Jeffrey mopped his shining forehead and blotted the top of his head. "You see, Jim, there is one other quality that Prime Ministers need. The killer instinct." He's right. The killer instinct. But do I have it? (Yes Minister Diaries)
Well I got it spectacularly wrong although I did think John Le Fondre would defeat the Vote of No Confidence, but only by a small amount, not by 10 votes.
One of the major factors was surely the agreement whereby Charlie Parker "agreed to step down" - in which the word "resign" was absent from all statements from the Chief Minister and Charlie Parker, as was the word "sacked".
What precisely took place at those discussions before that decision was made, we may never know, but it gave a lie to the notion that "John Le Fondre is a nice person, but as Chief Minister, a bit soft". In this instance, there was clear and strong leadership. He may not act immediately (and sometimes that can be a good thing) but he has shown his mettle in acting decisively when he does act.
He demonstrated, as the extract from Jim Hacker's Diaries show, that he posses that quality which leaders do need - "the killer instinct", the ability to show strength - when needed. It was something which Frank Walker and Ian Gorst obviously had; it was equally obvious it was something Terry Le Sueur lacked, with his dithering approach to leadership (and the Bill Ogley fiasco and attempt to derail any Care Inquiry were prime examples of that). John Le Fondre is now firmly not a feeble Chief Minister.
The other factor in his favour was Kristina Moore's VONC preamble suggested moving the hospital site location back to Gloucester Street. Had she suggested Warwick Farm, that might have been in with a chance, but the potential for her standing as Chief Minister - and putting reset to a decision the States took against Gloucester Street - must surely have lost her votes.
Nevertheless, some of the aspects of leadership which Inna Gardner pointed out had validity, and to take them on board as constructive criticism would be a positive step.
Who will fill the missing Assistant Minister and Ministerial roles? That will be interested, although I'd like to see Kirsten Morel as Assistant Minister for Health with particular oversight on the new hospital project. He voted "contre" against the VONC, and would be a valuable asset to ensure the hospital project was properly structured financially. Given John Le Fondre's initial desire to make a broad base in the government - which I think is one of its strengths - that might be on the cards.
What of Reform? Having burnt their boats, it leaves John Le Fondre in a stronger position, no longer hampered by a coalition agreement, but it leaves them relatively weaker, consigned to asking lots of questions again, and bringing the odd proposition, which - if the Trenton Square renaming fiasco is anything to go by - may well be very odd. The person most damaged may be Sam Mezec but a lot depends on the next election, and if John Le Fondre's popularity within the States is reflected by the general public. If it is not, as a long term strategic move, it may be a good one. But a year and a half is a very long time in politics: it is like Deep Time in Geology.
On the pandemic, while not showing the initial command of the situation like a Gavin St Pier, the Government has improved considerably over the year.
There is still more improvement however. The recent rumour of a lockdown 2 as cases actively seeking healthcare rises is an indication of community spread, needing some kind of remedial actions, and while this is being worked on, some indication of when it might be announced could be helpful. The statistics have also improved, with contacts of active cases shown, and pre-sympomatic cases classified as symptomatic when they occur. The move for Green zones to isolate until after the first test result came, according to the outgoing Medical Officer of Health, at least a week later than it should.
And while we are getting helpful statistics on average time to get results, a missing figure is the rising gap between being told to get a test, and waiting for a slot to get tested, which seems to have increased in some cases I know of to around three to four days. During that time people have to self-isolate, but it means the total period of isolation is also increasing. That delay in getting test slots is not surprising given the rapid rise (probably because of school year groups) of contacts of active cases to be tested, now over 1,200, but we should have it presented in the statistics.
And finally, while Charlie Parker will not get housing qualifications under the terms of his contract, what is the value of the contractual pay-out? In the wake of departures like Bill Ogley, this is surely a question in the public interest.
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