Guesswork

It's always dangerous to speculate on the vote of no confidence in the Chief Minister, but it is worth considering Inna Gardiner's to reduce the new green rules from Monday 12th to Thursday 8th October which was a push back from her "immediate effect". 

This was clearly a case for the government line or against the government line, and I suspect those on this list will support the VONC, and most of those against it will vote against the VONC.

It failed by 26 to 21 but it's worth noting who voted for it.

Deputy Carina Alves For (Pour)
Deputy Louise Doublet For (Pour)
Deputy Inna Gardiner For (Pour)
Deputy Mike Higgins For (Pour)
Connétable Mike Jackson For (Pour)
Deputy Mary Le Hegarat For (Pour)
Connétable John Le Maistre For (Pour)
Connétable Philip Le Sueur For (Pour)
Connétable Sadie Le Sueur-Rennard For (Pour)
Deputy Stephen Luce For (Pour)
Deputy Jeremy Maçon For (Pour)
Senator Sam Mézec For (Pour)
Deputy Kirsten Morel For (Pour)
Deputy Kevin Pamplin For (Pour)
Deputy Jess Perchard For (Pour)
Deputy Trevor Pointon For (Pour)
Deputy Geoffrey Southern For (Pour)
Deputy Montfort Tadier For (Pour)
Senator Tracey Vallois For (Pour)
Deputy Robert Ward For (Pour)
Deputy John Young

Sarah Ferguson and Karen Shenton-Stone were excused / ill.

Compare with Kristina's signatories, and assume the same numbers as above plus the shifting ones below:

Kristina Moore (new)
1. Senator S.W. Pallett (new)
2. Connétable of St. Saviour (there)
3. Connétable of St. Brelade (there)
4. Connétable of St. Mary (new as absent)
5. Deputy L.M.C. Doublet of St. Saviour (there)
6. Deputy S.M. Ahier of St. Helier (new)

That gives a potential shift of 4 votes, making it
26-4= 22
21+4=25

But John Young is voting for John Le Fondre

22+1=23

25-1=24

Update: 10/11/2020

It looks as if Jeremy Macon is voting for JLF

23+1=24

24-1=23

If all States members are present, the VONC will I think fail.

So it could be very close indeed.