An Act of Desparation: Changes to the Testing Regime

From tomorrow, there will be changes to our testing programme to prioritise symptomatic Islanders who require a test.

 
If you are a direct contact, you will only be required to take one single test as soon as possible after you are identified as a direct contact. You do not need to isolate until you receive a negative result but should remain cautious in the activities you carry out for the following 10 days
if you're a passenger arriving in Jersey and not fully vaccinated you will still be required to test on arrival (day 0) and isolate until you receive a negative test result but will no longer be required to undertake a day 8 test
If you're part of the broadest employment group (Group C) of the Workforce Testing Programme, you will now progress to a weekly Lateral Flow Test (LFT) under the new Community Testing Programme, instead of a PCR test every eight weeks (for more info, visit gov.je/testing)
these changes to testing will apply to anyone awaiting further tests. If this applies to you, you will receive a cancellation notification for existing test bookings that are no longer required.

Chief Minister, Senator John Le Fondré, said: “Our testing strategy has always used a risk-based approach, and our testing programme was designed to contain the spread of the virus, protect our borders and our Island community. As we have now entered a new phase in the vaccination protection, with 83% of first doses delivered to over-18s ahead of schedule, and on our way to delivering 80% of second doses in early August, we are repositioning our testing strategy to ensure our resources are being used to protect Islanders in the best possible way.

Every day there is more spin, and no apology. Instead whatever the new policy rolled out is, it is presented as the most thought out and considered option. It is not. It is an act of desperation, and I'd prefer an honest admission of that in contrast to the endless justifications of Government policy.

A Translation of the Chief Ministers remarks: Our testing system is overwhelmed and in danger of collapse for the second time, so we are going to take the chance that there are not that many people getting through the first PCR test as negative and later getting Covid, and also vain hope that asymptomatic people won't spread the virus nearly as much as symptomatic people.

The science is otherwise with the Delta Variant: Even people with an asymptomatic infection can pass on the virus to others. You can't change the science to suit the political situation, which is what seems to be attempted here.

“It is extraordinarily contagious,” said Dr. William Schaffner, professor of preventive medicine and health policy, Division of Infectious Diseases, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Tennessee. “Given that it is so very contagious, remember, the virus’ only job is to infect someone else so it can keep reproducing. Here in Nashville, essentially 90 percent of people hospitalized today are unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated.”

And Healthline notes that: "What makes the delta and delta plus variants even more concerning, aside from their increased transmission rates, is that they may put patients at risk for developing other long-term health problems, though the data on that is still preliminary."

There is also the lingering question of Long Covid, and we know there are at least 160 islanders suffering from that already, possibly more as the protocols for identification have inly been introduced recently.

“The question is not only is it more contagious, but might it produce more severe diseases? Are you more likely to have a severe infection? The data are less certain, but there are some suggestions that that is the case,” said Schaffner.

Existing studies have shown children are less likely to get infected and develop severe illness from COVID-19, but these studies were conducted during mask and social distancing mandates, and while the country had robust testing. 

We know from looking at schools with the breaks off in Jersey that the infection has been sweeping through the classrooms like a hot knife through butter. Anecdotal evidence I am receiving also suggests that there are some severe and persistent side-effects, even with under 18s. These are the children who will pay the price for Government strategy: they are the collateral damage from the impetus to throw open the economy.

And 40% of young adults aged 18 to 29 have not yet booked their first jab, and yet these are the ones most likely to mix and cause additional spread.

What can be done to stem the flow?

With such a gentle break, we are still heading down a steep hill for a car crash: that car crash is herd immunity for the unvaccinated - despite the official denials, it is effectively that policy - and more cases of long Covid, more hospitalisations from breakthrough cases, some deaths, and in a worse case scenario - a Jersey variant which would really put Jersey on the map. (We know that variants are linked to active case numbers rapidly spreading).

Asymptomatic cases are quite often - as an FOI showed from the first lockdown - actually pre-symptomatic - so carriers can be spreading Covid before they start to feel the need to get a check.

The meanest intelligence would realise that if you get a fever and cough, you isolate and get a test booked, whereas if you don’t you cheerfully go on out and about spreading it, even if less transmission, you have far more opportunities to do so. Not picking up on the third of cases which are asymptomatic will accelerate, not decelerate, the amount of Covid in the community, even if some is invisible, or is actually presymptomatic and only becomes symptomatic much later, well after any test should have been done. Lateral flow tests for direct contacts become an easier way of getting round the log-jam and making society safer.

It is also delaying the vaccination programme. Those with Covid symptoms need to wait for 4 weeks after their positive test to have a vaccination - that's current policy - and as more catch it, that's more delays. That's something not made public in speeches!

Simple Steps

• Mask wearing should be compulsory indoors in shops etc as before. A simple survey of supermarkets will show - as if we didn't know from last November - that "strongly urge" is not enough. It needs legal backing.
• Shops should be asked to look at limiting number of people coming in, and putting back where possible a one way flow around the shop.
• Lateral flow tests should be used at Fort Regent. With the removal of potential (at least 1/3) of asymptomatic cases from testing and the increasing case numbers, sooner or later there will an outbreak at the vaccination centre. It is not "if" but "when".

Freedom Day and Vaccination Status Events?

If night clubs and events do go ahead later in the year, make it a legal requirement - as Israel has done - that you have to be double vaccinated plus 14 days to get in. This would provide - as it did in Israel - a great impetus for the 50% of young adults 18-29 who have not even booked for a first jab.

Feedback

Below is some of the feedback from a concerned and angry public. Whenever matters like this is raised, especially by other politicians, the Chief Minister has a standard response: they are only trying to "politicise" the situation.

Well, perhaps the time has come to politicise the situation, in terms of holding politicians to account for the damage they are causing, the abject failure of their strategy, and above all their total inability to admit they might be wrong.

Over 10,000 Direct Contacts: A Collapsing System

These comments illustrate the frustration with delays as numbers of active direct contacts exceeds 10,000.

Hi if u have a positive in the house and we r getting tested tomorrow do we have to wait for results before we can go out ?

You won't get tested tomorrow , there is a 6 (six) day wait for a PCR Test. Freinds of mine phoned the helpline this afternoon and told the next available test is Wednesday 21st

I was tested positive on Tuesday, I have yet to be called to give my direct contacts. I have called the helpline three times (they have always been very helpful and flagged my case) but still have not been called. My housemate is unable to go back to work before receiving test+result and so we are just in a waiting game. He has called to try and book a PCR but they have said that he needs to wait to be contact traced… how long is too long?

Wife on hold for 1 and half hours yesterday.. ive been waiting a week now for someone to contact me for a test as our 6 year old tested positive last Thursday..

I received an exposure alert on Saturday and i’m still waiting for the call to book a test. Like you say, how long do you wait? I also can’t go back to work without a negative.

They can’t cope with all the testing due to the massive rise in positive cases so are changing their own rules to suit. Good luck everyone!

I was texted on Saturday night following an exposure alert saying to wait for a callback to arrange a test. I’m still waiting for the call. I’ve missed almost the whole week from work now. Am I to still wait or does this mean that the test which has still not been booked will now never happen? This weekend will mark 2 weeks since exposure. Will somebody please get back to me and let me know what the plan is because I’d rather like to get on with life.

Exiting Covid Positive: Are we getting real statistics or deemed recoveries?

The absence of  a final test, and often now even a final phone call, mean that those deemed "recovered" may in fact not all be recovered.

So what do you do if you’re a direct contact but you don’t get a call back for a test by 14 days past exposure? Still need to wait for the call and get tested or just carry on?

I was a direct contact 17 days ago, I never got any email or text about the 3 tests I was meant to get! I have been doing lateral flow tests everyday at work, not really a lot else I could do if there's no record of me in their system!

How do they know when someone has recovered. Do they take the 14 day period from positive test as a recovery date. Anyone know?

When someone who has tested positive they have to be symptom free after 14 days of isolation and then they are deemed recovered. They are not tested again because they would still show as positive as the virus. I think remains in ones system, but is not being shed as live virus. Therefore in 14 days time the figures will reduce by today’s positives (give or take a few)

I understand that, the query I have is when do they quantify someone has recovered? They do not test the individual to check if they have recovered so do they assume after 14 days from the positive result that the individual has recovered, for statistical reasons.

Lateral Flow Tests for Every Direct Contact?

Lateral flow tests are provided for businesses that sign up. For those whose businesses do not sign up, there is no alternative, unlike the UK, where lateral flow tests can be taken up by individuals.

Why are you not allowing Lateral Flow tests to be available to everyone like the NHS have done? The wait for individuals who have tested positive to be contacted to find out who their direct contacts are is up to 72 hours at the moment. Then from then on we have been told it may take 72 hours for the direct contacts to be notified. During that time direct contacts can go about their normal life and spread it to god knows how many people. Appreciate the changes you are trying to implement to lessen amount of testing after first test result and it’s very busy time but surely there has to be a way to make testing directs quicker than what it is currently?

Whilst direct contacts continue to possibly (if also infected) infect others whilst awaiting a test why won’t the government consider providing them with lateral flow tests direct contacts can conduct at home if themselves?

Why can't lateral flow tests which take just 15 minutes be used to allow visitors to more safely visit care homes?

Stories of Sickness

Again, the issue of "deemed recovery " is leading to a false sense of security with the official numbers. 

Not fully vaccinated people on arrival don’t get tested after day 0?? The incubation period is up to 14 days…what a mess! I’m still suffering and struggling with my breathing after 15 days of testing positive because you decided to relax everything before everyone got a chance to get their 2nd vaccine! Your incompetence and irresponsibility will not be forgotten rest assured.

Also not following up with direct contacts and ticking people off as “recovered” whilst they’re still ill, like myself (no contact from anyone to see if my symptoms were gone although I was told I’d get a phone call) so that you can keep the numbers down. Call yourselves a government? You are messing with people’s health whilst using the excuses of “balance” and “mental health”. Shameful! Get these greedy, clueless people out of power NOW

Face masks - Strongly Recommend

Last October and November should have taught a lesson that unless legally mandated, a lot of people will just be deaf to pleas from the government.

Please legally mandate this urgently! We have very little in our armour now to fight back at this out of control spread, so we have to use everything possible whether it is a popular move or not! I was in a well known supermarket this morning and no one was wearing masks, not the staff or the customers.

They haven't learnt from Autumn. "Strongly recommend" = "Just ignore" for a lot of people!

Please just put this back in law. As humans we are generally like herding kittens-we need rules…..and even then some don’t get it. Please just make it mandatory

Breaking The Vaccination Barrier

The more cases there are, the more vaccine breakthough transmission. A room of 100% vaccinated people would have a high herd immunity from contagion from one individual. A room of 50% vaccinated people would have lots of vaccine breakthroughs if 50% were unvaccinated and carriers.

With the infection rate so incredibly high it is breaking through the vaccination barrier. The likelihood of a double vaccinated person getting infected and very ill is incredibly low when infection rates are low, this is what we’ve been told and is absolutely true. However when the infection rate is this high the likelihood of vaccinated people getting ill is higher. 

This is what they are saying about it breaking the vaccination barrier, and it’s not a good place to be in at all when our vulnerable are now at higher risk. I know of double vaccinated people very ill with it, and sadly I think it’s only a matter of time before there are some more deaths. 

Not on the scale of December, but again deaths that could and should have been avoided. The vaccine is a success and we can live with Covid, but not with this level and rate of infection, it’s simply too high for the vaccine to stand it’s ground.

We need to think about the vulnerable the ones that cant be vaccinated and older people that have it's looking likely alot will be staying in again not trusting how this government are letting the virus run through the community with such high ridiculous number of cases

The Selfish Point of View vs The Compassionate Society

Two sides of the argument demonstrate how divided our society has become. Both here and online are a certain amount of "straw dog" arguments from those wanting greater freedom, painting the precautionary measurers advocates in an extreme position which they do not hold. Those advocating greater freedoms also tend to downplay the severity of the disease, often likening it to influenza, despite there being significant differences.

I don't mean to be hard but the vulnerable now need to take responsibility for themselves. The rest of us have lives to live. This is ridiculous now, we'll never move forward.

Being vulnerable isn’t really about taking responsibility for yourself. The clue is in the word “vulnerable”
Meaning:
-unable to take care of themselves.
-unable to protect themselves from significant harm.
I would rather live in a society where we look after our vulnerable, otherwise what does that say about us as human beings?

I agree, in the nicest sense the vulnerable cannot hold the rest of us to ransom, its survival of the fittest as we have done the best we can to protect them.

I hope we never stop caring about the vulnerable people in society. That’s the problem with the world today, ‘I’m alright Jack’

No one is asking for the world to shut down! That’s always the extreme answer. A few mitigating rules would help everyone to live their lives, like wearing a mask, social distancing, regular testing and showing consideration to others. It’s not hard, we all want to be back to normal but not at the expense of other peoples health. The current ways are not working as so many are off ill with the virus or isolating because of it. Businesses are really suffering, it’s just not working.

Masks do nothing, testing does nothing and it would be nice to see some consideration from selfish people like you. Now that people are vaccinated and deaths and serious illness are being minimised, there is absolutely no reason why life cannot return to normal so that businesses no longer have to suffer on your behalf…

You are missing my point! Businesses are suffering because Covid has been allowed to spread throughout the community. There are two issues here, protecting vulnerable people without having too much impact on business and other people and then protecting businesses from having too many people off sick. At the moment because so many people have covid it’s affecting business. It’s not selfish to want people not to be ill and the economy to be successful. And masks do work if used correctly.

It seems your good attitude of self I'm all right jack the reason why the cases are so high now even though testing was in place the opened up the travel too quickly when their was a danger to variants with the amount of planes coming in and easing the restrictions then getting rid of masks and not introducing them . Isolation gone track and trace collapsed we in really good hands with this government of keeping us safe. Vaccination should have happened first where nearly everyone was done and protected before bringing in so many tourists government look at being one step ahead in tourism they have failed.

I think everyone wants the same end results, but not everyone agrees on the way to get there. The virus has really shown us that as a community many don’t care about others. I really don’t understand why if anyone is showing Covid symptoms or knows they are potentially carrying a nasty disease, why they wouldn’t show consideration to others? It’s a shame rules had to be put in place as it’s pretty much common sense really. Prior to Covid if I had a bug, I would tell people I had one and avoid others as much as possible. Why would I be selfish and carelessly pass a bug on to someone else? They could get really ill and maybe not be able to work so I would be affecting their livelihood too. Are you suggesting that we expose everyone to a nasty virus whether they want it or not, potentially making hundreds very ill? Are you saying the WHO are incorrect with all their expert advice which comes from the best specialists in the world? Are you saying you know better than them? Just because you are bored and have had enough of Covid doesn’t mean it’s over. Those that want precautions in place are not the enemy, we are looking out for others including their businesses and livelihoods. Restrictions are there to protect businesses and health.

Addendum: Influenza and Covid: A False Comparison

Falsely equating the flu and Covid has been a real and harmful trope of misinformation during the pandemic.

Compared to flu, COVID-19 can cause more serious illnesses in some people. COVID-19 can also take longer before people show symptoms and people can be contagious for longer.

Flu: Typically, a person experiences symptoms anywhere from 1 to 4 days after infection.

COVID-19: Typically, a person experiences symptoms about 5 days after being infected, but symptoms can appear 2 to 14 days after infection.

Flu: Oral antiviral medications can address symptoms and sometimes shorten the duration of the illness. Because they are given by mouth, these antiviral therapies can be prescribed for patients who are not hospitalized as well as for those in the hospital.

COVID-19: Antiviral medications and other therapies are being tested to see if they can effectively address symptoms and shorten the duration of the illness. Currently, effective treatments are only available in an intravenous form, so they are not prescribed to patients outside of a hospital setting.
The bottom line:

The bottom line: While the virus that causes COVID-19 and flu viruses are thought to spread in similar ways, the virus that causes COVID-19 is generally more contagious than flu viruses. Also, COVID-19 has been observed to have more superspreading events than flu. This means the virus that causes COVID-19 can quickly and easily spread to a lot of people and result in continual spreading among people as time progresses.

References
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
https://fullfact.org/health/covid-flu-2021/