Random Thoughts on Coronavirus and Other Matters
The Press Conference
I’ve just listened to the press conference earlier today. The presence of Dr Turnbull to answer questions made quite a difference. A mediated answer by a Minister – which is what we’ve had for a while – has meant that there is not always clarity, and there can be difficulty answering extra questions, and matters can be “lost in translation”.
What has been missing from the statistics is the background information which Dr Turnbull was able to supply. As the BBC reported:
Six more cases of Coronavirus have been confirmed in Jersey over the weekend. It brings the total number of cases to 303 in the island. Chief Minister John Le Fondré said the jump was expected as the number of tests increased. Dr Susan Turnbull added the criteria for those who could be tested had also been expanded. She said the new cases were all linked to hospital or care home settings, and none had been connected to community transmission. "There's no reason to think that it's likely to have been the relaxation in the last couple of weeks because those have been about increasing outdoor activity.
Richard Renouf indicated that these were caught by ramped up testing, and if I understood him correctly, at least some were asymptomatic.
Why is this important? Because the cases were linked to hospital or care home settings, they were not a result of the exit strategy easing of lockdown, which is very reassuring. But they are not mentioned in the general statistics page, which is where they should be, rather than waiting for a press conference to reveal that information.
They show that the lifting of restrictions has no led to more community transmission, and that is an incredibly important piece of information, without which the numbers themselves lack context. It means that matters are, for the moment, under control, and community transmission must be very close to zero. What would be as useful would be to know the last date at which a case was community transmission rather than a healthcare or care home setting.
Of course there is always the risk that from the care home or community, the virus may be transmitted into the wider community, and that is why the focus of testing should be there, so that rapid isolation of those infected can prevent that. On that score, especially as we have in-house testing, the pending results of 135 are very disappointing, and compares very badly with Guernsey and the Isle of Man. Any delay in test results increases the risk of transmission before isolation. We seem to be back almost in the bad old days of reliance on UK testing.
So far, the press conference was better, but reporting of figures still leaves a lot to be desired.
A Highly Localised Herd Immunity
While the WHO thinks herd immunity is highly dangerous as an idea, the testing and retesting of key health workers and other key workers with a swab test means that hopefully the virus - even when asymptomatic - can be contained. If a large enough number have had the virus in one form or another, that particular cohort will be better placed - it will be a highly localised herd immunity, and it will also protect against future outbreaks.
What is key also is that those who have had the virus should have some kind of identification, as they would be less at risk when dealing with any patients with the virus. So while not a quarantine free certificate, some kind of visible marker would be helpful within the confines of their job.
U-Turn on Antibody Testing
The Press Conference
I’ve just listened to the press conference earlier today. The presence of Dr Turnbull to answer questions made quite a difference. A mediated answer by a Minister – which is what we’ve had for a while – has meant that there is not always clarity, and there can be difficulty answering extra questions, and matters can be “lost in translation”.
What has been missing from the statistics is the background information which Dr Turnbull was able to supply. As the BBC reported:
Six more cases of Coronavirus have been confirmed in Jersey over the weekend. It brings the total number of cases to 303 in the island. Chief Minister John Le Fondré said the jump was expected as the number of tests increased. Dr Susan Turnbull added the criteria for those who could be tested had also been expanded. She said the new cases were all linked to hospital or care home settings, and none had been connected to community transmission. "There's no reason to think that it's likely to have been the relaxation in the last couple of weeks because those have been about increasing outdoor activity.
Richard Renouf indicated that these were caught by ramped up testing, and if I understood him correctly, at least some were asymptomatic.
Why is this important? Because the cases were linked to hospital or care home settings, they were not a result of the exit strategy easing of lockdown, which is very reassuring. But they are not mentioned in the general statistics page, which is where they should be, rather than waiting for a press conference to reveal that information.
They show that the lifting of restrictions has no led to more community transmission, and that is an incredibly important piece of information, without which the numbers themselves lack context. It means that matters are, for the moment, under control, and community transmission must be very close to zero. What would be as useful would be to know the last date at which a case was community transmission rather than a healthcare or care home setting.
Of course there is always the risk that from the care home or community, the virus may be transmitted into the wider community, and that is why the focus of testing should be there, so that rapid isolation of those infected can prevent that. On that score, especially as we have in-house testing, the pending results of 135 are very disappointing, and compares very badly with Guernsey and the Isle of Man. Any delay in test results increases the risk of transmission before isolation. We seem to be back almost in the bad old days of reliance on UK testing.
So far, the press conference was better, but reporting of figures still leaves a lot to be desired.
A Highly Localised Herd Immunity
While the WHO thinks herd immunity is highly dangerous as an idea, the testing and retesting of key health workers and other key workers with a swab test means that hopefully the virus - even when asymptomatic - can be contained. If a large enough number have had the virus in one form or another, that particular cohort will be better placed - it will be a highly localised herd immunity, and it will also protect against future outbreaks.
What is key also is that those who have had the virus should have some kind of identification, as they would be less at risk when dealing with any patients with the virus. So while not a quarantine free certificate, some kind of visible marker would be helpful within the confines of their job.
U-Turn on Antibody Testing
 |
| A Turnaround on Testing |
Having called a halt on antibody testing, the Health Minister has done an about turn. As the JEP reports:
Between 8,000 and 10,000 people in Jersey will be given an antibody test for Coronavirus in the next few weeks, the chief minister has announced. Senator Le Fondré said the island was entering "the next stage" of its testing capacity, after it had initially invited 500 households to be tested for the antibodies.
I’m sure the rapid change of direction must have had something to do with Tambar Park’s private test facility for antibodies, which provided competition to the government, a loss of control over the testing regime, and a reduced rate for health and care professionals. Now they are on the priority list for the resumption of the government scheme!
Poor marks for education
Under plans being considered by Education in Jersey, classes may go to school on alternate days, or mornings and afternoons, to help keep space between pupils and staff. Those in school would be taught across a number of classrooms, while the other half of the school would learn from home. During a Scrutiny hearing on Friday, Education Minister Tracey Valois also revealed that the introduction of contact tracing technology for pupils was also being considered.
Primary pupils in Guernsey will be able to attend school for two days a week from 8 June, the States has announced. Half of each year will attend on Monday and Tuesday and the other half on Thursday and Friday, with Wednesday used for enhanced cleaning. Methinks Guernsey has a better strategy!
Clearly Guernsey has thought about cross-contamination from surfaces in a manner which Jersey has not! As usual, they have a strategy which shows the hand of their scientific advisors. Ours is clueless. Mornings and afternoons mean that any surface contaminated by contact will still almost certainly still be there in the afternoon. And you are not just talking desks – door handles, push buttons, toilet handles, toilet doors, taps etc.
Alternative days are slightly better, but still not brilliant as the virus can stay active for 24 hours.
Primary pupils in Guernsey will be able to attend school for two days a week from 8 June, the States has announced. Half of each year will attend on Monday and Tuesday and the other half on Thursday and Friday, with Wednesday used for enhanced cleaning. Methinks Guernsey has a better strategy!
Clearly Guernsey has thought about cross-contamination from surfaces in a manner which Jersey has not! As usual, they have a strategy which shows the hand of their scientific advisors. Ours is clueless. Mornings and afternoons mean that any surface contaminated by contact will still almost certainly still be there in the afternoon. And you are not just talking desks – door handles, push buttons, toilet handles, toilet doors, taps etc.
Alternative days are slightly better, but still not brilliant as the virus can stay active for 24 hours.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment