The Gorst Line

The Gorst Line

The "Gorst Line" takes a look at the statistics regarding Ian Gort's votes in the States over the period 2015, 2016, 2017 and to January 2018.

It answers the question: how many times did other politicians vote the same way as the Chief Minister. There are several factors which skew the results.

1) Neither Sarah Ferguson nor Zoe Cameron served a full term; these are outliers. Other outliers to a degree would be Philip Ozouf and Scott Wickenden, neither of whom were Assistant Ministers for the whole time scale.

2) The issue of non-votes for En Default, Not Present for Vote, Absent (Excused), Illness - The Gorst Adjusted column shows what the votes would be if these were allocated on a proportional basis to the main votes. This may not be necessarily correct: non-present for vote has been used to avoid Collective responsibility, or possibly to avoid care inquiry votes where the Chief Minister was pressing for a unanimous vote, and got it - for those present for the vote.

3) The Constables votes are fairly evenly distributed, with perhaps a bias towards the COM line, but the closeness one would expect if there were a "block vote" is not apparent.

It should be noted - as Jeremy Macon pointed out to me - that a proportion of legislation passed is not controversial, and that is reflected in the fact that even Deputy Southern voted the same was as Ian Gorst on 170 occasions. However, despite that, an underlying pattern does emerge, in terms of votes of Reform, Ministers (MN) and Assistant Ministers (AM).

Among the Council of Ministers, they are all pretty close to Ian Gorst, except for Lyndon Farnham, who is also out on a limb when it comes to declaring himself as a candidate for Chief Minister. Quite how well someone could be as Chief Minister who distances himself from his colleagues is something for the electorate to decide.

Gorst Line	Non-Vote	Gost Adj		Name
139	29	163		Sarah Craig Ferguson
93	76	135		Zoe Ann Cameron
230	34	260		Samuel Yves Mezec
171	101	234		Geoffrey Peter Southern
190	89	251		Montfort Tadier
178	142	257		Michael Roderick Higgins
267	64	319		Judith Ann Martin
272	70	328		Kevin Charles Lewis
324	21	344		Jeremy Martin Macon
344	7	351		Terence Alexander McDonald
316	37	349		Simon Muir Bree
315	41	351		Christopher Hugh Taylor
241	121	322		Russell Labey
241	130	325		Louise Mary Catherine  Doublet
314	66	369		Jacqueline Ann Hilton
249	131	335		Sadie Anthea Le Sueur-Rennard
234	147	324		John Alexander Nicholas Le Fondre
311	71	369		Carolyn Fiona Labey
298	108	377		Andrew David Lewis
366	42	404		Tracey Anne Vallois
410	6	416		Robert David Johnson
352	69	410		John Edward Le Maistre
302	125	390	AM	Scott Michael Wickenden
376	52	422		Philip Bond Le Sueur
276	155	375		Alan Simon Crowcroft
352	81	418	AM	Peter Derek McLinton
374	60	426		Michael John Paddock
340	99	417		Juliette Gallichan
440	3	443		Michel Philip Sydney Le Troquer
441	3	444	AM	Graham John Truscott
317	128	408		Richard John Renouf
374	75	436		Leonard Norman
359	93	433	AM	Deidre Wendy Mezbourian
371	83	439	AM	John Martin Refault
379	80	445	MN	Lyndon John Farnham
335	124	426	AM	Stephen William Pallett
400	60	452	AM	Murray Julian Norton
264	197	377	AM	Philip Francis Cyril Ozouf
145	320	245	AM	Richard John Rondel
292	177	402	MN	Sir Philip Martin   Bailhache
385	84	454	MN	Stephen George Luce
372	98	450	MN	Alan John Henry Maclean
414	58	465	MN	Anne Enid Pryke
407	67	465	MN	Edward James Noel
406	68	464	MN	Kristina Louise Moore
420	54	468	MN	Susan Jane Pinel
403	72	464	MN	Roderick Gordon Bryans
456	21	476	MN	Andrew Kenneth Francis  Green M.B.E.
411	68	469	AM	Paul Francis Routier M.B.E.
486	0	486	CM	Ian Joseph Gorst