday service streamed from Brecon Cathedral with Archbishop John Davies, and some Charles Williams came in ("The Greater Trumps"), Mary Poppins ("Feed the Birds, especially Cathedral part of song with choir), George MacDonald ("At the Back of the North Wind"), C.S. Lewis ("Farewell to the Shadowlands"), and of course the Prophet Isaiah.

Anima Christi

In Brecon Cathedral, the Saints look down:
Outside, empty streets, deserted town,
As if God had abandoned world;
The black rider with banner unfurled:
The greater trump: the sign of death,
Of struggling, painful, dying breath;
Weep: so many died, lives lost,
As pestilence renders savage cost;
But each remembered, yes each one,
Each was someone’s mother’s son;
And not forgotten, each left a mark,
However slight, however deep the dark;
And even where in pauper’s grave,
So far and distant from the nave,
Of that great Cathedral, silent, quiet,
The Spirit comes, despite the blight:
A mighty wind, with tongues of fire,
Across the land, and round the spire,
Across the sea, and across the sand,
Takes them away, from shadowland;
For the door is opening into light,
And none can stop it, no fell wight,
No deadly plague, no deadly snare,
Now with the dying in their prayer;
The stone rolled back, so nearly time,
The bells ring out, the clocks do chime;
The captives free, the sign of grace,
For all who dwell in time and space;
It is Easter day, the dawn will break
Death is no more: awake, awake!

A Tale of Two Islands

A Tale of Two Islands

I’ve been reading Lucy Stevenson’s piece in the JEP about contact tracing, and how anyone in contact with someone who may have Covid-19 has to self-isolate for two weeks. This is part of the problem without a proper testing regime. Even with a five day lag, if contacts were tested, as they do in South Korea, they’d know that they were clear much sooner.

The case of 17 residents in a care home illustrates the failure to test properly as well. The message from Richard Renouf was that as a precaution, Staff who are displaying symptoms have been advised not to come into work and to contact the helpline if they develop fever or respiratory symptoms.

Contrast that with neighbouring Guernsey, where when a cluster was identified in a care home, all the residents – and all the patients – were tested. That’s the way to do it, not rely on the displaying of symptoms by which time it may have already infected more patients.

Richard Renouf said:

“Sadly, we cannot prevent the spread of coronavirus in care homes, but we can mitigate the way in which it can be spread.”

Well, yes actually Deputy, you can prevent by ensuring that when a cluster is found, like Guernsey, whether symptomatic or not, all staff are also tested as well as all residents.

When three residents had been identified as a ‘cluster of cases’ in Guernsey, the authorities undertook further testing of all those living and working at the facility whichs uncovered a much wider spread of the virus.

So what I can say by way of constructive criticism.

The States of Guernsey have also launched a new online community monitoring system. All islanders, whether symptomatic or not, are being urged to submit their details online so the government can track their progress in the coming weeks to build a better picture of who is self-isolating, and the scale of suspected cases beyond those being tested.

Can't Jersey get its act together and do the same?

Postscript

BBC Radio Jersey reports:

The Government of Jersey is asking islanders to fill out a household health survey.

The online form asks for the following information for each household member:

• Any symptoms of coronavirus
• Recent travel
• Underlying medical conditions
• Were they self-isolating before 30 March

The survey does not tell people if they have Covid-19, and islanders can update their information if their condition changes.

At least something has happened.

It's at
https://www.gov.je/News/2020/Pages/HouseholdSurvey.aspx

Church bells to ring out on Easter Sunday... but only in Wales

The Church of England leaders in the Channel Islands are asking people to ring bells at 10:00 on Easter Sunday to celebrate the festival during the coronavirus pandemic.

Churches in the island are closed as clergy members follow local government advice to stay at home with some streaming services on social media.

This means no church bells will be rung over Easter weekend and both deans are inviting islanders to "ring any bells that they may have in their homes" at the same time.

This is in line with the instructions (which have force of law) by the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby. The Deans have little choice but to obey and instruct clergy to obey.

Meanwhile, in Wales.. things are very different. Archbishop of Wales John Davies - as well as encouraging streaming services from churches where safe to do so, also is now encouraging bell ringing.

As the website for "The Diocese of Swansea and Brecon" says:

Church bells will ring out in the Diocese of Swansea and Brecon and elsewhere on Easter Sunday after an appeal by Archbishop of Wales John Davies and some of his fellow bishops.

They have emphasised that the visit to the church building by a bell-ringer, either alone or with a member of his or her household, will be undertaken in strict adherence to Welsh Government regulations and the Bishops’ own Pastoral Guidance.

Easter is the most important festival in the Christian calendar but church services across the country have been cancelled across the country because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Archbishop, who is president of the Diocese of Swansea and Brecon’s Guild of Bell-ringers, is asking ringers throughout the diocese to mark the day by ringing a bell at 10.30am.

David Katz, guild-master of the Swansea and Brecon Diocesan Guild of Bellringers, has written to ringers across the diocese asking them to ring within current guidelines. A copy of the letter is available here.

“It’s very good that Archbishop John is so aware of bells’ symbolic significance and their ability to convey a sense of continuity, a notion treasured by the vast majority of bell-ringers,” he said.

“Doing this will not be a trivial gesture. Even though it’ll be extremely basic, under present conditions its significance will certainly rank alongside contributions bell-ringers make to major national events like the 2018 Great War centenary.

“Easter Sunday is the highest point of the Christian Year at which we give service to the Church, so Archbishop John’s request at this time of national anxiety is especially welcome.”

So why not go online this Easter and listen to some of those bell-ringing in Wales.

Links:

https://swanseaandbrecon.churchinwales.org.uk/news/2020/04/church-bells-to-ring-out-on-easter-sunday/?fbclid=IwAR2vQyTdhV0xWvzm4Yo3I5hbWbiN91Qu0Psr37I4Lg8253z7oEkAZm1euic

DEANERY OF JERSEY PRESS RELEASE: A Comment

DEANERY OF JERSEY PRESS RELEASE
MEDIA RELEASE

Immediate - 7 April 2020

Following a zoom meeting today of Church of England Clergy in Jersey, the Deanery of Jersey are announcing that from tomorrow, the 8th April, no services will be streamed live, or bells rung from any of its churches, until further notice.

This is to comply with the directive given by the Archbishops of Canterbury and York, asking all Clergy to remain at home wherever possible, in keeping with the guidelines issued by our respective governments and by which the general population are asked to abide. Services over the Easter weekend and until further notice, will continue to be streamed live from Clergy homes or pre-recorded using social media.

The Clergy also agreed to use other means to ‘toll bells’ and therefore invite all people throughout the Channel Islands, to ring any bells that they may have in their homes, or play the sound through a PA system, phone or hand held electronic device, from their gardens or driveways or out of windows, at 10am on Easter Sunday, as a means of celebrating the great festival of Easter.

The Deans of Jersey and Guernsey said: “Although, for the time being, we cannot use our wonderful buildings or stream services from within them, congregations and clergy across the Channel Islands are using the internet in really creative ways to stream and record services and we look forward to people “joining” us on Easter Day. Please also ring or broadcast your bells from your homes, drives, gardens and balconies, at 10am on Easter Day to celebrate this great festival”. 

I see the Church of England in Jersey has gone with the general madness of the UK.

We have all the evidence of a top-down bureaucratic organisation, which has as much common sense as the Sanhedrin were, in their fear of doing the right thing not to offend the Romans. 

They could have waited until a week after Easter. Would a week have made such a difference?

The science:

1. Covid-19 cannot survive for more than 2-3 days at most outside a host body on ANY surfaces.
2. The only person involved is the Minister inside the church. The church is otherwise locked.
3. The scientific evidence is that there is zero risk.

I cannot see ANY scientific rationale for this. 

I can only see it as a political move, following the UK rather slavishly, and I had hoped that our Deaneries had more sense than that. 

Evidently not.

Addendum:

The Church Times has this to comment:

This direction from the Archbishops of Canterbury and York, and the bishops, contained in their recent letter to the clergy, goes surprisingly beyond the current restrictions outlined by the Government in the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020.

These state that a reasonable excuse for people to leave the place where they are living includes “in the case of a minister of religion or worship leader, to go to their place of worship” (6.2K), and, moreover, that a place of worship may be used “to broadcast an act of worship, whether over the internet or as part of a radio or television broadcast” (5.6b).

It also makes this point:

Guidance issued last Friday by the Archbishops’ Council’s Cathedral and Church Buildings Division states that “it may be reasonable for one designated person to enter the church to check that it remains safe and secure.” In most cases, regular checks will be not only reasonable, but essential. A curious situation will arise in which clergy and lay leaders are effectively obliged to perform janitorial duties, but will risk episcopal censure if they say any prayers while doing so.

The Shadow of Clifford Orange

Jersey people with Occupation memories may note the case of Clifford Orange who went way beyond what the law required in compiling lists of Jews. It was what Paul Sanders described as "a culture of blind obedience over humanitarianism". The circumstances were very different but the attitude that Justin Welby has displayed is much the same, going "surprisingly beyond the current restrictions", and then enforcing obedience much as the Church did in the time of Edward VI and the "Tudor Church Militant".

Elsewhere, streaming continues...

It is interesting that the Anglican Church in Wales seems to be applying this ruling and is still streaming services from its Churches.

https://www.churchinwales.org.uk/en/clergy-and-members/coronavirus-covid-19-guidance/digital-resources/live-streamed-and-recorded-services/

Catholic Churches are closed to the public but their priests are required to say their daily mass and pray for their people. They are still being streamed online. This is from their newsletter in Jersey:

Online Masses Please join us online at www.catholicchurch.org.je/live to access the Holy Mass from our own St Thomas Church on Sundays at 9.30am, 11am and 6pm, on weekdays at 12.15pm (moved back from 9.30am last week) and at other times in this Holy Week. 

You can also access there and at any time a video recording of Stations of the Cross led by our priests as well as find all sorts of other links to help you pray and worship at this time. When sharing in the Mass with us please follow the instructions on the webpage to ensure a good picture.

Micah’s Lament

Micah’s Lament

With a whisper heard from a distant land,
Death is coming with outstretched hand;
The city will crumble, emptying the street,
And no one will come outside to meet;
Vineyards lay untended, forgotten, lost,
And who can count the human cost?
Firm foundations of civilisation all,
Beneath a plague, crumble and fall;
The idols of money, growth and greed,
They left little space for human need;
But now brought low, a desolate heap,
Justice and mercy they seldom keep;
Wounds unhealed, this consuming fire,
And in its wake, the funeral pyre;
Now burning afar, but no one is safe:
Neither rich man nor homeless waif;
Destruction come to our land as well,
In our great cities too, so I do tell:
There is no refuge, no place to hide,
Plague has spread out, so far and wide;
I will mourn and lament, as many die,
And the people call out: why, o why?
But here I am, come weep with me,
In the midst of death, I do not flee.

St Ouen's Church Guide by Dennis Guerney - Part 6

This guide book to St Ouen's church was produced in the 1980s by the Rector Denis Gurney (Rector 1977-1984). A later guide book was produced by John Wileman. At present there is no guide book available within the church.

The final part of the guide has details on three of the past Rectors. I have also added some of the adverts as they are interesting - some are businesses which no longer exist, and some give interesting prices!

 

Canon George Clement

(Rector 1860 - 90)

A memorial on the north wall of the Chancel, by the Holy Table, records that Canon Clement died 24th December, 1890, aged 64. after serving the Parish for thirty years.

The Reverend & Mrs. John Pepin

(Rector 1891 - 1934)

A memorial on the south wall of the Chancel, by the Holy Table, records that the Reverend John Pepin died 5th May, 1936, aged 79, after forty-four years as Rector of St. Ouen.

Canon Edward Richardson

(Rector 1947 - 1976)

Canon Richardson was the thirty-fourth recorded Rector of St. Ouen. (The first Rector was a man named Etienne who held office in 1156).

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