Jersey's Shameful Lack of Transparency

Guernsey Figures

The Absence of Pie Chart Breakdowns

One of the most useful representations of statistics in Guernsey is the pie chart which gives a breakdown of cases which is shown above. These are absent from Jersey reporting which merely focuses on overall case numbers.

That 30% of cases also come from contacts also suggests that social distancing and some kind of lockdown is a good idea. That's where a pie chart is useful.

But it can also be seen straight away that 28%, nearly a third of all cases, comes from clusters in care homes.

Now that is significant in seeing what effect social distancing and lockdowns are having. What is apparent is that clusters in care homes (where social distancing is near to impossible) are providing a clear perspective on growing numbers of cases.

The Clustering Distortion effect in Small Populations

Where the numbers of cases in general are large, as in the UK, adding care homes will alter the mix, but not as significantly because there are larger numbers involved. Where small numbers are involved it provides a greater impact as it ramps up the numbers outside of the general lockdown zone.

The high numbers for care homes show why protecting care homes has become a priority and Guernsey has taken to testing all residents and staff where an infection has been found within a care home. We know that symptoms can be mild, and therefore hardly noticable, so referring only cases in care homes where residents or staff display noticeable enough symptoms is a bad idea.

Jersey has not revealed anything like this level of data, with the Health Minister, Richard Renouf, hiding behind a spurious argument from confidentiality that means he will not identify care homes. But he does not have to. Guernsey's Information Commissioner has no problems with a case grouping such as that shown above, because it shows care homes in general, and not specifically any one by name.

The inability to have this kind of transparency means that everyone is in the dark. Numbers may be rising, but if they are rising as a result of tests inside care homes, then that needs to be taken out of the equation when examining how general lockdown policy is working in the wider community. Otherwise, these clusters will distort the general trends.

Jersey provides a plot the 'curve' of the increase of coronavirus cases, but this by itself does not show the clustering effect of care homes, which is a statistical outlier from statistics in the general lockdown policy.

Also Jersey is only testing symptomatic cases in care homes (residents and staff) which means the virus has a far greater probability of expanding than in Guernsey within care homes, leading again to a distorting effect on the "curve" as well as putting residents lives at risk.

To give an illustration of how clustering can effect smaller populations in a way that it does not for larger populations, consider the average height of actors working in all of the movies in Hollywood in the 1930s. As you'd expect, it averages out. But if you considered the average height of actors working on "The Wizard of Oz"(1939), the presence of so many smaller height "Munchkins" would significantly affect the statistics for that movie.

Addressing the Cluster Curve

The failure to address the clustering effect in care homes is not limited to Jersey, and the Irish Times explains that a concerted catch-up is needed everywhere. However, what they point out applies just as much to Jersey.

"Although much of the contagion has been by community spread of the virus, public health experts are particularly wary of clusters of cases. According to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) a cluster is three or more cases in an institution within a 72-hour period. Latest figures show there are now 86 clusters in nursing homes across the State, representing a sharp rise in recent days. In addition, 33 outbreaks have occurred in residential institutions and 16 in community hospitals or long-stay units."

"The initial focus of the HSE and the Department of Health was to increase community testing and improve the readiness of acute hospitals to deal with a surge of coronavirus-related admissions. It meant there was a relative lack of planning for nursing home and long-stay facilities, with a concerted catch-up effort now required."

Care Homes and Mortality

In France almost a third of all coronavirus deaths have been of residents in care homes. In Italy an anomalously high number of recent deaths in the country’s care homes has prompted calls for a parliamentary inquiry. In Germany there have been reports of deaths in homes totalling hundreds across the country. Ireland reported coronavirus clusters in 86 nursing homes on Wednesday, more than double the number from last Saturday, fuelling accusations that authorities moved too slowly to protect some of those most vulnerable to the disease.

We need to add to the mantra "Stay Home and Save Lives", the mantra: test all staff and residents at care homes and save lives. It is NOT enough to just test obviously symptomatic cases. The global statistics on care homes demonstrate that. Not to test properly and thoroughly is negligence on the part of the Government of Jersey, and to make facile excuses that it can't be done - when Guernsey managed it - displays a staggering contempt.

Guernsey Figures

The Absence of Age Demographic Breakdown

Guernsey has also released a chart showing a breakdown between male and female cases. Now when we combine this with the pie chart, we can surmise that the tendency for older cases in the 85+ area is because firstly, more women than men fall statistically into that group (they live longer) and secondly, more are likely to be resident in care homes at that age.

Guernsey's data could do with improvement, for example, a split of the growth curve between care homes and the rest of the community would be helpful. [My error - they have done this. It's brilliant!] Jersey should of course also follow suit with this and better charts. At present, there is a shameful lack of transparency compared to our Guernsey counterparts, and it seems little will for the Health Minister to do better rather than hide behind spurious issues of confidentially - spurious - because Guernsey, which has a smaller population manages to do this so much better.