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| The 70th Anniversary of Liberation Day Like the first, this took place in the People's Park |
The People’s Park is back in the frame as a possible site for the new hospital, but note the word “possible”. If the site not been reconsidered when other sites that had been considered and discarded under Andrew Green’s oversight, it would seem very strange. It needs to be considered – so that it can be ruled out properly.
Of course it might be still the best choice, but the political dimension needs also to be considered. It would be a brave Minister who tried to push that through, especially as the balance of the States has altered, and the five strong Reform members would almost certainly vote against.
There’s some strange reporting from the JEP. It reports of Jackie Hilton that:
“The former Deputy for St Helier No 3/4 led the Save People’s Park campaign in 2016 when it emerged as the Council of Ministers’ preferred site for the new hospital.”
Really? Wasn’t Christian May, the chairman of Save People's Park? As I recall his 2016 bi-election campaign said: “I am not afraid to stand up to power, as I did by successfully leading the ‘Save People’s Park’ campaign.” Why haven’t they asked him for his opinion? Is it because as a civil servant involved in the Island’s Brexit team, he is essentially muted? It is still no reason to distort history and airbrush his involvement away!
Of course it might be still the best choice, but the political dimension needs also to be considered. It would be a brave Minister who tried to push that through, especially as the balance of the States has altered, and the five strong Reform members would almost certainly vote against.
There’s some strange reporting from the JEP. It reports of Jackie Hilton that:
“The former Deputy for St Helier No 3/4 led the Save People’s Park campaign in 2016 when it emerged as the Council of Ministers’ preferred site for the new hospital.”
Really? Wasn’t Christian May, the chairman of Save People's Park? As I recall his 2016 bi-election campaign said: “I am not afraid to stand up to power, as I did by successfully leading the ‘Save People’s Park’ campaign.” Why haven’t they asked him for his opinion? Is it because as a civil servant involved in the Island’s Brexit team, he is essentially muted? It is still no reason to distort history and airbrush his involvement away!
That's not to take away Deputy Hilton's part, but Christian May was the leading figure, and the JEP just doesn't mention him at all. Elephants can remember, they say, but the JEP cannot.
As in fact may be remembered, after protests and a petition, Senator Green was faced with a proposition from Constable Simon Crowcroft for the States to rule out the People’s Park, upon which he withdrew the People’s Park as a hospital site. In a face saving exercise, he said he was listening to the people, whereas in fact, he was counting votes in the States, and emails telling him of opposition. Rather than face a crushing defeat, he took the Town Park off the table of hospital sites, and caved in – not to public demand – but to the promised voting preferences of his fellow States members against it.
It is interesting that in the last election, only one candidate said they thought the Town Park was a good idea, and that they endorsed it, and would have supported Senator Green in the States. That was Deputy Susie Pinel, and it says a lot that a Deputy from outside St Helier should not be concerned with how the residents of St Helier think of the matter.
Is this Jersey’s equivalent of the West Lothian question? That is whether rural members of the States, who are overrepresented anyway in apportionment, should have the ability to make decisions which affect St Helier, where over a third of the Island lives? It would not be perhaps so pertinent if St Helier was fairly represented in the States.
The JEP makes a lot of its survey of readers, which has picked “the People’s Park” but a careful look at how they gleaned the result shows that it was a typical self-selecting survey. These are invariably biased and do not reflect the true state of affairs.
Rather than letting readers select themselves, even a smaller sample at random of 500 people out and about on the streets of St Helier would provide more information. It would still be deficient – it would not take account of different demographics, and the people who lived and worked outside of St Helier, but it would still be more representative.
Self-selecting samples can look impressive, as they may have larger numbers than a random sample, but it is severely deficient. In most instances, self-selection will lead to biased data, as the respondents who choose to participate will not well represent the entire target population. A key objective of doing surveys is to measure empirical regularities in a population by sampling a much smaller number of entities that represent the whole target population.
I remember when there was a decision to be made on a bridge across to the Waterfront, which would have spanned three lanes of traffic. A phone survey – taking numbers at random – was used. I know because I was one of those polled. Now, of course, when most people have mobiles, and not everyone is listed in a phone book, that would be much harder to do and be representative, but it was not a bad way of randomising the sample.
I rather like the acronym for one self-selecting sample. A self-selected listener opinion poll, also called SLOP, is an unscientific poll that is conducted by broadcast media (television stations and radio stations) to engage their audiences by providing them an opportunity to register their opinion about some topic that the station believes has current news value.
Like the self-selected listener opinion poll, this JEP poll is sloppy too!
As in fact may be remembered, after protests and a petition, Senator Green was faced with a proposition from Constable Simon Crowcroft for the States to rule out the People’s Park, upon which he withdrew the People’s Park as a hospital site. In a face saving exercise, he said he was listening to the people, whereas in fact, he was counting votes in the States, and emails telling him of opposition. Rather than face a crushing defeat, he took the Town Park off the table of hospital sites, and caved in – not to public demand – but to the promised voting preferences of his fellow States members against it.
It is interesting that in the last election, only one candidate said they thought the Town Park was a good idea, and that they endorsed it, and would have supported Senator Green in the States. That was Deputy Susie Pinel, and it says a lot that a Deputy from outside St Helier should not be concerned with how the residents of St Helier think of the matter.
Is this Jersey’s equivalent of the West Lothian question? That is whether rural members of the States, who are overrepresented anyway in apportionment, should have the ability to make decisions which affect St Helier, where over a third of the Island lives? It would not be perhaps so pertinent if St Helier was fairly represented in the States.
The JEP makes a lot of its survey of readers, which has picked “the People’s Park” but a careful look at how they gleaned the result shows that it was a typical self-selecting survey. These are invariably biased and do not reflect the true state of affairs.
Rather than letting readers select themselves, even a smaller sample at random of 500 people out and about on the streets of St Helier would provide more information. It would still be deficient – it would not take account of different demographics, and the people who lived and worked outside of St Helier, but it would still be more representative.
Self-selecting samples can look impressive, as they may have larger numbers than a random sample, but it is severely deficient. In most instances, self-selection will lead to biased data, as the respondents who choose to participate will not well represent the entire target population. A key objective of doing surveys is to measure empirical regularities in a population by sampling a much smaller number of entities that represent the whole target population.
I remember when there was a decision to be made on a bridge across to the Waterfront, which would have spanned three lanes of traffic. A phone survey – taking numbers at random – was used. I know because I was one of those polled. Now, of course, when most people have mobiles, and not everyone is listed in a phone book, that would be much harder to do and be representative, but it was not a bad way of randomising the sample.
I rather like the acronym for one self-selecting sample. A self-selected listener opinion poll, also called SLOP, is an unscientific poll that is conducted by broadcast media (television stations and radio stations) to engage their audiences by providing them an opportunity to register their opinion about some topic that the station believes has current news value.
Like the self-selected listener opinion poll, this JEP poll is sloppy too!
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