Introduction
The transition to electric mobility is a pivotal element in Jersey’s ambitious plans to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with crucial interim targets set for 2030. Central to this trajectory is the government’s commitment to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030, mirroring or even exceeding measures taken in the UK and EU. This policy direction, however, is not without significant challenges, the most critical of which is the adequacy of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure to support mass adoption-especially among those who rely on on-street parking, lower-income families, and residents in rental accommodation.
This research report offers a comprehensive and nuanced assessment of Jersey’s EV transition prospects through 2030 under the scenario of a petrol car sale ban and a significant shortfall in charging infrastructure. The analysis integrates official statistics, policy reviews, forecasts, stakeholder perspectives, and international benchmarks to elucidate projected impacts, on-street parking realities, socioeconomic dimensions, and the scale of infrastructure investments needed. Along the way, it highlights policy dilemmas, environmental implications, and the particular hurdles faced by Jersey's most vulnerable road users.
Policy Overview: Jersey's 2030 Petrol Car Sale Ban and Decarbonisation Targets
Jersey’s Carbon Neutral Roadmap sets out an unequivocal ambition: by 2030, no new petrol or diesel cars will be registered on the island, and the aim is for 67% of all vehicles on the road to be decarbonised-substantially above what mainstream forecasts consider feasible without continued incentives and extensive supportive policies1. The ban follows similar moves across Europe and the UK, although policy stability has varied elsewhere; Jersey has notably maintained its “immovable” deadline even as the UK briefly vacillated before reaffirming its own 2030 target for new petrol and diesel vehicle sales2.
Transport accounts for approximately 45% of Jersey’s on-island greenhouse gas emissions, underscoring the sector’s centrality in decarbonisation strategies3. Success relies on rapid EV uptake, coordinated public policy efforts, and accelerated expansion of both slow and fast charging infrastructure45.
Notably, earlier governmental support for EV purchases (such as the subsidy capped at £3,500) had limited reach and was discontinued by late 2024. The lack of ongoing incentives and the rising incidence of "policy fatigue" around fuel duties complicate Jersey’s readiness to deliver on its 2030 goals3. The current focus is shifting towards the infrastructure and regulatory frameworks that will determine the lived experience of EV transition for all Jersey residents.
Jersey's Current EV Landscape: Charging Infrastructure, Fleet Mix, and Uptake Trends
EV Numbers and Fleet Penetration
Recent statistics indicate that as of the end of 2024, just 2% of Jersey’s vehicle fleet was fully electric, with 22% of new vehicle registrations during the year going to EVs6. The latest open datasets from Jersey's Government corroborate this figure, showing a modest but rapidly rising rate of new EV adoption amidst a total vehicle fleet exceeding 68,000 cars and vans.
Projections compiled for both government and independent sector reports highlight a significant shortfall between the aspirational 67% EV fleet target and plausible adoption scenarios by 2030. Modelling by PwC, for instance, estimates that with no new incentives, EVs are likely to account for only 13% of the fleet by 2030, and just 23% with renewed financial support6. Achieving more would require many households to bring forward purchases, scrapping internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles well before the end of their useful lives, and overcoming entrenched economic barriers.
Charging Infrastructure: Stock and Distribution
The public EV charging network in Jersey, dominated by the Evolve system operated by Jersey Electricity, consists of over 100 charging points as of mid-2025, distributed across key towns, villages, and main carparks7. These public chargers are a mix of fast (7-22kW), rapid (50kW), and ultra-rapid (150kW) units, with new ultra-rapid points recently rolled out at The Powerhouse, capable of charging most modern EVs to 100 miles of range in about ten minutes3.
For the home user, installation of a dedicated 7.4kW charger is possible (subject to property type and grid capacity), and the Government operates an Electric Vehicle Charger Incentive (EVCI), offering £700 towards installation for eligible applicants83. However, this scheme is limited: it is available only to those who own their property, and most landlords are not yet incentivised or required to install chargers for tenants.
Despite growth, several challenges remain:
· Coverage gaps persist, especially outside central St Helier and more affluent parishes.
· The density of chargers per vehicle remains low relative to best-practice benchmarks, and access for renters and those relying on kerbside/on-street parking is notably poor.
· Charging point reliability and user experience are variable, with the majority located in car parks rather than directly on residential streets7.
EV Running and Maintenance Experience
A 2024 survey of local EV owners indicates high satisfaction with the experience of using and owning an EV in Jersey-92% give a rating of 8/10 or higher-citing lower running costs, convenience of home charging (when available), and overall ease of motoring3. For those without home charging, however, enthusiasm is more muted, and public charger reliability, access, and cost are significant pain points.
On-Street Parking Usage and Home Charging Barriers
Size of the On-Street Parking Dependent Population
Jersey’s housing and transport patterns provide unique hurdles for mass EV adoption:
· Owner-occupiers with off-street parking (a garage or driveway) have straightforward access to home charging and are overrepresented among early adopters.
· Renters and lower-income households, especially in urban areas like St Helier, are much more likely to rely on on-street or communal parking and lack any straightforward option to install a private charger.
Data show that in 2021, about 30% of households in St Helier did not own a car or van, but among those that do, the majority depend entirely on on-street parking or shared lots for vehicle storage6. Direct statistics for reliance on on-street parking are scarce, but estimates can be built from census data and social housing reports.
Estimating the Numbers:
· Population (2023): 103,650
· Total households: approx. 44,000
· Households in rental tenure: ~50% island-wide, higher in St Helier9
· Households without off-street parking: Well over 30% in the urban core (St Helier), rates declining in outlying parishes, but no lower than 10-15% even in rural areas.
· Estimated individuals reliant on on-street/public parking: At least 20,000-25,000 people across the island, higher when including all family members in affected households.
A review of parking provision in central St Helier underscores the scale of constraint. Multi-storey and surface car parks manage several thousand parking spaces, but they are not exclusively reserved for residents: significant numbers are transient (for work/shopping), and on-street spaces are under constant demand pressure1011.
Home EV Charging Barriers
The main home charging barrier is the lack of physical infrastructure: flats and terraces with no dedicated parking cannot install chargers without costly communal retrofits, negotiation of rights-of-way, or substantial upgrades to grid connections12.
While some international cities (e.g., London, Amsterdam, Berlin) have begun retrofitting curbside charging and pole-mounted charge points to serve dense residential populations, Jersey remains in the early stages of such innovations. Regulatory and planning frameworks have not yet compelled or incentivised roll-out at sufficient scale, and local authorities face well-documented budget and land-use pressures1314.
Socioeconomic Overlap
Households relying on on-street parking are disproportionately:
· Lower-income, often in the bottom two income quintiles.
· Renters, including both private and social tenants.
· Less likely to have access to discretionary funds for vehicle upgrades, charger installation, or higher-cost, time-flexible charging tariffs.
This is a critical equity issue: the inability to home-charge raises both the total cost of EV ownership and the inconvenience of use-tenants and the less affluent pay more and experience greater daily hassle, compared to homeowners who are often more affluent and able to benefit from off-peak home charging rates156.
Projected Impact: 2030 Ban Under Infrastructure Constraints
EV Uptake Projections and Fleet Transformation Scenarios
Given a 2030 ban on new petrol cars and significant charging infrastructure constraints, the pace and distribution of EV adoption in Jersey are likely to deviate substantially from the government's most optimistic decarbonisation scenarios.
The likely outcomes:
· Total EV fleet share by 2030: Modelling suggests 13-23% of registered cars will be EVs by the end of the decade, against the official target of 67%6.
· EV adoption will be highly unequal, concentrated among wealthier, older homeowners and business/municipal fleets, with the lowest take-up among renters and those lacking convenient parking.
· Petrol and diesel vehicles will persist in older and lower-income segments, with owners of older ICE vehicles facing a shrinking second-hand market, higher running and taxation costs, and increasing practical/psychological barriers to EV transition.
On-Street Parking Groups: Exposure to Transition Risks
Households and individuals without off-street parking will face the highest risk of exclusion from the EV transition by 2030, for three core reasons:
1. Lack of Home Charging: These users will be reliant on a still-underdeveloped and potentially overstretched public charging network, subject to queueing, higher tariffs, and location inconvenience.
2. Greater Cost Burden: Published evidence from UK and European experiences indicates that those reliant on “public” chargers pay as much as two or three times more per kWh than those able to charge off-peak at home, due in part to VAT differences, pricing models, and network costs14.
3. Charging ‘Anxiety’-Not Just Range: Difficulty in securing reliable charge (especially in winter or for shift workers) risks imposing significant “charging anxiety,” disproportionately affecting workers on variable schedules, gig economy drivers, and families with inflexible timetables.
For poorer families and renters, the policy risks are profound:
· Structural exclusion: Lack of access to affordable charging may reduce mobility, job access, or even precipitate forced ‘exit’ from car ownership.
· Lock-in to fossil fuels: Absence of affordable or practical alternatives could see lower-income Jersey residents stranded in an increasingly unaffordable, ageing ICE vehicle stock, facing higher running costs and the threat of eventual regulatory or fiscal penalties (e.g., vehicle emissions duty escalators).
Secondary Impacts
· Upward pressure on public parking demand as displaced ICE vehicles compete with newer EVs for limited daytime and overnight parking (and therefore charging) slots10.
· Environmental gains will be concentrated among wealthier, car-owning suburbanites, with less air quality improvement in higher-density, lower-income neighborhoods unless policy and infrastructure priorities are realigned.
· Political risk: Visible inequities and widespread inconvenience could undermine support for the transition and provoke political backlash, especially if rural/urban or homeowner/renter divides are exacerbated.
Socioeconomic Effects: Income, Poverty, and Rental Tenure
Jersey’s Socioeconomic Profile
Drawing from the latest income and rental data:
· The median equivalised household income for renters is significantly lower than for owner-occupiers, with the poverty rate (relative low income) largest among social tenants and younger households9.
· Rental tenure accounts for about half of all households (including private and social renting), with a higher concentration in St Helier and urban parishes9.
· Cost-of-living pressure is acute, with high housing costs, and Jersey’s compact rental and housing market leaves little scope for adaptation-few renters have any control over access to private parking or charging infrastructure.
Distributional Impacts of EV Policy
Analysis of the adjusted cost-of-ownership figures for EVs vs. ICE vehicles under Jersey’s current infrastructure shows:
· For a homeowner with off-street parking, the total cost of EV ownership typically becomes cheaper than a comparable ICE vehicle within 5 years, due to low running costs, maintenance savings, and preferential charging tariffs3.
· For a renter reliant on public charging, the payback period lengthens considerably, and may never materialise, especially for those unable to charge at work, or constrained by working hours.
· Upfront cost remains the principal barrier (cited by 69% of respondents), but lack of accessible charging is cited by half of all households surveyed as a reason for not going electric6.
Attitudes and Stated Intentions
· Just 20% of those with household incomes below £20,000 say they are likely to switch to a full EV by 2030, compared to 52% among those earning over £80,000.
· 84% of those who found it "very difficult to cope" financially cited upfront EV costs as the overriding obstacle6.
Targeted policy interventions (such as enhanced purchase grants, subsidised on-street charging, and mandated “EV ready” rental properties) are needed to address these disparities, drawing lessons from successful examples in jurisdictions like California and London, which have explicitly targeted low-income and renter communities15.
Charging Infrastructure Requirements: Gap Analysis and Benchmarking
Current and Required Charging Stock
Jersey currently (mid-2025) has over 100 public charging points, comfortably ahead of the UK per-capita average, but still below the density needed to meet best-practice international benchmarks or the projected needs of a mass EV fleet167.
International Benchmarks
· The EU average is approximately 1 public charger for every 13 electric cars, with the Netherlands and Germany performing best.
· China, where home charging is less prevalent, maintains a benchmark of 1 public charger per 10 EVs.
· In mature urban markets (e.g., Oslo, Stockholm), the on-street charger deployment is prioritised in lower-income and higher-density neighborhoods-these cities report a ratio of up to 1 public charger for every 5-7 EVs in key districts, though private charging also contributes.
Notably, international experience indicates that as EV adoption increases, the ideal ratio of EVs to public chargers can rise, provided most users have reliable access to home or workplace charging. For Jersey, the home charging gap (due to housing stock) means public infrastructure must shoulder a heavier load.
Jersey's Projected Infrastructure Gap
Given Jersey's goal of increasing the EV fleet by tens of thousands (from less than 2,000 today to 10,000-18,000 by 2030), the current pace of charging infrastructure deployment is inadequate.
Key considerations:
· A minimum ratio of 1 charger per 10 EVs is considered best practice where home charging is limited, which Jersey must adopt due to its housing mix.
· Additional load on the grid: Each new rapid/fast charging point requires upgrades not only in street infrastructure but in grid capacity, metering, and user support, sometimes necessitating months of lead time.
· Deployment constraint: Installation is most feasible in public, workplace, or communal car parks, but expensive and logistically complicated for on-street retrofits in historic or high-density areas.
Table: Estimated Annual Additional Public Charging Points Required in Jersey (2025-2030)
|
Year |
Projected EV Fleet Size |
Required Public Chargers (1:10 ratio) |
Existing Chargers |
Additional Chargers Needed This Year |
Cumulative Additional Chargers (from 2025) |
|
2025 |
2,000 |
200 |
110 |
90 |
90 |
|
2026 |
3,500 |
350 |
140 |
110 |
200 |
|
2027 |
5,500 |
550 |
180 |
200 |
400 |
|
2028 |
8,000 |
800 |
230 |
250 |
650 |
|
2029 |
12,000 |
1,200 |
280 |
320 |
970 |
|
2030 |
18,000 |
1,800 |
320 |
380 |
1,350 |
Notes:
· Projected EV fleet: Conservative, based on accelerated policy support, but still well below Jersey’s 67% “all vehicles decarbonised” aspiration.
· Existing chargers: Assumes current stock plus ongoing growth at observed average rates (approx. 15% pa without large step change).
· Additional chargers/year: Net new points needed to maintain adequate coverage, factoring in best-practice international user experience.
To close the gap, Jersey would need to install approximately 200-400 new public charging points annually through the rest of the decade-about 2-3 times faster than the current rate, with a focus on inclusive, on-street, or curbside locations.
Fast charger vs. slow charger mix: At least 40% of new points should be “rapid” (22kW+), with the remainder a mixture suitable for overnight/commuter use.
Technical Standards and Charging Speeds
· Level 2 Charging (7-22 kW): Suited to most daily needs, especially for overnight charging or long-dwell public parking.
· Rapid Charging (50 kW+): Essential for those unable to charge at home, for fleet/taxi use, and for high-throughput public locations.
· Ultra-rapid Charging (150 kW+): Growing in importance as the fleet modernises, but imposes high grid costs. Recent technical innovations (e.g. liquid-cooled cables, V2G integration) could speed up mass charging for short residential stopovers, but will require both up-front investment and regulatory oversight1718.
Charging infrastructure for multi-unit and rental-housing residents should be prioritised in any public or subsidised program, drawing on global lessons regarding technical and billing interoperability, shared metering solutions, and the need for integration with renewable grid management.
Environmental and Air Quality Effects by 2030
If Jersey is able to sustain its petrol car sale ban-but is hampered by slow infrastructure rollout-the environmental benefits of electrification will be partial, uneven, and delayed.
· Net emissions from transport will fall, but not by 67% as targeted: the most likely trajectory based on current trends is closer to a 20-30% reduction by 2030, arising from retirement of older ICE vehicles, some degree of modal shift (to walking/cycling), and the incremental increase in EV fleet share.
· Local air quality improvements will concentrate in higher-uptake (affluent) neighborhoods, while densely populated urban and rental districts could lag behind, missing out on health and environmental gains.
· Lifecycle emissions and grid impacts will need management, but Jersey’s low-carbon grid (with significant nuclear and imported renewables) ensures that EV electrification supplies a cleaner alternative to petrol/diesel in almost all usage cases3.
Policy Implications and Government Plans
Strategic and Tactical Recommendations
1. Accelerated, Equitable Infrastructure Investment:
· Government must triple the rate of new public/curbside charger installation, prioritising renters, high-density housing, and on-street locations19.
· Encourage or mandate installation of shared chargers in rental and multi-unit buildings, with public-private funding mechanisms and bulk grid upgrades.
· Adopt lessons from international model ordinances (see New Jersey, London, Amsterdam) for “EV Ready” streets, parking minimums, and landlord incentives2021.
2. Targeted Socioeconomic Supports:
· Reintroduce tiered subsidies for EV purchase and charger installation, focusing on low-income households and renters15.
· Launch a public education and engagement campaign, especially in disadvantaged communities, with focus on practicalities, cost savings, and access options.
· Remove fiscal/regulatory barriers to second-hand EV uptake and facilitate scrappage incentives that benefit lower-income groups, not just early adopters.
3. Policy Integration and Long-Term Planning:
· Integrate EV infrastructure planning with broader investments in affordable housing, public transport, and climate adaptation (leveraging the new Jersey Capital Investment Fund for multi-sector impact)22.
· Publish transparent, annual progress metrics for fleet transformation, public charger deployment, user satisfaction (by income and tenure), and air quality.
· Ensure regulatory consistency: maintain stable, predictable policy signals to avoid investor and consumer hesitancy.
4. Innovation and Technical Adaptation:
· Invest in pilot curbside or streetlight charging projects in St Helier and suburbs, using international and UK/EU technology partners.
· Trial dynamic pricing, smart grid management, and V2G opportunities with local energy suppliers to optimise user cost savings and grid load.
International Comparisons and Lessons
UK and Northern European cities prove that with government and utility buy-in, the obstacles of on-street and rental EV charging can be overcome-using a blend of regulatory mandates, fiscal support, unified technical standards, and forward-looking city planning4.
Key takeaways:
· Rapid, public-led charging expansion is essential before mass market demand arrives, not after.
· Market-driven deployment alone will not solve equity gaps; government must actively target underserved and lower-income areas, even if this requires cross-subsidisation or targeted levies.
· Close, continuous user engagement and public reporting helps maintain trust and signals real progress.
Conclusion
Jersey’s commitment to decarbonising its road transport sector is far-reaching, but without a radical acceleration and democratisation of EV charging infrastructure, the transition risks perpetuating profound social, geographic, and economic inequalities. The most vulnerable road users-renters, low-income families, and those reliant on on-street parking-stand to lose out not only on environmental and financial benefits, but also on basic mobility and economic opportunity.
The solution requires a coordinated response: investments in inclusive infrastructure, equitable policy support, and integration of climate justice principles into both transport and housing strategies. If these conditions are met, Jersey can achieve an EV transition that is both environmentally effective and socially just. If not, the island faces a future in which the advantages of cleaner transport accrue only to the few, leaving too many behind.
References (26)
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10. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1mn47m7973o. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1mn47m7973o
11. https://www.citizensadvice.je/parking-scratch-cards-season-tickets/. https://www.citizensadvice.je/parking-scratch-cards-season-tickets/
13. https://www.nj.gov/dca/dlps/home/modelEVordinance.shtml. https://www.nj.gov/dca/dlps/home/modelEVordinance.shtml
14. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cmselect/cmpubacc/512/report.html. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cmselect/cmpubacc/512/report.html
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18. https://azadtechhub.com/ev-charger-load-calculation-a-comprehensive-guide/. https://azadtechhub.com/ev-charger-load-calculation-a-comprehensive-guide/
19. https://sepapower.org/knowledge/disparities-in-residential-charging-access/. https://sepapower.org/knowledge/disparities-in-residential-charging-access/
20. https://legalclarity.org/nj-electric-vehicle-charging-station-laws-and-regulations/. https://legalclarity.org/nj-electric-vehicle-charging-station-laws-and-regulations/
21. https://fleetworld.co.uk/mayor-calls-for-faster-ev-charging-rollout-nationally-as-london-gets-80-new-rapid-bays/. https://fleetworld.co.uk/mayor-calls-for-faster-ev-charging-rollout-nationally-as-london-gets-80-new-rapid-bays/
4. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-charging. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-charging
5. https://www.evolve.je/news/a-network-with-100-charge-points/. https://www.evolve.je/news/a-network-with-100-charge-points/
7. https://www.gov.je/travel/motoring/parking/pages/electriccarschargingpoints.aspx. https://www.gov.je/travel/motoring/parking/pages/electriccarschargingpoints.aspx
8. https://www.jec.co.uk/for-home/electric-transport/charging/. https://www.jec.co.uk/for-home/electric-transport/charging/
9. https://opendata.gov.je/dataset/income-distribution-survey. https://opendata.gov.je/dataset/income-distribution-survey
12. https://www.gov.je/Benefits/Grants/Environmental/Pages/ElectricChargerIncentive.aspx. https://www.gov.je/Benefits/Grants/Environmental/Pages/ElectricChargerIncentive.aspx
3. https://www.gov.je/environment/climateemergency/tacklingtransport/pages/electricvehicles.aspx. https://www.gov.je/environment/climateemergency/tacklingtransport/pages/electricvehicles.aspx
1. https://jerseyeveningpost.com/motoring/2023/07/25/2030-ban-on-new-petrol-car-sales-is-immovable-insists-gove/. https://jerseyeveningpost.com/motoring/2023/07/25/2030-ban-on-new-petrol-car-sales-is-immovable-insists-gove/
2. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/phasing-out-the-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-2030-and-support-for-zero-emission-vehicle-zev-transition. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/phasing-out-the-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-2030-and-support-for-zero-emission-vehicle-zev-transition
22. https://www.gov.je/News/2025/Pages/InvestingInJerseyProgramme.aspx. https://www.gov.je/news/2025/pages/InvestingInJerseyProgramme.aspx
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