Cororavirus Watch: Some Statistics

Covid - School Cases

Total new cases reported in schools – 6 September to 10 September
Pupils 53
School staff 2

24 of these cases had attended school that week. The other cases had not yet returned to their schools since the beginning of term.

Total new cases reported in schools – 13 September to 17 September
Pupils 38
School staff 3

Total new cases reported in schools – 20 September to 24 September
Pupils 47
School staff 6

It's too early to say but it does appear as if the cases of pupils is increasing slowly, whereas although the number of school staff is small, it is starting to look like an exponential rise, albeit in its early stages. At present, Deputy Scott Wickenden's strategy of balancing smaller numbers of contact traced against the wider school year groups seems to be paying off. The take-up of vaccines by the 16-17 year old age group - 47% first dose - is probably also helping.

Covid  - General Numbers

The 3 days of the weekend saw:

Seeking healthcare (symptomatic) 21

Travel 28

Admissions 0

Workforce screening 2

Cohort screening 2

Contact tracing 23

Total 76

Of course there is a period of delay before we would see any significant rise from the weekend festivities, but at present seems to have hit a plateau of around 230-240 cases, and one which has been remarkably persistent. The last 6 data points of active cases (today to past) are: 223, 233, 235, 239, 228, 216.

Vaccinations - Trends

Although the statistics download says "weekly", in fact the figures are given in intervals of 3 and 4 days. I've assumed for the purposes of rough calculations that a rate of take-up is a rate per half week. The figures show that the 18-29 year old take-up rate is poor compared to the 16-17 year olds.

18-29 years old:

From a peak in June of over 1,200 a week, with the odd high, this has been declining to around 26 down to 19 over the last 2-3 weeks.

10,399 first dose

68% first dose

This gives around 5,100 still to get their first dose. Even if the current rate increases to (say) 50 take up on first dose, and allowing for the fact that the datasets have an interval of 3-4 days not 7 days that still means around 50 weeks to complete all vaccinations. On a lesser rate of take-up per interval, probably a year and a half.

16-17 years old

1093 first dose

47% first dose

Again this distribution started high but has declined. However the last dataset shows

The last 6 data points (today to past): 26, 19, 19, 20, 60, 72.

This gives around 1,230 still to get their first dose.  The estimate on 50 per dataset would give 12 weeks to complete, and even on 20 new take-ups per interval will give 30 weeks.