A Scientific Approach to Unlocking Jersey

Listened to Press conference, and I happen to agree that the unlocking system, of releasing up just one restriction, waiting for any effect, and then and only then releasing another makes good sense. 

For a scientific experiment to work, when there are a number of initial conditions that can vary, it makes sense to change just one of those at a time, so - in this case - we can determine what can be done safely and what may then cause cases of Covid to rise. 

Of course, as became apparent, there are a number of relaxations of restrictions that have been grouped together - opening retail outlets, opening close contact businesses, and allowing outside group exercise. The order could vary, and as was suggested strongly by the JEP reporter, the economic benefits came before the health benefits.

There are, however, a few potential pitfalls to this way of opening up our society again:

Firstly, it is assumed that each stage is largely independent of the other, so that, for example, if schools opening has had little effect on increasing numbers, it is safe to move to step 2 and open up smaller retail outlets. And then step 3 to close contact business like hairdresser and barber. However, as was made clear, household mixing can cause rapid increases, and where that comes towards the end of the removal of restrictions, it could easily have a knock on effect on others - taking it across schools, for example. Likewise hospitality can cause spread through the already opened up sectors of the economy.

Second, it is assumed that increases or decreases in connection with these steps are relatively gradual, a slowly, slowly approach as the politicians suggested. But sometimes something can change relatively slowly for a while, slow numbers increase, and then rapidly jump higher over a very short time. The mathematics for this is described as a catastrophic surface (part of catastrophe theory, c.f.  Rene Thom), where a small change in one variable can suddenly lead to a rapid change in another.

So there are still a fair few unknowns which may upset the modelling. 

And finally, one of the stupidest remarks that we would never be able to eliminate Covid from within the island entirely. The case of Guernsey, or indeed New Zealand, shows that this is possible, even if it is difficult. We have evidently chosen not to pursue that strategy, but that is a political decision to just suppress Covid and not go the extra mile. Guernsey's initial strategy, looking back, was to suppress it, but when it showed itself to be successful, they decided to eliminate it instead. It's not a question of going in a massively different direction, just going a bit further than suppression. And the strategy is always open to that change, if the opportunity arises. It's simply knowing when to go for it.