The Gorst Line
The "Gorst Line" takes a look at the statistics regarding Ian Gort's votes in the States over the period 2015, 2016, 2017 and to January 2018.
It answers the question: how many times did other politicians vote the same way as the Chief Minister. There are several factors which skew the results.
1) Neither Sarah Ferguson nor Zoe Cameron served a full term; these are outliers. Other outliers to a degree would be Philip Ozouf and Scott Wickenden, neither of whom were Assistant Ministers for the whole time scale.
2) The issue of non-votes for En Default, Not Present for Vote, Absent (Excused), Illness - The Gorst Adjusted column shows what the votes would be if these were allocated on a proportional basis to the main votes. This may not be necessarily correct: non-present for vote has been used to avoid Collective responsibility, or possibly to avoid care inquiry votes where the Chief Minister was pressing for a unanimous vote, and got it - for those present for the vote.
3) The Constables votes are fairly evenly distributed, with perhaps a bias towards the COM line, but the closeness one would expect if there were a "block vote" is not apparent.
It should be noted - as Jeremy Macon pointed out to me - that a proportion of legislation passed is not controversial, and that is reflected in the fact that even Deputy Southern voted the same was as Ian Gorst on 170 occasions. However, despite that, an underlying pattern does emerge, in terms of votes of Reform, Ministers (MN) and Assistant Ministers (AM).
Among the Council of Ministers, they are all pretty close to Ian Gorst, except for Lyndon Farnham, who is also out on a limb when it comes to declaring himself as a candidate for Chief Minister. Quite how well someone could be as Chief Minister who distances himself from his colleagues is something for the electorate to decide.
|Gorst Line||Non-Vote||Gost Adj||Name|
|139||29||163||Sarah Craig Ferguson|
|93||76||135||Zoe Ann Cameron|
|230||34||260||Samuel Yves Mezec|
|171||101||234||Geoffrey Peter Southern|
|178||142||257||Michael Roderick Higgins|
|267||64||319||Judith Ann Martin|
|272||70||328||Kevin Charles Lewis|
|324||21||344||Jeremy Martin Macon|
|344||7||351||Terence Alexander McDonald|
|316||37||349||Simon Muir Bree|
|315||41||351||Christopher Hugh Taylor|
|241||130||325||Louise Mary Catherine Doublet|
|314||66||369||Jacqueline Ann Hilton|
|249||131||335||Sadie Anthea Le Sueur-Rennard|
|234||147||324||John Alexander Nicholas Le Fondre|
|311||71||369||Carolyn Fiona Labey|
|298||108||377||Andrew David Lewis|
|366||42||404||Tracey Anne Vallois|
|410||6||416||Robert David Johnson|
|352||69||410||John Edward Le Maistre|
|302||125||390||AM||Scott Michael Wickenden|
|376||52||422||Philip Bond Le Sueur|
|276||155||375||Alan Simon Crowcroft|
|352||81||418||AM||Peter Derek McLinton|
|374||60||426||Michael John Paddock|
|440||3||443||Michel Philip Sydney Le Troquer|
|441||3||444||AM||Graham John Truscott|
|317||128||408||Richard John Renouf|
|359||93||433||AM||Deidre Wendy Mezbourian|
|371||83||439||AM||John Martin Refault|
|379||80||445||MN||Lyndon John Farnham|
|335||124||426||AM||Stephen William Pallett|
|400||60||452||AM||Murray Julian Norton|
|264||197||377||AM||Philip Francis Cyril Ozouf|
|145||320||245||AM||Richard John Rondel|
|292||177||402||MN||Sir Philip Martin Bailhache|
|385||84||454||MN||Stephen George Luce|
|372||98||450||MN||Alan John Henry Maclean|
|414||58||465||MN||Anne Enid Pryke|
|407||67||465||MN||Edward James Noel|
|406||68||464||MN||Kristina Louise Moore|
|420||54||468||MN||Susan Jane Pinel|
|403||72||464||MN||Roderick Gordon Bryans|
|456||21||476||MN||Andrew Kenneth Francis Green M.B.E.|
|411||68||469||AM||Paul Francis Routier M.B.E.|
|486||0||486||CM||Ian Joseph Gorst|