Weathering Times: The Pros and Cons of Privatising Weather

The BBC Noted that:

Forecasters could be privatised A report says Jersey's meteorological office is among States departments which could be privatised. The Auditor General has investigated how efficiently the States are handling taxpayers' money. Christopher Swinson thinks Jersey Met's ability to sell its services to others is unreasonably constrained by being part of the States. The report also asks whether Jersey Harbours and the airport could benefit from being run more like private firms.

The actual report states:

136. In the course of the Spending Review, the position of the Meteorological Office was considered and, as will be seen from Appendix Three, it is suggested that consideration should be given to that office becoming independent of the States and in that position being encouraged to maximise the commercial potential of the services that it could provide.

137. In making this proposal, the purpose is not to question the judgement that it is valuable to the Island that local weather advice services are available. It is however to question: (1) whether those services necessarily have to be provided by the States; and (2) whether the location of an Office within the States can unreasonably constrain the development of its services with the result that the cost of the service to the States is higher than otherwise it need be.

It seems more likely that (1) is the question at the forefront, and it has occurred before in spending reviews; I definitely remember Tony Pallot making the case against the loss of the department some ten years or so ago.

For (2), it should be noted that no indication at all is given as to what this "unreasonable" constraint actually entails. It sounds good, but no indications are given of how a small and local private weather department could suddenly develop loads of profitable services - where is the market for these outside of the Channel Islands?

There may be one restraint, noted in the Jersey Airport and Meteorological Department - Service Level Agreement of 2007, which relates to this. It notes that:

However, to enable the Jersey Meteorological Department to satisfy agreements with the United Kingdom Meteorological Office on the exchange of the meteorological information necessary to provide the services described in this Service Level Agreement, it will not be permitted to knowingly supply aviation or other meteorological forecasts, data or information obtained under this Service Level Agreement to anyone, other than those concerned with the operation, or the undertaking of a flight originating from, terminating in or transiting the Channel Islands' area. For example, for the sake of clarity, it will not be permitted to provide forecasts to anyone for any other purpose other than aviation related purposes or to provide aviation forecasts to anyone intending to fly from, for example London to Paris.

http://www.gov.je/StatesGreffe/MinisterialDecision/EconomicDevelopment/2007/Service+Level+Agreement.htm?printfriendly=true

But it is not clear what the cost would be to obtaining the information from the UK if it was bought in, and whether it would be able to afford buying it without any restraints.

In order to examine this further, it is interesting that America has many private weather forecasting companies - A New York Times article notes that it is a bonanza business, with the State services providing only the raw data, and the trendy graphics and presentation of targeted forecasts coming from private companies which buy that data.

In Europe, however, the situation is very different. The New York Times summarises the difference:

''In the United States, it is thought that taxpayers pay for the data, so they [the private companies] should be able to get all the data. In Europe, it is thought that taxpayers pay for the data, so they should not be able to make a profit from it.''

The UK, of course, is still a government agency - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

One notable exception in Europe is Meteo Consult. In 1986, this became the first private forecaster in the Netherlands and was looking to package weather data for broadcasting, agricultural and energy companies. But the fees the company was charged by the Dutch Government were hefty. Indeed, today, with a staff of 16, it still has the Government as its major competitor. The Dutch agency provides forecasts tailored to specific business needs - for a fee. ''Sometimes the Government is cheaper, but we have to be more accurate,'' they said.

Meteo Consult's enterprise has its roots in the United States. The founder, Mr. Otten, who had worked for the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute as a forecaster and later as a television weatherman, took a year-long sabbatical at Pennsylvania State University. There, he consulted for Accu-Weather and came up with the idea of bringing private forecasting to the Netherlands. With trade barriers coming down in the European Community, Mr. Otten feels, governments will be less able to throttle private weather companies. The growth of private meteorology in Europe might be slow, but as Mr. Otten said, ''Accu-Weather didn't have 16 employees after its first five years.''

However, the report "Weather Data Commercialisation and the International Association of Broadcast Meteorology" paints a different picture. It notes that:

Historically, weather services within Europe have been provided by National Meteorological Services (NMS's), government agencies funded by the taxpayer who provided weather forecasts at little or no charge to the general public, frequently through the medium of the national broadcasting services. In the last decade or more, these NMS's have come under increasing pressure from their governments to increase the (non-tax) revenue they receive for the provision of forecasts. Side by side with this development has been the growth in Europe of a substantial private weather industry for the provision of forecasts to specialised users, including broadcasters. This private weather industry uses as its basic input weather information which has been collected, at the taxpayers expense, by the NMS's.

Yet another element in the problem has been the development of EU competition legislation, which gives the freedom to the provider of any service to operate anywhere within the EU. The NMS's have responded to these challenges in two ways:

1. They have banded together to from ECOMET, an economic interest grouping of European Met Services. This group has attempted to establish a common tariff structure for weather information that will apply right across Europe. It has also put into place regulations which will define the basis for competition between the private and public sides of the weather industry, and also for competition between NMS's, themselves, as each NMS is now allowed to offer forecast services outside its own national boundary.

2. EUMETSAT, the European weather satellite organisation, controlled by the same NMS's, has recently put into place the technology which will allow it to charge broadcasters and others for the use of weather satellite images which heretofore were available free.

It seems that it may be better in the long term for Jersey's weather service to ensure that it is part of Ecomet, and so benefit from (1) the "common tariff structure" and (2) be inside the economic interest grouping, as with current agreements with the UK.

In order to be viable, a private Jersey met department would need to buy in weather information from the UK, and sell it with a main user being the airport. As the Guernsey department puts it (http://www.metoffice.gov.gg/) "These days our "Raison d'être" is, of course, the provision of current and reliable information to Air Traffic Control in particular and aviation in general." There are really no other local suppliers of weather forecasts, and the market is both necessary but necessarily limited.

Before embarking on a rushed quick fix to save money quickly, one question is how much extra a company, designed to maximise profits for its shareholders, would charge. Would the Jersey government be able to exercise controls on the prices charged for services to the Airport? I do not see how this could sit easily with the idea of privatisation, the whole point of which is to let market forces have dominion. And if that goes, internal costs are saved, but the charge may be greater.

The recent report certainly highlights that costs should be considered, but in the absence of any controls by means of comparison, and observing the wider European scene, it is very unclear whether costs would be saved in the long term.



References
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0CE1DC1539F93AA2575BC0A966958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=2

http://iabm.org/policy1.htm

Amazon USA - Expensive but Quirky

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/images/B00067F1CE/ref=dp_image_0?ie=UTF8&s=miscellaneous

This link is to the JL421 Badonkadonk Land Cruiser/Tank

Yes, it is real! For ONLY $19,999.95, you can be the proud owner of a vehicle with the following specifications:

"The JL421 Badonkadonk is a completely unique, extremely rare land vehicle and battle tank. Designed with versatility in mind, the Donk can transport cargo or a crew of five internally or on the roof, and can be piloted from within the armored shell or from an exposed standing position through the hatch, thanks to special one-way steel mesh armor windows and a control stick that pivots up and down to allow piloting from the standing or seated positions. The interior is fully carpeted and cozy, with accent lighting and room for up to five people. A 400 watt premium sound system with PA is mounted to project sound both into the cabin and outward from behind the windows. The exterior is a steel shell with a rust patina, and features head and tail lights, turn signal lights, trim lighting, underbody lighting, fixed slats protecting the windows, and a unique industrial-strength rubberized flexible skirt that shields and protects the wheels to within an inch of the ground, while still allowing for enough flex to give clearance over bumpy and uneven terrain. "

I'd really love to see one on Jersey's roads!


But what if a month in the tank makes you very crabby and in need of serious relaxation. Why not try the Relaxman Relaxation Capsule for only $39,995.00

http://www.amazon.com/Relaxman-Relaxation-Capsule/dp/B0006MWV86/ref=pd_sbs_misc_njs_title_4

"Be the first in the U.S. to own one of the finest relaxation devices invented. Used in helath clinics all over Europe. Designed by the world famous Biotonus Clinic in Switzerland specifically for relaxation and stress reduction. The custom designed Relaxman is completely heat, light, and sound proof, providing total isolation for the ideal environmental therapy. Inside, the heated water mattress stays at body temperature while soothing, preprogrammed music and lights take you into a deep state of relaxation. Research shows that a 50 minute rest in the negative ion-enriched atmosphere effectively helps reduce tension, anxiety, depression and fatigue. Also helps combat jet lag and sleep imbalance. 10'L x 5'6"W x 4'6"H. Relaxman will be shipped from Switzerland to your door with separate charges to be estimated based on location."

http://www.amazon.com/Uranium-Ore/dp/B000796XXM/ref=pd_sbs_misc_njs_title_1

For a cheaper "odd buy", for only $29.95, why not buy a tin of uranium ore. Please note

We are always in compliance with Section 13 from part 40 of the NRC Nuclear Regulatory Commission rules and regulations and Postal Service regulations specified in 49 CFR 173.421 for activity limits of low level radioactive materials. Item will be shipped in accordance with Postal Service activity limits specified in Publication 52.

Party Names, Party Games

As Jersey is shortly to have a registration of political parties (a draft law is on the legislation website), and it follows the same rules on names, I thought I'd take a peek at the UK.

One difference between the Jersey Law and the UK one is that in the UK, an independent electoral commission looks after party issues, whereas in Jersey, what is acceptable will come under the eagle eye of the Attorney-General.

In the UK there is a list of acceptable and registered parties. Remember - the U.K. has pretty much the same naming rules as Jersey, ruling out obscene ones etc. But it still allows some pretty diverse names.

Will Jersey people have as much freedom under the rule of the Attorney-General? Will he take UK practice as precedent?

Enough of the serious comment...

Here are some interesting and some amusing names of valid registered parties.

For the whole list, just go online to

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk

Carmarthenshire Ratepayers' Association
Hadley & Leegomery Residents Association

These kind seem rather popular, residents or ratepayers association parties in a district. A "locality" independent party. Similar, but not quite the same are the "locality issue" parties, these include ones such as:

Southampton Save Our Services Party [The]
S O S! Voters Against Overdevelopment of Northampton
Stop! Durrington's Overdevelopment - Save Titnores' Trees
Save Bedford Hospital
Save Huddersfield N.H.S.

Maybe we could have a "Stop Building on Plemont Party"?

Then we come to the regionalist or nationalist parties. Apart from well known ones, like the Scottish National Party, we find smaller and larger regions:

Wessex Regionalists
Suffolk Together
Mebyon Kernow - The Party for Cornwall

Forward Wales
Free England Party [The]
Free Scotland Party [FSP]

"general" issue parties also feature:

Republican Party [The]
Referendum Party [The]

along with some very strange parties:

Red and Green Alliance Party
Virtue Currency Cognitive Appraisal Party
Dragon Party [The]
Dungeons Death And Taxes Party [The]
Fancy Dress Party
Personality AND Rational Thinking? Yes! Party
Idle Toad [The]

The last seems particularly well-fitted for Jersey!

Then there are a few specifically religious parties, although I'm not sure about the Elvis one!:

Islam Zinda Baad Platform
Christian Democratic Party
Christian Peoples Alliance
Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship"
Clause 28, Children's Protection Christian Democrats
Church of the Militant Elvis Party

and specific policy issues:

Cut Tax on Petrol and Diesel
Smokers U.K.
UK F.A.G.S.

"Remove GST from food" party - any takers?

By the way F.A.G.S. stands for "fight against goverment suppression" and has a website at http://www.uk-fags.co.uk/. It is an pro-smoking party, to do with cigarettes (just in case you wondered if it was gay rights!)

Then there are the "slogan" parties, one really wonders what their policies are apart from the slogan in their name (which may or may not tell you much)

Get Snouts Out The Trough
Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers
Vote Liberty Vote Freedom
Had Enough Party [The]
People Against Bureaucracy Group
Make Politicians History
Protest Vote Party
Veritas

I wonder what the Attorney General in Jersey would say to "Jersey Against Crooked Lawyers"!

Groups to do with older people:

Pensioners Party [The]
Pensions Action Alliance
Grumpy Old Men Political Party [The]

So we can have our own "Angry Men" party. Step forward Peter Tabb and co!

Then bygone age parties (or perhaps Latinists at school):

Imperial Party
Roman Party. Ave! [The]

Women's movements:

Mums' Army
women4theworld
mums4justice

No "Dad's Army", alas!

and of course, not forgetting, for odd parties, to make the list complete:

Official Monster Raving Loony Party [The]

Maybe we could have Official Crapaud Raving Loony Party?

Here in Jersey....

http://thetrinityinjersey.org/newsletter.htm?id=29

The latest Trinity in Jersey newsletter says:

Last week Hillary Clinton continued her campaign for nomination as the Democrat candidate for, arguably, the most powerful position in this world - ever. She is seeking to become President of the United States of America. In a speech Hillary explained graphically her only visit to Bosnia - she was in grave danger from sniper fire as the plane descended, had to scurry down the airport apron and the planned welcome party for her husband, Bill Clinton, President of the US had to be abandoned. Within hours a news video of that event was posted on the internet showing what looked like a normal welcome party on the tarmac with Hillary chatting happily with a small girl. Hillary explained that she "misspoke". The prefix "mis" means "bad" or "badly". She had spoken badly..... Unfortunately this was not the first time - for her or her husband.

Here in Jersey, such things would never happen.

I must admit that I was following the argument until that sentence, when I laughed out loud!

I don't know where the writer has been for the past six months, but it is painfully clear that in Jersey such things do happen all the time, and over the last year, more than I can remember for some time.

Or perhaps the writer meant that some politicians here may well deceive the public on numerous occasions, but, alas, unlike Hillary, they are rarely found out?

UK and Jersey - Party Registration

Regarding my previous post, I notice in fact that the UK has a six-word limit, and also requires the name to be in English, Welsh or Irish, with the requirement that names in Welsh and Irish have a translation which is also taken as a registered party name. So I was mistaken about that! A pity though that the Jersey law did not include any information about Jerriais, or translations as part of the name. Obviously not drafted by a Jersey-born person!

Some interesting differences between the UK and Jersey law - these are from the UK law:

The party address will be made public on the Commission's register of parties but other contact details will not.

I can't find this in the Jersey law!


2.3 Important: these controls apply only to the description used by candidates on ballot papers. The Commission does not regulate the descriptions used by candidates on their election material and advertising. A candidate could therefore stand as an 'Independent' while describing themselves in their election material as the 'candidate against closures', or stating that they represent the 'Quite Small Party'. The controls also do not apply to descriptions used by officials once elected. So, a number of councillors who were all elected under the description 'Independent' could call themselves the 'Imaginary Party group' in the council.

Nothing like this in the Jersey details, although it is common sense.

A registered party is allowed to register up to three emblems for use next to its candidates' names on a ballot paper (although it does not have to register any emblems at all).

Jersey restricts to one emblem!

On the constitution, unlike Jersey, no requiements:

3.39 There are no requirements about what a party's constitution should include. However, applicants may wish to include details of:
. the structure of the party (e.g. branches of the party, the party headquarters, organisations affiliated to the party)
. how the party is run (e.g. frequency of meetings, decision-making, appointment of officers)
. what officers the party has and what their responsibilities are
. membership requirements
. the party's aims and objectives


Unlike Jersey, The Commission will not retain the party constitution, once the party has been registered.

3.40 The Commission will not review a party's constitution except to crossreference the structure of the party with the financial arrangements outlined in the party's financial scheme. The Commission will not retain the party constitution, once the party has been registered.

Jersey Political Parties - and the New Law controlling them

http://www.jerseylaw.je/Law/display.aspx?url=LawsAdopted/Political_Parties_(Registration)_(Jersey)_Law_200-.htm

Are you aware that there is legislation in the pipeline regarding political parties in Jersey?

How it applies to loose coalitions of like minded people, I do not know. In fact, it is hard to see how loose coalitions on single issues (such as removal of GST from food) would constitute a political party.

But it seems to me that it is designed both to regulate against mismanagement, and to control the political process.

I think who ever drew it up should be referred to a therapist for counselling, as judging from its contents, they have serious psychological hang-ups on control issues.

Note, in particular, the following:

The party must have a name that does not exceed 6 words.

So no "Monster Raving Loony Jersey Party" then! Amazing that Britain allows such names, but Jersey is bent on controlling the names so much that they cannot allow it. The name must be vetted for approval too, just in case the powers that be do not like it. I cannot think of any restrictions quite as controlling as this in the UK.

The party must have a written constitution, one of the expressed objectives of which must be the endorsement of candidates for election as Senator, Deputy or Connétable.

Incredible that Jersey does not have a written constitution, but political parties must have. Incidentally, it suffers a charge of £1 per page in photocopying charges as part of the registration process; I suggest anyone submitting one uses Arial, 8 point or smaller.

The party must keep accounts.

A sensible measure against mismanagement, but why should parties have more restrictions than individuals? If parties can mismanage political expenses, so can individuals, especially with election spending? And is there enough of a "Chinese wall" to ensure that those opposed to the party cannot see all the details of the accounts?

Note, too that the registration of the party requires a fee to be paid.

A registered political party must not use or otherwise hold itself out as known by any name, or abbreviation of its name, other than the name or abbreviation (if any) that is registered for it.

Quite how the Conservative Party - otherwise known popularly as the Tory Party - or the Liberal Democrats - LibDems - would deal with this if it was in place in the UK is unknown. It seems a draconian measure invoked to restrict what parties are called, and ignores the way in which the public may well invent their own abbreviations which will become part of the common discourse. It reminds me more than anything else of how some French purists tried to stop the importation of loan words into French. It is, I think, completely unworkable. If the public discourse uses a nickname, there is a prohibition on the party using the self-same nickname? Sheer, unworkable madness, that could only come from a legal mind totally divorced from the realities of living in the real world.

The application must be signed by not less than 20 persons.

So much for the "Gang of Four" who broke away from the Labour party (David Own, Shirley Williams, Bill Rogers, Roy Jenkins)! Obviously this is a measure to stop Darius Pearce with his almost one-man "Jersey Conservative Party", but it seems unduly restrictive.

---

Selected parts of the Law for your perusal:

A LAW to provide for the registration of political parties who wish to endorse candidates for election as a Senator, Deputy or Connétable, and for connected purposes

2 Requirements for political party to be registered

(1) A political party may only be registered if it complies with this Article.

(2) The party must have a name that does not exceed 6 words.

(3) The name of the party, and any abbreviation of the name and any emblem of the party, must not be –

(a) offensive, obscene or otherwise inappropriate; or

(b) either identical to, or of sufficient similarity that it may be confused with, the name, abbreviation or emblem of any other organization.

(4) The party must have 3 officeholders, being the leader, treasurer and secretary.

(5) A person may hold 2 of the offices described in paragraph (4), but not all 3.

(6) A person cannot hold any office described in paragraph (4) unless he or she is registered as an elector under the 2002 Law.

(7) The party must have an address in Jersey to which communications intended for the party may be sent.

(8) The party must have a written constitution, one of the expressed objectives of which must be the endorsement of candidates for election as Senator, Deputy or Connétable.

(9) The party must keep accounts.

(10) The party must have an accounting period that does not exceed 12 months.

(11) The States may by Regulations amend, or make provision in addition to, paragraphs (2) and (3) regarding the restrictions on the name of a political party.

3 Restriction on name and emblem used by registered political party

(1) A registered political party must not use or otherwise hold itself out as known by any name, or abbreviation of its name, other than the name or abbreviation (if any) that is registered for it.

(2) A registered political party must not use or otherwise hold itself out as associated with any emblem other than the emblem (if any) that is registered for it.

4 Application for registration of political party

(1) An application for registration of a political party may be made to the Court, in accordance with this Article.

(2) An application must contain –

(a) the full name of the party and the abbreviation (if any) of that name;

(b) the emblem, if any, of the party;

(c) an address, in Jersey, for the purposes of Article 2(7);

(d) the full names of the leader, treasurer and secretary of the party.

(3) An application must be accompanied by –

(a) a copy of the party's constitution;

(b) a copy of the party's most recent statement of accounts;

(c) the fee payable for the application.

(4) The application must be signed by not less than 20 persons.

(5) A person can only sign an application if he or she is registered as an elector under the 2002 Law.

(6) The States may by Regulations amend, in paragraph (4), the number of persons who must sign the application.

5 Consideration of application for registration of political party

(1) The Greffier shall deliver to the Attorney General a copy of an application for registration of a political party.

(2) The Attorney General shall inform the Court whether, in his or her opinion, the party complies with Article 2 and the application complies with Article 4.

(3) The Court shall refuse to order the registration of a political party if the Court is of the opinion that the party does not comply with Article 2 or that the application does not comply with Article 4.

9 Accounts to be filed

(1) A statement of accounts in respect of an accounting period of a registered political party must be delivered to the Greffier within the period of 3 months following the end of the accounting period.

(2) The States may, by Regulations, amend the period within which the statement must be delivered, mentioned in paragraph (1).

13 Stamp Duties and Fees (Jersey) Law 1998 amended

In Part 1 of the Schedule to the Stamp Duties and Fees (Jersey) Law 1998, after item 32 there shall be inserted the following item –

"32A.	POLITICAL PARTIES (REGISTRATION) (JERSEY) LAW 200-
(a)	Application for registration of political party	£50	Application	Greffier
(b)	Application to change name or abbreviation of name of a registered political party or to register or change the emblem of a registered political party	£50	Application	Greffier
(c)	Copy of constitution or statement of accounts, per page	£1	Application	Greffier".

How to follow up a story

I came across this forum posting recently, entitled "Never on a Sunday: Paycard confusion!"

The writer comments that: "Some people who've been trying to park in St Helier on a Sunday have been left scratching their heads rather than their cards. A new residents' parking scheme in the Cheapside area of town is causing confusion. Unless you've got a permit you have to show a scratch card from 9 in the morning till ten at night. And that's everyday of the week including Sundays. There's a problem though. There's no Sundays on the scratch cards. Parking control say they don't patrol on a Sunday. The scheme's being run by the parish. They haven't commented."

http://www.vuedesisles.com/law-enforcement-f20/never-on-a-sunday-paycard-confusion-t725.htm#5956

Indeed, when I checked the TTS site, it notes that

To use a Paycard you have to scratch the silver coating off in each of the five sections to indicate the day, date, month and arrival time in hours and minutes.

 

http://www.gov.je/TransportTechnicalServices/Transport/Parking/paycards.htm

But checking up further with the Parish  (who are very helpful about providing information, and gave it promptly), it is revealed that all one needs on a Sunday are four sections (not five) to be scratched off in these residents parking zones (currently  St. Mark's and Cheapside) - i.e. day, time (hours, minutes, month).

 

There is a change in the law, covered by Amendment 22 of the St Helier Road Traffic Law which came into effect on the 1st. May 2008, which deals with all of this for these residential zones. Because it is so recent, you will not find it in the consolidated online laws yet.

 

The reason for the use of paycards on a Sunday is to dissuade non-residents from using the areas reserved for the residents parking zones (and for which residents pay for a permit), which seems perfectly sensible to me. 

 

TTS haven't updated their website (now there's a surprise!), but Wikipedia have:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_in_Jersey#Parking

 

It leads me to wonder if the original writer or the people scratching their heads had in fact bothered to check with the Parish authorities before rushing into print!

 

 

 

Past records: the Case of St Mary

Juliette Gallichan, Deputy for St Mary

"I am opposed to the 5% sales tax as I think it is disproportionately unfair to the lower paid. I am concerned that F&E say they will mitigate its effect on the poorer families by increased income support. This is not socially sound policy. Furthermore it will increase inflation, especially in the short term. It is expensive to administer and will require a new collection mechanism. Once in place it will be an easy matter to obtain more revenue by simply increasing the percentage, and this will not encourage Government to keep the emphasis on cost-cutting." (Senatorial Bi-Election 2004 interview to BBC)

Of course, she was one of those voting FOR the introduction of GST!!!

It is obvious that people do change their minds, but try as I might, I can't find any detailed apology from her and justification for why she did so. Perhaps she could comment on this site appropriately. "I admit that I was wrong when I said that. I have changed my mind since.", or words to that effect (and not the mealy mouthed kind of justifications that might have come from "Yes, Minister") - even if it was related to the introduction of GST - would be a good thing to hear from a sitting politician, especially with reasons given, a history of how she changed her mind. Better late than never.

Actions, they say, speak louder than words. But watch out, because your words may one day come back and haunt you!

On words, here is a useful word for today: "hypocrite". This comes from the 13th century Middle English ypocrite, from Anglo-French, from Late Latin hypocrita, from Greek hypokrites actor, hypocrite, from hypokrinesthai . It refers to "a person who acts in contradiction to his or her stated beliefs or feelings."

Good night and good luck

Good night and good luck (2005): A Review

(Now available on DVD)

---

"We will not walk in fear of one another. We will not be driven by fear into an age of unreason if we dig deep in our history and doctrine and remember that we are not descended from fearful men, not from men who feared to write, to speak, to associate and to defend causes which were for the moment unpopular. We can deny our heritage and our history, but we cannot escape responsibility for the result. "

This is a film set in the McCarthy era, telling the story of how Ed Murrow and his team of journalists took on McCarthy, and help to finished his communist witch hunt.

It is important today because it shows how someone like McCarthy can become important, and can feed on the fears in society, and fan the flames of prejudice, frequently with no evidence, only hearsay, and the use of a vicious polemic.

The lessons it teaches are wider than the era itself, and certainly in a world post 9/11, where there is fear in Muslim minorities in Western countries that they may be attacked for no other reason than their faith, or fear of those same minorities (who might be a secret terrorist sleeper?), it is necessary to say: do not react out of fear, do not look at others through a filter of prejudice. These are the preliminaries to peace, but they are only the first steps on the road to peace between all peoples of goodwill. Where there is a climate of fear, of people ranting against other people, it is still necessary to speak out, even if it means saying things which are uncomfortable; complacency too often is a cover for a false comfort that hides from speaking truth.

Murrow succeeded in stopping one witch hunt; but he paid a price. There were sudden staff cut-backs, his show was moved from prime-time to a Sunday afternoon slot, and reduced in number of programs. Victory against the forces of fear is never won easily.

This film, with its wonderful black and white photography, its marvelous use of light, and blues music punctuating the story, brings the time vividly to life; an age when cigarette smoke rose pervasively all around (wisps caught in beams of light). The documentary feel to it is precise; it does not make a chocolate coated confectionary, and for this the use of black and white is required; colour would make it seem too artificial.

David Strathairn is perfect as Murrow, George Cluny self-effacing as co-producer, Fred Friendly. The intercut real film of McCarthy blends seamlessly. This is also accurate to history. In his 1954 "See it Now" special, "A Report on Senator Joseph McCarthy" , Murrow did use excerpts from McCarthy's own speeches and proclamations to criticize the senator and point out episodes where he had contradicted himself.

It is a film that deserves to be seen wherever there is a climate of fear.

Previously, I had regarded the excellent, but underrated, TV biopic of Murrow ("Murrow", 1985) starring Dan Travanti as pretty definitive; it went from the war years (where he reported from London under the Blitz, with the catch-phrase "This is London." ) through the McCarthy era until his the cigarette-induced death. This new film is more precisely focused, but the sharper for it.

Incidentally, the catch phrase of Murrow used as the title of the film, and his sign off for his shows probably dates from his war years. Londoners in the Blitz used the phrases "so long, and good luck", and Princess Elizabeth, in a radio broadcast of 1940, ended with the words "good night, and good luck to you all." At the end of one of his 1940 broadcasts, Murrow ended with "good night, and good luck" and Ida Lou Anderson his voice coach, insisted he keep it.

When most cinema sets out just to entertain, this is a film with a difference, of which Murrow's own words are most apposite:

"This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire, but it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires and lights in a box."

---

The Moral Dimension

In "The Moral Dimension", a superb episode of Yes, Minister, a journalist has reports from France that a recent British contract in Kumran was won by bribery.

Press Officer: I must ask you to meet this journalist.

Hacker: Oh, yes, all right. What am I going to say?

Humphrey: I suggest attack is the best form of defense.

Hacker: Attack, attack, yes. Good thinking, Humphrey. Yes, got it.

Press Officer: Miss Jenny Goodwin from The Guardian.

Hacker: Do come in. Sit down, Jenny.I may call you Jenny, may I not? Now, what seems to be the trouble?

Jenny: The first is a story that was in the French press. It's about corruption in BES -
getting the Kumrani contract.

Hacker: Complete nonsense!

Jenny: They quoted reports of payments to officials.

Hacker: Really, this is absolutely typical. A British company slogs its guts out to win orders, create jobs! What does it get from the media? A smear campaign!

Jenny: If they won by bribery...

Hacker: There was no bribery. I had a full inquiry. All these payments have been identified. Commission fees, administrative overheads. Operative costs, managerial surcharges. Expenses, miscellaneous outgoings. We have looked into every brown envelope... ...every......every account book and everything is completely in order.

Jenny: I see.

Hacker: May I say one thing? Allegations of this nature are symptomatic of a very sick society for which the media shares the blame! I'll call on the Press Council to censure the press for its lack of professionalism in running this story. The Council and the House of Commons must be concerned about the standards which have applied in this disgraceful matter. Pressure will be brought to bear to make sure that this gutter press reporting is not repeated.

Isn't it interesting how both Frank Walker and Philip Bailhache have attacked the media in a very similar style to Hacker. It is clear that the media - the UK media - have born the brunt of the Liberation day speeches - "Liberate us from lies" indeed!

Of course, as we know from their statements, it is crystal clear the media have got it all wrong.

For this is real life, not Yes Minister, where, in fact, the minister, James Hacker, was using attacking the media as a means of diverting attention from the fact that something really had gone wrong behind the scenes.

Although I can't help having doubts....

Jersey Grovel awards 2008

Nominations are now needed for the annual Jersey Grovel Awards 2008.

These are awarded for the best example of groveling, fawning, sycophancy in a Jersey politician.

I'm starting the ball rolling by suggesting Deputy Andrew David Lewis, Deputy of St John. And due for election this November...

To set the scene, this takes place after the disasters of the Newsnight with Jeremy Paxman, and the fiasco of a press conference at St Martin's Public Hall. Not exactly Frank Walker's shining moments of glory, unless that is, you listen to what Mr Lewis had to say on the matter:

From the Jersey Hansard:

The Deputy of St. John:

Could I first begin by congratulating the Chief Minister on the superb way he has dealt with the media frenzy in the last couple of days. Will he be taking exception with the B.B.C. (British Broadcasting Corporation) over the technique that Jeremy Paxman used last night - the very biased technique he used - in interviewing the Chief Minister last night? Will he be taking this up with the B.B.C.?

Senator F.H. Walker:

Prior to the Newsnight interview, I have already taken up concerns with the B.B.C. that cameras were running when I was not told that that would be the case, and that breaches one of the basic ethics of the B.B.C. as I understand it. I have not yet decided whether I will be taking another complaint forward on the facts that Mr. Paxman totally misquoted me with his opening question and then refused to accept my answers to those questions. Whether or not I do that is a matter for some consideration. I fear that if I do I will make little progress in any event, but that is not necessarily a reason for not doing so.

http://www.statesassembly.gov.je/documents/hansard/44514-31776-1232008.htm

Conflicts of Interest: An Interesting Retrospective

An older story. The case of the defrauded investors, and Sinel's battle to get them compensation. What is interesting is the same themes arising, with regard to (1) the bias of the internal press (2) conflicts of interest with regard to the Bailiff's position (3) the dismissive kind of remarks that the Bailiff made then to the defrauded protestors.

I would note in fairness that the site in question tends to take a very polemic view against the Channel Islands as "tax havens" which I personally do not subscribe to. However, Sinel's letter is specifically related to a specific case, and improving the judicial system.

It also highlights in detail (I only give snippets, check the link for Sinel's letter the conflicts of interest which occur without a separation of powers. We hear a lot about it being important. This letter is important because it details what can happen - and did happen - if there is no separation of powers.

The JEP

Sinel addressed the matter of "free speech" and the media. He complimented the professionalism of the "external" media, but accused Jersey's only daily paper, the Jersey Evening Post, of not being objective and "points out that it is controlled by Senator Frank Walker, Chairman of the bank regulatory committee (the FEC/FSC) which, not surprisingly in Jersey, is also responsible for the promotion of the island's finance industry. "

The Bailiff

Among the many judgments and remarks he has given against the interests of the defrauded investors in the Cantrade Fraud, The Bailiff once dismissively referred to them as "a small band of protestors".

http://visar.csustan.edu/aaba/sinel1.htm

Sinel's letter on the subject notes:

It has long been the hallmark of civilised societies that the legislature and executive are kept completely isolated from the judiciary. It is not necessary for me to explain to you or any of the recipients of this letter why we need and indeed should have had a long time ago a separation of powers. It is perhaps easy for people in our position to assume that the public neither know nor care why this should be so. I am not a politician, however, 1 have had the opportunity over the last few years to discuss with many ordinary members of the public the defect in the Island's constitution to which 1 have just referred. Vernon Tomes had a landslide victory at the penultimate Senatorial hustings; one of the main planks of his election campaign was the separation of the judiciary from the legislature. One of the most important functions of the English judicial system is to prevent the oppression of the people by the government, clearly it cannot do so or be seen to do so where the very same individuals sit astride both horses, this is a very real matter of concern to ordinary litigants.

Then he gave a clear example of how this conflict of interest played out:

When the Finance and Economics Committee decided not to investigate Cantrade, a decision (which it has since maintained notwithstanding the fact that Cantrade has been convicted of criminal offences in relation to its forex dealings), it sought and obtained advice from the Attorney General. The Attorney General not only apparently advised the FEC not to investigate citing in part the fact that it would be a major undertaking to investigate a subsidiary of the Union Bank of Switzerland" but he continued to give advice to the Finance and Economics Committee whilst at the same time overseeing the purported investigation and prosecution of Cantrade in respect of the Plaintiffs' allegations of criminal offences arising from precisely the same facts which gave rise to the Plaintiff s request to the Finance and Economics Committee to investigate the activities of Cantrade.

The Attorney General's conflict of interest was at that stage at least to the Plaintiff's minds manifest and apparent. The continued attempted exculpation of the Finance and Economics Committee by the Attorney General is believed by the Plaintiffs', many of their investors and certain other third parties to have formed at least part of the motivation behind his alleged failure to prosecute inter alia Cantrade and its officers adequately or at all.

When the Plaintiffs' pointed out what they perceived to be the Attorney General's conflict of interest they were informed that in future the representation of the Finance and Economics Committee would be undertaken by the Solicitor General. Whatever comfort the Plaintiffs' might have derived from this development was rapidly negated by the actions of the Solicitor General which proved beyond per adventure, that not only was there no attempt at a Chinese wall internally, but that the files maintained by the Attorney General in relation to the prosecution of inter alia Cantrade were available to the Solicitor General who made free use of the information there available for the general purpose of defending the Finance and Economics Committee's failure to investigate Cantrade and for the specific purpose of attempting to demonstrate that the Plaintiffs' allegations of criminal malfeasance by Cantrade and Young were questionable.


Mr Hamon, whose name also crops up in connection with informal advice given to Jack Hydes in the Jervis-Dykes case, also makes an appearance, he read the minutes of a confidential meeting between Sinel's clients and the police:

I turn now to the actions of the presiding Judge Mr Hamon on that same date. Not only did Mr Hamon allow the Solicitor General to read aloud the minute of the meeting of 12th September 1995, but having had the origins of that minute explained to him, he went on to publicise same by including that minute in his written judgment. The Plaintiffs' and their advisers still fail to comprehend how this publication facilitated in any way the administration of justice. At that same hearing, Mr Hamon told the Plaintiffs' counsel [i.e. me], that 1 could not make submission which involved criticisms of the Attorney General and the discharge by him of the functions of his office.


Finally, Sinel comments on the Bailiff making a speech which also showed how the conflict of interest played out:

The culmination of the Plaintiffs' disquiet was a series of recusal applications founded initially upon the absence of a separation of powers and subsequently upon the content of a more than unfortunate speech given by the Bailiff to the Society of Chartered and Certified Accountants, on the 16th day of November 1996.

In a country where there was a de facto separation of powers it would have been inconceivable that such a speech would have been given by a sitting judge. One can argue as to what exactly the speech meant but the facts are undeniable. Namely that a sitting judge opined publicly in relation to criticism made of the Island, by Plaintiffs' in proceedings before its Courts, which proceedings were founded upon the same substantive facts which gave rise to the criticisms made of the Island. One can see why the head of Jersey's legislature might make such a speech but no judge should have done so.

The Casualty: A Parable

Once there was a care home, and from this home, a boy escaped. He had been beaten and abused in the home, and did not know how he was to go on. In his desperation, he tried to hang himself, but the rope broke, and there, by the side of the road, he lay huddled and wretched, curled up and sobbing, with a broken wrist.

Now it so happened that a senior civil servant came to pass that way, and as he drove by, he saw the boy, and recognised him, for over the years, he had dealt with the home in his capacity as administrator. And he had appointed the supervisor of the home, and had only recently written a fulsome letter praising him for all the good work that he had done, and he knew that the boy came from a troubled background. He was in a hurry to an important meeting of a local charity, and thought to himself that the supervisor would surely come in search of the boy anyway, and he was a good man, and would know the best way to deal with the runaway.

A little later in the day, along came a politician, in his expensive car, and he wound down the automatic window as he saw the boy. Then he thought of how the press might get hold of the situation, and politicise it, and how it would look bad that such matters could happen in care, and he might be a material witness in court. Only yesterday, afternoon, he had been having lunch in his club with the senior civil servant responsible for such matters, and he was sure that such abuses could not happen now. It was a matter for the police anyway, and was it not he, himself, who provided them with all the resources they needed to deal with such matters, and had declared that publically. So he wound his window back up, and drove on.

Then came a senior judge, and he was on his way to church, already late, and he saw the boy. He reasoned that he did not know if anything had happened, and if an investigation took place, then it would be his place to be involved, and deliver a balanced judgement, so that the truth would come out. And anyway, he would pray for the boy when he got to church, and the prayers of such a righteous man as himself would surely be heard. So he, too, drove on.

Finally, as the day was getting dark, a journalist, one of those derided as the gutter press, and not an Islander at all, came along in his scruffy car. He saw the boy, and gave him water to drink, made a makeshift sling, and took him along to the casualty department for his bruises to be tended, and his broken wrist to be mended, and left word and his number so that the boy and the department would know how to contact him; and he told the boy he would return to make sure he was cared for properly, and tell his tale publically if needs be, so that the injustices of the past would be brought to light.

Now answer this: who was the "good Samaritan" to the boy?

Paganism and sexuality

Are Pagans More Sexually Open?

My pagan friends suggest that they can be, and in debates I've seen usually Christianity comes in for a bashing. Actually matters are more complex than that. A few historical notes....

The ancient pagan world had many kinds of different beliefs and practices regarding sexuality.

According to Julian the Pagan Emperor, Attis was an orphan left by his mother on the bank of the river. He became a handsome youth, who was in love with Cybele who forbade him to love any other woman. Nevertheless, Attis fell in love with the river nymph Sangaria and had a sexual intercourse with her in a cave. Cybele made him mad, and during this time of madness he castrated himself. Then he was pardoned by Cybele, who caused him to ascend to the celestial worlds.

For the followers of Attis, the highlight of ritual worship for the elect, was to get into an ecstatic frenzy, and then practice self-mutilation of the genitals! One of the few accurate sources in Frazer.

Early Stoicism thought was that sex, like all things, should be in common, and this includes a rejection of marriage and the incest taboo. This changes in Antipater, Hierocles, and Musonius, who argue for heterosexual marriage as the norm. And by Seneca and Epictetus, the pagan Stoic ideal is the celibate male. In fact, where sex does occur, for Musonius and Seneca, it is only all right within marriage, and even then only for the purpose of reproduction.

Moving to early Gnosticism, sex is equated with death. It is part of the material world, and must be avoided at all costs. The later Cathars (of the Middle Ages), who also espoused a form of Gnosticism, saw the "pure" as those renouncing sex, and were vegetarians because they would not eat animals that procreated (except fish, whose method of propagation they thought was spontaneous!)

Returning to ancient paganism, for Plato, sexuality was characterized by mental frenzy as opposed to rationality (Republic 403). The only justification for sexuality to exist at all was for procreation. Therefore, all sexuality outside of marriage should be forbidden by law (Laws 838-9).

The Manichees - an eclectic pagan religion which drew on Gnosticism, Zoroastrianism/Mithraism and Greek paganism, named after its founder Mani, were like the Gnostics, believers that all sex, even in marriage including the birth of children was evil and sinful. Thus celibacy is best. It thrived between the 3rd to 7th centuries.

So I don't think one can blame Christianity for all the woes about sexuality; in fact, one could argue the case that a lot of Christian thinking on the subject was coloured by pagan philosophy, as can be seen by the way in which the "Song of Songs" was sanitised as an allegory, rather than taken as a literal description of erotic love.

The Closed Society

Walker defends 'secret' agenda By Harry McRandle, JEP

JERSEY'S government is less secret than many others elsewhere, says Chief Minister Frank Walker. The Senator spoke out to defend the approach adopted by the Council of Ministers in discussing matters in private session - of the 12 items on tomorrow's order paper, ten are on the part 'B', or secret agenda. Senator Walker argued that the Council's approach actually protects the public interest in many instances. 'We never keep things secret any longer than we have to,' said the Senator. 'I know there is a perception that we work behind closed doors too much. 'However, the press and public have much more open access to government information in Jersey than in many other places, including the UK.'

I came across this "secret agenda" or "closed" agenda to give it its proper name some time ago. At least we know what we are being excluded from, although some of it makes worrying reading. Some "closed items" which are debated (just so you know what is on the cards to come up sometime in the future, with my comments):

Thursday 8th May 2008
Haut de la Garenne - that's coming up regularly!

Thursday 24th April 2008
Importation of Cattle Semen - nice to know that's debated in secret! A matter of public importance, which we know has the Chief Minister's backing!
Housing Needs Survey - perhaps there is rather more poverty than they would like to let out
Environmental Taxes - watch for these sneaking in as stealth taxes

Thursday 27th March 2008
Esplanade Quarter Masterplan - Freddie's Folly, under ground and under wraps
Environmental Taxes - watch for these sneaking in as stealth taxes
Update on Skills Executive - that's so that when UK appointments are made, we don't know why! Or maybe they are brainstorming excuses for top uk appointments?
Haut de la Garenne - another secret review, what's so secret that the public can't know?

Thursday 6th March 2008
Constitutional Review Report - without public debate, maybe on the dual roles of Bailhache and Bailhache? And the results of the meeting with Jack Straw?
Imagine Jersey Report on Consultation Process - I can imagine why they'd try to hide this one!
Seat Belt Legislation - secret to spare De Faye's blushes?
Haut de la Garenne - another secret debate
Review of Licensing Laws - another sneaky change in the pipeline?

Thursday 7th February 2008
Machinery of Government Review - that's to do with Senators, Deputies, Clothier etc etc
Scrutiny Code of Practice - I see scrutiny can't get a look in on any measures involving their powers

Thursday 24th January 2008
Channel Islander Status in the EU - why this is a secret subject is beyond me
La Collette Hazard Review Group - don't think Simon Crowcroft would be happy about the secrecy here

Jersey Blogs

Another interesting blog at:

http://www.stateofjersey.co.uk/2008/05/predictable-start-to-demonstration.html

Came across these recent posts. Desmond Tutu has been speaking out on Zimbabwe, contrary to some bloggers I have seen who have questioned his silence. He has not been silent; he just hasn't been widely reported in the Western Press.

---

Desmond Tutu statement on Zimbabwe

Posted: Thursday, April 24, 2008, 15:20 (BST)

http://www.christiantoday.com/article/desmond.tutu.statement.on.zimbabwe/18310.htm

Zimbabwe is staring into the abyss. Violence is growing and the people are suffering greatly as a result. It is now vital that we all do what we can to calm the situation.

In particular I join the worldwide calls to stop the supply of weapons to the country - by land, sea or air - until the political crisis is resolved. It is obvious that supplying large quantities of arms at this stage would risk escalating the violence, perhaps resulting in the large-scale loss of life.

We should be proud of the African Trade Unions and governments who refused to let the most recent Chinese shipment off-load in their ports but China must now agree not to try and send these arms by air instead.

I join the South African church leaders in urging all governments to immediately start work at the UN level to agree a binding UN arms embargo as quickly as possible. In the meantime I hope that every country will agree to a moratorium on the supply of any arms to the country.

If violence flares further in Zimbabwe, those supplying the weapons will be left with blood on their hands. It is up to every country in the region and beyond to take a stand."

---

http://old.thejakartapost.com/detaileditorial.asp?fileid=20080507.E03&irec=2

Coalition to protect Zimbabwe

Desmond Tutu and Aryeh Neier, Johannesburg

Although the Chinese ship that was carrying arms to Zimbabwe, the An Yue Jiang, has reportedly turned back, we don't know where else President Robert Mugabe's military and paramilitary forces may be acquiring weapons.

In light of the escalating violent repression of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and of those whose support apparently helped the MDC to prevail in the presidential election, the results of which have still not been announced after four weeks an international arms embargo on Zimbabwe is urgently needed.

In addition, we call on the African Union, with the support of the United Nations, to send an investigative mission to Zimbabwe to determine what additional measures may be required to carry out the internationally accepted responsibility to protect.

The concept of the responsibility to protect was adopted unanimously by the UN World Summit in 2005. Yet, it remains controversial because it is often assumed that it implies the use of military force for purposes of humanitarian intervention. We believe, as was recognized at the UN World Summit, that military force should only be a last resort when needed to prevent or halt large-scale loss of life. The first step is to gather reliable information so that it is possible to know what international measures are required to prevent a disaster.

In the case of Zimbabwe, it is extremely difficult to obtain such information. Mugabe's regime has systematically shut down independent media, attacked independent civil society organizations, denied visas to foreign journalists, and has arrested and beaten journalists who nevertheless enter the country.

Foreign observers were present when the voting took place in Zimbabwe on March 29, and their presence helped to ensure that the election itself was peaceful. The observers have long since left the country, however, and the reports that have filtered out suggest that in some parts of the country, Mugabes opponents are now experiencing a reign of terror.

The Constitutive Act of the African Union provides in Article 4 the right of the Union to intervene in a Member State pursuant to a decision of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances, namely: war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity (as well as a serious threat to legitimate order).

Here too, however, actual military intervention should only be a last resort. In the case of Zimbabwe, for example, it is possible that sending in unarmed observers from other African countries would be sufficient. Their presence and ability to provide objective information might prevent continuation or further escalation of the violence of the last few weeks to the point where it would require military intervention. Unarmed observers could also help to ensure that emergency international food assistance, on which much of Zimbabwe's population now depends for survival, is distributed equitably, without regard to the political leanings of those requiring it.

Earlier this year, the African Union, through the good work of former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, averted a calamity in Kenya after a disputed election led to widespread violence. The danger in Zimbabwe appears to be comparable. Once again, the African Union, with the support of the UN, should provide the leadership that would demonstrate that Africa has the capacity and the will to resolve a great crisis in a manner that mitigates the suffering of African people.

Desmond Tutu is a Nobel Peace Prize winner. Aryeh Neier is President of the Open Society Institute.

"Faith" in the MMR Vaccine

A recent report in the JEP shows that parents in Jersey now have more faith in the MMR vaccine. I'd have more faith if I knew that:

a) adverse reactions were properly notified, the general health visitor response to raised temperature is to give calpol. No record is kept of such adverse reactions; it is just a verbal communication, lost to the system.

b) parents were given details of the batch numbers of the MMR vaccines. The record keeping back in the 1990s was certainly extremely sloppy, and if a parent wanted the details, they might actually be inaccurate, i.e., not tally with the vaccine manufacturers own details. I've never seen a health visitor note down the number, so this is hardly surprising.

Given this lack of data, it beggars belief that reports - based on statistical analysis of adverse reactions, and vaccines - can be trusted. If there is a rogue batch, how could it be tracked, given that there is no tracking, no policy on adverse side effects recording at all. "Faith" in this respect, seems more akin to the kind of religious belief lambasted by Richard Dawkins - such "faith" is powerful enough to immunize people against rationality.

Look at how different the situation is with the CHAT - the childhood autism "early warning" tests devised by Simon Baron-Cohen; if this flags up a warning, the child's development is monitored, and periodically reviewed. Nothing like that happens with vaccines, and adverse reactions, and the logic is that it is safe, and not required.

Incidentally, a recent report on the USA 2006 outbreak of mumps reveals that the vaccine does not necessarily confer much immunity - 63% coming down with mumps having had two MMR jabs. And because it has been bound up - for largely political and economic reasons in the USA, Canada, the UK, and Jersey (but not France, for example) - there is no single mumps only vaccine available to give a third "booster". Which leaves the health authorities in a quandary. Faith the MMR, it seems, may not give immunity after all.

Some of the scientists adopt the question begging approach, saying the situation would have been larger if the vaccine had not been given, or the outbreak more severe, but as there is no control group, that is pure speculation - especially as no reports have been made of more severe outbreaks among those who had not had the two MMR jabs, which surely would provide some degree of control group evidence. But surprisingly, no such detailed reports have surfaced, which is strange, if the hypothesis was more than rhetoric of people who simply didn't know why the vaccine had failed so spectacularly, and wanted to bolster the public's continual "faith" in the MMR vaccine.

"Faith", says Dawkins, "means. blind trust, in the absence of evidence, even. in the teeth of evidence"

Do you have "faith" in the MMR?

---

Jersey shows faith in MMR vaccine

Diane Simon

MORE parents in the Island have greater confidence in the MMR vaccine for their children, according to recently released statistics.

The uptake in Jersey of the vaccine against measles, mumps and rubella now stands at 86 per cent of those who are eligible to take it compared to 73 per cent in 2005.

Immunisation nurse specialist Linda Diggle said that the increase was mostly due to the effort that Health, GPs, school nurses and health visitors had made in answering parents' questions about the vaccine.

'Predominantly, parents in Jersey have shaken off the adverse publicity about the MMR vaccine in the last few years,' she said. 'The evidence is very strong that this vaccine is safe and the best way to protect children from these diseases.'

JEP Published 1/5/2008

---

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5jho73tvnoJ4y5V2ZCfimTXdmyvxg

A new U.S. study suggests the timing of the delivery of mumps vaccine or the number of shots given might need to be tweaked to avert or control future outbreaks of the disease.

The study, a report on a large mumps outbreak in the U.S. Midwest in 2006, revealed that 63 per cent of the people who came down with mumps had received the recommended two doses of mumps vaccine in childhood. That suggests waning immunity played a role in the outbreak.

But trying to shore up immunity to mumps into adulthood by delaying delivery of the second dose of mumps vaccine is not something immunization advisory bodies would opt for without more research and more evidence of need, the senior author of the study said in an interview.

That's because mumps vaccine comes mixed in a vaccine cocktail that also protects against measles and rubella, two diseases public health authorities view with more concern.

---

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Germs/story?id=4620377&page=1

But she did not contract and spread the disease due to her failure to receive proper immunizations. Indeed, like many of the other students on her campus who contracted the disease, she received the two-dose measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine when she was a child.

Now, new research suggests that the mumps outbreak that began early in 2006 — the largest outbreak of mumps in the United States in two decades — was probably due more to vaccine failure than the failure of people to get their recommended immunizations.

Researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention looked at mumps cases in the United States in 2006. They studied the 6,584 reported cases of mumps and found that in most cases, the vaccine from childhood no longer provided enough protection in adulthood.

The Law is an Obstructive Ass

Yesterday the Council of Ministers met and confirmed our fullest support for the Home Affairs Minister, the Police and our Criminal Justice authorities. (February 2008, Statement by Chief Minister, Frank Walker)


http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/apr/30/ukcrime/print

Just been reading the online Guardian page, where it is noted that:

At the states meeting yesterday it was also revealed that the law officers' department, Jersey's equivalent of the Crown Prosecution Service, had turned down requests by the inquiry team for search warrants. Police sources yesterday said they had been refused three times when applying for permission to search the headquarters of the sea cadets in St Helier, where abuse has been alleged. The search was eventually carried out with help from officers from the mainland.

A source close to Harper yesterday said he had been so "severely and willfully obstructed" in his investigation that he had come within "hours" of resigning. But the source stressed that Harper's retirement in August was unrelated and had been planned for some time.

Now who was it who said back in February 2008?

Whilst the Council of Ministers prime concern is protecting our current vulnerable children, our next priority is to ensure that anyone who has perpetrated crimes against children is identified and prosecuted. We have complete confidence in our Police, The Law Officers and the Judiciary. We know they will do everything in their power to ensure that the criminal investigations and any subsequent prosecutions are thorough, professional and totally impartial. (Frank Walker)

So much for the Law Officers doing everything in their power not to obstruct the investigation! I wonder what Frank Walker would say?

http://www.gov.je/ChiefMinister/StatementontheHistoricChildAbuse.htm

DNA, Behaviour Patterns and Ancestral Memory

I don't think there is a straight translation from DNA to behaviour patterns. Too many of the explanations for observed animal behaviour, particularly human behaviour, speculate how an adaptation could have evolved without considering how that explanation could be tested, and what results is a "Just So Story", albeit one heavily infused with scientific rhetoric - Steven Pinker's "How the Mind Works" is a good example of this.

Regarding "ancestral memory", Jung actually placed his "collective unconscious" very firmly in a Darwinian framework, which is often overlooked; it is instead seen as some kind of occult idea, which is mistaken.

The idea of common or collective archetypes comes from the fact that we share a common ancestry, and we have similar minds, so that (for instance) you can assume that the experience I have of thought, or self-awareness, is the same as yours because we have a common biological history. Jung's ideas about the mind are an extension of this.

Jung places the archytpes here as "conceptual matrixes" or "patterns" behind all our religious and mythological concepts, and indeed, our thinking processes in general, as they have evolved. So for Jung, there is a kind of "ancestral memory" in the way our mental processes have evolved, not quite an ancestral memory, but a commonality from the ancestral mind:

Quote:

The contents of the collective unconscious are represented in consciousness in the form of pronounced preferences and definite ways of looking at things. These subjective tendencies and views are generally regarded by the individual as being determined by the object -- incorrectly, since they have their source in the unconscious structure of the psyche and are merely released by the effect of the object.

In terms of recent scientific work done to verify these ideas, the book "ARCHETYPE REVISITED: AN UPDATED NATURAL HISTORY OF THE SELF (2002) by Anthony Stevens is a good introduction.

 

A Bold and Imposing Cliché

"A BOLD and imposing development will be 'wonderful' for Portelet's headland, according to the Environment Minister Freddie Cohen. One of Jersey's most beautiful bays is soon to be dominated by a large-scale scheme of 50 residential properties on the former Portelet Holiday Village site. Dandara, who got permission to build on the site more than two years ago, employed UK architect Sir Richard MacCormac to design the 45 flats and five houses." (JEP, 30.04.2008)

In fact, despite the blurb about "bold" and "imposing", the photo shows a very large set of buildings, which in no way blend any way with the scenery of Portelet, but stand out like a sore thumb. In fact, I can't find any pictures of anything designed by MacCormac in a rural coastal setting; all his stuff seems centered on cities and suburbs, which is hardly promising. Fine designs if you are building there, but not really suitable for a scenic Island coast.

It will certainly be "wonderful" for someone - Sir Richard, who will have another example of his buildings to lecture upon, Dandara, who appear to have managed to get this plan past Freddie by the captivating glamour of a big name in architecture, and Freddie, who will have made a name for himself in the record books with his planning decisions alongside the late John Le Sueur of St John, and his impressive attempts to enter the ranks of Private Eye's Pseud's Corner for jargon.

When words like "bold" and "imposing" are mentioned, I know I am entering clichéland, where the words are used for propaganda to bolster a counter-intuitive (and large-scale) style of architecture that clashes horribly with the granite surrounds of Portelet Bay. Whereas a nice granite facing might cost more, but would respect the Jersey coastline, and be in keeping with Jersey styles of architecture. Smaller scale buildings in Ouasne, for example, have had a requirement of granite facing to blend in with their surroundings, while up on a cliff-top, beneath a bay, in full sight from Noirmont, all these requirements have been waived.

Who said: "Planning - respecting Jersey's architecture. In recent years we have failed to respect Jersey's traditional architecture. We must ensure that our Island heritage is reflected in new buildings constructed. It costs no more to design and build well. "?

Methinks it was the last Cohen election manifesto.

Deputy Powerless

From the JEP:

http://www.thisisjersey.com/news/showarchive.pl?ArticleID=102008&year=2008&category=news

THE decision to tell the media that 'partial child's remains' had been found at Haut de la Garenne was inappropriate, according to Deputy Sean Power. He says that the police went too far when briefing journalists on 23 February after finding a skull fragment buried at the former children's home.

Am I unduly cynical, but is it because it is an election year that Mr. Power is suddenly becoming extremely vocal (having already come out with saying that we have to watch "internal enemies" as much as the UK press)? Now he is having a go at Lenny Harper, again with little or no understanding of police procedure.

It is standard police practice not to reveal everything, not to be misleading, but simply so that if witnesses come forward what they bring to the investigation is corroborating evidence, and cannot be dismissed on the grounds of "collusion" of witnesses with revealed data. If Mr. Power doesn't understand that yet, I suggest he tries asking a lawyer about it.

He also raises the subject of how they know the bone fragments come from a child, and cast skepticism upon this claim. Here speaks someone with clearly not the slightest inkling of modern forensic science and forensic archeology, who has not even bothered to ask how they know before speaking out. I suggest he tries looking under articles regarding measurement of bone protein and the like.

For instance, the article "Histomorphometric determination of formation rates of archaeological bone" notes that "Age-associated changes in bone histomorphology in extinct populations have remained essentially unchanged for at least 1,600 years. Bone formation rates determined for these populations agree with age-matched values determined for extantHomo sapiens."

In fact, as the article "Examining histology to identify burned bone" explains, it is possible to also use "examination of the microscopic internal structure" to distinguish burned from unburned bone.

In the case of the Taber child, measurement of bone protein was used to determine that that 4,000 old (radiocarbon dated) came from "fragments of a human infant skull"

Some bedtime reading on forensics would do Mr. Power no end of good, and may prevent him from engaging his mouth without having first applied his brain, instead of trying to scapegoat the police, "internal enemies" and the UK media, for historic (and fairly recent) failings in the child care system. Of course that won't get him on the front page of the JEP, but it might lead to more informed questions being asked when necessary.

For instance, he might also asking about whistle blowing mechanisms, and consider reading my notes on the huge Wale child abuse scandal, and considering how important the appropriate mechanisms for whistle blowing were considered by the eminent knight producing the government report recommendations (http://tonymusings.blogspot.com/2008/04/tu-quoque.html). I am watching to see if Andrew Williamson produces anything half as good for the States.