I've done a few calculations based on the following.
a) Fewer candidates that were "opposition" (however loosely defined)
b) Rather than votes being split, I have allocated these on a proportional basis to the candidates, having taken some out.
If we take Le Clercq, Wimberley, Macon, Perkins, Forskitt, Palmer out:
This gives an interesting hypothetical scenario:
a) Fewer candidates that were "opposition" (however loosely defined)
b) Rather than votes being split, I have allocated these on a proportional basis to the candidates, having taken some out.
If we take Le Clercq, Wimberley, Macon, Perkins, Forskitt, Palmer out:
This gives an interesting hypothetical scenario:
| Candidate | Votes | |
| Le Marquand | 14238 | |
| Breckon | 10273 | |
| Maclean | 9094 | |
| Routier | 8775 | |
| Ozouf | 8712 | |
| Ferguson | 8546 | |
| Southern | 7194 | |
| Higgins | 6979 | |
| Vibert | 6098 | |
| Tadier | 5011 | 9380 |
| Pitman | 4931 | 9231 |
| Troy | 3927 | 7351 |
| Le Clercq | 3597 | 0 |
| Wimberley | 3458 | 0 |
| Macon | 3130 | 0 |
| Le Cornu | 3074 | 5754 |
| Perkins | 2768 | 0 |
| Forskitt | 1932 | 0 |
| Palmer | 1538 | 0 |
| Walsh | 1210 | 2265 |
| Pashley | 682 | 1277 |
Of course this is "what if?" and pure speculation. But it is interesting, none the less.
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5 comments:
Hi Tony, yes interesting stuff, but I don't think it is realistic to think there would be no 'green/ environmental' candidate. The population growth /Image 2035 was a red rag to all of us. In the event there was plenty of back-pedalling and policy revision by Mclean et al who suddenly discovered population caps half way through the hustings.
Because the greens did not do so well, my model would need a lot more other people to drop out before they could do better. That below has just Daniel standing, and no Troy.
Tadier 5011 13151
Pitman 4931 0
Troy 3927 0
Le Clercq 3597 0
Wimberley 3458 9075
Macon 3130 0
Le Cornu 3074 8067
Perkins 2768 0
Forskitt 1932 0
Palmer 1538 0
Walsh 1210 3175
Pashley 682 1790
I think - following Guy de Faye's poor Senatorial showing last time - that Troy would still be able to keep his Deputy position.
mmmm not sure all this quite makes sense! Surely many people who voted for the 'progressives' would likewise vote for other progressives and not the 'establishment'... You can't really just ship these votes on to other people or other people they have already voted for.
Not sure my dad would have got many more votes if the other greens hadn't stood - you could also argue that it helped build up his campaign. Bit surprised actually that he came near the top of the progressive bunch - maybe the name wimberley resonates both with an older generation with fond memories of his father, and those who may have heard his name during various recent projects on the island.
PS. Thanks to all who supported him - we'll have to keep working away from the outside.
Point taken, but I'm assuming the total votes for the "progressives" was split among them, and would be more tightly concentrated if there were fewer of them. If there were only 6 progressives, it wouldn't make sense, but there were around 12 non-establishment candidates (of various colours, some wonderful rosettes, - I loved the lady who dressed in green at Nick Palmer's table at the hotel!)
In that sense it does make sense to collate the votes. For example, I didn't vote for Jeremy, because I had 6 others I was committed to, my son did vote for Jeremy, and not one of the other 6.
I have also assumed that the lower ranked vote getters took votes - unintentionally like that - from the high ranked ones. I think that is a fair assumption.
That was no lady, that was my wife!
Actually, she wasn't but I've always wanted to say that - my wife was in a purple top.
BTW, I suspect that green voters would have voted for several greens, if not for all, because we need a green bloc vote. The disparity between our scores was probably entirely down to the amount of publicity and leafletting we did. Me virtually none, Mark a fair bit, Daniel lots.
Not sure how Chris "Concern" Perkins fits into this though. I actually wonder if the hustings made much difference at all to the vote?
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