Friday, 17 October 2008

GST and Spin

I've seen a number of reports from various people in the media that this election has delivered its verdict on GST. This is normally from those elected who voted for GST, or their supporters, or other States members who voted for GST.

The reason for this argument is simple: the pro-GST candidates - Philip Ozouf, Alan Maclean, Sarah Ferguson, Paul Routier got in, while their opponents did not.  And yet...

a) Comparing like for like in votes, the pro-GST candidates all polled significantly less than at the last election. On a percentage swing basis:

Philip Ozouf - down 40%
Mike Vibert - down 42%
Paul Routier - down 25%

and compared to last time

Geoff Southern  - up 52%

b) The top placed candidates have both stated or voted against GST on "essentials".

Alan Breckon's voting record speaks for itself.

Ian Le Marquand examined options, came to the conclusion (on his manifesto) that GST was probably the best option ("the lessor of evils"), but stated quite clearly:

My position is that GST is probably the least of three evils as compared with a change to the 20% rate or a wages tax.
However, I would have opposed and intend to oppose its imposition upon essentials such as food, drinks, children's clothing and utility and heating bills for homes. I also believe that, if revenues from other sources rise in order to allow this, GST should be phased out as soon as possible.

The main problem with GST is that although provision has been made for those on income support, very little has been done for the lower paid who are above the income support level. The effect of this has been to expand the poverty trap, with little or no incentive for low paid workers with families to go out to work.  The timing and method of the introduction of GST came at the worst possible time because of the recent increases in food and fuel prices. The June 2008 Cost of Living figures showed that during the last year food had increased in price by 13% and fuel and light by 26%. The percentage increase in the Cost of Living Index due to GST is put at 1.9%.

As Ian Le Marquand romped home streets ahead of the other candidates, and Alan Breckon came second, is the election really a vote of confidence in GST?
 

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