It is strange how quickly a week can change things in politics. As Gary Burgess noted, last week's conference had a tone of impending apocalypse. It was like John the Baptist in the Covid wilderness, crying out to the people to repent and change their ways. This week was much more assured. The measures in place will work. The numbers will fall. We are monitoring everything carefully, and see no reason for more extreme measures.
One can't help feeling that the part of the press conference which was the cause of the returning optimism was not so much the strategy but the news that a vaccine will be rolled out - starting next week -to care homes, care home staff, and then to key frontline health workers. That is the game changer.
As far as the strategy goes, it is quite rightly too early to tell whether it is working or not. On that score, the Government were quite right. Numbers will rise, as will hospitalisations, and even deaths, before matters start improving. Any kind of measures to impede the spread of Covid will always have a time lag before they take effect.
But... on the bad side, not enough was given to the stress the testing system has clearly come under, with advice given that you don't need to self-isolate if an indirect contact if not contacted after 48 hours - and why that was originally just 24 hours.
That will almost certainly let some cases slip the net. Tailbacks at the testing centre show that while the processing of results can be automated, the processing of people cannot - and can overwhelm the system. The 48 hours advice is an admission of failure.
And as for schools, the argument only counts figures of cases, not the knock on effect of a case testing positive.
Pupils testing positive means whole year groups going into the track and trace and self-isolation system, and that can mean as many as 150 at a time. The number of November school cases I got from my recent FOI suggests that 4-5 schools - and there have been more secondary schools, can bump up test and trace by at least 500 in one day. Given the large numbers of secondary schools effected, it is easy to see why the system is becoming overwhelmed. It's not the large numbers in schools: it's the consequence of any number having a domino effect on numbers sent home. Primary schools don't have as much classroom changes - so mostly one pupil means a classroom bubble of maybe 30 at most.
The argument that pupils at home will meet up and spread the virus more - which was made with all seriousness as an argument against closing schools - means it will surge after Christmas holidays by their own logic. And for all the "evidence", there were actually no detailed statistics on this: it was pure surmise after school numbers went up after halloween. And yet they also state it may have been adults passing it onto children. So which is it? And where precisely is the track and trace report showing that? We still have no minutes from STAC since September!
And as for schools, the argument only counts figures of cases, not the knock on effect of a case testing positive.
Pupils testing positive means whole year groups going into the track and trace and self-isolation system, and that can mean as many as 150 at a time. The number of November school cases I got from my recent FOI suggests that 4-5 schools - and there have been more secondary schools, can bump up test and trace by at least 500 in one day. Given the large numbers of secondary schools effected, it is easy to see why the system is becoming overwhelmed. It's not the large numbers in schools: it's the consequence of any number having a domino effect on numbers sent home. Primary schools don't have as much classroom changes - so mostly one pupil means a classroom bubble of maybe 30 at most.
The argument that pupils at home will meet up and spread the virus more - which was made with all seriousness as an argument against closing schools - means it will surge after Christmas holidays by their own logic. And for all the "evidence", there were actually no detailed statistics on this: it was pure surmise after school numbers went up after halloween. And yet they also state it may have been adults passing it onto children. So which is it? And where precisely is the track and trace report showing that? We still have no minutes from STAC since September!
And we are also still awaiting guidance or law for Christmas so we can plan what we might do within the safe limits set out!
And finally, we are running a with a hypothesis which may or may not prove accurate. It is based on the current statistics coming through, although a UK infection expert who knows Jersey differs in his opinion of how successful it will be. It is Jersey's equivalent of a Tier system, which obviously would not be workable in a small area. If numbers do not start to drop, or if they surge after Christmas, at some point the hypothesis will have been falsified. It's a grey area as to when any such decision may be taken, and at present we just don't know.
And one postscript: we should really do at least one clap for the contact tracing and testing teams who are working extremely hard and diligently at these difficult times. No one mentions giving thanks for them, but I will! They are polite, professional, and must have a heavy workload, but you don't hear of them complaining or losing their tempers. It is an incredibly difficult job at this time, and they are doing it brilliantly!
And one postscript: we should really do at least one clap for the contact tracing and testing teams who are working extremely hard and diligently at these difficult times. No one mentions giving thanks for them, but I will! They are polite, professional, and must have a heavy workload, but you don't hear of them complaining or losing their tempers. It is an incredibly difficult job at this time, and they are doing it brilliantly!
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