Wednesday 30 September 2020

The Fatal Flaw in Voluntary Contact Tracing












The Fatal Flaw in Voluntary Contact Tracing

Four people in Jersey have tested positive for coronavirus after attending the same venue on the 16 and 17 September.

The island's health department is now contacting everyone who signed in to the venue, which hasn't been named, at the same time as the four affected people.

Deputy medical officer of health Dr Ivan Muscat said the incident showed the system was working and "can respond quickly to minimise the risk of further cases".

He added: "The venue visited by the four people has an excellent contact-tracing system in place and was able to share all required information at speed.

"This is as a timely reminder of the importance of all Jersey venues collecting accurate data on every customer, and of individuals cooperating with the authorities when asked to self-isolate as a direct contact of a positive case."

But....

Although you must ask for contact details, you can not force them and should not deny a customer entry or service if they refuse to provide their information. 

Government guidance makes this clear...

This guidance is to inform Jersey organisations of their responsibility to collect customer information for the purposes of contact tracing. If you are an organisation whose activities have the potential for anyone to be within 2 metres for longer than 15 minutes you must ask to collect contact information.

Contact tracing allows us to identify those that are at the highest risk of having caught the virus from a person who has been confirmed as having COVID-19 through a positive COVID1-19 PCR test. The contact tracing process only starts when there has been a confirmed case of COVID-19 established through a positive test.

The collection of simple contact information from customers allows the contact tracing team to help protect others who have been in close contact with someone who is a confirmed case of COVID-19 through the track and trace process.

But here is the complete weakness in the system! The guidance goes on to say:

Although you must ask for contact details, you can not force them and should not deny a customer entry or service if they refuse to provide their information. 

If we think it is important enough – and Health Minister Richard Renouf does - to make wearing of face masks mandatory in shops to reduce risk, then surely we need mandatory contact tracing where people are obliged to give details. Otherwise there is a gaping chasm in the “excellent contact-tracing system” which is not excellent as long as it has this black hole! 

And Richard Renouf thinks this is "robust". It's rather like putting locks and chains on  your front door and leaving the back door wide open!

https://petitions.gov.je/petitions/200499





Saturday 26 September 2020

Fugue for a Darkening World



I did steal the title for this one from "Fugue for a Darkening Island" by Christopher Priest, which seems at times whether it might be prophetic of the future. But I've kept away from his issues of ultra-nationalism and fleeing migrants from Africa, and concentrated more on the natural world around us. Today is traditionally when harvest festival is celebrated, and this poem is a dark mirror about the harvest - it actually uses the form and some lines from a well known harvest hymn. I also had in mind David Attenborough's stark warnings about extinction. Only at the end have I allowed some hope to creep in, because we must surely hope for something good to come from the perilous state of our world or perish, and if it is, it must come from our actions.

Fugue for a Darkening World

Fragments separate and scatter
Plague stretches over land
And fields, flooded, watered
The storm god’s might hand
Now comes the dark of winter
The famine, dearth of grain
The fading of the sunshine
And gales and the rain

Now comes the Unmaker
Of all things near and far
He withers tree and flower
Clouds hide the evening star;
The wind and waves obey him,
The dark lord of the dread
The black crows are his children,
The harbingers of dread

Peace is distant, ever further
The warring tribes in feud
The locusts eat the harvest
Our life, our health, our food;
And all there is to offer
A call to give, to love impart
The helping hands so needed now
And kindness in our heart

Friday 25 September 2020

Extracts from The Jersey at Home, Summer 1965 – Editorial










Extracts from The Jersey at Home, Summer 1965 – Editorial

The 1965 Royal Jersey Agricultural Society’: summer show will long be remembered as the “ Three Man Show," for all the championships and all but one of the challenge cups went to three breeders.

These ardent cattle men, Messrs Avrill, Gaudin and A'Court had a real field day and in overcoming all the other opposition had a real tussle among themselves for the honours. For three only to sweep the board in this manner was a real achievement and undoubtedly reflected the highest credit on the three herds. It is a lifetime’s: work to reach such a standard with one’s cattle and only by selective breeding can this position be reached.

The victories by these breeders was no flash in the pan for all three always feature strongly at parochial and island shows and while not always at the top as on this occasion, they are always to the forefront providing the strongest possible opposition. 
















As reported elsewhere the summer show was an extremely successful one with the senior female classes revealing some top quality animals - Jerseys at their very best.

It may not have been such a good day for the society with four trophies won outright - again by these three particular breeders. In one of the worst summers for nearly two decades the Society was at least fortunate with the weather, for it was a real summer's day with everyone present revelling in the bright sunshine at the scene that was unfolded before them. The weather was undoubtedly the making of the show for in such glorious conditions the cattle reacted accordingly and undoubtedly looked at their best.

Another milestone was also achieved this summer by Mr. F. A. Anthoine in winning the Pauline Challenge Cup and Scales outright with his aged cow, “ Supreme Vedas Design," who was the champion producer over Jersey for the third year in succession - an extremely fine performance. Silver and Gold Medal sires feature strongly in this remarkable animal’s ancestry, as do Ton of Gold cows. 














It is pleasing to see that the Junior Membership section continues to thrive and at these island shows the younger members compete against one another with great enthusiasm. They are also severe critics who know the finer points of cattle judging and it is most refreshing to note that the society acknowledges the value of these young members for it is in their hands that the future of the Jersey breed lies - and judging by the complete assurance they show the future is in pretty good hands. Additional interest at this last show was provided by an extra award, there being both junior and senior championships in this junior section. 

Overseas visitors were few at this show. Two German enthusiasts were present, one a director of the German Jersey Herd book. It is to be hoped that they were suitably impressed and that the need to buy fresh stock from the island home of the breed was emphasised by local exporters. At present the Germans buy Jerseys from Denmark and the breed is on the increase. Too often in the past, visitors have come and been impressed and then when one had hoped sales to some of these countries would materialise, nothing further has developed. Following the German visit, there should be a follow up with an intensive sales campaign in an effort to persuade the Germans to buy direct from the island.

In a competitive world such as we live in, it is imperative to advertise and campaign unceasingly in an effort to capture overseas markets. Other countries, including England, manage to export considerable numbers of Jerseys and the island is lagging behind. Without doubt an intensive campaign in an effort to remedy this is needed without delay.

Export figures over the past twelve months again show a drop. While more were sent to England than a year ago, and some 30 head were shipped to Turkey, very little interest was shown otherwise.

Belgium again took one while five went to South Africa. an increase of two, but 40 less were shipped to France and 59 less to Ireland where one was sent. A solitary animal made the journey to New Zealand but otherwise the list showed a blank . . .

Nothing at all to those great “Jersey " countries, Australia. Canada and the United States.

Such figures are undoubtedly depressing and one can but hope that there will be considerable improvement in the not too distant future. The commercial cattle industry is thriving on the island with better prices and a steady demand for milk and in these cases herds are on the increase. Despite this, however. the export trade is largely the life blood of the industry and intensive spadework will have to be done to build up once again this section of the industry.

Here we still breed for type and production, the true Jersey is readily available and most strains are in constant supply. For overseas breeders it is surely a necessity from time to time to come back to the island to renew their bloodstock and thus ensure a continuance in their herds of high production of rich Jersey milk.

This year will not easily be forgotten for the adverse weather experienced during the summer months and not since early June has there been any settled weather. From an agricultural point of view it has been a most difficult year and crop returns have only been moderate. Main worry at the present time centres around the tomato crop which is now being badly affected by the continuing wet weather and lack of sunshine. The crop is ripening very slowly and much of it is dying off due to this damp and cold. A month's dry weather with warm sunshine is needed but this seems too much to expect in such a year.

Combining these crop difficulties with the lack of demand in the cattle industry it will be realised that island farmers have not had a good year financially. in the face of ever increasing competition, growers are forming themselves into groups for marketing produce while a Potato Marketing Board is again being considered.

There is more and more of a tendency to co-operate in crop marketing . . . and this is something that could be followed by cattle breeders who need to present a closely united front in an effort to capture world markets in the face of fierce competition. Admittedly before any great measure of success can be achieved in this field, the question of transport costs will have to be studied with a view to solving this barrier to exports.







Thursday 24 September 2020

List of Facebook Groups about the Parish of St Brelade

This is a work in progress. It does not include private groups which are not open to the general public.

Charities


Love Thy Neighbour Jersey

A Jersey registered charity (AJC membership no 426) providing care and support for the long term homeless, the poor and those in need in the community.

Clubs and Organisations

https://www.facebook.com/groups/SBBBOA

Jersey Astronomy Club
https://www.facebook.com/JerseyAstronomyClub
A club for all those interested in Astronomy. Club house: Les Creux.

School Alumni

Les Quennevais School
https://www.facebook.com/groups/2217426299
A Facebook group designed for all Ex-LQ students to catch up and remember the good old days at LQ School

Sporting Groups

St Brelade's FC

Boating

St. Brelades Bay Boat Owners Association
https://www.facebook.com/groups/SBBBOA/

Special Interest Groups

St Brelade Parishioners
https://www.facebook.com/groups/StBreladeParishioners
A community group for the Parish of St. Brelade in the Island of Jersey - For friendly discussion, news, events, issues, etc.
Individual Groups

History

St. Brelade's Camping Park
https://www.facebook.com/groups/StBreladeCampingPark
St. Brelade's Camping Park was Jersey's top 5 Star campsite which ran for 30 years until it closed in the mid-90's. A group for comments, memories, photos or video.

Groups not easily classified under above classes.

Saint Brélade buy and sell
https://www.facebook.com/groups/578141209802026
This is a group for people who live in Saint Brélade to sell their unwanted items, only people who live in the parish to advertise things for sale but open to all who wish to buy.




Saturday 19 September 2020

Persephone’s Lament













In Greek mythology, Persephone is the Queen of the Underworld. She was the daughter of Demeter, who is the Goddess of fertility and bountiful harvests. Persephone’s story is used to explain the shifting of seasons and is known all over the world as one of the most famous Greek goddesses.

The story says that Persephone often enjoyed playing with the Naiads, who were freshwater-dwelling nymphs. One day, while Demeter was harvesting her bounty, and the water nymphs were distracted, Persephone wandered away to pick a flower. When she plucked the flower from the earth, the ground split open beneath her and Hades came thundering through with his chariot and horses. The capture happened so swiftly that no one saw where she went.

When Demeter discovered her daughter’s whereabouts, she demanded that Hades return her. However, while she was in the underworld, Persephone consumed six pomegranate seeds. Some say she was forced or tricked, while others speculate that she willingly ate them so she could safely return to her husband each year. In Greek mythology, when someone accepts food from a captor, they are bound to return to them.

The spring and summer is when Persephone is in the care of her mother. In her joy, Demeter makes flowers bloom and crops flourish. In the autumn, Persephone returns to the underworld, and Demeter lets the world die back in mourning, once more awaiting her daughter’s springtime arrival.

I've taken  the story of Persephone and reworked it as a psychological piece, so that it is time for Persephone to returns to the underworld, but this in fact is more like seasonal affective disorder, the depression that comes with the coming autumn and winter and shortening days. The shadowy image of "the stalker" could be internal, as much as it could be an M.R. James kind of ghostly figure.

Persephone’s Lament

Days are shorter, and I must leave the light
Descending into the darkness of the night
I know the shadow comes to enfold me
And deep, deep underground I will be
Already leaves turning brown and fall
The birds migrate, with farewell call
Those autumn pastimes: my goodbye
As storm clouds race across the sky
Here is harvest home, pumpkin pie
Nuts, apples, grapes, berries picking
Grain threshing, dancing and feasting
Bonfire burning leaves, cider drinking
Conker playing, but my world shrinking
As the earth begins again to slowly die
And now come cold winds, over land
The holidaymakers have fled the sand
Beaches empty, just the dog walker
In the mist, in the distance, my stalker
Coming my way, running, rag and bone
As the tide crashes down upon the stone
And there is no escape, no place to flee
As the Grey King comes to capture me

Friday 18 September 2020

Gas in Jersey - Part 6

LPG Reforming Plant with Butane Spheres, 1967















Continuing with a "A Brief History Of The Jersey Gas Company" compiled by Roger Long from research by Robin S Cox and Rene H Le Vaillant. The concluding part!

Other Parts:
https://tonymusings.blogspot.com/2020/09/gas-in-jersey-part-5.html

THE OCCUPATION AND AFTER

The German Occupation from 1940 to 1945 tested the ingenuity and resourcefulness of the Company’: workforce to the full. Shortages of raw materials and spare parts created ever-increasing  difficulties and in September 1944 production of gas ceased. The gas-holders were, however, filled and this gas was used as fuel for communal soup kitchens during the winter of 1944-5. As soon as a supply of coal was assured immediately after the Liberation. a stock of coke, which had been carefully concealed from the occupation authorities. was unearthed and used to commence heating the retorts.

 Consumption grew rapidly with the return of the evacuees and the post-war expansion of tourism. New plant was sorely needed to replace the existing over- loaded and outworn plant, and construction of a Vertical Retort House was begun in January 1952 and completed in March 1954. A further period of expansion followed and by 1964 the annual gas output had risen to nearly 700 million cubic feet. The Company now had over 130 miles of main between Gorey and La Corbiére making gas available to about 85% of the population.

A number of factors, not least of which was the rapidly rising price of coal, led to a search for an alternative raw material. As catalytic reforming of Liquid Petroleum Gases had by this time become an established means of gas production construction of a Butane Reforming Plant was undertaken, and early in 1967 a gradual change over from coal gas began. On 4th December 1968 the last of the old retorts was shut down concluding a period of 138 years of coal gas production.

Mixing room of the Butane / Air Plant. 1977




 





The most traumatic period in the Company's recent history arose from the decision, imposed upon the Board by several considerations, to convert from what was called Town Gas to a butane fair mixture. In addition to building new gas making plant a costly programme for converting every appliance in the island to the new gas was undertaken over a comparatively short period. This exercise, although not without problems, was successfully completed in June 1977 and butane air is now well established.

The simplicity and smallness of the new gas-making plant, which produces gas at over 98% efficiency, has enabled the Company to place on the market a substantial area of its Tunnell Street property which was largely used for storing thousands of tons of coal and coke.

Since 1973 the twin pressures of rampant inflation and the need to conserve fossil fuel resources have put a brake on the expansion formerly enjoyed by all the energy-producing industries. Despite the public’: evident response to these forces the greatest daily output in the Company's history occurred on 18th January 1979. The 198l price of butane feedstock used to make gas is nearly fourteen times that paid for the first load in 1966, yet the average price of gas supplied has only increased by a factor of seven during the same period.

The rapidity of recent technological changes will surely be a warning to those who would forecast what the future holds, as the Jersey Gas Company enters the second half of its second hundred years. Nevertheless, the Company is already making plans for further technological developments and, with a record of service to the consumer which is second to none, faces the future with confidence.

Spiral-guided. 750,000 cubic feet gasholder
built on the St Saviour Road site in 1949.
It has now been demolished



Tuesday 15 September 2020

How Freedom of Information Works














Request

How many swab tests were carried out during July and August, and what was the total cost of those tests?

Reply

Between 1 July and 31 July, 22,004 tests were carried out.  Most tests are processed by a company in England. This is completed under a contract, and therefore is commercially sensitive and costs are exempt from disclosure under Article 33 (b) of the Freedom of Information (Jersey) Law 2011.

My comment

I am at a loss to understand how you could not answer the request for costs when today the BBC published details of the costs made public. Perhaps you could explain this rather strange discrepancy, and why something can be commercial sensitive at one moment in time, and available about a week later? Does “commercially sensitive” in this context just mean “not available until the Government decides to make it public”.

BBC: Jersey's chief minister has revealed the island's government spent almost £5m on its Covid-19 testing regime in July and August.  The sum of £4.8m paid for both on-island testing and swabs at the harbour and airport.  It also went towards staff wages, as well as the cost of transporting swabs and having them processed.

Their reply:

Please accept our apologies for this oversight. The responding team have noted that they had misinterpreted the question, and answered about test processing costs, rather than the total cost of the testing service.

The total direct cost of testing for July and August is c£4.8m. Between 1 July and 31 August 2020, 57,102 on-arrival tests had been undertaken, along with 10,851 tests for Islanders seeking healthcare and/or essential workers. 

We note that the disclosure log will be updated accordingly.

Friday 11 September 2020

The Bringer of War












The Bringer of War

Look east to the planet, so glorious above
It’s Mars the Red Planet, I adore and love
I’ve waited so long, just counting the days
Now shining in splendour, now ready to praise

O tell of his might and sing of his grace
So perfectly in night sky, so red in deep space
As a god of the harvest, he makes the crops form
As god of the war, he calls forth the storm

The War of the Worlds, such stories recite
Of Martians in Tripods, of heat rays of light
They came to the hills, they descent to the plain
And red weed abounds and grows after rain

Poor creatures of dust, the Martians found frail
Our soldiers lie dead, the army does fail
But smallest of virus, bring Martians to end
They die of our colds, that small unseen friend

The War of Worlds ended, we once again love
And Mars is a dead planet, still shining above
But close to the earth now, with glory ablaze,
Red Planet so bright, we sing to your praise!

Gas in Jersey - Part 5

















Continuing with a "A Brief History Of The Jersey Gas Company" compiled by Roger Long from research by Robin S Cox and Rene H Le Vaillant.

At a special general meeting in October 1909 it was reported that for some time the Company had been involved in preparing a Private Bill to be presented to the States in opposition to a proposed Projet de Loi which called for “Public control of Gas, Water and Electric undertakings.“ Among other steps taken an independent valuation and assessment of the Company was obtained. as a result of which the Board congratulated Joseph and Harry Morris, they being satisfied “...that the Jersey Gas Light Company works are in a condition equal If not superior to any works of the same size in the United Kingdom."

The States passed the Bill for the Control of Public Companies in March 1910. The Company thereupon successfully lodged a petition with His Majesty's Privy Council “. . .praying that the said Bill be not sanctioned." However the Company’: position as a public utility was eventually regularised in 1918 by incorporation by an Act of the States of Jersey as the Jersey Gas Light Company Limited. As well as providing safeguards for the Company, control of gas quality and pressure was made statutory, and thereafter the tariff was based on British Thermal Units sold rather than gas volume.

Only one serious dispute has marred industrial relations within the Company. This led to the workmen withdrawing their labour on 1st November 1921. But they ensured the safety of the gas-making plant throughout the strike and work was resumed 18 days later.

During 1923 plans were put forward for a high-pressure gas distribution system to serve the east of the island. Construction was started the following year and the first gas entered the system on 20th December 1924. This and other extensions led to increased demand which was met by the installation of a Water Gas Plant in 1926. The only other interruption to gas production apart from the wartime occupation was in 1931, when exceptional rainfall on 24th August caused Le Fauxbie brook to flood into the works which was put out of action for a short while. 

Sunday 6 September 2020

Academic Albatross: Hitler Diaries and Gospel of Jesus Wife












“I regret that the normal method of historical verification has been sacrificed to the perhaps necessary requirements of a journalistic scoop.” (Hugh Trevor-Roper on the "Hitler Diaries" saga)

Following Mark Goodacre's excellent series on the Gospel of Jesus Wife, presented by Karen King to the world in 2012, I decided to compare how it failed to learn the lessons from another academic being duped by fakers. Mark's blog is at:

https://ntweblog.blogspot.com/2020/08/interview-with-ariel-sabar-on-nt-pod.html

What is The Gospel of Jesus Wife?

The Gospel of Jesus' Wife is a papyrus fragment with Coptic text that includes the words, "Jesus said to them, 'my wife...'". The text received widespread attention when first publicized in 2012 for the implication that some early Christians believed that Jesus was married. The title was given to it by Karen King - it is not named. It is about the size of a credit card, so it really is fragmentary.

The Hitler Diaries

One of the most notorious cases of an academic being taken in by a fake was the case was the Hitler diaries.

The New Yorker gives a concise summary of the emergence of the Hitler diaries:

On April 25, 1983, Stern magazine—the German answer to Life—held a press conference to make a sensational announcement: their star reporter had discovered a trove of Hitler’s personal diaries, lost since a plane crash in 1945. Now Stern would begin publishing what he’d found.

Involved in this was Gerd Heidemann, a journalist in the contemporary history section of Stern, and  Konrad Kujau, a small-time crook and prolific forger.

As the New Yorker notes:

While Heidemann continued to buy volumes (there were supposedly twenty-seven of them), two historians began a nearly-two-year-long project of verifying the diaries. (Unfortunately, they failed to notice that the history book they were using to check the diaries’ facts—Max Domarus’s anthology, “Hitler: Speeches and Proclamations 1932-1945—The Chronicle of a Dictatorship”—was the same one Kujau had copied swaths of information from, word for word.)

And there were even more obvious clues, had everyone not been so excited about the find:

Mistaking the Gothic “F” for an “A,” Kujau had accidentally labeled each notebook’s black cover “FH” instead of “AH,” a detail that failed to put anyone on alert

The Sunday Times turned to one of the greatest historians of his generation: Professor Hugh Trevor-Roper, author of The Last Days of Hitler, and Hitler’s Table Talk, now elevated to the title of Lord Dacre of Glanton.

As the Guardian noted:

Trevor-Roper didn’t merely pronounce the Hitler diaries genuine. He also declared them “the most important historical discovery of the decade.” He maintained that they were, in an odd comparison, “a scoop of Watergate proportions.”

But he began to get doubts:

Lord Dacre, better known as Hugh Trevor-Roper, the historian and director of Times Newspapers, who originally said that the diaries were authentic and then backtracked, commented last night: “I don’t want to blame anyone. It is my fault."

“I should have refused to give an opinion so soon. I have been convinced for some time that they are forgeries.”

The fallout was significant. As the Independent noted:

The historian Trevor-Roper was left badly damaged. For all his glorious academic achievements, it was the Hitler Diaries for which he was remembered. When he died in 2003, the headline on The Independent’s obituary called him “The Hitler Diaries historian”.

So why did it happen? Why were so many historians and journalists initially eager to pronounce the diaries as genuine?

Giovanni di Lorenzo suggested that it was part of the spirit of that age:

“Today, if a colleague came into the newsroom and said, ‘I just bought the Friedrich the Second’s crutches, from Goering’s collection,’ I would advise him to seek psychological help. But here, you read, they went on a tour of Heidemann’s collection, and came back enraptured... But what you feel, reading this text, is that there was a fascination with this time period, and with this ‘Adolf Hitler’ who played a role in all their childhoods. This is a fascination that is unimaginable in my generation.”

In other words, there was a psychological and cultural predisposition for the experts to pronounce the diaries authentic. No one initially dug deeper either into provenance (which is when the whole hoax was finally exposed) or even into the obvious copying from other sources within the diary itself. 

There was such an expectation to believe them genuine that, as Hugh Trevor-Roper regretfully noted in hindsight: “I regret that the normal method of historical verification has been sacrificed to the perhaps necessary requirements of a journalistic scoop.”

The Gospel of Jesus Wife.

Reading and listening to Mark Goodacre's podcasts, and reading the linked material, it seems as if something very similar had happened there, this "fascination with this time period". Obviously, with such a document much better prepared that the diaries - using old papyrus to present the material as genuine, it took longer, but the resulting investigation which proved it a fake followed similar lines (1) an examination of the text itself, and locating it as copying from a modern print of a Coptic text and (2) a detailed investigation into provenance.

There seems to have been an untimely rush to get the story out, and "The Gospel of Jesus Wife" was certainly a title designed for journalists rather than academics, and a world which had eagerly devoured "The Da Vinci Code", as well as its predecessor "The Holy Blood and the Holy Grail". Like "The Hitler Diaries", this resonated with the zeitgeist of our times in which Mary Magdalene is often seen to have a special and intimate relationship with Jesus. 

[In passing, I would say it is a shame that the other women in the New Testament are so often marginalised as a result of this focus on Mary Magdalene. "The Women around Jesus" by Elisabeth Moltmann-Wendel [late wife of theologian Jurgen Moltmann] stands apart in looking at all of those.]

It is not the only occasion in which academia has gone for the snappy title aimed less at colleagues, but more at the public - I remember "The Myth of God Incarnate" as another example. A perusal of the book elicited the simple fact that different contributors had different understandings of what myth meant, and sometimes the same contributor used it differently in the same article. And it came out at a time when secularism seemed especially on the rise (as Harvey Cox's "The Secular City" suggested); again in keeping with the zeitgeist.

And like the Hitler diaries, matters of provenance took a back seat, and even carbon dating came later in the day - after the press announcement. Like Hugh Trevor-Roper with the diaries, Karen King seems to have initially been too eager to accept the fragment as genuine.

After all, she said initially the fragment dated to the 4th century but could be a copy of an early gospel from the 2nd century. But in fact one of the carbon-dating tests indicated that the papyrus went back olny as far as somewhere between the year 659 and 869 , much later than her estimate. And she seemed to have overlooked the fact that - as The Atlantic magazine pointed out -forgers have access to genuinely ancient papyrus: blank pieces are easily purchasable on the antiquities market, as are papyri containing unremarkable texts from which the ink can be scraped off.

And for four years, she defended the so-called “Gospel of Jesus’s Wife” against scholars who argued it was a forgery. But finally she conceded that the papyrus—which she introduced to the world in 2012—is a probable fake.

A Late Apology

Karen King is a highly respected specialist in early Christianity whose work focuses on the Gnostics. But I can't help thinking that, like poor Hugh Trevor-Roper, this hoax will loom large in any future obituary, especially as unlike Trevor-Roper, she stoutly defended the papyrus for four years, where he began to have doubts within a very short space of time. 

History Magazine reported on her grudging acceptance of the hoax:

“I don’t see anything to retract,” King told the Boston Globe, noting that her research paper had always allowed for the possibility of forgery. “I have always thought of scholarship as a conversation. So you put out your best thoughts, and then people…bring in new ideas or evidence. You go on.” She did tell the newspaper that the experience had taught her one thing. “I would never agree to do an anonymous thing again. Lesson learned.”

However, in contrast, Trevor-Roper actually admitted his mistake over the diaries in a much less strident manner:

"I believe that I too was badly treated, both by Stern, which misled me with false evidence of fact (which I could not doubt unless I was to accuse them of bad faith) and, to some extent, by The Times, which did not allow me the conditions which I had at first been promised to check the material (i.e. a typed transcript of the German text on which I was to make a written report). However, I have refused to make any complaint or excuse on these grounds, for I recognise that I should have been firm and have refused to commit myself in the circumstances which actually obtained. So, when I first doubted the authenticity of the material, I decided to take the whole blame on myself-and I must admit that The Times and the Sunday Times were very happy to place it there."

The Failure of the Scientific Method

Karl Popper said of the scientific method, that you start with a hypothesis and you try to falsify it. The hypothesis was that the documents were genuine, but unfortunately there was not enough work done on trying to subject it to critical scrutiny.

Ariel Sabar notes that when she revealed her fragment, King refused to allow a (negative) response to be published alongside her article in Harvard Theological Review and that when she released her story to the press she did so on the condition that they only speak to pre-approved scholars

The same mistake can be seen in the methodology of the translation of the Gospel of Judas, which appears to have made significant errors, changing the meaning. April D. Deconick showed in detail how this changed the whole understanding of the text commented:

"National Geographic wanted an exclusive. So it required its scholars to sign nondisclosure statements, to not discuss the text with other experts before publication. The best scholarship is done when life-sized photos of each page of a new manuscript are published before a translation, allowing experts worldwide to share information as they independently work through the text."

That happened later with the Gospel of Jesus Wife, and at least the photos were available online and in high definition for scholars to work on. The working together of different scholars to track down major problems with its authenticity shows, I think, that an open scientific method in historical study works extremely well - but also that when it is curtailed, all kinds of mistakes are made. 

To give an analogy, it is like proof reading - one person can easily misread a text, but more sets of eyes there are, the greater the chance of catching any misprint. Equally if something is authentic, a robust critical scrutiny is more likely to establish that than trying to restrict scrutiny to a narrower field of views, especially if chosen to defray criticism. There really is a wisdom of the crowd, if it is a clever and diverse crowd.

The Academic Albatross

Like Michael Fish's notorious weather forecast, when academics make some mistakes, they are doomed to have those follow them, like an albatross hung around their neck. Both Hugh Trevor-Roper and Karen King seem to have rushed into authentication, without enough care, without making sure that the documents could not be forgeries.

As Ariel Sabar, author of Veritas: A Harvard Professor, A Con Man and the Gospel of Jesus's Wife, says: “In speaking to scholars, my sense is that her reputation has taken a hit"

See also:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/12/the-curious-case-of-jesuss-wife/382227
https://nypost.com/2020/08/15/how-a-mystery-note-proving-jesus-was-wed-led-to-harvard-profs-disgrace/
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/02/opinion/02iht-edeconick.1.8558749.html

Postscript:

While Hugh Trevor-Roper will be forever overshadowed by "The Hitler Diaries", in terms of a contemporary British conman he appears to have been remarkably more critical. The take of how he came to doubt and then pursue British impostor Robert Parkin Peters is outlined in "The Professor and the Parson: A Story of Desire, Deceit, and Defrocking" by Adam Sisman which I would highly recommend.

Summary at: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/books/review/professor-parson-adam-sisman.html

Saturday 5 September 2020

Imprisonment

















Imprisonment

In prison, waiting for release
Awaiting the sentence to come
The nightmare that will not cease
The endless beating of a drum

The day of judgement, time to tell
The scaffold prepared, all ready now
It is like bewitched by wicked spell
Before the breaking of the bough

I cry: Is there in Gilead, no balm?
I see the wooden block in place
Outside, there is a deadly calm
Awaiting ending of this race

Iron bars do not a prison make
But fear still says: awake, awake!

Friday 4 September 2020

Gas in Jersey - Part 4

















Continuing with a "A Brief History Of The Jersey Gas Company" compiled by Roger Long from research by Robin S Cox and Rene H Le Vaillant. 

A NEW START

In his English affairs Thomas Edge became bankrupt and on 30th September 1850 a receiver sold the St Helier gasworks to local trustees. This led to the formation of the Jersey Gas Light Company, of which Elias Néel Junior was elected President, George Heller Horman Vice-President, and John Gibaut Secretary. The other directors were Charles Fixott, Matthew Gallichan. George Gaudin and Thomas Anthoine; Clement Perchard was appointed Manager.

Local ownership resulted in a new confidence in gas and it at last became fashionable as a form of lighting in domestic properties. The Royal Court was lit and heated by gas and the newly-erected Victoria and Albert Piers were lit in 1857, the Markets in 1858 and the old Public Library in 1859. Extensions to the system were laid to Petit Bagot, Millbrook, St Lawrence's Valley and to Augrés.

Clement Perchard, the Manager, died in 1860 and on 23rd August the President. Elias Néel was appointed President and Manager. Subsequently a new hostility developed between the Company and the consumers and for the third time a rival gas company was promoted. During Clement Perchard's management the price had been reduced to 6s 6d a thousand cubic feet and the suggestion of a new company caused the directorate to drop the price to 6s 0d a thousand cubic feet. This was not good enough for the consumer who, by further agitation, obtained an instant reduction to 5s 0d.

As a result of this episode the duties of President and Manager were separated and Joseph Morris was brought from Guernsey to run the Company in December 1862.

In January 186l the Company bought more adjoining land on which to extend the works, in order to cater for the increased consumption created by the inauguration, on 24th June 1864, of the gas supply to St Aubin. In March 1867 the Company purchased the last house in Campbell Place (now 109 Bath Street) making them owners of the whole of the site between Gas Lane and Gas Place.

There followed a period of comparative stability and steady progress. A new office and the Company's first showrooms were opened on 31st May 1880, on the site of the present showrooms. This satisfactory situation did not prevent the Board keeping a wary eye on developments in other fields: “The question of electricity has been constantly under the attention of your Board, but its progress has not created any anxiety in their minds.”

Queen Victoria's Golden Jubilee celebrations were enhanced by the erection of 63,825 jets in ‘designs’ on a number of public and private buildings.

Harry Morris, a future manager, was appointed assistant to his father Joseph in September 1895. The following year the Board and shareholders presented Mr Morris Senior with an elaborate épergne mounted on a massive plinth of silver, suitably inscribed, in recognition of 34 years of service as Engineer and Manager.

A less cordial note was struck at about this time by the consumers in St Aubin, who petitioned the Company - unavailingly for a reduction in the price of gas from 3s 6d per 1000 cubic feet to 3s 0d as paid by Town consumers.

November 1893 saw the first mention of Mr Charles Robin's property in Tunnell Street, the site of the present works, and its purchase was completed by the following February. Substantial increases in output, which had quadrupled between 1862 and 1895, led to the decision to expand into larger premises, as a result of which construction of a completely new works on the Tunnell Street meadow was begun. It was reported during 1897 that progress on the new retort house was slower than expected and the first charging of the retorts was delayed until December 1899. Continued problems were encountered and it was February 1902 before the retorts in the old works could be finally shut down.

Wednesday 2 September 2020

Singing and Coronavirus












BBC News

There are calls for Jersey's health authorities to ease restrictions that are stopping island choirs from singing together in person.

Under the current guidance, singing is not advised either inside or outside due to the risk of spreading coronavirus.

Nicki Kennedy, who set up a virtual choir during lockdown, is frustrated by the lack of clear guidance about when that might change, after ministers suggested the restrictions may be in place for the rest of the year.

Some good(ish) news on singing. A recent study (summary below) shows that soft singing (not loud) may have little more risk than talking – but do note that it has not yet been peer reviewed, and only applies to singing softly. It was also a highly controlled study with a number of individuals singing separately. Clearly more work needs to be done, and this is just a preliminary testing experiment.

“Speaking and singing show steep increases in mass concentration with increase in volume (spanning a factor of 20-30 across the dynamic range measured, p<1×10-5). At the quietest volume (50 to 60 dB), neither singing (p=0.19) or speaking (p=0.20) were significantly different to breathing. At the loudest volume (90 to 100 dB), a statistically significant difference (p<1×10-5) is observed between singing and speaking, but with singing only generating a factor of between 1.5 and 3.4 more aerosol mass. Guidelines should create recommendations based on the volume and duration of the vocalisation, the number of participants and the environment in which the activity occurs, rather than the type of vocalisation. Mitigations such as the use of amplification and increased attention to ventilation should be employed where practicable.”

It does NOT apply to choirs, as they state, group singing was not studied, and would probably be a greater risk. Other studies of infections (further below) confirm that choirs and group singing, as well as singing loudly, remains a risk.

Studies also suggest that ventilation helps, so soft singing outside is even less risky. But it does look hopeful for some future with singing, even if the Herald Angels may be rather muted this year.

The full article is at:

Comparing the Respirable Aerosol Concentrations and Particle Size Distributions Generated by Singing, Speaking and Breathing 

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/preprint/Comparing_the_Respirable_Aerosol_Concentrations_and_Particle_Size_Distributions_Generated_by_Singing_Speaking_and_Breathing/12789221

And it notes: “These are preliminary reports that have not been peer-reviewed. They should not be regarded as conclusive, guide clinical practice/health-related behavior, or be reported in news media as established information.”

Despite that, some rather misleading précis which omit that it is a preprint not peer reviewed have appeared. or put that just into one sentence, whereas it is extremely important in any scientific study.

A summary of the findings:

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/spread-of-covid-19-doesnt-depend-on-what-you-sing-but-how-loud-you-sing-it/ 

Singing is no more risky than talking when its comes to the possibility of coronavirus transmission but it all depends on how loud a person is, scientists have said.

In a new study, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, researchers at the University of Bristol have found that speaking and singing generate similar amounts of aerosol droplets when the sound volumes are the same.

They found that higher volume was associated with an increase in aerosol mass in both speaking and singing, with the loudest level generating up to 30 times more aerosol mass than the lowest volume.

However, they said there were no significant differences in aerosol production between genders or among different genres of music such as choral, musical theatre, opera, jazz, gospel rock or pop.

As part of an ongoing research project, called Perform, the researchers looked at the amounts of aerosols and droplets generated by a large group of 25 professional performers that were up to 20 micrometres (0.02m) in diameter.

The singers performed a range of exercises including breathing, speaking, coughing, and singing at a hospital operating theatre with a “zero aerosol” background.

Dr Florence Gregson, a researcher at the University of Bristol and first author on study, said using this hospital setting setting meant “any aerosol we detected with our measurements, we could directly attribute only to what the singer had produced”.

The experiments included singing and speaking Happy Birthday at different sound levels, between the ranges of 50–60 decibels (dB), 70-80 dB and 90-100 dB.

At the loudest level, singing generated more aerosol particles than speaking but the researchers said that this difference was “very modest”.

Based on their findings, the researchers said ensuring adequate ventilation in the venue may be more important than restricting a specific activity.

Jonathan Reid, an expert in aerosol science at the University of Bristol and a corresponding author on the paper, said: “The study has shown the transmission of viruses in small aerosol particles generated when someone sings or speaks are equally possible with both activities generating similar numbers of particles.

“Our research has provided a rigorous scientific basis for COVID-19 recommendations for arts venues to operate safely for both the performers and audience by ensuring that spaces are appropriately ventilated to reduce the risk of airborne transmission.”

Dr Julian Tang, honorary associate professor in respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester, who was not involved in the study, said: 

Also, the study was performed on individual singers one at a time – when the particle profile was found to be similar to talking. The risk is amplified when a group of singers are singing together, eg singing to an audience, whether in churches or concert halls or theatres. "

“This may also affect the airflow dynamics of that air volume which may be more than the individual contributions from each singer via some complex resonant entrainment airflow dynamics that may propel these aerosols further. It is not comparable to the quiet breathing of the audience whose breathing will not be synchronised in a coordinated manner – like the exhalations of the choir – or talking to each other on a one-to-one basis.

“The risks should not be overly underestimated or played down because of this – we don’t want choir members getting infected and potentially dying from COVID-19 whilst doing what they love.”

He added: “It is a nice study but not exactly representative of the real whole choir dynamic which really needs further study to truly assess the risk of such large volume synchronised singing vocalisations/exhalations.”

This is a handy Q&A which gives details of how the study was done:

https://www.pri.org/stories/2020-08-13/choirs-age-coronavirus-new-study-looks-risks-singing

Also to note:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm

Choir practice attendees had multiple opportunities for droplet transmission from close contact or fomite transmission (9), and the act of singing itself might have contributed to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Aerosol emission during speech has been correlated with loudness of vocalization, and certain persons, who release an order of magnitude more particles than their peers, have been referred to as superemitters and have been hypothesized to contribute to superspeading events (1). Members had an intense and prolonged exposure, singing while sitting 6–10 inches from one another, possibly emitting aerosols. his outbreak of COVID-19 with a high secondary attack rate indicates that SARS-CoV-2 might be highly transmissible in certain settings, including group singing events.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/did-singing-together-spread-coronavirus-to-four-choirs

Jamie Lloyd-Smith, an infectious diseases researcher at University College Los Angeles, said it was possible that an infected singer might disperse viral particles further than other infected individuals. “One could imagine that really trying to project your voice would also project more droplets and aerosols,” he told the Los Angeles Times. In this way, the virus would cause increased numbers of infections.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-06-14/how-can-we-resume-choir-practice-without-spreading-coronavirus/12344812

Experts are mostly singing from the song sheet on this one — singing is a very effective way of spreading COVID-19.

To understand why, we need to take a quick look at how coronavirus spreads. When someone who's infected with COVID-19 coughs, sneezes, talks loudly or sings, they spray out a shower of secretions. These include larger respiratory droplets or aerosols, which are tiny particles of 5 microns or less in diameter, that can carry the virus. Aerosol particles are so tiny and light that they can remain suspended in the air, rather than quickly falling to the ground like a larger, heavier respiratory droplet.

It's this viral 'weather system' that can potentially spread coronavirus, says fluid physics expert Professor Con Doolan. If you're standing too close to an infected person when they cough or sing, you could breathe in the particles they have projected into the air. A cough can push this 'weather system' up to two metres away, and while we don't know exactly how far singing projects particles it could be further than a cough, says epidemiologist and World Health Organisation (WHO) advisor Mary-Louise McLaws. Someone vocalising an 'aah' sound followed by 10 seconds of normal breathing emits around 60 per cent more aerosols than 30 seconds of repeated coughing, research from 2009 found.

It's also the way your mouth moves when you sing that makes it such an effective way to transfer the virus. Vocologist Heather Nelson, who conducts a choir in Missouri in the US, says there are a few things going on. When you sing vowels the mouth is wide open so aerosols are completely unobstructed. When you sing plosive consonants like 'p' and 'b', a large puff of air is produced so large droplets are expelled. "Also, even amateurs sing louder than they speak so that increased energy means we are just going to spit further," Dr Nelson says.