John le Fondré's Statement - A Review

John le Fondré’s Statement – A Review

Inclusive – what does it mean?

Senator-Elect John le Fondré begins with a statement that: “My vision is for a society which is inclusive and enjoys a good standard of living.”

Now the word “inclusive” suggests a society in which there is discrimination is fought against, and this was emphasised by Senator Gorst in his statement five times, several times in the context of building an inclusive community, and once in the context of equal marriage laws.

The word “discrimination” does not occur once in John Le Fondré’s statement, and he is currently, in the run up to the election, being criticised and vilified on social media and even in the JEP - by Andy Jones, who has said  “Will that message be that Jersey’s assembly is going to place those supportive of religious bigotry at the pinnacle of its government?”.

This is because of Le Fondré’s part in bringing a scrutiny proposition for debate which sought exceptions for suppliers of goods and services with regard to gay marriages. In some cases, the language has been intemperate in the extreme, but I suppose that is the nature of social media.

Now a previous candidate in the Senatorial elections, Moz Scott, has taken the very sensible step of testing some of those allegations. In the group “Politics Jersey”, she commented:

“I found out last evening that I’m the only member of the public who has asked a gay member of the new States Assembly, who served in the last States Assembly with John Le Fondré, whether he considered John Le Fondré to be a homophobe or not from his experience of JLF. Surely, this has to be relevant in appraising JLF’s ability to work in a team with people of all backgrounds?”

“The person I spoke with informed me that he has worked well with JLF and does not regard JLF as a homophobe. Like me, he regarded the proposed Corporate Scrutiny Panel amendment on religious grounds as more appropriate for a backbencher’s proposition. He informed me when he discussed this with JLF, JLF

said that he had been reluctant to do this in case he appeared homophobic (so much for that).”

"Accusing someone of being a homophobe based purely on their action without exploring their personal conduct towards members of the LGBTQ community is like accusing someone of murder without exploring whether they might be guilty of manslaughter. You need to be informed about a person’s state of mind to determine whether that person is a homophobe, even if that person makes a bad decision that supports homophobic behaviour."

I think that those judging John le Fondré should perhaps listen more carefully to his peers, who knew him from the last assembly, and will be in the current assembly, who is gay. That seems to me to be a far better litmus test of this particular criticism, and I think Moz Scott was very clever to do that.

However, it has to be noted also that there is far less about a fight against discrimination in his manifesto.

Opportunities for all States Members

“I wish to return to long term thinking, and working far more collaboratively with the whole of the States Assembly. Some of the strategies below will only properly bear fruit after this States has finished, but we should be bold, and aim to set the foundations for a successful future.”

“I commit to ensuring that ALL Ministerial Decisions (exempt and non-exempt) are provided automatically to the relevant Scrutiny Panel, with the associated supporting documentation.”

“We have members who have vast experience in marketing and creativity in general, and I want to use those skills to produce an innovative and well developed communication strategy to better communicate with the public of this Island.”

“I wish to create a structure that permits proper, and early, engagement with Members and Scrutiny to allow consideration of policy under development. I will consider the establishment of Policy Development Boards, which will be intended to allow the involvement of back benchers in policy development (whilst preserving their independence), possibly with other relevant stakeholders. We must however ensure we do not breach the Troy Rule or the general principle that Scrutiny Panel members should not end up scrutinising something they have previously been involved with.”

One of the things which has struck me about Ministerial government is that while Scrutiny has a role to play, effectively half the talent of the States is being wasted.

Just by way of example, and I do realise it is an easy case to put, someone like Deputy John Young. When he lost his seat in the 2014 election trying for Senator, he became virtually snapped by Alderney to work as Islands Planning officer to produce their 2017 Land Use Plan and implement planning law reform. John has had a career in UK local government finance, John became a top civil servant in Jersey, law firm and finance industry manager, and is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Public Finance Accountants among other professional qualifications. And yet in the period from 2011 to 2014 was not even made Assistant Minister. That is surely a huge waste of talent.

The introduction of Policy Development Boards seems like a constructive way to harness the talent of backbenchers before propositions come before the States.

The abject failure of some propositions is only too plain– waste charge on businesses, health charge on everyone, the site of the hospital on the People’s Park, the first attempt to finance the hospital which was eviscerated by amendments from the Treasury Minister himself.

There has to be a better way to bring propositions and for the States to work in a more collaborative way. Whoever becomes Chief Minister would do well to take this on board.

Taxation

“I support a system of taxation that is low, broad and simple. I am not generally supportive of new ‘user pays’ charges being introduced as measures to raise revenue. We need a cohesive tax system which is modern and fit for purpose, in the changing environment in which we live.”

The Council of Ministers has seen various stealth charges introduced, or attempted to be introduced. Long term care charge (LTC), which we were always told was a charge and not a tax, has since been declared by a judgement of the Solicitor-General to be a tax, albeit a hypothecated tax (in laymen’s terms a “ring fenced tax”.

We all knew this because the basic rate of ITIS is 21% and not 20%. LTC is itself complex as it has its own set of upper thresholds, complicating tax calculations on assessments. The tax system is certainly not nearly as simple as it could be, and pretending the base tax rate is 20% is quite honestly dishonest.

And this could almost be seen as a direct challenge to the way in which incremental so-called charges have been mooted (and sometimes passed) over the last three and half years:

“Any changes in tax policy require careful consultation in particular with industry and stakeholders and should not be changed ‘on the hoof’ which then raises the risk of unintended consequences.”

It is noteworthy that the words “tax” and “taxation” with regard to Jersey’s domestic economy simply don’t feature in Ian Gorst’s statement. It begs the question: why not?

Population

“I consider Population to be the most critical internal issue facing this Island, and a Policy Development Board specifically for population will be one of the first to be created. This will consider the policy that has been lodged (P70/2018) in greater detail; properly communicate and consult with key stakeholders including industry; but also ensure that we have adequate data to ensure we understand the consequences of any decisions.”

Population increase at its current rate is simply not sustainable, but care needs to be taken to control population and provide alternatives for migration from the local labour pool.

This came up time and time again at the election, and really very little work has been done to examine the issues involved, and produce some kind of model that enables us to see the skill set across different industries and different size businesses within the Island and what incentives and training can be given to encourage more local skilled workers. George Osborne’s apprenticeship levy on large businesses, defrayed if they provide in house training and advancement, is perhaps one string to the bow.

No politician is going to have all the answers, and it will be a careful balancing act to work out a flexible policy that can adapt swiftly to changing circumstances, but at least John le Fondré is looking at it as a major issue, not something which is deferred and fudged.

Public Sector Reform
“As a whole, I anticipate receiving initial data as to the likely savings arising from the Public Sector Reform program within the next few weeks. These will have a significant impact upon future expenditure plans and targets.”

This is perhaps the most interesting area – we have been promised savings from Public Sector Reform – considerable savings by Charlie Parker. We need to have some kind of measurable timetable, and ways of measuring the efficiency of the reforms “behind the scenes”.

Both John Le Fondré and Ian Gorst mention this. Ian Gorst speaks of “new CEO’s vision for modern customer-focused, digital, value-for-money public services”. Visions are useful as broad strategic aims, but we need to have some feedback – after all Charlie Parker has been working away for some time now with his “wise men”, and we need details on how that vision should be implemented.

In conclusion...

John le Fondré’s lack of recent involvement within Ministerial Government has advantages and disadvantages. He has less experience of the way things work, but on the other hand, he can bring a fresh perspective to the Council of Ministers, and hopefully some fresh blood too.

His statement is far longer and more detailed that than of Ian Gorst, and that reflects the fact that he cannot allude to past leadership using shorthand. But it is also more noticeable that it features key items which came up at the election, some of which seem singularly absent from Ian Gorst’s agenda.

As anyone who watches “Yes Minister” knows, it is the civil servants who provide the underpinning for a government, whoever the Chief Minister and Ministers are, and even despite Charlie Parker’s reforms, it is there that some real continuity will be found in operational management from day one. So while a different Chief Minister will have to "find his feet", this is not an unsuperable obstacle.

When Ian Gorst stood against Sir Philip Bailhache, back in 2011, neither had much to call on in the way of experience of Chief Minister, even though Ian had been Social Security Minister. In 2014, a backroom deal was struck between Senators Gorst and Maclean which meant that there was no opportunity for change.

This strikes me as the first time we have actually an opportunity for a debate, quite evenly balanced, between continuity and change, but if change does come about, I am sure that Senator Le Fondré will be capable of facing the challenges ahead.

Ian Gorst's Statement – A Review

Ian Gorst's Statement – A Review

I’ve been looking through Senator Gorst’s statement for the States to vote for him as Chief Minister, and there are certain matters which I think bear scrutiny.

Why no change earlier?

Part of the main issue with any long term Minister or Chief Minister is that while it does take time to implement change, certain long term issues should have been dealt with long before. This is the issue with Ian Gorst’s continuing as Chief Minister, but it would apply equally to any long term Minister.

Terry Le Main, for instance, was Housing President from 1999, and then Housing Minister from 2005.until 2010. The lack of a proper maintenance programme on social rented housing – which had to be taken up by Andium Homes, could hardly be laid at the foot of his predecessor when it came up

An example would be

“make progress in implementing an effective population policy that serves the needs of our island’s economy, without adding to pressure on our housing, public services and environment.”

An Interim Population Policy was introduced between 2014 and 2016, but when that ran out, nothing was put in its place.

It does appear that on population policy, which was mainly assigned to Senator Gorst’s right hand man, Senator Paul Routier, nothing much was done beyond 2016. That remit came beneath the Chief Minister’s department, so why was nothing done?

In May 2017, Ian Gorst told the JEP that he intended to have an interim policy in place while the negotiations continued which could be revisited once the UK has left the EU. “'I would like to be able to have a debate in this Assembly on this issue in July. Factoring in scrutiny, it may not be until after the summer. However, I will undertake to lodge a population policy prior to the summer recess.'

But that never happened.

A new migration policy has now been proposed, and was put in place to be debated by the outgoing Council of Ministers, but it is not to be debated until September 2018, well after the summer recess of 2018!

I am always wary of phases that seem to be culled from Yes Minister like “make progress in implementing”. Why not simply “implement an effective population policy”? It seems like another excuse for delay.

I was struck in the election campaign how extraordinary little there was in Kristina Moore’s manifesto on population and migration, and here I see something of the same. 

I hope members raise this in the Q&A as it seems an area not included in his post-election timetable (“Within three months... etc”) which I think it manifestly should be.

Word and Deed

Senator Gorst mentions

Throughout my time in the Assembly, I have focused on three core areas, and I will do so again.

He lists them and this includes:

“promoting a fair and inclusive society, which supports the vulnerable, raises standards of living for families on low incomes or who find it hard to make ends meet, and where discrimination in our island community is always challenged

“supports the vulnerable”

One of the key features which came up time and again at the Hustings was the Andium Homes raising rents to 90% of market value which impacted considerably on people in social housing.

Another change was the removal of the Christmas bonus which came back as means tested only from a backbencher proposition, and likewise the retention of the means tested TV licence for pensioners over 65 again from a backbencher (Judy Martin) when the Minister (Susie Pinel) wanted to remove it.

“raises standards of living for families on low incomes”

The Social Security Minister also removed income support from adults under 25 living at home. This was not just a reduction, which could be seen as reasonable, but a removal, which meant that the cost impact of a young adult at home would be wholly borne by the family, while at the same time, an under 25 living in rental accommodation would receive income support.

But on the other hand....

“discrimination in our island community is always challenged”

And in this respect one might hold up:

“I have championed the rights of minority groups, sponsoring the new equal marriage law, and taking action against discrimination”

Unlike John Le Fondré, whose Scrutiny proposition served to delay a new marriage law, and actually would have pushed back the boundaries of toleration, Senator Gorst has been determined to drive that through.

“a proven track record of standing up for vulnerable people,”

He also pushed through firstly the Care Inquiry, prevented attempts to derail it over funding, and after publication worked hard implementing the Children’s Commissioner and has been determined not to allow the recommendations of the Care Inquiry gather dust in a filing cabinet.

This has not always been popular as within his own Council of Ministers there was dissent. But I felt, and still feel, this was genuine moral leadership of a kind not seen before by Chief Ministers.

It was, as he told me shortly before the election, “a once in a lifetime chance to get it right”. It is extremely likely that without any other Chief Minister at the helm, that chance would not have been taken up so firmly, although some credit must be given to former Chief Minister Frank Walker for promising an independent inquiry.

However, the former Chief Minister Terry Le Sueur not only tried to renege on the promise made that there would be an independent inquiry - Senator Francis Le Gresley had to bring a proposition to bring it about - on the morning before the inquiry results were made public, he was still stating on BBC Radio Jersey that he didn't really think it would accomplish much or would reveal anything we didn't already know. That was a complete antithesis of moral leadership.

So, going back to Ian Gorst – a mixed record on Word and Deed. Where he has been the driving force for change, the two appear well-aligned, but when Ministers have been responsible, as seen in the examples given above, what actually happens goes in the opposite direction to the rhetoric.

The fact that his nomination paper contains Ministers and Assistant Ministers, some of whom may well retain their current portfolios, does not bode particularly well on that score. There does not seem to be engagement with the "new blood" in the Assembly as yet.

And in conclusion...

“I believe that I have shown integrity and good judgement throughout my terms as Chief Minister, and that no-one doubts my personal commitment to serving our island.”

On that statement, I think his judgement has at times been somewhat poor, as for instance judging it right to bring in collective responsibility at the start and then deciding it was actually a bad idea right at the end. I have no problem with that at all: something tested may look good, but until implemented it is hard to see how it will work out.

But it is notable that it took until 2018 for a proposition to remove it to surface, and that he makes no mention of learning from his mistakes.

We all make mistakes, but I would like to see a Chief Minister who made a more explicit acknowledgement of those mistakes, rather than the vaguer statement with an implicit suggestion that he could have just "done better":

"The Chief Minister must show leadership in decision-making, but also leadership in listening – to Ministerial and States colleagues, to stakeholders and to islanders. I commit to doing better within a more inclusive framework."

But on his integrity, or personal commitment to serving the Island, I have no doubts whatsoever. If he does emerge the victor, we will have someone who can be a firm negotiator on Brexit. Also, albeit late in the day, (probably because he had to wait for John Richardson to retire) managed to get the first real chance for a ground breaking and much needed reform of the public sector from the top by Charlie Parker - the top layers of management usually goes untouched but reformation is badly needed there, rather than with those who toil at the rockface, and who need more support and encouragement.

Will the electorate be happy if he succeeds? A lot may depend on how the new Council of Ministers is less of a citadel, from which backbenchers are excluded,  from which propositions come forth like shots from a cannon, and how much is done to engage with the considerable talents of new States members across the political spectrum in the formation of policy. Will we see the "more inclusive framework"if he is Chief Minister? Let's hope so.

The Next Chief Minister: A Comment

Voting Trends

10 members have signed Senator Gorst’s nomination paper: Constable Deidre Mezbourian, Constable Simon Crowcroft, Senator-elect Steve Pallett, Deputy Richard Renouf, Deputy Richard Rondel, Senator-elect Kristina Moore, Deputy Scott Wickenden, Deputy Susie Pinel, Deputy Graham Truscott, and Constable Philip Le Sueur.

15 members have signed Senator-elect John Le Fondré’s paper: Deputy-elect Lindsay Ash, Constable-elect Richard Buchanan, Senator Sarah Ferguson, Deputy-elect Gregory Guida, Deputy-elect Rowland Huelin, Constable-elect Mike Jackson, Deputy David Johnson, Constable-elect John Le Bailly, Constable John Le Maistre, Deputy Kevin Lewis, Constable-elect Karen Stone, Deputy Judy Martin, Constable Chris Taylor, Constable-elect Richard Vibert, and Deputy-elect John Young.

It is interesting to notice how Ian Gorst’s nomination paper contains mainly existing Ministers or Assistant Ministers, and I know that at least one Assistant Minister, Graham Truscott openly has declared at hustings that he would like to move to a Ministry, perhaps economic development.

It’s a very safe set of choices, and it could be argued that with the demise of many experienced politicians (although I think the house is the richer for the loss of some), Ian Gorst is putting together the main talents remaining, and who know the ropes within Ministerial government.

On the other hand, this could be seen as a sign for “no change”, as the same old faces will be mainly those who see again, with a few elevations among the rank and file.

In “Yes Minister”, a very well known aspect of spending a long time in one post is where the Minister is said to have “gone native”. This is political jargon to describe that a Minister is acting in service of the Civil Service and not in service of the party or public. In the civil service such a minister is called house-trained.

That certainly happens in the UK Parliament, and is acknowledged as such. Clearly there are cases when this is the case in Jersey – for example Chief Officer Mike King appears to have had the support of several Ministers with disastrous results in the case of the Fantasy Film or the States Innovation Fund, and the outcomes from following his advice were regularly defended by his Ministers.

How many of the existing bunch can be said to be house-trained and to what extent is a matter of speculation, and Charlie Parker’s reforms will certainly attempt to shake things up behind the scenes and prevent petty fiefdoms run by some Chief Officers – to be fair, some are extremely good, but some, as has been seen, have been running their own little Empires. One attempt to crack this was Collective responsibility, but trying to fix the top when the machinery below was broken down was never going to work.

John le Fondré’s nominations – rather more than Senator Gorst – are interesting because of the political range they encompass (note Judy Martin there) as well as being a lot of new States members alongside the old. Not one of Ian Gorst’s names come from the new intake, and it is rather a slap in the face to the electorate in terms of real change.

It could be argued that John Le Fondré’s supporters, should he be successful, will be inexperienced as Ministers, but the UK manages that perfectly well with a change of party, and it would be perverse to make the case that Jersey cannot manage, especially as there are some talented individuals on the Le Fondré side.

This is clearly a push for a fresh start rather than more of the same. Continuity versus change: this is the real challenge facing the States when they reconvene to vote for a new Chief Minister.

One final note – the end result could be very close, within five votes, in which Reform – if they vote as a block – could actually determine the outcome. At present their supporters on social media seem rather hung up about John le Fondré supporting debate of an amendment to the Gay Marriage law.

But it would be a cardinal mistake to decide matters on a single issue, and when four years hangs in the balance, one which the electorate might not be that forgiving about.

Spring Elections, School Holidays and Lubbock’s Day

Spring Elections, School Holidays and Lubbock’s Day

An interesting comment from Mark Forskitt:

“Moving the election to May instead of the usual Autumn period  didn't do it, even though the weather was favourable. Personally it meant for the first time in three decades I had no active part in a significant election where I was eligible to vote.  April and May are the busiest times for  general fruit and vegetable growers.  Miss the planting season and it is most of a year's earnings lost.  So I wasn't a candidate and couldn't get involved in campaigning.”

I suddenly realised that almost certainly the reason why the election period used to be in September (Senators) and October (Deputies) was precisely because Jersey was such an agrarian community. When many States members came from the farming community – and I remember that back in the 1970s and even into the 1980s that was the case, then an Autumn election, after the harvest and “all safely gathered in” as the hymn puts it, makes sense.

I know that the UK has often had May or June elections, but in the UK, historically, and certainly before the 1832 Great Reform Act, the farming community in Parliament were rich landowners who certainly had farm managers to look after their business, unlike Jersey, where everything was much more small scale.

It is also part of the reason why both here and in the UK we have long Summer holidays. First harvest is in August – “First Fruits”, and the harvest season goes on through the rest of that month. Children needed to help with gathering that harvest.

As Ronald Hutton  explains in “The Stations of the Sun”

“The last of the cycle of four feasts mentioned in Tochmarc Emire was 'Bron Trogain, earth's sorrowing in autumn'. To keep measure with those before, this would fall upon 1 August, which was indeed the beginning of the autumn season in the medieval British Isles.”

He notes that Máire MacNeill’s study showed “open-air gatherings held by the country people of Ireland to celebrate the opening of the cereal or potato harvest, on 1 August or a Sunday near to it. Drawing mainly upon eighteenth- and nineteenth-century records, she found examples of seventy-eight of these on hills, most in Ulster but also scattered throughout the rest of the island. There were another thirteen in the North Midlands which were held beside lakes or rivers, and a further eighty connected with holy wells.”

And on customs which we take for granted, it is interesting to note how recent, relatively speaking, bank holidays are. They come only late in the 19th century by which time most workers (over 80%) were living in urban rather than rural communities, where time keeping was orderly and the seasonal rhythms had been lost. In other words, they came to a world where there was no disadvantage to having extra days holiday, unlike a rural farming community of two centuries before (over 80% living on the land), where every day mattered.

Harry Glass, writing in “This is Money” section of the Daily Mail, notes:

“Liberal MP John Lubbock who got the ball rolling back in 1871 by tabling the Bank Holidays Act of 1871, aiming to ease the pressure on workers with an extra four days off - at that point on Easter Monday, the first Monday in August, Whit Monday, and Boxing Day.”

“Lubbock was the son of a London banker, and a banker himself before becoming elected the Member of Parliament - in 1870, and again in 1874 - for Maidstone in Kent.  The fine fellow had four main political agendas, one of which was securing additional holidays and shorter working hours for the working classes. “

“The bill was passed, and predictably it went down well with the masses - there were attempts to have the early August bank holiday renamed St Lubbock's Day, but it didn't stick; 'bank holiday' is the favoured term. In fact, today the term is colloquially - albeit incorrectly - used for public holidays such as Good Friday and Christmas Day, which are not officially bank holidays.”

In fact, those days are “public holidays” rather than “bank holidays”. But there were some changes even in the last century:

“A century after the 1871 Act, the Banking and Financial Dealings Act 1971 was passed. The majority of the current bank holidays were specified in the 1971 Act, but New Year's Day and May Day were introduced after 1971.”

“From 1965, the date of the August bank holiday was changed from the first Monday in August to the last. Curiously, there were a few years (e.g. 1968) when this holiday fell in September, but this no longer occurs. The Whitsun bank holiday (Whit Monday) was replaced by the Late Spring Bank Holiday - fixed as the last Monday in May - in 1971. In 1978 the first Monday in May in the UK, and the final Monday of May in Scotland, were designated as bank holidays.”

And why “Bank Holidays”? Glass explains again:

“Why is it even called a 'bank' holiday? Elementary, my friends - it's because the banks are shut for business, and if the banks are shut, no business can be done and so we might as well all give up. And when the financial system comes to a stop, the law makes provision for certain payments to be deferred until the next appropriate day without penalty.”

John Lubbock also bought the land on which the stone circle stands at Avebury, and saved it from developers, introduced the first law on the protection of the UK's archaeological and architectural heritage, and later became Lord Avebury!

Enjoy your bank holiday, and perhaps pour a small glass of wine when you relax in the evening, and raise a toast to John Lubbock! 

Faith of Our Fathers – Part 3

The local historian G.R. Balleine was also a clergyman, and in 1940, at the outbreak of the Second World War, he penned a series of 52 lessons around the Apostle’s Creed. Balleine being first a foremost a historian, there’s a lot of history there that I’ve never come across before, and I have studied church history quite a lot.

He’s also master of the pithy anecdote or illustration to bring something to life, which is why Frank Falle says the original history, flowing freely, is a better book to read that its more worthy revisions. Joan Stevens was a fair historian, but she could not write nearly as well as Balleine, who has an almost intimate chatty style.

I’m hoping to put some or all of this book online on Sundays.

Faith of Our Fathers – Part 3
By GR Balleine

LESSON I:  I BELIEVE

Our Need of a Creed: I believe.

PASSAGE TO BE READ : Selected portions from Hebrews xi.

TEXT TO BE LEARNT : " This is the victory that overcometh the world,even our faith " (1 John v. 4).

Aim : To create that " Will to Believe," without which no one can accomplish anything great.

APPARATUS : Picture of Christ and St. Thomas.

HYMNS : " O for a faith," and " Wo saw Thee not."

HOMEWORK : Write down seven things, not in the Creed, in which you believe.

THOUGHT FOR TEACHERS : " Faith is resolving to live in the light of the highest hypothesis."

FAITH IN EVERYDAY LIFE.

(a) This year our subject is the Apostles' Creed, and to-day I want you to think about the first two words. " I believe " means " I accept as true something that I cannot prove." We call this Faith.

(b) And Faith is not a thing peculiar to religion. Every day we are constantly using it in ordinary daily life. I go to Bournemouth, and ask a boy the way to the pier. He says, "First to the right, fourth to the left." I have not the faintest proof that he is speaking the truth. He may be a liar or he may know as little of the town as I do. But I believe him. I walk by faith, and not by sight ; and in ninety-nine cases out of a hundred I reach my destination.

(c) I see a poster announcing that some celebrity is to speak in our Town Hall. It may be a stupid practical joke. Such things have been done. But I go to the Hall on the night advertised, and in ninety-nine cases out of a hundred I am not disappointed.

(d) I go to the doctor for a bottle of medicine. I have not the least idea what he has put in it : but I have faith in his skill and his kindly intentions, and I take my dose three times a day.

(e) Since I am constantly needing Faith in things of everyday life, I am not surprised when told that I shall need it also in Religion : that without Faith I can never make progress or do anything big (Text) : that I must take certain things for granted, even though for the moment I cannot actually prove them.

One early name for Christians was the Believers (e.g. " Be an example to the Believers," 1 Tim. iv. 10 : "Thou didst open the Kingdom of Heaven to all Believers," Te Deum). And at our Baptism we were pledged to be Believers too : " They did promise and vow three things in my name : secondly that I should believe." And the things we are pledged to believe are the Articles of the Apostles' Creed.

DISBELIEVERS.

(a) Of course we can, if we choose, say " I disbelieve " but think where a disbelieving spirit lands us.

Picture Disbelieving Dick, a boy without belief. At school he learns nothing. He won't believe that Britain is an island, because he has not sailed round it. He argues that it may be joined on somewhere to Norway or to France. He won't believe that Napoleon was beaten at Waterloo. Perhaps the history book writers invented the story. He is useless at sports, for he never believes that he can win, and so never tries. When asked about his mother, he replies, " I don't know if I have one. A lady at home says she is my mother, but I may be only an orphan whom she has adopted." He won't post a letter, because he can't prove that it will get to its destination. He won't take a train, because he can't prove that it will stop at the station he wants. He can't even walk to the place, because he won't believe the signposts. He can accomplish nothing because he has no faith.

(b) Picture a world without belief. No farmer would sow corn. No one would work for another. The workman would say, " How do I know that you will pay me at night ? " The employer would say, " If I pay in advance, how do I know that you will do any work ? " No one would trust money to a bank. No one would buy a newspaper. Civilization is built on mutual faith.

(c) The Bible gives one picture of a disbelieving Christian. St. Thomas was a real disciple ; he loved Christ, had worked for Him, and been ready to die for Him (John xi. 16). But, when our Lord rose from the dead, Thomas could not believe it. " Except I see in His Hands the print of the nails, and put my finger into the print of the nails, and put my hand into His Side, I will not believe."

He ought to have believed. The evidence was overwhelming. He knew that his friends were neither fools nor liars, and many of them had seen Jesus alive. But he disbelieved ; and so he missed the happiest week that the Church has ever known. When every one else was rejoicing in the Resurrection, he went about with a long face thinking that Christ was dead. At the end of the week the Lord pointed out to him what he had missed. " Blessed are they that have not seen, and yet have believed " (John xx. 29).

MISBELIEVERS.

(a) Disbelief is fatal, but misbelief is almost as bad. We must take all reasonable care to secure that what we believe is true. A wrong belief is bound to show itself In wrong actions. (The word "miscreant," which originally meant "misbeliever," came to mean " wrong-doer.")

The Thugs in India were intensely religious people. They were most of them highly respectable merchants and farmers. But they believed that the goddess they served demanded human sacrifices : so every October they wandered through India secretly strangling every unprotected person they could find, and the Government had the greatest difficulty in suppressing them.

(b) A wrong belief will have disastrous effects on our own life. Think of a man who believes in a quack doctor. He gets ill, and instead of going to a hospital to be properly treated, he wastes money on bottles of coloured water. He will probably die.

(c) This is one great use of the Church's Creeds. They guard us against false beliefs. The Apostles' Creed gives a number of points which Christians of all centuries have agreed to be true. They have been challenged, criticized, sifted, discussed again and again, but every discussion has made the majority of Christians more and more satisfied that they are the truth. So they form a standard by which we can test our beliefs.

A standard is always useful. Once every one set his watch by a different standard, one by the station clock, one by the church clock, one by the post-office clock, and all were different. Now Big Ben comes over the wireless, and all accept that as correct. So the Creed is a standard by which we can correct our own religious views.

MAKE-BELIEVERS.

(a) Beware of Disbelief. Beware of Misbelief. And Make-belief is almost as bad. Much that is called Belief is only Make-belief. Schopenhaur, a famous German philosopher, gained many disciples by teaching that life was not worth living and that it was better to be dead. But, when cholera broke out in Frankfort, he was one of the first to fly to a place of safety.

(b) In the war, when the young men enlisted, middle-aged men declared that they wished that they could go too. But, when the age limit was raised, they crowded the tribunals begging to be excused. Women, who had loudly expressed their wish to go to the front, when the Women's Corps was formed preferred to stay at home.

(c) In Religion too it is fatally easy to imagine we believe. The test of a real faith is Does it lead to action? " Faith without works is dead."

A map in the British Museum shows that as early as 1540 the Portuguese believed in the existence

of the continent that we call Australia. But they made no use of their belief. Later Englishmen heard of the belief, and took possession of the land. The Creed we really believe, is spoken not by our lips but by our lives. The Apostles' Creed will only become a real belief to us when we act on it, and lay hold of all that it declares to exist.

BELIEVERS.

(a) Draw illustrations of true belief from Hebrews xi. Abraham, leaving the greatest city of the ancient world, leading his clansmen across the desert to found in unknown lands a People of God.

(b) Moses, renouncing Pharaoh's court, and throwing in his lot with the brickfield slaves, leading them out into the Wilderness to find a land of liberty.

(c) The Martyrs, tortured, scourged, imprisoned, stoned, sawn asunder, winning victory for their cause by their willingness to die.

(d) The Creed invites us each to say, " I believe "; not merely " The Church believes," but "I believe." The Church's Creed is useless to us, unless we make it our own. But, when we believe, it becomes a source of power within. Ubi fides, ibi lux et robur," (motto of the town of Birkenhead) Where there is Faith, there is Light and Strength."

If you want to achieve, you have got to believe

With a faith that is strong and true

For a misbelief or a disbelief

Or a half belief won't do.

You can't succeed, till you get a Creed

That will brace you and see you through.

Catastrophe Surfaces

In mathematics, catastrophe theory is a branch of bifurcation theory in the study of dynamical systems; it is also a particular special case of more general singularity theory in geometry.

Bifurcation theory studies and classifies phenomena characterized by sudden shifts in behavior arising from small changes in circumstances, analysing how the qualitative nature of equation solutions depends on the parameters that appear in the equation. This may lead to sudden and dramatic changes, for example the unpredictable timing and magnitude of a landslide.

Catastrophe Surfaces

It is getting colder now, so cold
A hot day, warm, bright sunlight
You would think a season of delight
But now shadows are taking hold

A tale of contrasts, when all told
Converging opposites, such plight
It is getting colder now, so cold
A hot day, warm, bright sunlight

On the precipice, the edge, behold
Falling, falling, from great height
Catastrophe surface brings the night
A sudden drop within the fold
It is getting colder now, so cold

The German Underground Hospital - Part 4

In 1971, shortly after decimal currency was introduced, Mr R. Ellington produced this small booklet, price 13p, which was about 2 shillings and 6 pence in old money, or half-a-crown, about the German Underground Hospital.

The research into that has increased, and the site now, under the title "Jersey War Tunnels" provides vastly more history of the Occupation as well as the history of the tunnels themselves. It has far more audio-visual means of telling its story, but back in 1971, this was what visitors to Jersey would have had. It's a very personal booklet, as Mr Ellington not only tells as much as he knows about the hospital from records, but also includes eyewitnesses who he spoke to at the time. It is in that respect, a time-capsule of social history.

Parts 1-3 can be found here:
http://tonymusings.blogspot.com/2018/05/the-german-underground-hospital-part-1.html
http://tonymusings.blogspot.com/2018/05/the-german-underground-hospital-part-2.html
http://tonymusings.blogspot.com/2018/05/the-german-underground-hospital-part-3.html

The German Underground Hospital - Part 4
by R.M. Ellington

CONCRETING and PLASTERING

After the surrender by the Italians to the Allies in 1944, even Italian workers appeared in the German Underground Hospital, though whether as slave workers or contract workers has not been established

By this time all the tunnelling had been completed and the main work consisted of concreting and plastering the walls of the tunnels, as well as the installation of all the equipment, the electrical system, heating system, drilling the water well, etc., etc.

It was at this period that such local labour as was used, was put to work.

The method of concreting the walls was as follows:-

When concreting the floor, a nine inch footing was formed on each side. This formed the base for the shuttering which made the box frame for the concreting (see Diagram). By using a series of planks laid on top of each other horizontally and shoring them up and blocking off the ends, a box frame would be constructed to the height of the straight part of each wall (approximately 6' to 7'). Marks can be seen to this day on the walls of the German Underground Hospital showing how planks of different widths and thickness had to be used according to what was available. The box frame was then filled with concrete and left to dry. This method was continued all the way along the walls of each tunnel. In all, nearly 4,000 tons of concrete were employed in this work.

The curved roof was constructed in the following manner: - The Germans had prepared a number of curved wooden frames which were laid across the top of the straight concreted parts of the wall which had now dried and thoroughly hardened. Planks would be laid lengthways from one to the next of these curved formers, thus forming and enclosed box section for the curved part of the tunnel roof.

After removing any protruding pieces of rock with a hammer, chisel or long bar , this would be filled with concrete from the front of the section pushing the liquid concrete further and further in until it came to a stop at the end of the section (see Diagram).

By and large, the majority of the plastering was done by local labour. They first came on to the site on a system of 5 ten hour shifts per week earning £8 per week, but they complained to the Germans about the timing and conditions and after some bargaining, were put on a piece-work rate. This was assessed on the following system. A crew consisting of five plasterers and three labourers would have to plaster 35 sq. yards per day including having to move their own scaffolding as they moved from area to area. Under the new piece-work rates, their earnings rose to £12 per week, an almost un- heard of figure in those days.

The German foreman on the site was a Sergeant called Fritz (surname unknown) and they would call him in at the end of each shift, show him they had done their required yardage and then go off home, irrespective of how many hours they had worked. Most of these local workers came and went to work by bicycle. The Germans had occupied virtually all the hotels on the Island at that time and the furnishings in the hotels which were brought up by lorry to- wards the end when all the construction had been finished were taken mainly from these hotels, specifically beds and wardrobes (so I have it on first hand information) from the Grand Hotel on the Esplanade.

After the concreting and plastering was done, the divisions for the various side rooms, such as the kitchens, store-rooms, etc., were constructed of brick. The construction of these brick walls was done in the main by the Italian labour force imported in 1944 and plastered over by the same local labour force that did the plastering on the tunnel walls.

General Todt and the Visit of Field Marshal Rommel

It would appear that both General Todt, who was head of the Todt Organisation and Field Marshall Rommel, alias The Desert Fox, came to Jersey to examine all the German fortifications including the Under- ground Hospital.

Once again it must be stressed that these are theories put forward by individuals and no concrete evidence is available to back them up.

Richard Mayne, who has recently written a book on the occupation of the Channel Islands, and in the process has been corresponding with various German Officers who were part of the occupation forces, is trying to establish whether there is any truth in this story. If Rommel did visit the Island, it would be some time after the German evacuation from North Africa, probably in the latter half of 194

The Shirt and the Diesel Oil

One of the most amusing anecdotes that was told to me by Con Donoghue, was an incident which happened one night after the blasting had been completed at its usual time of 2 a.m. The German guard was lured to the entrance by a member of the local population who had a shirt for sale. This shirt with the pre-war valuation of approximately 6/11 d was offered to the German at around 40 Reichmarks, approximately £2.

During the period the guard was outside doing his bargaining, an old coat was placed over a drum containing light diesel oil (probably used for the compressors). A hose pipe was attached to the tap and run along the floor covered by rubble to camouflage it and when the German came back inside, he sat down on the old coat on the barrel while the locals were quietly siphoning off the diesel oil while he was actually sitting on the barrel. In many of the country districts in Jersey where there was no electricity at that time, light diesel oil was virtually the only fuel available on which their paraffin lamps would burn efficiently and without smoke and thus there was always a ready market for it.

These two adverts reproduced by kind permission of the Jersey Evening Post.

Neither of the two adverts met with any marked success, in spite of the tremendous incentive offered in regard to both money as well as extra rations. This cannot be too strongly stressed, as it shows up the local population in a very good light.

It is mainly due to the failure of the advertisement for interpreters that they made use of Conn Donoghue (see text) under the usual compulsory terms applicable to people who had been up before the German commandant.

A copy of this document was sent by the Bailiff's office to the Connétable of St. Peter on 22.9.1942.

REFERENCE DOCUMENT 1.)

Most of the farms referred to in this document are within a 1/2 mile radius of the German Underground Hospital and/or the underground tunnels in St. Peter's Valley by the side of the Victoria Hotel.

It will be noted that under paragraph 4.) the information passed on to the farmers concerned, states that-the construction of shelter trenches was the reason for the evacuation, though it would appear the true reason was the German's desire to keep the construction of the Underground Hospital as quiet as possible, and to keep the area clear of all non-essential personnel.

REFERENCE DOCUMENT 2.)

This would appear to be a warning mainly to the farmers near the slave worker's encampment on Goose Green Marsh, and near the entirely Russian encampment at La Moye.

Anomalies Between States Assemblies

Looking at the propositions lodged for the next States sitting, it suddenly struck me that some had been lodged by Ministers, such as Alan Maclean and Eddie Noel, who could hardly be in a position to speak in the States proposing them as they will no longer be part of the assembly.

I put the question to Dr Mark Egan, the States Greffier, who very swiftly told me what I needed to know. My thanks to him for being so helpful in answering both my questions.

My question:

I am curious to know what happens when a proposition is lodged by a previous Minister who is no longer in the States Assembly.

An example is:

“States of Jersey Development Company Limited: re-appointment of non-executive directors
Lodged au Greffe on 4th April 2018 by the Minister for Treasury and Resources”

Does the new Minister have to take up that proposition to present it, or can they withdraw it completely if they so choose? They might want to withdraw it and replace it with a proposition containing changes to their liking.

While they might bring amendments, those amendments might not pass and the original proposition stand. I would be interested if you could point me to the rules governing this situation.

I would have thought it very curious if they had to take a proposition forward unless they agreed with it unless there were very compelling legal reasons for doing so.

I cannot imagine, for instance, an incoming government in the UK being bound to implement the legislative programme of its predecessor, especially if there was a change in Party and Prime Minister.

The Greffier replied:

Thanks for getting in touch – I’m always happy to assist.

Ministerial propositions are lodged by the office of the minister, not by the individual, so they can remain in place even if the post holder changes. An incoming minister can take a look at what’s been done in their name and withdraw a proposition if they so wish. That would usually be preferable to lodging amendments, for the reasons you have set out, unless there was a timetabling reason which meant that withdrawal was impractical or undesirable.

The situation in the UK is different because parliament is dissolved in order for an election to take place and all of the outstanding business before parliament is lost at that point. However, behind the scenes, ministers do often have to carry on with routine business left over by their predecessors and there will sometimes be legal or political reasons why ministers have to carry on with a course set by their predecessors, even though they’d rather do something different.

A Further Question.

One other thing that struck me. The rules state:

“Current Ministers who will not be members after 10am on Friday 1 June leave office as Ministers at that time. Between this time and 7th/8th June their ministerial offices will be vacant and, as happens at present with a holiday or absence, the Chief Minister will either discharge these ministerial functions himself or appoint another Minister who is still in office to do this for a few days.”

That assumes, of course, that the Chief Minister is still in the States, or (presumably) the Deputy Chief Minister! If they failed to be elected, and there were just a few Ministers remaining, who would take on that duty for a few days? As far as I am aware there is no “pecking order” among Ministers outside of CM and Deputy CM.

Would this situation be like that in the UK, where the civil servants would just keep things ticking over until new appointments are made?

The Greffier replied:

No, the law provides for the Chief Minister to remain in that post until such time as the new Council of Ministers comes into being, irrespective of whether or not they have remained in the States. I believe that happened with Terry Le Sueur, who stayed on as Chief Minister briefly following his retirement from the Assembly, in accordance with the law

My concluding thoughts:

It seems quite extraordinary that a Chief Minister should remain in office until such time as the new Council of Ministers comes into being, even if they are no longer a member of the States, however short the time, and despite a new Assembly meeting. At that point in time, if not in the States, they are effectively no longer an elected politician, and I do not think they should have the potential authority to behave as if they were.

In Jersey, we do not actually dissolve the Assembly until the new Assembly is sworn in, and even then, a Chief Minister who is no longer part of the States remains in office but not part of the States Assembly until a new Council of Ministers (both Chief Minister and all Ministers) have been appointed by the States.

I think the States of Jersey and Election Law needs reviewing to tackle these issues. While they ensure a continuity of governance, the downside is a Chief Minister who is for probably around a week but who is no longer a Member of the Assembly. Once a Chief Minister is appointed, at that point at the very latest, the old one should no longer hold the post. Waiting until Ministers are also appointed is an unnecessary delay.

This was obviously designed as part of the process of moving from a Committee System to Ministerial Government, but while it may be currently legal, it is ethically extremely dubious.

The legitimacy of any politician should come from them being democratically elected until such time as new elections take place – and in Jersey, that is when the new Assembly is sworn in. At this point, a former Chief Minister who may not be part of the States has the power, but not the mandate. They have no democratic justification for being in office.

It is time for the new Assembly to revisit the law and change it.

Crimes of the Season

The last Midsomer Murders of the present series was on Sunday. I like Midsomer Murders, the more so since Neil Dudgeon took over from John Nettles. Originally Nettles was very good, but he rather outstayed his welcome, being far older than any Inspector had a right to be, and the scripts had become rather tired. While it was a good idea to give Barnaby a home life, it always seemed just that bit contrived with Nettle’s screen family, while Dudgeon’s screen family, with now an infant, and a second dog (after the first died in real life of old age) comes across as far more realistic.

One of the appeals of Midsomer is the sense of place. This is, however, a kind of Agatha Christie village life, peopled by eccentrics of varying descriptions and dispositions, and as in a small community, there is conflict and murder. The murder may be brutal but it is never gory, this is a cosy kind of murder, in which we have to see past the red herrings to find the real criminal, and along which, we have wonderful pen-sketches of characters.

Talking Pictures has a detective series Gideon’s Way starring John Gregson in the title role as Commander George Gideon of Scotland Yard, with Alexander Davion as his assistant, Detective Chief Inspector David Keen. While never quite up to date with the “swinging sixties”, it was short in mid-sixties London, but almost looks back to the late 1950s. Like Inspector Barnaby, we catch glimpses of Gideon’s family, his wife and two sons. A filmed series, the extensive location shooting makes it a veritable time capsule giving an authentic view of London in 1964/65.

A sense of place, albeit a very different place, is what I like about the Inspector Chen radio plays. Adapted from the books by Qiu Xiaolong, they are set in Shanghai in the 1990s at the point when the People's Republic of China is making momentous changes, and feature Chief Inspector Chen Cao, a poetry-quoting cop with integrity, and his sidekick Detective Yu.

The plays delve into China ancient and modern, the culture, the cuisine, history, politics as well as the crime itself. The music also adds to the tone, and they transport the listener to a very different culture, but one which is palpably real, and often exotic and sensuous. The latest, Don't Cry, Tai Lake, takes the listener on a journey in which environmental pollution and the newly emerging entrepreneurial factories are at odds with one another, and also has poetry and romance entwined with a murder.

Repeating on the Drama channel, Inspector Jean Darblay played by Stephanie Turner is the lead in Juliette Bravo, which is set in a small police station in the fictional town of Hartley in Lancashire. First broadcast on 30 August 1980, this is a million miles from the cosy villages of Midsomer, but the sense of place, of the North of England, is palpable.

As a police procedural drama series, there is not always a detection element, and the stories are relatively slight – very few murders in place – but the situations they deal with are very real. It is like having a snapshot into the period and the people of the 1980s, and that strong sense of place, helped by the location filming, of which there is plenty, makes it a very distinctive drama.

A distinctive drama of another kind was “A Very English Scandal” written by Russell T Davies, adapted from the book of the same name, but also informed from meetings with the principals still alive or those who knew them. Jeremy Thorpe, as portrayed brilliantly by Hugh Grant, is a monster, but an all too human monster, whose old Etonian background helped him to avoid the pitfalls of his illegal behaviour.

In one scene, an accusation by Norman Scott is transcribed at a police station, gets passed along in an envelope from department to department, being read, put back in the envelope and getting an extra signature on the envelope every time, until finally it ends in MI5 where it is locked in a safe! Things did not happen quite like that, but as a shorthand for the way in which the "old boys" network protected their own, the sequence works perfectly.

Whether Thorpe would have been such a monstrous character if homosexuality had been legalised is a question that might well come from watching it. Certainly, with the MP and Peer who both take up the fight to legalise homosexuality, there is a clear sense of how the law could hound people to death – almost literally, some people killed themselves as a result of the treatment by the legal system. That comes across strongly, as does the fact that Norman Scott, while wildly unstable - a brilliant performance by Ben Wilshaw - was also brave enough not to hide his sexuality while Thorpe and those in his circle did.

Thorpe comes across as charming, brilliant, talented, clever, but also quite ruthless in the pursuit of a political career in which glittering prizes were seemingly close to be taken. I got the impression he would have been just as ruthless even if he did not have to hide his homosexuality.

This has a stellar cast, and again a real sense of period, as well as having a lightness of touch in the direction which, together with the incidental music, suggests elements of black comedy in the unfolding events. I look forward to next week. It's not a detective series or a police procedural, but crimes it has a plenty.

Making the Election Count

Different Ways of Counting

There has been a lot of banging on about "no change", e.g. the CTV comments: "With only 2 sitting members losing their seats (Juliette Gallichan and Simon Bree), the mood for change was rather more muted than we thought."

There actually was a lot of change with new candidates who hadn't been in the States in St Martin, St John, St Peter, St Mary, St Clement, St Helier, St Lawrence, St Saviour. Lots of contested elections, and quite a lot of new faces.

So there was a lot of change, but because it didn't involve so many sitting members losing seats - because they tried for Senators and left vacancies, or retired from the States, it wasn't so noticeable.

Vote Team??

How well did the strategy of “Vote Team” work for Reform? On the basis of the statistics, not very well at all.

St Brelade No 2

Montfort Tadier: Current Deputy of St Brelade No 2 (Reform Jersey) – ELECTED 1193

Garel Tucker: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 454

Admittedly she was not well at the start for quite a few weeks, but the same pattern emerges elsewhere:

St Clement

Samantha Morrison: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 596

Cloe Freeman: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 791

No sign of “Vote Team”. Nearly 200 votes adrift.

St Helier No 1

Kelly Langdon: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 441

Yann Mash: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 314

John McNichol: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 435

A degree of convergence between Langdon and McNichol, but Mash is over 100 votes out on a limb.

St Helier 3/4

Julian Rogers: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) 631

Mary Ayling-Philip: Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey) 706

Anne Southern: Previous Candidate (Reform Jersey) 790

Closer but Rogers is 70 behind Ayling-Philip who is 80 behind Southern. No real “Vote Team”

Carina Alves: New Candidate (Reform Jersey) – ELECTED 605

Geoff Southern : Current Deputy of St Helier No 2 (Reform Jersey) –ELECTED 628

Rob Ward : New Candidate (Reform Jersey) - -ELECTED 612

Virtually the only example of “Vote Team” working. Very close votes.

Exit Polls - Which One Counted?

The Bailiwick Express Exit Poll suggested that the top two Senators tonight will be Deputies Tracey Vallois and Kristina Moore, but said that "it looks like being too tight to call on who will finish in first place". Below that they placed John Le Fondre and Ian Gorst - he got in but in a lower place. 

After that came Sam Mézec and they got that completely wrong. Then they say: "But the final three places are simply too close to call. In the mix are Senators Lyndon Farnham and Sarah Ferguson, Deputy Simon Brée, Constable Steve Pallett, along with newcomers Anthony Lewis and Moz Scott." .

In the end, one did fall, Simon Brée, but while good at the top end, the errors increased as they went down the line, and it became rather like the celebrated Morcambe and Wise sketch with Andre Previn - all the right candidates but not necessarily in the right order!

Meanwhile, the JEP have pulled the page with their exit poll, and studying it reveals why.

"REFORM Jersey chairman Deputy Sam Mézec is the favourite to top the poll in tonight’s Senatorial election, according to the results of a JEP exit poll."

"He is followed by five candidates in a tight group separated by a small number of votes: Deputy Tracey Vallois, Deputy John Le Fondré, Deputy Kristina Moore, Senator Sarah Ferguson and Constable Steve Pallet. And it may turn out to be a nail-biting night for Chief Minister Ian Gorst who, according to the poll, will finish eighth, a small number of votes behind Senator Lyndon Farnham."

"But just outside the top eight, in another small group with just a few votes between them, are three other candidates: Moz Scott, Deputy Simon Brée and Anthony Lewis."

They put a caveat that: "There is very little separating the top six, and those occupying places seven and eight are not too far behind. And with every exit poll having a margin for error, the exact placing of the top eight is too close to call."

But all told, their exit poll was so wide of the mark with Sam Mézec that it must have been a huge embarrassment for the JEP, especially as their media rivals were so much closer - so no wonder they removed it as soon as possible.

Poster Update - Outstanding Numbers Around

A number of posters are still around. However...

I hear that Fiona O’Sullivan has been unwell, and she tweeted to say that has caused a delay in taking down her posters. I appreciate people are keen to see all the posters down, but we do need to show some understanding of the candidates individual circumstances.

From yesterday morning-there's a Moz Scott one and Ant Lewis poster at Les Quennevais by Waitrose and also a Bree one further down the road. Mezec, Tadier and Tucker one at Corbiere. Also Gorst had one up at Samares Manor yesterday, not sure if it's still there though today.

Sam Mezec still on lampost second entrance Clos de Roncier, coming from Grouville End.

Mike Dun rather amusingly commented:

“These posters will be worth more than Jersey Railway Station nameboards in 50 years time. Grab them now while you can and help pay for your long term care when elections are entirely electronic and the candidates are just holograms.” 

Post Election Review

Three Different Perspectives on going for Chief Minister

The Declared Contenders

It appears that Simon Bree, when his team suggested he should try for Chief Minister, thought it only fair that the electorate should know as well. Ian Gorst declared beforehand that he would be standing for Chief Minister, as did Lyndon Farnham. They stood with the electorate knowing their intentions, and it could be suggested, as Frank Walker did, that in the case of Simon Bree, this cost him votes.

The Unknown Contender

John le Fondré only seems to have made his mind up after being elected as a Senator. He made the announcement only after seeing his result, and the JEP survey in January 2018 was only for existing Ministers. This means the electorate didn’t really know what his intentions were at the time of the election.

The Vacillating Contender

Kristina More provides a third perspective. In June 2017, she said was “amused” by claims that she had a “plan” to become the Island's first female Chief Minister. She said: 'As yet I haven't made a decision about the next election, and I would hope that Senator Gorst will continue in office.'”

The same was true in January 2018, where she kept her options reserved: she said that she was not in a position to comment on her ambitions yet and would make an announcement early next month.

But in May 14 2018, shortly before the election, she said she would be ‘happy to remain’ in her current position, giving the electorate the impression she would not be standing. Yet after in election, proving that even 4 days is a long time in politics, she declared that she was a supporter of Senator Gorst but would not rule out challenging him for the Chief Minister’s job. This has certainly given the electorate mixed views as to how decisive she is, and how easily she can change her mind between polling day, and the day after.

Thank You, Thank You, Thank You

On election night, what would you do if you were standing and got elected or re-elected as Deputy? Possibly celebrate the night away at your campaign HQ with friends and supporters, and wait for the Senatorial election results, while drinking something alcoholic.

Or... you could go out on the dark streets, and put up on your election posters a message of thanks for the electorate to see as they went to work or took children to school the following day. This is what both Jeremy Macon and Jess Perchard did – Jeremy with stickers, Jess with felt-tip – but to the same effect. Isn’t it nice to see politicians who show gratitude like that to their electorate? It was a very thoughtful thing to do, and I’m here commending them for doing so.

Jersey and the Bannermen

I rather like seeing the election posters and banners going up before an election. It gives a degree of excitement to what might otherwise be a rather bland election. But they haven’t all come down – there’s a stray Truscott or two, quite a few Reform ones, several Simon Brees, a Moz Scott or two.

The older campaigners – I was tempted to say “old warhorses”! – are very good at this, and all the existing States members have removed all of theirs, apart from one I spotted – a stray Le Fondré more than half covered by foliage – it’s easy to see why that one was missed. It is disappointing to lose an election, and I can understand people being despondent, but it is a duty to do, so please take down than poster!

As I understand it, after a period of time, the Department of Infrastructure will send people round to take them down – and charge the candidates for their time.

Election Expenses Scandal

At the moment, election expenses can be seen at the States Greffe – during office hours, which does not include lunchtime, and indeed is virtually impossible for anyone working. This is a appalling! I remember when the Register of Interests was likewise difficult to access – now that is rightly online, and so should election expenses be.

It is supposed to be in the public domain, but the restrictions make that almost impossible for most of us to access, so can some kind soul go there and take down ALL the names and totals, and post it somewhere so we can all see – rather than the selected snippets by the media. Or send it to me, and I‘ll do that.

At the present, we can't easily access something supposed to be in the public domain - Election Expenses - and that is a scandal. Can a States member bring a proposition to change this please? A small change,  but one that would be good for transparent democracy.