The Power of a Blog

Is it just a strange coincidence?

 

Stuart Syvret's blog publishes transcript of interview from Lenny Harper, naming two politicians who went to see the Attorney-General about someone he was about to charge. After some guessing games, the names of the politicians are "outed".

 

The following day, the JEP publishes a comment from them saying they had done nothing wrong in taking up the case of a parishioner (the accused's brother)

 

Stuart Syvret's blog has a section on guessing which letter by the JEP is a fake. It is a letter by a B. Riantz of Clarendon Road. A comment exposes this as a fabrication - the manager of the flats knows there is no one of that name there.

 

The following day, the JEP publishes a statement to the effect that it has come to their notice that B. Riantz is a fake, and no one of that name lives at that address.

 

The power of a blog - a pity the JEP couldn't be proactive rather than reactive.

 

 

 

 

All I survey

http://www.thisisjersey.com/2008/09/27/what-you-think-of-the-states/

The JEP have gone to bona-fide pollsters, and the result is a survey which is "what you think of the States?"

There are two good things about this survey. It is:

a) random

Not self-selecting like the usual JEP or online poll. The problem with polls which ask people to phone in is that they are not representative of the Island as a whole, only of those people who want to reply, and may even count people twice or more. Remember the JEP phone poll on yes / no to tall buildings on the Waterfront where an automated phone system managed to clock up thousands of "yes" votes! Blog polls are the same, as they depend on checking IP addresses. Most businesses have fixed IP addresses, but the average home user is allocated an IP address (via their provider) from a pool when they connect to the internet, and can cheerfully vote each time they go on-line. I once added 30 extra votes to an on-line poll to test this.

A random poll has the advantage over this in that it takes a sample of people regardless of whether they would vote on an online poll or not. If you think "I have not been asked, and I didn't know where to find the poll", that is because the pollsters are doing their job correctly.

b) stratified by age

"Stratified" is a technical term for the JEP's own description as "posed to a sample of Islanders which was weighted according to the age profile of the electorate". That means that the pollsters get information on people's age and adjust the results in a number of possible ways to match the electorate. More accurately this poll uses a "stratified cluster" because it needs to group ages in bands.

General Comments

One way - the simplest - of doing this kind of stratified random poll is to ask the age, then discard those once you have too many for an age group. This is called "proportionate sampling" where the strata sample sizes are made proportional to the strata population sizes. For example if the first strata is made up of males, then as there are around 50% of males in the UK population, the male strata will need to represent around 50% of the total sample.
 
Another - and probably that used -is to get the results but adjust them in each group so that they match the age profile. This is the cheaper option. This is called a "disproportionate method", where the strata are not sampled according to the population sizes, but higher proportions are selected from some groups and not others. The results are then weighted to bring them to the proportions required.

As a simple example, suppose in an office complex, there are 1000 staff, 40% male, 60 % female.

We could poll 100 people in our sample, making sure there are 40 males, 60 females.

Or we could poll 100 people, and if we get (say) 45 males, 55 females, then we adjust their votes accordingly, by multiplying each part of the results by 40/45 and 60/55 to give the sample the same weighting as the original population.

Problems with the JEP survey

This works quite well, but several deficiencies are apparent.

Firstly, this is not the only way in which sampling can take place. While there may be little or no difference between male and female votes, by taking age alone, this excludes that. More importantly, it excludes different economic strata within Jersey, which is at least as likely to be representative of satisfaction with the States as age groups. I would say this is a pretty major flaw.

Secondly, this method can lead to overcompensation if there is large disproportion between the profile of the sample and the profile of the population. In our example, if they asked 10 males and 90 females, the male vote would be weighted at 40/10, the female by 90/60. This means that our 10 males are representing all the 400 males in the organisation, and even allowing for weighting it is clear this means their opinions can be disproportionate. The large the sample, the less likelihood of error - but that leads to the next problem..

Thirdly, we are not told how large the sample size is. Doubling sample size reduces sampling error by half. Along with this there is a lack of figures for sampling error, which can be expressed as a percentage range of how accurate responses will be in representing the population as a whole.

Fourthly, we are not told how the survey was conducted. Sampling is notoriously difficult to do properly because of what is termed "coverage error" which occurs because a sampling method excludes members of the population. For instance, a phone survey will not pick up on ex-directory people. The time it is taken may exclude workers, or shift-workers. Stopping people in the street only gets the people who live in that street. Mail surveys may get non-responses.

All told, the JEP survey leaves a lot out!

 

Spin and Statistics

http://www.thisisjersey.com/2008/09/27/75-increase-in-burglaries/

"75% increase in burglaries" screams the headlines.

POLICE are urging Islanders to lock doors and windows after the number of house burglaries soared by 75% this summer. A total of 150 homes have been burgled since May compared to just 86 during the same period last year.

This is a perfect example of what Darrell Huff called "How to Lie with Statistics". Of course, any burglary is bad, and I'd hate to be burgled, but let's look at the real figures.

Assume - and there are more than that - a mere 20,000 households in Jersey - flats, betsits, houses.

86 / 20,000 = 0.43 %
150 / 20,000 = 0.75%

Now recast the text as:

Burglaries sour up from 0.43% of dwellings to 0.75% of dwellings!

Not quite as impressive, but in fact more representative of the true picture. When you have small numbers, 86, 150, a jump can seem like a lot if expressed as a percentage.

Wicca, is at the moment, for example, often described as "the fastest growing religion" simply because it is expressed in percentage terms like this, taking one figure as a percentage increase on the other.  It sounds good, but all it really means is that it actually has a quite small membership, so that any increase features heavily. If expressed per head of the population, the figures rapidly reduce in significance.

It is a pity the JEP didn't ask the statisticians doing the survey (more on that later) for advice before working out the figures and coming out with a headline that is needlessly alarming.

What you think of the States.

A wonderful goof in the JEP on Saturday, where the report "What you think of the States" carries forward onto page 2, where you read - under the same headline repeated, with "cont. from page 1" that "the same expert judges return to whittle down the contenders to a shortlist of nine".

 

Expert judges judging the States? What can be going wrong?

 

It's all down to a proof-reading failure, of course. The correct continuation goes under the headline - also from page 1, continued on page 2, "Search is on for Island Heroes". The JEP has goofed and put the wrong columns under the headings, muddling the two up.

 

But just imagine - the third article on page 1 continued on page 2 was "Burglaries Soar". So you could have had on page 2 this wonderful muddle:

 

What do you think of the States (cont. from page 1)

 

Police have urged islanders to ensure that their doors and windows are locked and that their valuables are not left on display.

 

I've always wondered about our States members! This is obviously the new way they intend to fill the "black hole"!

 

Alan Maclean - The Deputy's Mandate

http://www.alanmaclean.co.uk/

I found his site, and curiously, it still says "Please vote me in for DEPUTY ST HELIER DISTRICT NO 2".

That's interesting, because it means we have a benchmark to judge what he says now by what he promised 3 years ago - at least until he amends it. Here are a few of them, with a note of how effective he has been:

I was one of the organisers of the Black Tuesday silent protest in Royal Square that rallied some 2,000 people. The protest was organised to help persuade states members to focus on cutting wasteful states spending before increasing tax.

Taxes up - so not much success there, and see how this expands in detail below.

My principal aims, if elected, are to ensure that the 20% means 20% tax proposals are cancelled.

20 means 20 is still with us, I'm afraid. I'll return to that in more detail.

A responsible government should have a clear policy on the environment including incentives, such as tax breaks, to encourage us all to be environmentally aware.

No sign of those tax breaks yet, either. Not a single private members bill taken to the States on that account!

Government Reform: The Clothier report did not properly address Jersey's unique democratic style of government. I believe that the Deputy's mandate is not democratic and that any politician representing the Island should be elected with an Island wide mandate. There are too many States Members but the Clothier proposal to reduce the number to the low forties does not go far enough. Fewer politicians with appropriate pay to reflect their role, success and hours worked (full or part time) would ensure the best possible quality of candidate to represent the Island. I do support the Constable's role in the assembly.

This was a muddle then - any politician representing the Island should be elected with an Island wide mandate - so no Deputies. I understand the logic of that, but then he says, "I do support the Constable's role in the assembly." which completely contradicts that - they have a Parish wide mandate.

Not seen much progress on the Island wide mandate stuff either. On 26 September 2007, 2007 P98/2007/ - Deputies - extension of term of office to 4 years P98/2007, he was quite happy to vote in favour of this and retain the status quo.

The Economy: We need a strong and diverse economy in order to maintain and improve our standard of living. In recent times we have come to rely too much upon the finance industry.

Parish Rates: The level of rates are too high in St Helier although steps are being taken to address this situation with a division between residential and commercial assessments. The burden needs to be shared more evenly and one way in which this could be done is for the States to pay rates on their buildings. The fact that rates are not paid on most States buildings despite the fact that they still benefit from the same parish services also distorts the real cost of government and deprives the parishes of much needed funds.

A Simon Crowcroft supporter then?

GST - We must ensure the less well of are protected. They are the most affected from this new tax and we must ensure that the proposed low-income support scheme provides the desired protection. Medicines and medical services should be exempt as well as children's clothing. We must ensure that the 3% rate is maintained as a maximum.

Ahem, ahem - children's clothing exemption. Don't remember much speaking out for that. But when it comes to voting!

25 October 2006 P86/2006/ Goods and Services Tax - exempt or zero-rated items - paragraph (g) children's clothing - voted against! When it came up again on 10 September 2008 (P103/2008/Amd (2)) which would have made school uniforms exempt only, he voted against exempting school uniforms. A man of consistency, but not one which tallies with his election promises!

20% means 20% - I support the fact that this has been delayed for twelve months in the recent budget proposals and would fight for an indefinite delay until the success of other cost saving measures have been assessed. In particular I want to see further savings made by the states before anymore tax rises are agreed. Cutting spending does not mean cutting jobs, there are many in-efficiencies where significant savings can be achieved. Greater independent scrutiny of all states expenditure is required. If this is done properly I do not believe that there will be any need for the 20 means 20 proposal.

Sorry, Alan, you didn't manage the "indefinite delay" after all. In fact, you were not even present when the debate took place.

18 July 2006 P58/2006/ Income Tax allowances, reliefs and exemption thresholds ("20 means 20")- reference back NOT PRESENT
18 July 2006 P58/2006/ Income Tax allowances, reliefs and exemption thresholds ("20 means 20")
NOT PRESENT

There is a problem with serious vandalism and anti-social behaviour from a minority of young people. This causes a great deal of distress to the elderly who feel at times like 'prisoners' in their own homes. One way to redirect the destructive energies of the young is into organised recreational activities and facilities within the parish.

Voting record - Waterfront Skateboard and Youth and Community Centre, 27 February 2008. Proposition P8/2008/Re-Issue. Alan's Vote - Contre - against.

The Millennium Town Park: The Town Park was an agreed States Millennium project in 2000. Since that time progress has stalled. I strongly believe that The Town Park should be a dream that is now realised as a much needed regeneration project for St Helier No 2.

Still dreaming......

Referendum Trivia

The "changing hour" brigade are trying to get into full flow with their hugely distracting referendum on whether the hour should change. "Just think", said Jim Perchard, on BBC Radio Jersey, "of how an extra hour of light means you could be outside, having a barbeque".

 

If the recently falling temperatures are set to continue - hardly surprising as we approach October - and watch for those gales - I'm not really sure there are going to be that many people sitting outside.

 

But when you come in, you can always stay up to 11.30 for the Channel News after the ITV News at 10.00 (UK Time).

 

Or maybe they'll bring back Jacques Durand for his news in French as that was the time he used to be on Channel TV. "Bon soir," he always used to say, and I'd reply "Bon nuit", and turn the TV off. Those were the days  - nostalgia warning - when Channel signed off with an extremely young looking Queen Elizabeth from 1957 on horseback and the Royal Anthem (even up to the 1980s). After which there would be a blank fuzzy white screen, and a high pitched whine.

 

And remember - an extra hour of darkness in the morning means an extra hour of ground frost, black ice, or snow before the sun can rise up and start to melt it. By which time, if the hour changes, everyone will have to be on the roads.

 

It will be ok for Jim, though, because his tractor will run in all weathers!

 

Stream Fayre - Autumn 2008

Went to the steam fayre last weekend, at the Pallot Steam Museum, and have some video clips.

The playlist is can be found at:

http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=C2D7D205FD93A297

The clips are quire short, so the easiest way to view them is to open the playlist, and click on "Play All Videos" (right hand side)

If you missed the race between the trains, it can be found in the playlist of the Liberation 2008 steam fayre. This one also includes a brief clip of the inside of the fire box on the large train.

http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=774AD00EDB515F49

and finally, an old poem I wrote on the subject, and yes, it is true, my grandfather did catch the train!

Steam Fayre

The train is waiting on the platform
Steam building, waiting for perform
A chance for us to enjoy once more
Days of railways from long before

Once this train ran from the town
All day long, sunrise to sundown
To the Eastern reaches of Gorey
Beneath the castle that we still see.

But carriages were pulled another way
By a train upon the Western railway
To Corbiere point, to see the coast
The lighthouse that was westernmost.

Those days are long since gone, the East
Taken by land owners when it ceased
The West remains in part as walking path
A legacy of the closure and its aftermath.

But now we sit in carriages once more
Just like my grandfather in days of yore
The ticket inspector punches tickets, then
With a whistle, the train is off again.

Just twice round this short track today
At the Steam Museum, time's delay
To enjoy the rattle of train on track
A memory to enjoy, take back.

19.09.2004

Common Sense

I offer nothing more than simple facts, plain arguments, and common sense . . ." - Thomas Paine

Just been listening to the first part of "A life of Thomas Paine", dramatised for BBC Radio 4 by by Trevor Griffiths. It is a fantastic production, and is part of my scheme to educate myself better in American history. After all, it is not as if there is a huge amount of it compared to British History!

I am also reading my way through Walter Lord's "The Good Years", about the period 1901-1914, which saw some extraordinary events, including the great earthquake that struck San Francisco in 1906, the panic on the banks (nothing new there!), and the Wright brothers first powered flight.

I also saw the film "The Good Shepherd", about the birth of the CIA, although it is a fictional account in many respects. The central character, Edward Wilson, played by Matt Damon is absolutely and ruthlessly committed to his countries cause, and it is to see in this both the roots of the McCarthy witch-hunt, and the almost messianic belief of George Bush in the rightness of America's cause, whenever it intervenes. It was also unclear whether Damon's cold and expressionless manner was deliberate, or just the way he acts.

But back to Tom Paine, who had a number of fallings out with the American founding fathers, not least because he was against slavery even back then. Here are some very good quotes from his book "Common Sense":

"Society is produced by our wants, and government by wickedness; the former promotes our happiness positively by uniting our affections, the latter negatively by restraining our vices. The one encourages intercourse, the other creates distinctions. The first is a patron, the last a punisher. Society in every state is a blessing, but government even in its best state is but a necessary evil."

That is of course not just Paine's opinion. C.S. Lewis was also of the opinion that democracy was the best form of government because all governments tend to go rotten at their heart:

A great deal of democratic enthusiasm descends from the ideas of people like Rousseau, who believed in democracy because they thought mankind so wise and good that everyone deserves a share in the government. The danger of defending democracy on those grounds is that they're not true. And whenever their weakness is exposed, the people who prefer tyranny make capital out of the exposure. The real reason for democracy is just the reverse. Mankind is so fallen that no man can be trusted with unchecked power over his fellows.

Another quote of Thomas Paine's rings true so many times....

"A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom."

BBC Drama Cast list:

Tom Paine ...... Jonathan Pryce
Benjamin Franklin ...... Alan Howard
Thomas Jefferson ...... Ken Cranham
Governor Morris ...... Robert Glenister
Marthe Daley ...... Kelly Hunter
George Washington ...... Philip Jackson
Rittenhouse ...... Jack Shepherd
Sam Adams ...... Paul Jesson
Joseph ...... Nick Rowe
Lafayette ...... John McAndrew
Mrs Downey ...... Marcella Riordan
House Speaker ...... Hugh Ross
Will ...... Kwayedza Kureya
Lotte ...... Julia Reinstein
Music by John Tams.
Directed by Clive Brill.

Street Talk

"Street Talk" in the JEP was most amusing the other day, featuring an article all about "Gentle Denistry".

 

There was the bold headline, in all its glory, about a size 14 font!

 

I am sure the dentists in question would have been mortified to learn that their hard-earned cash was being spent on advertising how badly they could spell.

 

I don't know what "gentle" dentistry is anyway, and it sounds a bit like a confidence trick - I have yet to come across a dentist who didn't use drills somewhere in their dealings with tooth decay before putting a filling in. But I've never heard of "denistry before now.

 

Anyhow if you want "gentle denistry" whatever that is, you should contact the "Street Talk" people. Who knows what they may come up with next? "Genital dentistry", perhaps?

 

 

 

Another hotel going?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOZPtEDHEV4

This is a video of St Brelade's Hotel. A lovely hotel, run by the son of the late owner, and always full of flowers in the summer months. My great-grandfather use to drink there - and I am told drank away a not inconsiderable amount of farmland!

Since the owner died, the hotel ownership has passed to three children, one of whom runs it as manager, and the other two live in the UK. The one over here would like to buy the others out, and has made a very reasonable offer - but, of course, it cannot compete with what the developers (always waiting in the wings) are prepared to offer, for developing the building as luxury flats, or for demolishing and putting something else in its place. Either way, the hotel will be gone for good, and as old postcards show, it has been in the bay for many years.

It is a pity we can't have a "sea zone", like the green zones, to protect hotels close to the sea, always popular for tourists, especially in a bay like this. Once gone, they won't return, and countless ones - the Bryn-Y-More along the La Haule to Beaumont road is another - they won't be back again. The St Brelade's Bay hotel is commercially viable - but worth more if developed and sold as housing. What a shame that would be!

Election 2008: A family man

"A family man" has become one of the sloppy adjectives trotted out by journalists when describing any public figure, and it rarely has anything to do with how they may behave in general, let alone to their family. It is a shorthand way of saying - a good person - which used to be performed by the adjective "Christian" around 30 years ago.

Now we live in a more secular age, so it is harder to find adjectives which can do the trick, and suggest some kind of devoutness. But as we have "family values" - another loose and extremely poorly defined ethical marker - so now we can also have "family man", another meaningless piece of lazy journalese:

"The proposer said that 35-year-old Mr Tindall was a family man who had the full support of his wife Julie, who is a trademark expert."

" A family man and Chair of Governors at Haute Vallee School..."

"I am a Jersey born, happily-married family man with three daughters..."

Sir Peter was a great family man who was devoted to his wife and children.

In his essay "The Sermon and the Lunch", C.S. Lewis recalls a vicar who was preaching on "the family", and who said:

And so the home must be the foundation of our national life. It is there, all said and done, that character is formed.. It is there that we retreat from the noise and stress and temptation and dissipation of daily life to seek the sources of fresh strength and renewed purity.

Lewis comments that "The sermon, for all practical purposes, was over; the five minutes for which the preacher continued talking were a total waste of time- at least for most of us." Lewis noted how, from his own experience at the vicar's house for lunch, prior to the service, the vicar kept interrupting the other members of the family, the children were at odds with their father, the father raised his voice, the mother got hurt feelings, the daughter got sarcastic. "Then a few hours later he spoke on how wonderful family life is."

He [the Vicar] keeps on talking as if "home" were a panacea, a magical charm which of itself was bound to produce happiness and virtue. The trouble is not that he is insincere but that he is a fool. He is not talking from his own experience of family life at all: he is automatically reproducing a sentimental tradition- and it happens to be a false tradition. That is why the congregation have stopped listening to him.

But this sentimental and false tradition is still alive and well in the world of the cheap sound-bite. Michael Shermer, in In "How Thinking Goes Wrong: Twenty-five Fallacies That Lead Us to Believe Weird Things" notes how often it is trotted at to show the reliability of someone, a reliability which is misplaced.

Farmer Bob in Puckerbrush, Kansas, may be an honest, church-going, family man not obviously subject to delusions, but we need physical evidence of an alien spacecraft or alien bodies, not just a story about landings and abductions at 3:00 A.M. on a deserted country road.

After, all, as a another headline noted, the "family man" can be a cover for all kinds of nastiness lurking beneath the surface:

A HIGHLY respected 'family man' who engineered ten operations to import nearly £50,000 worth of drugs into Jersey has been jailed for nine years.

and in a recent book, "The Himmler Brothers: A German Family History", we are told that:

"Heinrich himself emerges-not a lone evil executioner, but a middle-class family man, loved and fully supported by his respectable German family."

So when someone says to you (wanting your vote) they are a "family man", why not say "Like Heinrich Himmler, you mean?" And don't vote for them. Anyone who thinks that such a spurious argument can sway a voter is capable of anything. If they certainly don't bother to think about what they are saying, how will they make up their minds in States' debates?

Links

http://www.positiveatheism.org/writ/sherm3.htm

http://www.amazon.ca/Himmler-Brothers-German-Family-History/dp/0230529070

Lewis, C. S. (1970). God in the dock: Essays on theology and ethics, (ed. by Walter Hooper). Grand Rapids, Michigan: William B. Eerdmans Publishing Company.

Changing Costs and Goal Posts

http://www.thisisjersey.com/2008/09/19/over-%c2%bdm-to-be-spent-on-jerseys-image/

A MOVE to give the Chief Minister's department over £570,000 to improve the Island's international image was approved by the States yesterday. Politicians voted by 33 to 13 to endorse a plea from Chief Minister Frank Walker for money for a range of new positions - including a £50,000-a-year 'change officer' position to oversee a programme to increase States efficiency. Senator Walker proposed an amendment to his own Council of Ministers' spending plans seeking funding for positions that also included a part-time media adviser based outside the Island. Another part of the package was £100,000 a year for a social policy development executive and also £70,000 for a deputy to the Emergency Planning Officer.

Hang on a moment, wasn't part of the remit when Bill Ogley was appointed Chief Officer to the Council of Ministers that he had successfully been involved in a local government change programme, and he was ideally suited as a candidate for the change to ministerial government because he had experience in "managing change", and making efficiencies when it came to "joined up government" (as he had done in local government)? That was part of the selling point of his appointment in all the press releases at the time.

A few years down the line, and Mr Ogley is clearly too tied up with other matters and needs someone else to do part of his job. The goal posts have moved! Isn't life wonderful! A pity the £50,000 couldn't be taken from his salary to cover it.

States Strategic Plan

Some interesting statistics out of the States Strategic Plan (also known as the pre-election publicity splurge for ministers because of its interesting timing!).

http://www.gov.je/ChiefMinister/Strategic+and+Business+Planning/ProgressStatesStrategicPlan.htm
Even by their own internal assessment, Transport and Technical Services has a damming rating of 20% off track, and 50% on the amber (delays) category, mostly due to funding failures. I'd be hugely surprised in Guy de Faye retains his post even if he retains his seat, but I don't think it is entirely his fault, although his attitude doesn't help.

Some of the tick boxes seem a little out. For instance:

In 2006/7 investigate the feasibility and potential efficiency savings of providing regulatory services in partnership with Guernsey and report back to the States (CM)

That is ticked as "completed", but the outcome is rather paltry.

Various potential initiatives were raised by the CoM with Guernsey's Policy Council, none of which the Policy Council wished to pursue. This will be revisited later in 2008

If it is being "revisited", forgive me for being thick, but it doesn't really seem completed, does it?

This one is also important, and incomplete, but ticked off as complete:

In 2006 engage the relevant authorities in France, through appropriate channels, in discussions, and, in 2007 or earlier, bring forward measures to provide improved communication in relation to the nuclear activities on the Cotentin peninsula and compensation arrangements in the event of a nuclear accident (CM)

And the result:

Close links on emergencies planning and notification of incidents established between Emergency Planning Officer and authorities in Normandy; consultation with MOJ on compensation available under the Paris-Brussels conventions.

"Consultation" doesn't exactly sound as if anything is fixed regarding compensation, does it? Or is there a nice agreement lurking somewhere that I missed?

Health has several items in the "red", and with the new sunken road, the lack of progress on this one is, I feel, significantly bad:

In 2007; debate and implement an Air Quality Strategy for Jersey, including proposals for monitoring and publishing levels of local air pollution, and targets, policies and timescales for reductions in air pollution levels that reflect best practice globally (P&E) Note: This is the responsibility of the Environmental Health Team at Health & Social Services

Under "green", for ongoing and on-track, Planning have this!

Develop a viable proposal in 2006 to provide a new town park for St Helier within three to four years (P&E/TTS)

with the comment (and failure of the spell-checker in their PDF!):

Work underway to develop porposals (sic) for remediation, provision of new park and development of public car parking facilility.


and given the failure of Stuart Syvret to get anyone to look into toxic metals on the Waterfront, is it any wonder that the following is "red":

In 2007; consult on, then debate and implement, a Contaminated Land Strategy (P&E). Slippage due to competing priorities.

Social security is extremely short, and has nothing at all about supporting any kind of work schemes for mentally handicapped adults leaving the education system - who may well find that they have nothing to do except stay with their carers. It is wonderful how you can get ticks for "green" and "completed", and solve the difficult problems by just ignoring them.

14 Year Old Speaking Wisdom for Our Planet

Ou comment une jeune fille de 14 ans remet à leur place les dirigeants du monde.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JvVf1piHXg

This is an impassioned and intelligent discourse on the environment, on poverty, on waste, on wars - by a 14 year old girl.

Subtitles in French, but the language is English. It is only 6 minutes long, and quite, quite brilliant. I wish I could be as clear.

I was sent it by a friend, and have just listened to it with my son. We were both absolutely blown away with the clarity in which she says everything. It is an extraordinary speech, so full of passion and plain common sense. She is talking to the delegates of a conference, and has an assurance and confidence that belies her years. While impassioned, it is also full of cogent argument, not just an appeal to the emotions, although there is that too.

Please watch it if you have the time, especially if you think these things don't matter.

Blog Reviews 1

This is horribly incomplete, but at the rate they are expanding, if I don't put something down, I'll never do so. More to follow later....

http://peterhanning.blogspot.com/

This is the Constable of St Saviour's blog. Don't expect much comment about the States here, it is all about Parish events, like the St Saviour's entry in the Battle of Flowers, Jeux Intervilles, St Saviour in bloom etc. But very well done as a celebration of those aspects of Parish Life. We need these "glimpses of eden", life does not revolve around politics all the time. Although it is a little strange to have quite such an omission of anything political!

http://st-ouennais.livejournal.com/

The informed and intelligent rural scene from someone at the cutting edge. This has an interesting variety of articles, from those about farming - from the farmer's perspective - to GM food, waste disposal, the environment, global warming and Imagine Jersey. For events like Imagine Jersey, or the The Jersey Care Leavers' Association public meeting, expect meticulous detailed reports that are a boon to those whom, like myself, are unable to easily attend, and who do not like relying on the inadequate precis of the Jersey Evening Post. These reports remind me of the old days when the JEP would devote pages and pages to States debates, meetings etc, before the era of the quick "sound-bite". The other comments, on GM Food, Global Warming etc are also well reasoned, with lots of useful links to primary sources. Interwoven with this, are his personal stories, the farming year, planting chestnut trees, stories of how St Ouen folk rally round when flooding strikes. Wonderful!

http://krakowcrapaud.blogspot.com/

A Jerseyman in Poland. A mixture of comments from afar, some interesting stuff on Poland, and how the news appears from far abroad. As well as the manifesto he would have given if he had been in Jersey and eligible for election; being in Poland for so long disqualified him. A very strong environmentalist from St Ouen who comments a lot on those matters, and is appalled how little consideration is given to that by the Jersey States.

http://www.benjaminlanglois.net/jersey/

The State of Jersey. An infrequent poster, mostly critical of GST, but a good clearing house for information with his directory at:
http://www.benjaminlanglois.net/jerseydirectory/


http://blog.cameronharris.org/

Cameron Harris' Blog
A combination of posts on computer technology, computer games and robotics intersperced with traffic issues. The traffic issues are local, the others are more general, but very interesting. If you want to see one vision of the future as seen by a young man, look at "Brains in Jars", a thought-proving and intelligent posting. Good stuff on the deficiencies of Jersey transport by someone who uses the buses.


http://crapaudmatic.blogspot.com/

Really good photographs of Jersey, with a cluster of photos for each theme - e.g. Moonlight Parade, La Coupe Lookout Tower, and several on "Nite" which are really classy views of parts of St Helier by night.

http://debcarrs-daydreams.blogspot.com/

Mostly about writing, but the odd Jersey theme like the Battle of Flowers

If your're not there, I haven't forgotten you - this is only part 1!

The Omen

http://www.thisisjersey.com/2008/09/16/lehman-collapse-is-good-omen/

THE collapse of one of the world's largest investment banks could be a good omen in the longer term, according to a finance industry spokesman. Geoff Cook, chief executive of industry promoters Jersey Finance, believes that the crisis might actually solve problems in the financial system. Reacting to yesterday's news that US bank Lehman Brothers was insolvent, Mr Cook said that there was likely to be global volatility in the markets for some time to come. 'In many ways it is a good thing,' he said. 'There are problems in the financial system and this will take the weaker players out, which is what is needed to free up the system.'

Isn't it such a charming manner in which people - like Geoff Cook - can say that a collapse which means massive job losses worldwide, and lots of suffering and misery in the process, can actually be a "good thing"! You'd never know about the suffering; it is just all figures on a balance sheet. Would he have said the same about the Wall Street crash, or the German financial meltdown of the 1930s? Probably.

No doubt if he had been around when the Titanic sank, the redoubtable Mr Cook would have been expounding on how this would benefit world passenger shipping by removing the weaker players and making sure than lifeboats were there for all. And perhaps he is right in the long term, but to state it like he does, with no sign of consideration for the short term misery inflicted, displays a degree of callousness that is almost beyond belief. Even Lord Mersey was not quite as bad at that when he presided over the British enquiry. I think the Titanic survivors would have wanted a few words with Mr Cook, at the very least.

No doubt an ancestor of his was about saying the Black Death was a "good omen" because it opened up employment opportunities by taking the weaker players out, which was what was needed to free up the system.

But - to be fair - perhaps the JEP only reported part of what he said, in which case, if I were him, I'd contact the JEP forthwith and get them to put the other quotations - if they exist - to show that he actually cares for the people who have lost everything as a result of the market collapses in the USA rippling round the world, and who don't have the luxury of same States supported amour-plated job security of his own employment.

"But you were always a good man of business, Jacob," faltered Scrooge, who now began to apply this to himself.

"Business!" cried the Ghost, wringing its hands again. "Mankind was my business. The common welfare was my business; charity, mercy, forbearance, and benevolence, were, all, my business. The dealings of my trade were but a drop of water in the comprehensive ocean of my business!"

Jersey Election reporting 2008

Voters have a choice of 21 candidates for Senator. There are six available
seats. Three sitting senators will be trying to keep their jobs in the States -

Philip Ozouf, Paul Routier and Mike Vibert. Five deputies are aiming for an Islandwide mandate. They are Alan Breckon, Sarah Ferguson, Alan MacLean, Geoff Southern Peter Troy. And thirteen potential newcomers are seeking election. They are Cliff Le Clerq, Nick Le Cornu, Mark Forskitt, Mike Higgins, Jeremy Macon, Ian le Marquand, Nick Palmer, Mick Pashley, Chris Perkins, Trevor Pitman, Montfort Tadier, Adrian Walsh and Daniel Wimberley.

Radio 103 has a site up and running as a blog on the candidates starting at:

http://jerseyelections.wordpress.com/


The BBC site is at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/jersey/the_states/election/


and the JEP has a section at:

http://www.thisisjersey.com/section/election/


I'll be doing my own blog on candidates later, when there is more information about them. For the moment, all I will note is that a number will certainly be seeking some kind of "protest vote", and I hope the vote does not split among them like it did with the JDA and Jersey Central Party in the last elections, so that only the more establishment figures get in - because there are not enough of them to split their votes.

Incinerator Backup Plan

The States having voted to go ahead with the incinerator, I have a number of questions for the people standing who want to go back on that motion:

a) Do you personally know what the position is regarding a new incinerator? In other words, have any contracts been signed, and if not what is the deadline for signing them? What penalty might there be if they are signed?

b) How much of a delay do you see in any debate on alternatives? Will it set the time table for putting a new incinerator in place back by one month, six months, a year? Or is the alternative incinerator available in less time?

c) In the meantime, should the current one completely break down before there is anything to take its place, what practical contingency plans would you put in place to dispose of rubbish for the interim, for instance, household rubbish, and do you how much is that going to cost?

The more facts and figures - costings especially - the better. Alternatives may look good on paper, but it is the fine detail of a business plan that is needed.

I'm undecided, but if the incinerator breaks down catastrophically, then I can see (1) costs of shipping waste out - if we can find a taker (2) massive health problems - rats, smells etc etc It would be nice to recycle everything overnight, but that costs too - shipping costs at least - and I'd like to see some real budget facts and figures.

I know someone who works at Bellozanne - not management, but ground floor workforce - and the news I have from them is that we are living on the brink of chaos.

Commercial Ethos?

http://www.thisisjersey.com/2008/09/16/deputy-seeks-mandate-from-whole-island/

Deputy Maclean (45), who is married with young children and runs the estate agency Mulberry, has had responsibility for the Airport and the Island's harbours since assuming his role as Assistant Economic Development Minister. He said he had introduced a more commercial ethos to both Jersey Airport and Jersey Harbours that had resulted in more services, more routes and more travellers.

Is that the commercial ethos which has seen the loss of HD Ferries, and budget airlines are pulling out of Jersey routes? It's a very strange way to announce your campaign? I know it is not his doing, but to completely ignore the recent losses of services, and the continual failings of HD Ferries in order to paint a rosy picture (for which he takes all the credit) seems very strange!

Guernseywatch

I hope to get back over to Guernsey in the first weekend in October. Some interesting stuff happening.

A DETAILED survey of the Bailiwick seabed started yesterday. Guernsey Electricity's submarine survey is designed to gather information that could help potential developers assess whether conditions are suitable for tidal projects. The availability of this data is likely to make the Bailiwick more attractive to developers, who would otherwise have to spend hundreds of thousands of pounds carrying out a similar survey themselves. Project head Sally-Ann David, GE's engineering services manager, said the physical requirements for the seabed could differ depending on the type of technology being used. 'But whatever system you have, you are going to need to secure it to the seabed somehow in an area where there is a fast-flowing tidal stream. What this survey will do is provide the critical data engineers will need to assess whether locations we believe offer the right tidal conditions are going to be suitable for a particular technology.'

http://www.thisisguernsey.com/2008/09/16/survey-set-to-get-to-the-bottom-of-tidal-power/


It is clear they are very serious about tidal power, and why not? For islands with such huge tidal ranges, it seems folly not to be able to harness that immense flow and use it to generate electricity, especially in these energy conscious days. When we get very clear weather, a look over at France reveals wind turbines on their hills, just visible to the naked eye. Alternative energy can work, if you have the right energy source for your locality, which is why solar power is not such a good bet. But Guernsey are really putting a lot of effort into making tidal power attractive to developers by providing this survey data. Why isn't Jersey doing anything as forward looking? The only tidal power suggestion over here was part of the land bridge to France idea, and it was interestingly the power generation aspect that appealed to the French.

Elsewhere, however, Jersey has stolen a march on Guernsey.

http://www.thisisguernsey.com/2008/09/16/voting-for-a-check-on-attendance/


FOR avid States-watchers - and there is an island full of them - a move by the States Assembly and Constitution Committee to make the voting record of the House available online is a significant advance. For short of visiting the Greffe and asking to access the register, there is currently no easy way of seeing how your district representatives have voted on key issues. Yes, this newspaper publishes the main decisions but unless electors cut them out for future reference there is no easily researchable archive of the outcome of debates and, to that extent, less accountability than there should be.

I have found Jersey's own voting record site to be excellent in that respect. Its Hansard is sometimes a little on the slow side, but still brilliant in enabling us to see what arguments (or lack of arguments) are actually made, but the voting record is sometimes updated on the day itself, and if not by the morning of the following day. It does enable us to see how people vote, and pick up on consistent voting patterns, and all without having to buy the JEP. In the old days, columns of newsprint were devoted to States debates and votes, and while important ones still get a mention, there is much reduced coverage. But that is as it should be: democracy in action, as the Guernsey Press points out, should not depend on having to read a newspaper to find out what is going on.


More on Eugene Hughes at:

http://www.thisisguernsey.com/2008/09/15/he-nearly-got-away-with-it/


EUGENE HUGHES'S vile crimes were finally brought to justice when he ogled one of his victims' children by chance in Town. The woman, who did not wish to be named, had been walking up the High Street with her 18-month-old daughter when she spotted her abuser going the other way. She hadn't seen him for years and was unsure if he had recognised her. The encounter made the woman decide to tell Hughes how she would never forget what he had done to her. When she sought police advice on the best way to do it, she ended up making a formal complaint. By coincidence her decision came just before other women who had suffered at his hands decided to come forward. Last week, the 80-year-old was jailed for six-and-half years after he admitted eight counts of indecent assault on girls between the ages of seven and 14 between 1987 and 1996. Two other offences were taken into account in the sentencing. The case related to offences against five different girls, all now adults.


http://www.thisisguernsey.com/2008/09/15/he-tore-my-family-apart-and-took-my-life-away-from-me/


A YOUNG mother has told of how her physical abuse by a paedophile tore her family apart. Her complaint against Eugene Hughes was the first in a sequence that culminated in him being locked up for six-and-a-half years. 'I was determined that if it stopped one person from going through what I have, it would be worthwhile,' she said. 'The Royal Court made no allowance for his age, which is only right, as he made no allowance for mine.'


An example of justice that still stands out against Jersey where delay follows delay, and Lennie Harper again reiterated the difficulty he and his team had. However, On the child abuse issue, the Guernsey press highlights in its letters page that Guernsey still has not got a sex offenders register, although the paper itself is happy to name and shame when it feels it is in the public interest to know if a known sex offender is released in the community, as it did in late 2007, when the editor commented on his actions as follows:


[The article] simply reflected the very real concerns of the parent at the receiving end of James Brehaut's actions which, unless our critic believes them to be normal behaviour, were perverted. The reason we went into depth - and gave all those concerned or involved every opportunity to comment simultaneously - was that for reasons we cannot explain, none of the island's media appeared to know the case was being heard. The father's fears were all the more understandable given the context, which is why we felt it important to provide the background of what was presented in court, unpleasant though it was. Does the Guernsey Press have faith in the legal system? Yes. Do islanders feel adequately informed about the whereabouts and identity of child sex offenders? No. We are accused of scaremongering, yet the fact remains that a man who deemed it acceptable to steal into children's bedrooms and download shocking images of abused youngsters is now free. The issue, it seems to us, is how the authorities convince islanders that no more offences will be committed - and why they shouldn't see what Brehaut looks like.

Pity the JEP is not as outspoken!