Proofs and Refutations in Historical Jesus Research – Part 4
When we map Imre Lakatos’s four strategies onto the high-stakes battlefield of Gospel scholarship, we can see exactly why NT scholars and historical-Jesus researchers rarely change their minds.
Because the text of the Gospels is ancient, complex, and open to interpretation, it provides the perfect raw material for academics to build a "Protective Belt" around their core theories.
In these posts, I will illustrate how historians deploy the four basic Lakatosian strategies to defend their views against troublesome textual data:
James DG Dunn
If N.T. Wright’s program is a hyper-insulated fortress and the ultra-literary camp (Walsh, Mills) is a rigid, degenerating program, James D.G. Dunn’s research program in “Jesus Remembered” is a textbook example of a highly progressive, methodologically honest Lakatosian model.
Dunn does things better because he didn’t just build a "protective belt" to defend against anomalies after the fact; instead, he designed his "Hard Core" from the very beginning to naturally expect and absorb messy data.
Here is how a Lakatosian critic would evaluate why Dunn’s approach works so beautifully:
The Genius of a "Flexible Hard Core"
Most historical-Jesus scholars choose a rigid, black-and-white "Hard Core" thesis:
• The Literalists/Conservatives: The Gospels are 100% historically exact video-recordings.
• The Radical Literary Critics: The Gospels are 100% elite, fictional desk-editor fabrications.
If your Hard Core is that absolute, any slight variation in the text becomes a lethal threat, forcing you into desperate special pleading.
Dunn broke this cycle by choosing a fluid, scientifically grounded Hard Core: The Gospels are the oral memory of the impact Jesus made on his disciples
By grounding his theory in how oral tradition actually works (rather than how modern books work), Dunn built a model where variation is not an anomaly but is a feature. He based this on current research into oral memory.
Because the text of the Gospels is ancient, complex, and open to interpretation, it provides the perfect raw material for academics to build a "Protective Belt" around their core theories.
In these posts, I will illustrate how historians deploy the four basic Lakatosian strategies to defend their views against troublesome textual data:
James DG Dunn
If N.T. Wright’s program is a hyper-insulated fortress and the ultra-literary camp (Walsh, Mills) is a rigid, degenerating program, James D.G. Dunn’s research program in “Jesus Remembered” is a textbook example of a highly progressive, methodologically honest Lakatosian model.
Dunn does things better because he didn’t just build a "protective belt" to defend against anomalies after the fact; instead, he designed his "Hard Core" from the very beginning to naturally expect and absorb messy data.
Here is how a Lakatosian critic would evaluate why Dunn’s approach works so beautifully:
The Genius of a "Flexible Hard Core"
Most historical-Jesus scholars choose a rigid, black-and-white "Hard Core" thesis:
• The Literalists/Conservatives: The Gospels are 100% historically exact video-recordings.
• The Radical Literary Critics: The Gospels are 100% elite, fictional desk-editor fabrications.
If your Hard Core is that absolute, any slight variation in the text becomes a lethal threat, forcing you into desperate special pleading.
Dunn broke this cycle by choosing a fluid, scientifically grounded Hard Core: The Gospels are the oral memory of the impact Jesus made on his disciples
By grounding his theory in how oral tradition actually works (rather than how modern books work), Dunn built a model where variation is not an anomaly but is a feature. He based this on current research into oral memory.
When Matthew and Luke alter Mark's wording, or when the resurrection accounts don't perfectly align, a literalist has to sweat to harmonize it. But Dunn’s model naturally predicts this: in an oral culture, performers constantly adapt the details of a story to fit their audience while fiercely preserving the "gist" or the core truth. Dunn doesn't have to defend against textual messiness because his theory beautifully explains it.
A Truly "Progressive" Research Program
Lakatos argued that a research program is progressive if it has high "heuristic power"—meaning it elegantly explains a massive amount of diverse data without needing clumsy, ad-hoc adjustments.
Dunn’s model is hyper-progressive because it seamlessly solves puzzles that crush other scholars:
• The Aramaic Gems: Why does the Greek text randomly drop into Aramaic (Abba, Talitha koum)? The literary camp has to claim elite authors were "simulating robots." Dunn’s model elegantly notes that these are the literal, indelible linguistic footprints of the original oral impact left in the disciples' minds.
• The Continuity Puzzle: How did a simple Galilean preacher suddenly become the divine Lord of the early church? As we saw earlier, Dunn’s model shows that the "seed" was already there in the oral memory of Jesus's implicit authority. The shift was organic, not a fictional hijack.
What a Lakatosian Critic Would Challenge in Dunn
Even though Dunn does things vastly better, an honest Lakatosian critic would still point out where his "Protective Belt" has to do some heavy lifting. No scholar is totally immune to the mirror problem.
The critic would point to Dunn’s treatment of the "Q Source" (the identical, word-for-word Greek text shared by Matthew and Luke). As we noted earlier, oral memory can explain similar stories, but it cannot explain long strings of identical Greek vocabulary copied across scrolls.
When confronted with this, Dunn deployed exception-barring. He essentially said: "Yes, we must admit that written notebooks or a Greek document existed for these specific, lengthy blocks of text (like the Sermon on the Mount). But those are the exceptions. The vast, overwhelming matrix of the Gospel tradition remains purely oral."
A Lakatosian critic would warn Dunn: "Dr. Dunn, by cordoning off the written evidence as a 'special exception,' you are protecting your oral-impact thesis from being forced to admit that the Gospel writers were much more like literate desk editors than your folk-memory model comfortably allows."
Ultimately, Dunn’s research program is the most compelling because it requires the least amount of special pleading.
While Walsh and Mills have to treat the text like a hyper-intellectualized riddle from a university lounge, and Wright has to construct massive theological-metaphorical frameworks to protect his orthodox dogmas, Dunn simply lets the text be what it looks like: a vibrant, messy, living, oral portrait of a historical figure who made a monumental, shattering impact on the people who knew him. He didn't break the mirror completely, but he constructed one of the most honest lenses to look through.
A Truly "Progressive" Research Program
Lakatos argued that a research program is progressive if it has high "heuristic power"—meaning it elegantly explains a massive amount of diverse data without needing clumsy, ad-hoc adjustments.
Dunn’s model is hyper-progressive because it seamlessly solves puzzles that crush other scholars:
• The Aramaic Gems: Why does the Greek text randomly drop into Aramaic (Abba, Talitha koum)? The literary camp has to claim elite authors were "simulating robots." Dunn’s model elegantly notes that these are the literal, indelible linguistic footprints of the original oral impact left in the disciples' minds.
• The Continuity Puzzle: How did a simple Galilean preacher suddenly become the divine Lord of the early church? As we saw earlier, Dunn’s model shows that the "seed" was already there in the oral memory of Jesus's implicit authority. The shift was organic, not a fictional hijack.
What a Lakatosian Critic Would Challenge in Dunn
Even though Dunn does things vastly better, an honest Lakatosian critic would still point out where his "Protective Belt" has to do some heavy lifting. No scholar is totally immune to the mirror problem.
The critic would point to Dunn’s treatment of the "Q Source" (the identical, word-for-word Greek text shared by Matthew and Luke). As we noted earlier, oral memory can explain similar stories, but it cannot explain long strings of identical Greek vocabulary copied across scrolls.
When confronted with this, Dunn deployed exception-barring. He essentially said: "Yes, we must admit that written notebooks or a Greek document existed for these specific, lengthy blocks of text (like the Sermon on the Mount). But those are the exceptions. The vast, overwhelming matrix of the Gospel tradition remains purely oral."
A Lakatosian critic would warn Dunn: "Dr. Dunn, by cordoning off the written evidence as a 'special exception,' you are protecting your oral-impact thesis from being forced to admit that the Gospel writers were much more like literate desk editors than your folk-memory model comfortably allows."
Ultimately, Dunn’s research program is the most compelling because it requires the least amount of special pleading.
While Walsh and Mills have to treat the text like a hyper-intellectualized riddle from a university lounge, and Wright has to construct massive theological-metaphorical frameworks to protect his orthodox dogmas, Dunn simply lets the text be what it looks like: a vibrant, messy, living, oral portrait of a historical figure who made a monumental, shattering impact on the people who knew him. He didn't break the mirror completely, but he constructed one of the most honest lenses to look through.
Next Monday: Dale Allison Jr.
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