The number of cases is falling significantly, but seems at present to be hitting an average of 20 new cases per day. This means there will be a plateau around 14 x 20 = 280 cases, where new cases match those falling off the system.
How is spread occurring?
How is spread occurring?
Given that most shops are closed, and households are closed to mixing, it would be useful to alert the public as to how these cases are spreading.
Those from inbound travel should be fairly safe given the 10 day and three test quarantine regulations. But where are those seeking healthcare popping up from? What are the key routes of transmission? Are they within families, or offices (with essential workers), or supermarkets, or DIY or garden stores? If retail outlets that are still open, are they among staff or from and to the boundary between staff and customers? Are they people still involved in household mixing?
In other words, some degree of granular investigation would help to yield a more informed strategy, and while such information may be redacted in part from the public domain, it would be helpful to know that a scientific strategy is being applied.
Can granular investigations determine safer occupations and businesses?
On closed premises, barbers and hairdressers had to take contact details for 21 days and operate under 2 metre rules and mask wearing when they opened. Given the decision to shut them down, was there any evidence of transmission within them, or was this just a blanket "small businesses" close down by the government?
The contact tracing requirement should, in theory, if done properly, allow some analysis to be done and to inform the closures of such premises. That we have not been given any such information in press briefings suggest more of a "blunt instrument" with closers.
Outside - Social Distancing is ignored
While the virus does spread less outside, I found it disquieting to see a number of catering venues outside where very little social distancing (if any) was observed. The kiosk at Bel Royal seems particularly bad in that respect.
As these are areas when people may be removing masks, it's not particularly helpful. I do understand the human need to socialise, but is this safe? Again some granular information on contact tracing and whether people may have frequented these venues would be useful.
Schools and the New Mutation
Schools start next week in Jersey, and if year groups have to all self-isolate in secondary schools, this will put the pressure up again on contact tracing which certainly did not help the spike in cases. When a whole year group has to self-isolate and be tested, this brings in delays to more small scale contact tracing, even if the number of school cases is relatively small.
Also a bit of direct observation might be helpful. I know from correspondence that there is closer mixing, often without masks, at break and lunchtimes, and schools also release all the students at the end of the school day at once rather than staggered.
Once outside school, they chat and are often in close contact, often not wearing masks. Given the rationale for children schools was that they would meet outside if not in school, this rather defeats the government objectives, which seem to be guided by an ideal of behaviour rather than direct observation.
Because the transmission of the new mutation of Covid-19 seems to be highly infections and also spreading among younger people, the UK and elsewhere are now moving to remote learning. Will our Government heed the lessons from this?
As Prospect Magazine reported:
"B117 seems to be more prevalent than the older variants in children and young people aged 0-19 years. The reasons aren’t yet clear. It’s possible that the variant is better at infecting young people than previous strains, but also possible that this increase reflects the fact that schools remained open during the lockdown, so more spreading went on there than elsewhere."
"Children can act as conduits for B117 to be passed on to adults, who are at far greater risk of illness and death. Given this, it was unconscionable that the UK government was even thinking, before its U-turn on 1st January, of opening any schools in London. And given the rate at which B117 is spreading elsewhere, it was deeply irresponsible to open schools anywhere else in the country today (other than for children of key workers or those who are at serious social or educational risk if kept at home). Scotland has announced full closures, and it now appearsEngland and Wales are likely to follow suit within hours."
Follow the science, and you close schools and implement remote learning. Otherwise we will almost certainly see another rise.
While the virus does spread less outside, I found it disquieting to see a number of catering venues outside where very little social distancing (if any) was observed. The kiosk at Bel Royal seems particularly bad in that respect.
As these are areas when people may be removing masks, it's not particularly helpful. I do understand the human need to socialise, but is this safe? Again some granular information on contact tracing and whether people may have frequented these venues would be useful.
Schools and the New Mutation
Schools start next week in Jersey, and if year groups have to all self-isolate in secondary schools, this will put the pressure up again on contact tracing which certainly did not help the spike in cases. When a whole year group has to self-isolate and be tested, this brings in delays to more small scale contact tracing, even if the number of school cases is relatively small.
Also a bit of direct observation might be helpful. I know from correspondence that there is closer mixing, often without masks, at break and lunchtimes, and schools also release all the students at the end of the school day at once rather than staggered.
Once outside school, they chat and are often in close contact, often not wearing masks. Given the rationale for children schools was that they would meet outside if not in school, this rather defeats the government objectives, which seem to be guided by an ideal of behaviour rather than direct observation.
Because the transmission of the new mutation of Covid-19 seems to be highly infections and also spreading among younger people, the UK and elsewhere are now moving to remote learning. Will our Government heed the lessons from this?
As Prospect Magazine reported:
"B117 seems to be more prevalent than the older variants in children and young people aged 0-19 years. The reasons aren’t yet clear. It’s possible that the variant is better at infecting young people than previous strains, but also possible that this increase reflects the fact that schools remained open during the lockdown, so more spreading went on there than elsewhere."
"Children can act as conduits for B117 to be passed on to adults, who are at far greater risk of illness and death. Given this, it was unconscionable that the UK government was even thinking, before its U-turn on 1st January, of opening any schools in London. And given the rate at which B117 is spreading elsewhere, it was deeply irresponsible to open schools anywhere else in the country today (other than for children of key workers or those who are at serious social or educational risk if kept at home). Scotland has announced full closures, and it now appearsEngland and Wales are likely to follow suit within hours."
Follow the science, and you close schools and implement remote learning. Otherwise we will almost certainly see another rise.
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