This "look ahead", apart from highlighting specific weaknesses in the Safer Travel policy, is mainly focussed on the statistical outcome of Jersey's current strategy.
Currently the total focus is in Jersey is on hospitalisations rather than case numbers. Of course there will be a lag of at least a few days, possibly a week, with these as we know that Covid when caught may be mild for a few days then cause a veritable immune system storm.
On Tuesday December 8th 2020 there were 579 active cases and 25 in hospital so something is working regarding the hospital admissions. Now with similar numbers - although we'll need about a week to be sure - there are only 2 in hospital.
But long covid, not on the roadmap, will become (as it is elsewhere) an increasing issue. Long Covid affects around ten per cent of 18-49 year olds who get Covid-19, increasing to 22 per cent of people over 70. The researchers also found people with asthma were also more likely to develop long Covid. The ONS in the UK is now getting a grip on long covid figures. Jersey has yet to start.
The relaxation of contact tracing rules will accelerate trends already in existence. Only 50% of the total population is vaccinated. Under the old contact tracing, if a playgroup which was closed through contact tracing, and some were, it was because a child had picked up covid (no symptoms) and passed it to parents (most probably in their 20s or early 30s) who showed symptoms and tested positive.
This will almost certainly be the model for schools and playgroups. The older cohort of pupils in schools will be picked up by weekly lateral flow testing, and that will probably soon lead to as many pupils isolating as were off through contact tracing, with the added disadvantage they’ll pass it to their parents and potentially into other schools.
Vaccination will provide a good deal of protection still – if double vaccinated and over 14 days at least. But it is clear that the Delta variant needs both jabs. People in Jersey with a single jab are catching Covid, even if the statistics are not officially released.
It is possible given statements on Safer Travel that Senator Farnham is looking to relax rules on travel for single jabbed individuals which goes in the face of all scientific data on the Delta Variant. Single jabs do not provide enough immunity.
But long covid, not on the roadmap, will become (as it is elsewhere) an increasing issue. Long Covid affects around ten per cent of 18-49 year olds who get Covid-19, increasing to 22 per cent of people over 70. The researchers also found people with asthma were also more likely to develop long Covid. The ONS in the UK is now getting a grip on long covid figures. Jersey has yet to start.
The relaxation of contact tracing rules will accelerate trends already in existence. Only 50% of the total population is vaccinated. Under the old contact tracing, if a playgroup which was closed through contact tracing, and some were, it was because a child had picked up covid (no symptoms) and passed it to parents (most probably in their 20s or early 30s) who showed symptoms and tested positive.
This will almost certainly be the model for schools and playgroups. The older cohort of pupils in schools will be picked up by weekly lateral flow testing, and that will probably soon lead to as many pupils isolating as were off through contact tracing, with the added disadvantage they’ll pass it to their parents and potentially into other schools.
Vaccination will provide a good deal of protection still – if double vaccinated and over 14 days at least. But it is clear that the Delta variant needs both jabs. People in Jersey with a single jab are catching Covid, even if the statistics are not officially released.
It is possible given statements on Safer Travel that Senator Farnham is looking to relax rules on travel for single jabbed individuals which goes in the face of all scientific data on the Delta Variant. Single jabs do not provide enough immunity.
Remember also a double jab needs at least 14 days to work. Here's an example of what can happen:
"Double jabbed & got it after day 10 test, pinged Positive!, plus my work colleague so had to shut our business for 2 weeks!"
Numbers for the unvaccinated will grow with a few “breakthrough” cases of vaccinated individuals (so avoid young people!) until it reaches a plateaux. As no government has let it rip quite like this without some kind of lockdown, I’d estimate with a potential population of say 40,000 (as some people will be double vaccinated before, some have Covid now), that the numbers might go as high as 20,000-30,000 and then they will start to slow and fall - that is mathematically the point of inflection.
"Double jabbed & got it after day 10 test, pinged Positive!, plus my work colleague so had to shut our business for 2 weeks!"
Numbers for the unvaccinated will grow with a few “breakthrough” cases of vaccinated individuals (so avoid young people!) until it reaches a plateaux. As no government has let it rip quite like this without some kind of lockdown, I’d estimate with a potential population of say 40,000 (as some people will be double vaccinated before, some have Covid now), that the numbers might go as high as 20,000-30,000 and then they will start to slow and fall - that is mathematically the point of inflection.
The problem with variants is that you can catch Covid twice, and only vaccination provides solid immunity. So as the Delta may plateau and fall out, other variants or even Alpha may return.
Once numbers reach 10,000, easily by the end of July, I think we can count inward tourism as a market which may fall off the edge, except for UK visitors who after their freedom day, will be in exactly the same position as us. But there will be restricted travel to any other countries at least for the non-vaccinated, and perhaps even for the vaccinated.
Once numbers reach 10,000, easily by the end of July, I think we can count inward tourism as a market which may fall off the edge, except for UK visitors who after their freedom day, will be in exactly the same position as us. But there will be restricted travel to any other countries at least for the non-vaccinated, and perhaps even for the vaccinated.
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