Time to Consult the Entrails again!

I've been considering how much you can extrapolate from the Senatorial Elections to the Deputies. I don't think it can easily be done, as they are very much a different kind of ball game, and the most one could suggest - as a rule of thumb - would be that people who did well in a district - e.g. Geoff Southern in the St Helier areas, will be unlikely to do badly in the Deputies in the same locality.
 
However, historical review of past votes suggests that the converse is not the case - Guy de Faye was slaughtered in the Senatorials in 2005, but managed to get quite a creditable lead over the candidate who didn't get in against him. Local issues tend to matter more, and canvassing can be more focused and in a way, smaller scale, more intimate, and usually hustings allow space for longer questions and answers.

People who campaigned on a particular platform in the Senators will probably stand a better chance (1) because they are already familiar faces (2) because they will have more time to get across to the voter than the ridiculous time (3) there are a lot fewer candidates.
 
There is also less of a split vote, because either people stand as independent, or the banner is not so high profile anyway, and there will be unlikely to be former Time4Change, JDA, or 20-20 candidates in the same areas against each other. In fact, there may be more "establishment" type candidates, so the split vote will work against sitting establishment candidates, unlike the Senatorials.
 
The local connection also plays a propaganda part, of course, any membership of honorary police, or procurer du bien public etc etc gets some votes by default from the parish connection. Notice how both candidates for Constable in St Lawrence trumpeted their connections there!
 
St Brelade No 2 will be interesting, as it has Sean Power - definitely standing, and likely to get in on the "I hammered Harcourt" banner - Martha Bernstein, Mr Bryans, Montfort, and possibly Peter Troy. From what he has said in the JEP, Mr Bryans is a sound-bite junkie ("proven track record", "safe pair of hands"), and I seem to remember him from Mensa mag editing days, so Peter Troy will have a rival there!.
 
Historically, I remember there was something of a sea change quite a while back, when Simon Crowcroft, and I think Imogen Nichols and various others (all non-establishment) all got in at one Deputies election, seeing off quite a lot of the "old guard", especially in St Helier and St Saviour. This was 1996, and it saw popular non-establishment types (back then they were - anyway!) such as:

Senator Corrie Stein
Senator Wendy Kinnard
Senator Nigel Quérée

Deputy Jerry Dorey
Deputy Paul Le Claire
Deputy Simon Crowcroft
Deputy Shirley Baudains
Deputy Gerard Baudains
Deputy Imogen Nicholls
Deputy Phil Rondel
Deputy Robert Duhamel
Deputy Alan Breckon
and Deputy Ted Vibert in 1999