The Missing Number

Mind the Gap

Apparently the forthcoming hospital Covid facility (ITV news report) will be able to analyse up to 2,000 swabs a day with results back within around 12 hours. What this doesn't do is look at the time for the contact tracing team to get in touch.

Government procedures state: "If you are a direct contact of someone positive with COVID-19 you will be notified by the Government of Jersey's COVID Safe team by text message or email. You will be provided a date and time for a PCR test."

There are currently 4,545 direct contacts of active cases. At 2,000 swabs a day, this means over 2 days to process and get results back on that.

Once swabbed, the results probably will be back within around 12 hours. But how long will it take for the contact tracing team to contact them, and book them in. Even if they could book in 2,000 for one day, that still means a gap of a day... with more contacts coming in as well in increasing numbers while those get tested.

The Missing Number

It's a bit like those hospital waiting lists. The time on hospital waiting lists only begins when they put you on the list, and that can itself take time. In the case of the test system, the results come back within around 12 hours - after you have had the PCR test, and the time waiting for one is not factored into these figures. That's the missing number.

Now some of those direct contacts may be waiting for results, but as numbers increase the delay between being identified as a direct contact, and getting a PCR test booked in - with the airport testing site closed and just the harbour one open - means that gap is going to grow significantly high.

Thinking Carefully!!!

The procedure for a direct contact before the PCR test is, if symptomatic, to self-isolate until the test and then the result of the test. If no symptoms:

If you are notified that you are a direct contact of a positive case, you are not required to isolate unless you have symptoms, but you must think very carefully about the activities you undertake and the places you visit for the next 10 days, even if you receive a negative test result.

You should:
-arrange to work from home where possible
-not attend work until you receive a negative result
-limit social contact and do not see multiple circles of friends or family
-avoid spending time in crowded or busy places
-wear a mask in indoor areas, regularly wash your hands and maintain physical distancing where possible

Note that these are recommendations, and given the number of people who follow the recommendations to wear masks in indoor places now - or rather the number who don't - numbers will continue rising.

Why mask wearing needs to be mandatory

The game changer is mask wearing. When made mandatory back in July, the numbers took a downward turn almost at once. Winter months will probably mean less effect, but some effect is almost certain. 

"Strongly advise" can be translated into two words - "mostly ignore". 

If the last three waves have shown us anything it is the truth of that. "Hindsight is a wonderful thing" is often bandied by those who are in charge when criticised, but a better aphorism is that used by Churchill: "“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”" 

The evidence is there. All the goverment has to do is see it, and act responsibly.