Population: Fudging the Issue

http://www.statesassembly.gov.je/documents/questions/14254-48338-21102008.htm

I notice that Geoff Southern asked a question about population: "Does the Chief Minister accept, in the light of recent population, immigration and job growth figures that one of the first tasks of a new Council of Ministers will be to bring to the Assembly a policy for controlling population and, if not, why not?"

After a lot of waffle about "Keeping Jersey Special", and the success in the performance of the economy, the bottom line answer was as follows:

In its 'Keeping Jersey Special' report, published in July 2008, the current Council of Ministers identified that meeting the challenge of the ageing population whilst maintaining the Island as a successful and wonderful place to live will require the right balance between social, economic and environmental policies.

Based on detailed analysis and consultation with the public, the report concluded that, whilst it is possible to combine the above policies to reach a sustainable path to meet the challenges ahead, this is unlikely to be achieved without some level of inward migration.

So in other words, a vague generality - "some level of inward migration". One of the Council of Ministers who was re-elected was Philip Ozouf, and his elect site is almost as uninformative.

Q: Should there be a limit on the population of Jersey? If so, what?

A: Yes. The best way to control population is by limiting the number of jobs available. In the past this has been controlled by a combination of the Housing and Regulation of Undertakings Laws. These laws are being re-written into one law and in future will be more effective. In addition, a population register is to be introduced. This will give us better information. The States will debate and set a figure, this has to take account of the fact that the population is ageing. It is important to maintain the ratio of workers to non-workers to keep taxes lower.

http://www.ozouf.je/section/41/index.html

What this reads as saying is (1) I'm not going to give you a figure that I can be held accountable to (2) "maintain the ratio of workers to non-workers" is the key issue in setting and changing any numbers.

Well, not precisely:
- capacity of sewage system
- capacity of reservoirs (and usuage)
- maximum load possible on electricty cabling infrastructure
and any other infrastructure matters

These, if I am not mistaken, are better indicators of the ceiling for population, and it is about time that figures were calculated back from these, rather than simply looking at jobs and the ageing population.