Statistics update: Since Wednesday 4 August, 259 individuals have recovered and 38 new cases have been identified. 24 cases have been identified through seeking healthcare, 8 through inbound travel and 6 through cohort screening. The number of active cases in the Island is 832. 542 cases are symptomatic and 290 cases are asymptomatic.
The 10 days reduction
A lot has been made of the reduction of isolation period for "deemed recovery" of people with Covid no longer showing symptoms, or not showing symptoms at all. It should be noted that the UK did reduce isolation to 10 days right at the start of 2021, as have a lot of other countries. That seems to be in line with medical advice on duration of Covid, which has been refined since 2020 based on studies using a lot more data.
However, it should be noted that the timing of the reduction in Jersey was very beneficial to the Government as it suddenly cut cases massively. Had it been done when we were down to zero cases, it would have had no notable effect, and would pass without comment.
Key Ratio
The other key metric which has remained unchanged is ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic has risen to 30-35% recently which is what we would expect. It dipped for a few weeks to 25%, which is not in line with general statistics, and had that continued, would have suggested asymptomatic cases were not being picked up.
Falling Numbers
1. Summer means more people are outside, so less spread, as we saw last year.
2. The increased number of islanders vaccinated slowing transmission. Vaccinated people still get Covid, but less severely and usually transmit it less as well.
3. Schools stopped for holiday. Numbers of active cases were doubling every week for the last 4 weeks of term. It would be useful to know what will happen when schools return. We are told that plans are in progress. The reduction in vaccination age to include 16 and 17 year olds may have an impact here.
4. A return to mask wearing indoors. There is clear evidence that masks, while not 100% efficient, reduce the transmission. Remember even a 50% effectiveness in prevention will be significant.
5. Changes in key parameters - the 10 day deemed recovered for no symptoms showing after Covid infections, the increased use of lateral flow in work places, and for direct contacts within households. Lateral flow tests are only around 80% reliable, but as with mask wearing, every weapon in the battle against Covid is worth deploying.
6. Changes in behaviours - a significant number of people are more risk averse when it comes to being close to those who are not close friends and family in crowded places.
Modelling
Mathematical modelling on 35 cases a day gives a plateau of 315. What is significant too is that direct contacts has reduced to 2,430. As the number of direct contacts reduces, the chances of catching them early increases, which also drives numbers down.
Long Covid
BBC Radio Four's "More or Less" discussed this. About 2% of the population can be expected to get severe "Long Covid" symptoms persisting for over 4 weeks, of which the main ones are fatigue, breathlessness and "brain fog".
Older people are slightly more susceptible than younger, but vaccination cuts risk by half, which means that older vaccinated people are in fact often less likely to get it than younger unvaccinated people in their 20s.
Even 1% of the Jersey population would be 1,100 cases.
Credit where it is due
The government policy to allow infected people to take 2 hours exercise outside away from anyone else is a welcome change, and a reminder that some people have been incarcerated in tiny flats with no gardens when they have had Covid.
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